How good is Howie Kendrick, really?

[AngelsWin.com]

By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist - 

While I fully agree with the idea that you can't truly define a player solely based upon statistics, and that the general sense one gets from watching a player, day in and day out, is important as well, the "No Respect" thread supports the notion that we really do need statistics to go beyond mere opinion. Statistics aren't absolute, but what they are is objective and give us something beyond our likes and dislikes and subjective impressions to look at.

So I'm going to try to answer the question: How good is Howard Kendrick relative to his peers, that is second basemen? Is he or does he have the potential to be, as edgur1995 suggests, "one of the best 2nd basemen in the game?"

Let's look at some numbers. First of all, Howie's age. He's 30 years old and will be 31 in mid-season of 2014. What this means is that chances are he's not getting any better. He might have another all-star caliber year in him still, and while a small minority of players actually get better in their 30s, it is unlikely that his overall level of performance will be better than what we've already seen. So addressing edgur1995's sentence "in reality HK can be one of the best 2nd basemen in the game," I think at this point we need to look at what he actually is, rather than what we can be.

Howie Kendrick has played 924 games in the majors, hitting .292/.329/.429, a 106 wRC+ and 20.1 fWAR. He has only really had four full-time seasons; he came up mid-way through 2006, was injured in parts of 2007 and 2008, and was sent down to AAA for part of 2009 due to an epic slump. 2010 was the first year that he played more than 105 games in the majors.

His fWAR for the last four years have been 1.8, 5.7, 3.0, and 2.7, or an average of 3.3. 2010 was a struggle both offensively and defensively, while 2011 was his best year by a good margin, at least in terms of fWAR, and he also had a terrific defensive year - but that year looks like an outlier at this point, at least from what we should expect going forward. He's been very consistent over his last two years, slightly better defensively in 2012 and slightly better with the bat in 2013, but I think its safe to say that Howie can be counted on for about 3 fWAR, plus or minus a bit.

What is a 3 fWAR player? Well, remember that 0 WAR is replacement level - meaning a AAA veteran who shouldn't be anything more than a bench player or depth in the minors, or someone who plays if you have no other options. 0-2 WAR players are bench and platoon players and mediocre regulars. 2-3 WAR is an average regular, 3-4 above average, 4-5 a borderline star, 5-6 a star, and 6+ a superstar.

In 2013, there were 204 major league players with 400+ PA (including some pitchers, presumably). Of those, Howie was ranked #98 - so he was better than a bit more than half of what could be roughly considered major league regulars last year.

What about second basemen? Well let's look at the last two years and use 700 PA as a minimum. Howie's WAR over 2012-13 was 5.7, which ranks him #10 out of 32 second basemen with 700+ PA in that span of time. If we up the bar a bit on PA to 1,000, which is about qualifying for the batting title, we get 18 players, among whom Howie is ninth. In other words, his #10 out of 32 rank in in the first list is largely due to playing time; among those with similar playing time, Howie doesn't move up much and is right in the middle of the pack.

Looking at that group of 18, we can see a few sub-groups:

Stars: Robinson Cano (13.7), Ben Zobrist (11.3), Dustin Pedroia (9.8)

Borderline stars: Matt Carpenter (8.5), Jason Kipnis (7.6), Aaron Hill (7.4)

Quality regulars: Brandon Phillips (6.3), Omar Infante (6.0), Howie Kendrick (5.7), Ian Kinsler (5.5), Neil Walker (5.4), Marco Scutaro (4.7), Daniel Murphy (4.3), Dan Uggla (3.9)

Mediocre regulars: Jose Altuve (2.9), Darwin Barney (2.7), Dustin Ackley (1.6), Richie Weeks (0.6)

(Notice how Ian Kinsler has dropped; after a 7.3 WAR season in 2011, he's had two season in a row in the 2.5 to 3 range).

Anyhow, what is clear here are two things:

One, Howie Kendrick is NOT one of the best 2nd basemen in the game. There are six players who are player clearly better, and a couple more who are arguably better.

Two, Howie Kendrick is a good player - if not one of the best second basemen in baseball, certainly better than most.

As for the "future batting champion" label, I think its time to accept him for what he is and isn't. He is a player whose minor league numbers (.360/.403/.569) didn't translate well to the big leagues, but he is still a good player, solidly above average.

In summary, Howie Kendrick is a valuable--but not irreplaceable--player. While we shouldn't "disrespect" him by saying that he has little value, we shouldn't view him falsely and consider him more valuable than he actually is.

How valuable is he? I don't think we can compare players to pitchers in straight up WAR value, but if you look at 3 WAR pitchers you get names like: Rich Porcello, Ricky Nolasco, and Ervin Santana all had exactly 3 WAR in 2013, and that gives us some indication of his trade value, I think.

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[Stradling]

"He sucks"

-Marsaka

[Brent Maguire]

Remember AngelsJunky, the stats don't tell the story with Howie. 

 

If you "watch the game", he actually sucks. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

Remember AngelsJunky, the stats don't tell the story with Howie. 

 

If you "watch the game", he actually sucks. 

 

Since I don't watch any games, I don't share that opinion.

 

(Where is that sarcasm icon when you need it?)

[Brent Maguire]

Since I don't watch any games, I don't share that opinion.

(Where is that sarcasm icon when you need it?)

The sarcasm icon definitely needs to make a comeback.

[Make Angels Great Again]

So, Kendrick is essentially just a couple ticks above average.

[Blarg]

How valuable is Howie? Maybe rate his WAR (which is a flawed stat but your baseline) to others in terms of salary. I think you wil find that for a quality regular and taking into account future contract value for his peers, his replacement cost may seem steep. That possibly he is under paid.

[nikkachez]

I don't think anyone on here believed he was one of the best, but top 10 definitely in a thin position. Also Carpenter is playing third for the Cards next year and Ackley is playing center for Seattle 

[tdawg87]

Howie has been incredibly consistent for his entire career. He's no Cano or Pedroia, but he's on the next tier of players. Valuable guy to have on the team for sure.

[Second Base]

I think this article puts it into perspective really well.  Kendrick is a slightly above average full-time starting 2B who really should've ended up being more.

 

Ignore the future batting champ talk.  His ability to hit for average did not translate from the minors to majors, that happens.  But his skill set says that he should've been so much more.  Kendrick is a strong, semi-fast ball player with a swing that's extremely direct to the ball.  Given his build, it wouldn't have been out of this world for him to have hit 30 HR and steal 15-20 bases a year, but his flaws got in the way of that. 

 

Most every pitcher knows by now that with no strikes or two strikes, Howie will swing at a low and away slider (and miss quite frequently).  This either puts him in the hole or sends him back to the bench prematurely before he can inflict serious damage with his bat.  Had he learned by now to lay off that pitch, his OBP would probably be a hell of a lot higher than .338 (or whatever it is) and he'd probably reach base and have the opportunity to steal and/or score more often.

 

Howie also never truly developed the ability to turn on the ball.  He can really power up in CF and right-CF, but for someone as strong as he is and with as quick of a swing as he has, Kendrick doesn't power up on much on the inner half, which prevents him from inflicting damage even when he manages to lay off the breaking ball away. 

[Bruce Nye]

Why doesn't Howie get more respect?

[Inside Pitch]

 

Ignore the future batting champ talk.  His ability to hit for average did not translate from the minors to majors, that happens.  

 

HK is a career .292 hitter who hit .297 last year Vs. a MLB average of .253.    So, last year Kendrick hit 44 points above the MLB average.  

 

The MLB average was at .275 in Howie's rookie season and has dropped every single year HK has been in the majors.  Maybe I'm reading you wrong and it's a case of semantics but, a guy hitting 44 points above the league average is translating his skills.  The change in hitting environment is masking what he's doing -- people are still comparing players to the PED era stat lines in their heads.  Had HK hit .319 Vs a league average of .275 most of the people on this board would be talking about how he was finally living up to the hype.   

 

Most of HK's MLE's pegged him to be a .295-.305 hitter based on his tendency to put the ball on the ground -- the ability to hit balls on the ground through bad defensive minor league IFers playing on mediocre field conditions in meh lighting wasn't going to translate at the MLB level..  Extreme batting averages very rarely carry over unless a guy is a burner -- which HK is not.  Anyway -- Kendrick has lived up to most saber predictions -- the tools scouts missed the boat.  They projected power based on a body type, they predicted better speed based on his athleticism.   Best of all -- most tools guys felt he would be Johnny Ray redux with a glove.

 

It's funny to me -- the major reason HK isn't as good as he could be is because his biggest tool is in fact an empty batting average.  Had he sacrificed some of that batting average for more power or to get on on base more, he would have been much more valuable.  

 

He is what he is -- people just want him to be something else.

Edited December 15, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Bruce Nye]

HK is a very good 2b and many times had a hot streak hitting and has carried the team.  He is not a superstar, but he solid offensively and defensively as has been beaten to pieces in a thread similar to this on Page 1. 

[Season Over]

He's a solid player on an affordable contract.

I'm still terrified every time he comes up with a runner on first.

[ten ocho recon scout]

IP makes a great point, not just about howie, but about everyone playing today.

Too many people are still using the last two decades of steroid numbers against todays players, both hitters and pitchers. Its why a guy like trumbo hitting 34 home runs is more power than a 40 home run guy ten years ago.

Maybe maddux or pedro (off the top of my head) could sustain a mid 2's era back then. Most pitchers who were studs were in the low 3-s of that era. So to me, just my opinion, that has to be taken into account when we view someone who has a low 3's average today is still a solid pitcher, but not all star like it was up until recently.

[Docwaukee]

I think this article puts it into perspective really well.  Kendrick is a slightly above average full-time starting 2B who really should've ended up being more.

 

Ignore the future batting champ talk.  His ability to hit for average did not translate from the minors to majors, that happens.  But his skill set says that he should've been so much more.  Kendrick is a strong, semi-fast ball player with a swing that's extremely direct to the ball.  Given his build, it wouldn't have been out of this world for him to have hit 30 HR and steal 15-20 bases a year, but his flaws got in the way of that. 

 

Most every pitcher knows by now that with no strikes or two strikes, Howie will swing at a low and away slider (and miss quite frequently).  This either puts him in the hole or sends him back to the bench prematurely before he can inflict serious damage with his bat.  Had he learned by now to lay off that pitch, his OBP would probably be a hell of a lot higher than .338 (or whatever it is) and he'd probably reach base and have the opportunity to steal and/or score more often.

 

Howie also never truly developed the ability to turn on the ball.  He can really power up in CF and right-CF, but for someone as strong as he is and with as quick of a swing as he has, Kendrick doesn't power up on much on the inner half, which prevents him from inflicting damage even when he manages to lay off the breaking ball away. 

 

 

he probably hasn't been able to turn on the inside fastball because he's always protecting outer half.  I have always thought that this was the biggest flaw with his approach.  Looking for the ball on the outer half and offering at the slider away that he can't recognize and it turns into a swinging strike.  

 

I remember we had a discussion about his approach when he was going good last year and one of Eppards comments was that they wanted to make sure he didn't get to focused on going away. 

 

The other thing is that his eye/hand coordination is off the charts yet his swing plane is such that when he hit it right its a line drive, but if it's not just right, it's a ground ball.  Would love to see him hit more fly balls because of his strength.  He's a guy that could change his swing and still be ok because his ability is so amamzing.  Maybe start his hands lower. 

 

Anyway, that's my bullshit fanboy internet message board two bits. 

[Inside Pitch]

 

 

The other thing is that his eye/hand coordination is off the charts yet his swing plane is such that when he hit it right its a line drive, but if it's not just right, it's a ground ball.  Would love to see him hit more fly balls because of his strength.  He's a guy that could change his swing and still be ok because his ability is so amamzing.  Maybe start his hands lower. 

 

 

 

Preach it...

[Blarg]

He's a solid player on an affordable contract.

I'm still terrified every time he comes up with a runner on first.

You scare easy.

Boo!

[Spirit]

Good stuff, Jonathan.  Seeing HK's numbers next to his peers really helps give a perspective to what kind of a player he is.  While I agree that he has not developed into what we all thought he'd be, I'm glad he's on our team.

 

 

 

(2014 writers challenge:  I would encourage all of us that write for AW to become more picky about the articles we submit.  Proof read them a couple times.  Have someone you trust proof read them for you.  Let's find the errors and fix them prior to submission.)

[Angel Oracle]

Off subject some, the fact that Howie has been slightly better than Kinsler the past 2 seasons makes one wonder just how far Fielder has fallen in 2 seasons.