Not psyched about Vargas

[Angelsjunky]

Let's face it: Jason Vargas is the definition of average. He is good for an ERA around 4.00, plus or minus a few points, and 2ish WAR per season. Not bad, but nothing to be excited about - and certainly not the type of pitcher that you want more than one or two of if you hope to contend for the playoffs. He's a solid #4, no more or less.

 

The point is, if he's Dipoto's plans for a #3 starter, we're in trouble. Richards should be consider the #5 at this point, even though I think he can out-perform Vargas this year. Weaver and Wilson are both #2s, maybe a #3 in Wilson's case. So the Angels need at least one more starter of Wilson's caliber to give them a solid starting three - and that feels minimal.

 

As for Vargas, I can live with a Blanton-esque contract, but not much more than that. Vargas is not worth more than about $10 million a year. 2/$20MM? 3/$25MM? Sure, why not? I wouldn't pay more than that, though.

[ettin]

Well that seems like the minimal goal having at least a rotation consisting of Weaver, Wilson, ?, Vargas, and Richards. That 3rd pitcher can be a young controllable type (like Kluber or any number of good arms out there right now). Vargas is strictly the #4 innings eater type that gives you a chance to win every time he goes out on the field. That would be okay with me as long as we also acquire some additional good pitching depth in the Minors in case of injury or under performance. I think Vargas will sign for 3yrs/$30 million give or take and that is okay too.

 

Unless we trade more position players this will probably be what we end up with, which is okay I think?

[Scott34]

I've been bringing this up lately too, and I concur.  He just simply isn't that good.

[mtangelsfan]

I don't think too many people are arguing he is that good.  Just that as far as what it will cost us (money, draft picks) to sign Vargas is minimul.  I don't think the other names being tossed around right now (Arroyo, Garza etc) are really much better either.

[tennischmp]

They have a 1,2 and a 5 and need a 3 and 4. Vargas is a 4 so if they can sign him that would be fine but they would still need a 3(or a 2 in which case Wilson becomes a 3)

[wopphil]

Vargas is fine.  What they really need is a young, cheap starter with huge upside who can potentially slot into a number 2 or 3 spot to complete the rotation.  If Shelby Miller is truly available, he could be the perfect fit and could well be worth giving up Aybar and more to acquire. 

Edited November 20, 2013 by wopphil

[Brent Maguire]

I would be fine with bringing him back on a 3/25 or 2/20 deal to be our #4. The bigger issue is finding a guy who is a capable #2 or 3. 

[Chuck]

If Vargas is #4 and Richards is #5 or vice versa and the Angels add a good #1 or #2 type starter in between Weaver and Wilson, I'm stoked on the rotation. If Vargas is your #3, Richards #4 and some guy like Blanton is #5, then you're in a world of trouble IMO.

 

I'm all for Vargas being our #4 or #5. The guy gives us more QS's than bad ones. He keeps the Angels in the game. He was vintage Vargas before the blood clot. I wouldn't judge his performance post blood clot.

[Scott34]

He's been below league average for 3 years now (ERA+).  I'd rather ditch Vargas, sign Arroyo and trade from our surplus for another starter or two.

[gotbeer]

Arte Moreno doesn't want the team payroll to go over the competitive balance tax thresh hold.

Edited November 21, 2013 by gotbeer

[Docwaukee]

I have no idea what his medical reports show, but the fact that the blood clot occured on his throwing side is a bit concerning to me.  In other words, thoracic outlet syndrome is an issue.  Potentially not a 'freak' occurrance and something that may actually happen again. 

 

Since the going rate for a #4 starter is around 12mil per then Vargas stands to get 3/36 so there are risks here

 

I do like him in that instead of being consistently mediocre, his overall mediocre numbers generally stem from a few blow ups while the rest are pretty good. 

[Angel Oracle]

Vargas is fine.  What they really need is a young, cheap starter with huge upside who can potentially slot into a number 2 or 3 spot to complete the rotation.  If Shelby Miller is truly available, he could be the perfect fit and could well be worth giving up Aybar and more to acquire. 

I would be willing to throw the dice and see if Aybar and Bourjos (needing pitching, as much as I would hate to lose the defense) would yield Miller.

[tdawg87]

His ERA and ERA+ are "average" at best, but he is a number 4 starter. The last 5 years he has put up numbers that I would be ecstatic about having in the 4th spot in the rotation. Had it not been for his freak injury this year, he likely would have had another season with 200 IP. I'll take 200 IP and an average ERA from the 4 spot year. Let the 1, 2, and 3 guys worry about anchoring the rotation. The back end just needs to eat innings and keep the pen out of the game as long as possible. Vargas and Richards at 4/5 >>>>>>>>>>>> Hanson and Blanton at 4/5. That isn't even close.

 

I do agree however, that Vargas is not a front end guy. Not in the slightest. If the Angels see him as a number 3 then I am definitely concerned.

[nikkachez]

I feel like people are slightly overreacting to Vargas, he'd be our 4th starter and possibly 5th if Garrett pitches to his potential, not a big deal. ERA's for pitchers who started the fourth amount of games for each AL club (not a perfect way to measure it but it's close enough)

 

Baltimore: 4.07 (Chen)

Boston: 4.32 (Doubront)

Toronto: 6.20 (Johnson)

New York: 3.10 (Nova)

Tampa Bay: had a constant rotation within a rotation of Cobb, Hernandez, Hellickson, and Archer so I'll continue

Chicago: 4.75 (Danks)

Cleveland: 3.85 (Kluber)

Kansas City: 5.32 (Davis) 

Minnesota: 3.83 (Deduno)

Detroit: 3.67 (Fister)

Texas: 3.11 (Ogando) 

Seattle: 5.76 (Harang)

Houston: 5.59 (Lyles)

Oakland: 4.14 (Milone)

 

Vargas: 4.02 after coming back from a freak injury, which before the injury, he was our best pitcher. Sure it wouldn't have lasted throughout the whole season but he was still pitching well for us. The point is people need to stop overreacting to our fourth starter, Vargas is average to above average in the fourth spot of a rotation, it's the third spot in the rotation you should be worried about

[Brent Maguire]

He's been below league average for 3 years now (ERA+).  I'd rather ditch Vargas, sign Arroyo and trade from our surplus for another starter or two.

Would Arroyo moving back over to the AL be better than Vargas? I don't really think so.

 

The difference between the two might not be much. I think if it comes down to money and Arroyo is cheaper, then Arroyo may be a more attractive option. 

[gotbeer]

I think the Angels just need an average #3 starter.  And Vargas would fit that bill.  If you look at the AL team's, and go straight line on their starting pitching.  So that the lowest ERA is the #1 starter and so forth (because I was lazy and didn't want to go by depth chart and have to rearrange everything).  The average in the MLB is a 4.10 ERA/1.38 WHIP for a #3 starter.  Vargas would be a 4.02 ERA/1.39 WHIP.  

 

Sure you would like to get to the Rays 3.24 ERA (best in the straight line 3 spot)/1.30 WHIP, or the A's 3.96 ERA/1.24 WHIP (Best in the straight line 3 spot).  

 

But if it came down to it, with our offense, average should be good enough.  

[Mark68]

I don't think too many people are arguing he is that good.  Just that as far as what it will cost us (money, draft picks) to sign Vargas is minimul.  I don't think the other names being tossed around right now (Arroyo, Garza etc) are really much better either.

Garza MIGHT be better, but will cost more. Not worth it.

[nikkachez]

I think the Angels just need an average #3 starter.  And Vargas would fit that bill.  If you look at the AL team's, and go straight line on their starting pitching.  So that the lowest ERA is the #1 starter and so forth (because I was lazy and didn't want to go by depth chart and have to rearrange everything).  The average in the MLB is a 4.10 ERA/1.38 WHIP for a #3 starter.  Vargas would be a 4.02 ERA/1.39 WHIP.  

 

Sure you would like to get to the Rays 3.24 ERA (best in the straight line 3 spot)/1.30 WHIP, or the A's 3.96 ERA/1.24 WHIP (Best in the straight line 3 spot).  

 

But if it came down to it, with our offense, average should be good enough.  

I don't want Vargas to be our third starter, but I'm more than okay with him being our fourth starter

[Second Base]

Jason Vargas isn't even excited about Jason Vargas.  Until he realized that he's Jason Vargas and some stupid desperate team is going to sign him for 4 years and 50 million dollars.  

 

Then Jason Vargas absolutely loves Jason Vargas, to the point where he buys a leather jacket and wears nothing but that while staring into a mirror  and saying to the reflection "Are you ready to face Jason Vargas, 50 million dollar man?!"

[tennischmp]

I think the Angels just need an average #3 starter.  And Vargas would fit that bill.  If you look at the AL team's, and go straight line on their starting pitching.  So that the lowest ERA is the #1 starter and so forth (because I was lazy and didn't want to go by depth chart and have to rearrange everything).  The average in the MLB is a 4.10 ERA/1.38 WHIP for a #3 starter.  Vargas would be a 4.02 ERA/1.39 WHIP.  

 

Sure you would like to get to the Rays 3.24 ERA (best in the straight line 3 spot)/1.30 WHIP, or the A's 3.96 ERA/1.24 WHIP (Best in the straight line 3 spot).  

 

But if it came down to it, with our offense, average should be good enough.  

What is the average #3 starter stats of the teams making the playoffs? That's what you should be looking. Having Vargas as the #3 starter in the playoffs is not ideal.

[Mark68]

Jason Vargas isn't even excited about Jason Vargas.  Until he realized that he's Jason Vargas and some stupid desperate team is going to sign him for 4 years and 50 million dollars.  

 

Then Jason Vargas absolutely loves Jason Vargas, to the point where he buys a leather jacket and wears nothing but that while staring into a mirror  and saying to the reflection "Are you ready to face Jason Vargas, 50 million dollar man?!"

As long as he doesn't kiss himself in that mirror...

[tdawg87]

I think the Angels just need an average #3 starter.  And Vargas would fit that bill.  If you look at the AL team's, and go straight line on their starting pitching.  So that the lowest ERA is the #1 starter and so forth (because I was lazy and didn't want to go by depth chart and have to rearrange everything).  The average in the MLB is a 4.10 ERA/1.38 WHIP for a #3 starter.  Vargas would be a 4.02 ERA/1.39 WHIP.  

 

Sure you would like to get to the Rays 3.24 ERA (best in the straight line 3 spot)/1.30 WHIP, or the A's 3.96 ERA/1.24 WHIP (Best in the straight line 3 spot).  

 

But if it came down to it, with our offense, average should be good enough.  

 

This line of thinking brought to you by the 2013 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

[ScottT]

I'm leery of a multi year deal for Vargas and any other mediocre starters on the wrong side of 30.  That said, I don't want to see Williams and Blanton start 45 games in 2014. If they don't sign Vargas, they better get two starters that will be ahead of Williams and Blanton. 

[VariousCrap]

 

The point is, if he's Dipoto's plans for a #3 starter, we're in trouble.

 

 

 

This is the most important point you brought up.  If Vargas starts the season at the Angels #4, that is a solid #4 to have.  By the end of the season, he could be the #5 if Richards continues to get better and if Vargas is your #5, you have an excellent rotation.

 

If the Angels sign Vargas to be their #3 and then get some to start their season as the #4, we are in for a long season.

 

My fear is the Angels signing the Vargas as the #3 and then Phil Hughes to be the #4.

 

All that said, I think the Jerry knows they need a better #3 than Vargas.

[VariousCrap]

He's been below league average for 3 years now (ERA+).  I'd rather ditch Vargas, sign Arroyo and trade from our surplus for another starter or two.

 

 

 

Please stop sucking Arroyo's shaft.

 

The dude will get lit up in the AL.