The Official Los Angeles Angels 2023-2024 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[Angel Oracle]

Mr. Imanaga, you do understand that by Thursday, you need to have chosen a team, get your physical, and dot the i’s before signing?

[Inside Pitch]

49 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Why the rush to trade Rengifo? He has improved last 2 years. Can play all of INF and OF positions. This is type of player halos should sign too an extension. Bieber is one year rental just sign a FA pitcher to a deal. Like most teams Clevland would have zero interest in Anderson.

Because Angels fans think he's still the guy who was throwing 93-94 in 2019/20 and not the guy throwing 90/91 in 2022/23.

People interested in seeing how his diminishing FB has impacted his other pitchers (pitch values), go to FG and compare his 2019/20 seasons to last year.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Because Angels fans think he's still the guy who was throwing 93-94 in 2019/20 and not the guy throwing 90/91 in 2022/23.

People interested in seeing how his diminishing FB has impacted his other pitchers (pitch values), go to FG and compare his 2019/20 seasons to last year.

You should do a tutorial on how to read those stats. 

[BTH]

Who is tweeting this? Chuck?

 

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

You should do a tutorial on how to read those stats. 

In case you really are interested,

Pitch values are just the run expectancy on a particular pitch over the course of a season, so the biggest sample size possible works best -- such as full season stats.  Pitch Value isn't at all predictive, it's like ERA in that it tells you "what happened" not "why" -- the "why" is more important than the "what" and you can't base an opinion simply on pitch values IMO.

But what has basically happened is that as his FB has gotten weaker, not only has his FB become less effective, everything else has too.  Whether it's reversible or not, I don't know, but he's looking like he's in a Jered Weaver-ish form of decline.  Hitters are chasing pitches out of the zone a lot less and making contact at pitches in the zones better than ever before -- over 90% last year.  His overall contact rates have gone from 63.3% in 20, to 66.1% in 21, to 72.1% in 22, to finally 77% last season. 

Anyway, the argument with him has always been that he was successful without an overpowering FB, but that has been becoming less and less true. He has been using his cutter more, so he's been trying to compensate for the diminishing velocity by moving off his curveball which has gone from a plus pitch to a negative one.  To date he hasn't really seen as noticeable drop in the velocity of his other pitches, so he's got room to tinker.

I didn't really watch a lot of Cleveland games last season, I tend to look at stats to support what I think my eyes are seeing and that's not the case here -- no idea if there was some underlying condition or whatever, but based purely on the trajectory he's been on he's not looking like a good investment long term.

[FromJapan]

(Link in English) Comparison of Uwasawa, Yamamoto, and Imanaga - Breaking Down the Arsenal of Free Agent Naoyuki Uwasawa

------

Uwasawa (29, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters), who is hoping to transfer to the Major Leagues through the posting system, visited a Japanese pub (izakaya) "HACHI", where Ippei's father Hidemasa works, in Costa Mesa. When the Fighters came to Arizona for spring training from 2016 to 2018, Hidemasa was a chef for them.

(Link in Japanese) Sponichi Annex on January 7th, 2024 (JST)

[Angel Oracle]

23 minutes ago, FromJapan said:

(Link in English) Comparison of Uwasawa, Yamamoto, and Imanaga - Breaking Down the Arsenal of Free Agent Naoyuki Uwasawa

------

Uwasawa (29, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters), who is hoping to transfer to the Major Leagues through the posting system, visited a Japanese pub (izakaya) "HACHI", where Ippei's father Hidemasa works, in Costa Mesa. When the Fighters came to Arizona for spring training from 2016 to 2018, Hidemasa was a chef for them.

(Link in Japanese) Sponichi Annex on January 7th, 2024 (JST)

He does mix up 6 different pitches.

4 seam, curve, slider, cutter, splitter, and change

Main issue is 90mph average on 4 seam.

Threw between 152 and 170 innings the past 3 seasons.

Edited January 7 by Angel Oracle

[mmc]

 

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, mmc said:

 

So based on the past couple days, it's either 4 teams or 5 teams, and the Angels are either the frontrunners, still in contention, or not in the final group at all.  Got it.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

So based on the past couple days, it's either 4 teams or 5 teams, and the Angels are either the frontrunners, still in contention, or not in the final group at all.  Got it.

I'm waiting for the dude from Ancient Aliens to report his findings.  Everyone else is unreliable.

[rafibomb]

Don’t trust any source until Passan tweets it. Simple as that. But I also get posting different sources here for conversations sake. 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

In case you really are interested,

Pitch values are just the run expectancy on a particular pitch over the course of a season, so the biggest sample size possible works best -- such as full season stats.  Pitch Value isn't at all predictive, it's like ERA in that it tells you "what happened" not "why" -- the "why" is more important than the "what" and you can't base an opinion simply on pitch values IMO.

But what has basically happened is that as his FB has gotten weaker, not only has his FB become less effective, everything else has too.  Whether it's reversible or not, I don't know, but he's looking like he's in a Jered Weaver-ish form of decline.  Hitters are chasing pitches out of the zone a lot less and making contact at pitches in the zones better than ever before -- over 90% last year.  His overall contact rates have gone from 63.3% in 20, to 66.1% in 21, to 72.1% in 22, to finally 77% last season. 

Anyway, the argument with him has always been that he was successful without an overpowering FB, but that has been becoming less and less true. He has been using his cutter more, so he's been trying to compensate for the diminishing velocity by moving off his curveball which has gone from a plus pitch to a negative one.  To date he hasn't really seen as noticeable drop in the velocity of his other pitches, so he's got room to tinker.

I didn't really watch a lot of Cleveland games last season, I tend to look at stats to support what I think my eyes are seeing and that's not the case here -- no idea if there was some underlying condition or whatever, but base purely on the trajectory he's been on he's not looking like a good investment long term.

Thank you. This is great. 

[Stradling]

The Dodgers are looking at Teoscar Hernandez according to reports. Would you trade Taylor Ward for Dustin May?

[Taylor]

3 hours ago, BTH said:

Who is tweeting this? Chuck?

 

Maybe Geoff is just stirring the pot.

[Tank]

3 hours ago, BTH said:

Who is tweeting this? Chuck?

 

this is something we should all be used to by now. 

[Tank]

22 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The Dodgers are looking at Teoscar Hernandez according to reports. Would you trade Taylor Ward for Dustin May?

yes

[Angel Oracle]

39 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The Dodgers are looking at Teoscar Hernandez according to reports. Would you trade Taylor Ward for Dustin May?

Two elbow surgeries say no.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

In case you really are interested,

Pitch values are just the run expectancy on a particular pitch over the course of a season, so the biggest sample size possible works best -- such as full season stats.  Pitch Value isn't at all predictive, it's like ERA in that it tells you "what happened" not "why" -- the "why" is more important than the "what" and you can't base an opinion simply on pitch values IMO.

But what has basically happened is that as his FB has gotten weaker, not only has his FB become less effective, everything else has too.  Whether it's reversible or not, I don't know, but he's looking like he's in a Jered Weaver-ish form of decline.  Hitters are chasing pitches out of the zone a lot less and making contact at pitches in the zones better than ever before -- over 90% last year.  His overall contact rates have gone from 63.3% in 20, to 66.1% in 21, to 72.1% in 22, to finally 77% last season. 

Anyway, the argument with him has always been that he was successful without an overpowering FB, but that has been becoming less and less true. He has been using his cutter more, so he's been trying to compensate for the diminishing velocity by moving off his curveball which has gone from a plus pitch to a negative one.  To date he hasn't really seen as noticeable drop in the velocity of his other pitches, so he's got room to tinker.

I didn't really watch a lot of Cleveland games last season, I tend to look at stats to support what I think my eyes are seeing and that's not the case here -- no idea if there was some underlying condition or whatever, but base purely on the trajectory he's been on he's not looking like a good investment long term.

The threshold velo principal.  Not sure what else they call it, but once the velo drops below a certain point, everything else falls apart as well.  It's different for different guys and in my opinion the theory can be translated to the effectiveness of any pitch in that pitcher's repertoire.  It's that combination of interplay that has a sweet spot for each guy.  You lose a little or gain a little (effectiveness, not just velo) on one and it impacts the other pitches.  And it's not just spin and velo but location as well.  

Watch what happens with Canning this year if he stays healthy.  I think he's got a good chance to be the Angel's best pitcher this year.  I would say the same thing of Detmers, but his pitches seem very inconsistent to me.  Really good depth on a curve or slider followed by some that are just flat or hung.  His stuff just seems to come and go in my opinion.  

[jsnpritchett]

Surprised by this.

Edited January 8 by jsnpritchett

[m0nkey]

Seems like a lot?

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, m0nkey said:

Seems like a lot?

One-year deal, so it probably had to be a lot to win out over a multi-year deal.  Guess he's thinking he'll do well this year and be able to get more in a multi-year deal next off-season.  Still a little surprising to see him take a one-year deal, though.

[Erstad Grit]

All the reports had him wanting 4 years.

As a platoon player no less, dodgers are just stacked now.

[jsnpritchett]

Lol.  More deferrals.

 

[ScottT]

2 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

Seems like a lot?

Especially considering the added tax they'll pay.  

F'n Shohei.

[Pancake Bear]

6 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Surprised by this.

His poor year with Seattle probably hurt his value a lot more than he anticipated. He'll try to recoup value with LA and go for another round in FA next season.