Rosenthal on Angels, Qualifying Offers, Drew, Jays, Putz

[gotbeer]

Rosenthal on Angels, Qualifying Offers, Drew, Jays, Putz

 

 

The Angels are likely to eclipse the $189MM luxury-tax threshold eventually, despite their efforts to avoid doing so this offseason, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. Sources tell the columnist that the Angels have between $13MM and $15MM of space left beneath the cap, figures that are much lower than what will be required to sign Masahiro Tanaka. However, extending Mike Trout at, say, $300MM over 10 years would make it difficult to avoid surpassing the threshold anyway, so the Angels may as well do so now, Rosenthal surmises.

 

 

If this is the case.  Might as well just have offered Jerome and Vargas offers.  

[Second Base]

Rosenthal may have looked at the Angels financed for literally 5 seconds before writing the article, which is his usual MO.  The only National Media outlet I'd trust 100% when it comes to the Angels in Tim Brown over at Yahoo.

 

Sure, 10/300 may be required for Trout, if he's even willing to accept such an extension (he may want to play closer to home).  But Wells coming off the payroll next season frees up 21 million.  Two years after that, Wilson and Weav's deals expire, freeing up over 30 million.  Two years after that, Hamilton's 25 million are off the books. 

 

Will the Angels surpass the limit?  Sure, due to inflation, they are just as likely as any other team.  But will they be forced to because of the expense of current contracts as Rosenthal eludes to?  Absolutely not.

 

Rosenthal's a clown. 

[Docwaukee]

I am not sure why people assume that the Trout extension has to count for 2014.  If he signs the extension after the start of the season and it's for 2015 and beyond, then it won't.  At least that's my understanding. 

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

Rosenthal may have looked at the Angels financed for literally 5 seconds before writing the article, which is his usual MO.  The only National Media outlet I'd trust 100% when it comes to the Angels in Tim Brown over at Yahoo.

 

Sure, 10/300 may be required for Trout, if he's even willing to accept such an extension (he may want to play closer to home).  But Wells coming off the payroll next season frees up 21 million.  Two years after that, Wilson and Weav's deals expire, freeing up over 30 million.  Two years after that, Hamilton's 25 million are off the books. 

 

Will the Angels surpass the limit?  Sure, due to inflation, they are just as likely as any other team.  But will they be forced to because of the expense of current contracts as Rosenthal eludes to?  Absolutely not.

 

Rosenthal's a clown. 

Did you read the article or did you just read the quote? He talked about Wells and Blanton's contract coming off the books after this year.

 

Future years, though, could be a problem, as pointed out by monkeywithahalo.com. As theYankees can attest, a team pays a 30 percent tax the second time it exceeds the threshold, a 40 percent tax the third time and a 50 percent tax the fourth time.

The Angels will shed two major tax commitments after this season — $18.6 million to outfielderVernon Wells and $7.5 million to right-hander Joe Blanton. But the math will get tricky if the team signs outfielder Mike Trout to a contract extension.

A 10-year, $300 million deal for Trout — and we're just throwing that number out there — would count $30 million per season against the threshold. Albert Pujols already counts for $24 million per season through 2021 and Josh Hamilton $25 million per season through '17.

So if the Angels gave Trout $300 million, they would have three players absorb more than 40 percent of their luxury-tax payroll  for the next three seasons. Throw in Tanaka at $20 million-plus per season, and that's four players absorbing more than 50 percent of the luxury-tax number.......

[Docwaukee]

They could clear additional space by trading Howie, Aybar and Ianetta.  That's an additional 22mil. 

 

Worst case scenario is that they hover just below playoff contention and keep the team intact yet miss the playoffs.  Death by 1000 cuts.   

[Brent Maguire]

This isn't surprising.

If Arte is still interested in this team winning, he's going to cross over the 189 figure. Staying under would mean they are content with this rotation and bullpen, which shouldn't be the case.

I'd still like to see Tanaka signed, if not then sign Capuano/Maholm and Balfour.

[Blarg]

I don't think Trout's extension is going to reach the 10/$300 territory. Since they have club control for fours year the buyout of arbitration years should be at a discounted rate. I also don't think the Angels will talk extended contract until next off season.

[monkeywithahalo]

If the Angels go over the tax line this year, it actually makes more sense to have Trout sign an extension before 2014 starts. That would actually lower his luxury tax number versus if he signed it after the season started. Getting his cheap 2014 salary to drag down the average will help th get under the tax line in 2015 and avoid the harsher penalty.

[Angel Oracle]

I can't see a 22/23 year-old getting $30 million AAV for 10 years.

More likely, he signs for a number of seasons that allows him one more big contract, hence I am in agreement with those predicting 7-8 years for about $22 million AAV. He knows then that he can still test FA again at age 30/31 for one more big contract.

[Angel Oracle]

Even going say $20 million over for a second season, third season, or even fourth season isn't disastrous.

Penalty for the first year = $2 million

Penalty for the second year = $6 million

Penalty for the third year = $8 million

Penalty for the fourth year = $10 million

Peanuts, given what they wasted on Mr. Pop-Up Wells!

Plus, assuming Kendrick is dealt after 2014, that's a total of $34 million AAV no longer on the books between Wells, Blanton, and Kendrick, thus likely making this a moot point anyway even if Tanaka signs and Trout gets $22 million AAV starting in 2015. If they then go over the tax threshold in 2015 and beyond, it won't be by very much.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Angel Oracle

[YouthofToday]

He will probably get roughly $60 million through his arbitration years. So one starts at 4/$60. If the final deal was 10/$300 that means his free market AAV would be $40 million. That's crazy.

The only deal that makes sense for the Angels, considering where they are at with the CBE, is an insanely long deal (say 18 years).

[YouthofToday]

I can't see a 22/23 year-old getting $30 million AAV for 10 years.

More likely, he signs for a number of seasons that allows him one more big contract, hence I am in agreement with those predicting 7-8 years for about $22 million AAV. He knows then that he can still test FA again at age 30/31 for one more big contract.

So basically 7/$152? If the deal included the 2014 season his free agent AAV would be roughly $31 million.

[Angelsjunky]

I think the Trout extension will end up being 7-8 years, depending upon whether it includes 2014 or not. As someone mentioned, that just makes the most sense for Trout because then he can be get a second huge contract at age 30. Or 10 years with a play opt out after 8.

 

As for the total, about this:

 

2014 (pre-arb): $5M

2015 (arb 1): $10M

2016 (arb 2): $15M

2017 (arb 3): $20M

2018 (FA): $25M

2019 (FA): $30M

2020 (FA): $35M

2021 (FA): $35M (after which there's a player opt-out clause)

2022 (FA): $35M

2023 (FA): $35M

 

That's either 8/$175M or 10/$245M. Seems to make sense for both Trout and the Angels.

 

10/$300M seems ludicrous if we're including four years of club control. That makes more sense if he goes to free agency after 2017.

[floplag]

Rosenthal made some good points and the logic isnt bad, clearly not 100 up on the angels but still...

I just wish i felt better about the players that we would be signing that would push us over that threshold.... makes the deals look even worse... unless we assume them to be part of Trout, lol

[Erick McClendon]

Doubt that trout would give up 3 FA years. Maybe 1 so a 125 million for 5 year deal might work, but no way he gives up 3. there are no players i can think of with his numbers that would or have done that...

[Docwaukee]

Doubt that trout would give up 3 FA years. Maybe 1 so a 125 million for 5 year deal might work, but no way he gives up 3. there are no players i can think of with his numbers that would or have done that...

there are no players with his numbers.  the halos would be completely retarded to do that.  from now thru the end of arb he's gonna cost about 60mil so we have him at 4/60.  That one year of free agency costs the halos 65mil. 

[Docwaukee]

I think keeping him thru the 2021 season is reasonable.  So he would be a FA prior to his 30 yo season and would get a monster contract. 

[floplag]

bottom line is does he want to be here long term... no amount of money is going to change that if he doesnt.  i would hope by now that ownership has inquired about the long term intent considering he is an east coast guy when not in season... i dont know how that will afect the long term plans but i hope ownership has some ideas

if he doenst plan to stay long term then we cannot miss out on what might be the trade of the century... though i hope it doesnt come to that

[Splint7438]

I think this shows how stupid the luxury tax really is. T doesn't allow teams to be loyal to players and stay competitive over the long haul. Teams have to choose between the two. The escalating penalties are punative and are aimed at selected teams. Salary numbers are not indexed for the cost of living in relation to where the player makes his money. For instance a player working and living in NYC making a million dollars a year is making considerably less than the same salary if he were playing in Texas. I am all for eliminating cap all together and would lean more to a minimum salary and non guaranteed contracts.

[nando714]

Trout will be a Phillie

He won't sign here

[Docwaukee]

yeah.  the CBT needs to be more specific and detailed like in the NBA.  It would certainly be a lot more complicated with so many players and minor league teams to boot.  I like the idea of a soft cap with exceptions for player retention.  The draft compensation rules are silly as well.  Not saying there shouldn't be comps, but the way it is now is lame. 

 

Being able to trade draft picks.  Sign and trades.  Cap exceptions.  A more formal international system that relates to all players.  Yes that would be complex, but I think it could make the game more fun and create some interesting nuances and undervalued areas for smaller market teams to exploit. 

[nikkachez]

The only thing I could see helping the Angels stay under the threshold is a trade of Howie, Aybar, or Iannetta which I would not agree with right now. As much as it pains me to say I could see Howie traded next year to help the Halos stay underneath the threshold with the depth we have at second (Green, Yarbrough, Lindsey.) Trading Howie and Iannetta would free up about close to $15 million dollars along with Wells and Blanton coming off the books. Man, the Angels have really forced themselves into a corner

[Brent Maguire]

Yeah trading Howie next offseason or mid season would make sense if the Angels weren't playing well. It also gives Lindsey time to develop a little bit more.

[nikkachez]

Exactly although I want to see Howie stay in an Angels uniform 

[gotbeer]

I think this shows how stupid the luxury tax really is. T doesn't allow teams to be loyal to players and stay competitive over the long haul. Teams have to choose between the two. The escalating penalties are punative and are aimed at selected teams. Salary numbers are not indexed for the cost of living in relation to where the player makes his money. For instance a player working and living in NYC making a million dollars a year is making considerably less than the same salary if he were playing in Texas. I am all for eliminating cap all together and would lean more to a minimum salary and non guaranteed contracts.

 

Why is the CBT stupid?  It was our front office that put out stupid money to the top free agents the last 2 years before this.  The CBT is doing exactly what it's intended to do.  Prevent teams from buying up the best free agent every year, without penalty.