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Good luck rebuilding


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I keep seeing tons of posts about selling off the teams spare parts to make them better......eventually

 

Yet a bad loss tonight and many are still pissed even with little doubt about the outcome of this season. 

 

On top of that, we traded a 38yo middle relief lefty specialist about to become a FA with half less than half a season left on his somewhat expensive contract (for his ability) and got market value which wasn't much yet we somehow should have parlayed him into a #3 starter for 2016.

 

It's hard to imagine how many will react when we are left with Trout, Weaver, Wilson, Pujols, Hamilton and a bunch of prospects we traded for when we should have gotten more. 

 

If people think it's bad now, just imagine losing 90 games a season for who knows how long.  And I phrase it as such to the point that a group of prospects, regardless of fans agreement or disagreement on value are still just prospects and guarantee nothing. 

 

In addition, if Dipoto is so bad and has lost the trust of the fans, why would we trust him and his crew to set this team up to win in 2017 and beyond. 

 

Losing sucks no matter what, but being guaranteed to lose sucks even worse. 

 

I am not saying that there isn't a point where you step back and look to cut your losses. 

 

Yet from where this team currently sits in terms of payroll and long term contracts, there isn't a 'start fresh' scenario. 

However, Can a team with a 100+mil payroll and a bunch of long term commitments still put a winning product on the field AND slowly rebuild the farm system?  I know it's been done, but does this group have what it takes to be somewhat unusual that way?

 

I am not sure.

 

The biggest question you have to ask yourself as a fan of this team is whether you think that Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton can rebound from their poor seasons and provide enough production to help this team win as opposed to being as much of the problem as they are currently.  I am not asking whether we think they will be worth the money they are being paid, but can they provide enough production where it's worth it for the team to continue to try and surround them with players that will aid in the team being a playoff contender.

 

I, for one, am not ready to write those two off just yet and with that, I don't think the team should sell off all of their spare parts.

 

I think that certain moves can be made to improve the club for 2014 and some of those move likely involve those currently on the major league roster. 

 

I also think that the minor league system is headed in the right direction and when the crop of high A players reach AAA, we will have a much different outlook. 

 

Trading away the right players at the right time will be enough to turn things around.

 

Am I confident that the team will turn it around in 2014?  Nope, but the alternative of setting the team up to automatically lose 90+ games by selling everyone off seems much less palatable to me than at least attempting to field a competitive squad for the next two years while the two big contract guys actually have a chance at being productive.  

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Yea, this is an excellent post. I certainly couldn't have said it better myself. To answer your question, yes I think Pujols will be much better next year if he fully heals. As for Hamilton, I just don't know. I thought he was a clean player with ungodly skills, now I'm not so sure.

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Sorry I would take a loss much better when guaranteed to lose, knowing that we are rebuilding, than when we are going all in, expecting to win.

So if in the next two years Pujols and Hamilton go 35hrs .300avg .875ops and Weaver and Wilson post sub 3 eras, Trout does his thing yet we blow a boat load of saves and the back end of the rotation has Barry Enright and Michael Roth, you won't be pissed when we win 86 games and miss the playoff because of a lack of a supporting cast?

 

I sure as shit will

 

Everything that could go wrong this year has.  Next year, a lot more could go right.  Is that something the team should rely on going forward?  Hell no, but it's better than having no chance at all, or even worse, wasting one. 

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So if in the next two years Pujols and Hamilton go 35hrs .300avg .875ops and Weaver and Wilson post sub 3 eras, Trout does his thing yet we blow a boat load of saves and the back end of the rotation has Barry Enright and Michael Roth, you won't be pissed when we win 86 games and miss the playoff because of a lack of a supporting cast?

 

I sure as shit will

 

Everything that could go wrong this year has.  Next year, a lot more could go right.  Is that something the team should rely on going forward?  Hell no, but it's better than having no chance at all, or even worse, wasting one. 

I was just responding to your comment about losing sucks no matter what, but being guaranteed to lose sucks even worse. I didn't agree with that and that's why I responded.

 

I actually agree with you that rebuilding is not the way to go with this team, retooling is.

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So if in the next two years Pujols and Hamilton go 35hrs .300avg .875ops and Weaver and Wilson post sub 3 eras, Trout does his thing yet we blow a boat load of saves and the back end of the rotation has Barry Enright and Michael Roth, you won't be pissed when we win 86 games and miss the playoff because of a lack of a supporting cast?

 

I sure as shit will

 

Everything that could go wrong this year has.  Next year, a lot more could go right.  Is that something the team should rely on going forward?  Hell no, but it's better than having no chance at all, or even worse, wasting one. 

 

A lot more could have gone wrong. Vargas could decline a bit or we could lose him in the off season. Trout could get hurt. Pujols could decline even more. Hamilton could maintain his level of play. Aybar could be hurt for an extended period. This team has no depth in the middle infield or with starting pitching. The heart of this team is largely on the downside of their careers. 

 

What's worse is if this team stands pat and wins 85 games next year (I doubt they win that many) and 80 the year after that. We now are effectively done contending and have no assets to trade because Kenrick, Aybar, Trumbo, Frieri and Bourjos are older and have very little service time left on their contracts, aren't as cheap and have more teams on their no trade lists (each has different circumstances). Weaver will probably regress a little as his velocity dips even more. Wilson won't be as effective. We have no farm players to call up to replace any of the guys we lose or that are declining. Trout is 25 and we are looking at 90+ losses for the next 5 years and waste his entire prime. That to me is the worst case scenario and seemingly where this team is headed.

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Like it or not, Pujols and Hamilton are going to be part of the Angels for at least the next few years. They don't need them to be MVP level again. If they can be Glaus and Anderson of 2002 then this team can win it all. Look back at that pitching staff and tell me they can't duplicate that by next season. 

 

And don't get me wrong. I'm not saying this team can mirror that one. Just saying that if things start going right instead of blowing up all over the place that they can win.

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So if in the next two years Pujols and Hamilton go 35hrs .300avg .875ops and Weaver and Wilson post sub 3 eras, Trout does his thing yet we blow a boat load of saves and the back end of the rotation has Barry Enright and Michael Roth, you won't be pissed when we win 86 games and miss the playoff because of a lack of a supporting cast?

I sure as shit will

Everything that could go wrong this year has. Next year, a lot more could go right. Is that something the team should rely on going forward? Hell no, but it's better than having no chance at all, or even worse, wasting one.

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As usual, an excellent post Doc - I agree. The Angels have too many expensive, unmovable parts whose value is shorter term to complete rebuild.

 

I also agree that we'll see bounce-backs from Pujols and Hamilton next year. Not as much as we might hope, but I'm tentatively optimistic that we'll see Albert's best year as an Angel. I'm working on a long blog about Albert, which should be done today or tomorrow.

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This team needs to get radically younger and deeper with talent. It is much harder now than every before:

1) Sabermetrics have fully been integrated into nearly every FO. Young talent is appropriately valued. There isn't as much leeway to take advantage of the Tony Reagins or Ruben Amaros of the world.

2) banning of amphetamines. This has profoundly and substantially shifted the game away from elder players to players in their 20s.

2b) players get hurt more now and don't have the same go-go juice sans amphetamines. This is why depth is so vitally crucial. Expecting a team to largely remain healthy is madness.

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And yet Moreno and Dipoto were too stupid to understand 2).

Just about everyone they acquire is in their 30s.

Truly, though, maybe they get a pass on having ONE big money guy in his 30s in Pujols because of the new tv deal. But why the bleep did they need to sign another one in Hackilton? That is truly where they have messed up the next few years.

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Then maybe they need to end this crazy money FA phase they are going through, and do it right.

Yes it will be more painful to wait longer because the farm is in the midst of a rebuild. And yes, there will be venting as a result. But that venting may likely be with less venom, knowing that doing things the right way with smart people has a chance to pay off in the future.

This current crazy money way is not paying off, and likely never will.

When I lamented Stoneman not making any trades, that didn't mean I wanted them to go crazy on acquisitions, just make strategic ones.

Just about every team that goes to the post-season does it with a balanced approach of player development, occasional impact trade, and strategic acquisitions to fill in a hole or two at a time.

Consider the team we would have had if that was followed, the prospects we would have kept, and the big money wash outs we wouldn't have.

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cut to the chase and GET SOME PITCHING.

this batting order, even with average to below average years can rip up the leauge.

if ownership is serious about winning, they will do what it takes by trade, free agency or however to aquire pitching.

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This team needs to get radically younger and deeper with talent. It is much harder now than every before:

1) Sabermetrics have fully been integrated into nearly every FO. Young talent is appropriately valued. There isn't as much leeway to take advantage of the Tony Reagins or Ruben Amaros of the world.

2) banning of amphetamines. This has profoundly and substantially shifted the game away from elder players to players in their 20s.

2b) players get hurt more now and don't have the same go-go juice sans amphetamines. This is why depth is so vitally crucial. Expecting a team to largely remain healthy is madness.

It's funny you bring up Amaro. I feel like the Phillies are in a similar situation to us. I don't know enough about their farm system but they are an older team with a lot of dead weight money and a high payroll. They have some tradeable assets but they probably want to hang on to Brown. They have a younger braves and nationals team in their division. Who here thinks the Phils should rebuild? I do.

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It's smart if the Phillies are starting a rebuild. They even have one facet that we don't have that will help them rebuild: Cliff Lee, a guy they don't need to hold on to unlike Trout, and who is good unlike Pujols and Hackilton.

But only if a team is crazy enough to trade 3-4 really good prospects for him and empty their upper farm.

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