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Posted

I've grown weary and lack confidence in projections. Teams that are solid on paper fail or succeed, teams that were dogshit on paper win their division and get to the playoffs.

 

Going way back, none of the pundits picked the 2002 club to win the AL West. More recently, nobody picked the A's to win the division the past two years, especially in 2012.

Posted

Tanaka makes us a legit contender. Garza makes us much better but we're still looking at around 89-90 wins. I think Tanaka puts us around 91-92 wins.

You think getting Tanaka only makes us 3 wins better than getting Garza?

Posted

You guys are high.  This team has A LOT more question marks than a #3 SP.  Deep playoff run? hahahaha

I think we can use another reliever as well, but I do agree with flop that last year was just a disaster and we should rebound nicely even as the team stands.

Posted

one step at a time.  How about making the playoffs first?  Signing Tanaka would make them contenders in the AL West on paper, but there are still so many variables . . .

Posted

one step at a time.  How about making the playoffs first?  Signing Tanaka would make them contenders in the AL West on paper, but there are still so many variables . . .

Variables? Do you mean the other teams, our own roster, or both?

Posted

Without another SP, this team is a third or fourth place team. With a Tanaka or Garza (preferably Tanaka), it's a second or third place team. Good enough to compete for a wild card, but probably not good enough to win the division.

Posted

Tanaka makes us a legit contender. Garza makes us much better but we're still looking at around 89-90 wins. I think Tanaka puts us around 91-92 wins.

 

90 wins? based on what?

Posted

The Angels are still having to bank on a lot of luck but I like their chances better with a 1-2-3 of Weaver, Wilson, Garza/Tanaka. Given how last year went 2014 HAS to go better.

Posted (edited)

Without another SP, this team is a third or fourth place team. With a Tanaka or Garza (preferably Tanaka), it's a second or third place team. Good enough to compete for a wild card, but probably not good enough to win the division.

Honestly, can you really say that with certainty? There's just so many things that could go right or could go wrong with this team. They'll probably be the most questionable team of 2014. They could finish in 4th or 1st.

Edited by Poozy
Posted

The Angels are still having to bank on a lot of luck but I like their chances better with a 1-2-3 of Weaver, Wilson, Garza/Tanaka. Given how last year went 2014 HAS to go better.

If health is luck then I agree with you. But if this team is relatively healthy then this team can win 90 games. My issue is that may not be enough to win the division or even second place. This team really needs to play to its ability against teams like Houston.

Posted

The Angels are still having to bank on a lot of luck but I like their chances better with a 1-2-3 of Weaver, Wilson, Garza/Tanaka. Given how last year went 2014 HAS to go better.

 

I agree with this.  They are banking on luck, rebounds from pujols/hamilton/freese, players living up to their potential - nothing of a sure thing and honestly not very likely.

Posted

Honestly, can you really say that with certainty? There's just some many things that could go right or could go wrong for this team. They'll probably be the most questionable team of 2014. They could be a 4th place team or a 1st place team.

Gut feeling and my own personal analysis. I assume that not everything is going to be as rosy as we want them to be, because injuries happen, and other stuff happens, too. Who foresaw Hamilton being as bad as he was for the first half of last season? There are a lot of unknowns. How will Freese respond to a change of scenery? Will the new arms take a step forward?

 

There are question marks, and not all of them will be answered in the affirmative.

 

Plus, the rest of the division hasn't been sitting on its hands, either. Every team in the division, top to bottom, has improved itself on paper.

Posted

HITTERS

 

Pujols, Kendrick, Aybar, Conger, Ianetta, Hamilton, Trout, Shuck, Romine will likely be repeats on the 2014 opening day roster like they were in 2013.  Of those I expect moderate to significant improvement from Pujols, Conger and Hamilton.  Trout, Shuck and Romine should get a little better just on experience alone.  I expect Kendrick, Aybar and Ianetta to equal their performance.

 

Besides that we've swapped out Callaspo for Freese, Boujos for Calhoun, Trumbo for Ibanez and Harris for Green.  Freese is an obvious upgrade, I think Calhoun is an obvious upgrade (if anything because he is more durable), and Green is an obvious upgrade over Harris.  In fact, the only thing that's downgraded is Ibanez from Trumbo, but I don't even think this is that big of a downgrade.

 

I think we've upgraded quite a bit on the offensive side.

 

STARTING PITCHING

 

Weaver and Wilson are the only returning starters from 2013.  I expect both of them to have similar years again.  Richards, Skaggs, Santiago are MAJOR upgrades over Vargas, Hanson and Blanton.  This move might move us +10 wins alone.  Although Vargas was solid, he was out for over half the year, Blanton and Hanson were pretty much as bad as advertised.

 

BULLPEN

 

Frieri and Burnett appear to be the only returning relievers from 2013.  I expect Frieri to be a little better and Burnett (obviously) to be a lot better.  Joe Smith has replaced Scott Downs and DLR has replaced Mark Lowe.  So far, so good - all in all big upgrades.

 

The last three spots on the bullpen from 2013 are Jepsen, Richards and Williams.  Blanton appears to be replacing Williams (downgrade), and a duo among Salas, Kohn, Moran, Morin, Rapada will likely replace Jepsen and Richards.  Basically whoever replaces Jepsen will likely be an upgrade but whoever replaces Richards may not be (Salas, Kohn, Moran, Morin, Rapada).

 

Bullpen has been upgraded, but Blanton is a downgrade, the Jepsen replacement is an upgrade and the Richards upgrade is unknown.

 

So other than replacing Ibanez with Trumbo, replacing Blanton with Williams and the Richards replacement, I think Jerry's done a terrific job.  If we get Tanaka it's superb.

 

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