Shin-Soo Choo Reaches Seven-Year Deal With Rangers

[St1ck]

Choo only made an out .577 percent of the time last year; .611 percent for his career.

That is really impressive.

He will be 32 in July.

 

 

So he's regressing.  

[Stradling]

You cool paying number three money to a guy that's nowhere near a lock for even 180 innings much less 200? Are you really willing to go as many as 5 years with a guy who's pitched 355 innings the last two years and averaged 152 the last three?

Matt Garza's career 105 ERA+ isn't awful for a 3 -- but his inability to stay healthy should be a concern for any team considering him.

Look into your crystal ball of stats and let me know when the cost of pitching will slow down or lessen. I just don't see it happening. So today he is $14 or $15 million a year, and in the next couple of years he will be $17 million. Sadly that is just the trend of the league and so far it seems to be sustainable. Ervin was a shitty pitcher every other year and he will get damn near $100 million, he will suck every other year, and he will cost a pick.

[Stradling]

So he's regressing.

No, his age is progressing. duh

[Docwaukee]

Shoo is a nice player and certainly makes them better for next year as well as probably the follow 2-3 after that.  He's gonna get on base and that park will help.  It will be interesting to see if he's able to sustain his production from last year or goes back to the previous two years.  At age 31/32 going forward, there is a good chance that 2013 was the best year he will have for the rest of his career.  

 

i was very surprised and how defensive metrics don't like him at all. 

 

I do know that between Hamilton, Ibanez, Choo, Moreland, Fielder and a few others, the last three innings of Ranger/Halo games is gonna be like Yank/Bosox games and take 90 minutes. 

[Inside Pitch]

so their lineup is:

 

Choo RF

Andrus SS

Beltre 3b

Fielder 1b

Rios LF

Moreland/Choice DH

Martin CF

Profar 2b

Soto C

 

Pretty damn strong.  I think the Halos offense is better (potentially), but Rangers pitching is head and shoulders above the Angels. 

 

Doc, I know you're saber inclined -- I don't know what to make of projected WAR, haven't ever really studied it, perhaps you have?  Anyway I found the Steamer projections for Choo compared to what Gentry had given the Rangers in 2013 to be somewhat a surprise when I looked them up a couple weeks ago.

 

 

I'm of the opinion Steamer is completely off and that Choo remains closer to the 5 WAR player he was last year vs the 3.x WAR guy they were projecting him to be.

[sneaky_flute]

I don't really like it. He could have re-signed Jeff Baker + a capable LH platoon bat for 1/4 the cost and used the remaining money to sign Tanaka or something. 

[Docwaukee]

Look into your crystal ball of stats and let me know when the cost of pitching will slow down or lessen. I just don't see it happening. So today he is $14 or $15 million a year, and in the next couple of years he will be $17 million. Sadly that is just the trend of the league and so far it seems to be sustainable. Ervin was a shitty pitcher every other year and he will get damn near $100 million, he will suck every other year, and he will cost a pick.

yeah.  with 1 WAR now costing close to 7 mil, a 2-3 WAR middle to back end starter is worth 15-20mil per. 

 

If you can get Garza at 4/70, then he has a decent chance to be worth what you are paying him.  Still think he's gonna get 5/90 though.  @#%#@%@#^% not getting Anibal Sanchez when we had a chance.  (I'm still not over it)

[jshep]

yeah.  with 1 WAR now costing close to 7 mil, a 2-3 WAR middle to back end starter is worth 15-20mil per. 

 

If you can get Garza at 4/70, then he has a decent chance to be worth what you are paying him.  Still think he's gonna get 5/90 though.  @#%#@%@#^% not getting Anibal Sanchez when we had a chance.  (I'm still not over it)

 

ugh, ya.

[Stradling]

If we would have signed Sanchez last year, we could have signed Choo this year.

[bloodbrother]

Seriously. Was hoping they'd have just focused on him since Greinke was gonna get overpriced. Using that money on another hitter over a pitcher was brutal

[AngelStew43]

We will have plenty of LHP to throw at him.

[Docwaukee]

Doc, I know you're saber inclined -- I don't know what to make of projected WAR, haven't ever really studied it, perhaps you have?  Anyway I found the Steamer projections for Choo compared to what Gentry had given the Rangers in 2013 to be somewhat a surprise when I looked them up a couple weeks ago.

 

 

I'm of the opinion Steamer is completely off and that Choo remains closer to the 5 WAR player he was last year vs the 3.x WAR guy they were projecting him to be.

 

to me, WAR projections (from Steamer in particular) are somewhat plug and play in that it seems to regress the players career to it's mean and then you make some adjustments for age ie mild improvement or the opposite, and playing time. 

 

Choo has lost a fair amount of value from defensive metrics the last few year while that is where gentry gets most of his.  Because those metrics aren't generally as accurate, predicting them to be either very high or very low will just further decrease the accuracy of the projection imo.  ie, they are even less accurate on the extremes. 

 

Steamer seems to be better at pitching projections than most where as their position player values seem to fall short a bit.  The oliver projections on fangraphs is better for younger position players in general. 

[Inside Pitch]

to me, WAR projections (from Steamer in particular) are somewhat plug and play in that it seems to regress the players career to it's mean and then you make some adjustments for age ie mild improvement or the opposite, and playing time. 

 

Choo has lost a fair amount of value from defensive metrics the last few year while that is where gentry gets most of his.  Because those metrics aren't generally as accurate, predicting them to be either very high or very low will just further decrease the accuracy of the projection imo.  ie, they are even less accurate on the extremes. 

 

Steamer seems to be better at pitching projections than most where as their position player values seem to fall short a bit.  The oliver projections on fangraphs is better for younger position players in general. 

 

 

Nice, I see it the same way...   I do think moving him to CF last year was asking a lot of Choo and impacted his defensive numbers.  Moving back to a corner spot I think he scores better, or rather, doesn't show the same rate of decline as he has in recent seasons.

 

I use ZIPS for hitters more often than the other systems.

[Inside Pitch]

Look into your crystal ball of stats and let me know when the cost of pitching will slow down or lessen. I just don't see it happening. So today he is $14 or $15 million a year, and in the next couple of years he will be $17 million. Sadly that is just the trend of the league and so far it seems to be sustainable. Ervin was a shitty pitcher every other year and he will get damn near $100 million, he will suck every other year, and he will cost a pick.

 

Cute, I like the comment about crystal balls.  I realize that stats may seem like magic, but they really aren't.

 

You missed it in your rush to be cheeky, but my concerns are entirely about potential health risks.   So, the question stands.  Are you willing to go five years on a guy that has a history of arm trouble??  I've already gone on record, I'd rather they go cheap than take that added risk and being stuck with yet another bad contract.  

 

I've always considered a number 3 pitcher to be a better than league average guy that's a lock for 200 innings.  Just don't consider Garza a three based on health issues.

 

Edited December 21, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Erick McClendon]

Texas was better than the Halos before making this move and while Choo is a good player(who kills the Angels), I don't think this is a good signing by Texas. Lots of years and money for a player like Choo IMO. Makes them better this year and probably next, but I'd be worried about the last 4 or so years of that deal

 

 

Dont think texas was worried about being better than the Angels. they wanna be better than Oakland and Detroit etc. its a move they needed to make to maximize they chances while guys like Darvish/Fielder and Beltre are still good players..Texas still have a good farm system but I think it makes sense to go for it the next few years

Edited December 21, 2013 by Aggie E

[Lhalo]

Heyman's on MLB Network right now saying Tex has a great rapport with Boras. Apparently Daniels and Washington both flew out to Newport to meet with Choo before the winter meetings.

 

FWIW

[Docwaukee]

Seriously. Was hoping they'd have just focused on him since Greinke was gonna get overpriced. Using that money on another hitter over a pitcher was brutal

I hate doing this because what's past is past, but Sanchez, Lohse, Hunter cost about the same as Hamilton, Blanton, Hanson.  (AAV wise)

Sanchez 16, Hunter 13, Lohse 11

Hamilton 25, Blanton 8, Hanson 4

 

I just threw up into my nose a bit. 

[Redondo]

Well that sucks.

 

+1

 

That really sucks, ugh

[Inside Pitch]

Dont think texas was worried about being better than the Angels. they wanna be better than Oakland and Detroit etc. its a move they needed to make to maximize they chances while guys like Darvish/Fielder and Beltre are still good players..Texas still have a good farm system but I think it makes sense to go for it the next few years

 

Lots of solid teams in the AL..   Choo I would imagine moves the Rangers to the top of a lot of the projected standings from the various sites.

 

This was before Choo.... http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#AL-W, Fangraphs had a three way tie.

[bloodbrother]

Dont think texas was worried about being better than the Angels. they wanna be better than Oakland and Detroit etc. its a move they needed to make to maximize they chances while guys like Darvish/Fielder and Beltre are still good players..Texas still have a good farm system but I think it makes sense to go for it the next few years

 

Never said that. Was just saying as a Halos fan I'm not too upset over this considering Texas was already better than the Angels before it and are obviously even better now.

 

I'm moreso concerned with what the Halos are doing for the present and future and hoping they aren't making decisions as a direct response to what Texas/Oakland/Seattle, etc are doing. I just want them to replenish the farm and make wiser decisions. Trumbo trade was a good start IMO.

[jshep]

 

Bob NightengaleVerified account ‏@BNightengale

The #Mariners, it would seem, are now in prime position to sign Nelson Cruz with Choo going to Texas

 

Well if nothing else, hopefully the Mariners give him crazy money considering he's not especially good. Of course the dude could probably hit .200 in a season and still hit .600 with 20 HRs against us.

Edited December 21, 2013 by jshep

[fan_since79]

&%@#^%

 

LOL.

 

Yes, that's the appropriate reaction.

[Marsaka]

Crap. Rangers are looking really good on paper right now.

Hopefully the Angels follow up by signing Tanaka.

 

Has it not been said a million times that his japanese team wont post him?  why do i keep reading these posts.

[Marsaka]

dont worry all we made the rangers worse when we stole hamilton away from them last year.  now they have a much worse player in choo for a lot cheaper.

[sneaky_flute]

Out of curiosity, where are people getting salary per WAR values?