An honest take on what Trout has become: Not a top 20 player

[Angelsjunky]

As everyone knows, Trout was absurdly good from 2012-19. Not only was it one of the best eight-year runs in major league history, but through 2019, he had the highest fWAR through age 27 in baseball history. 

Through Age 27

1. Mike Trout 71.3
2. Ty Cobb 68.8
3. Mickey Mantle 67.9
4. Jimmy Foxx 64.4
5. Rogers Hornsby 64.2

Since 2020, however, Trout has struggled with injury. Through today's game, he has played 290 games out of the last 521 team games, or 55.7% of Angels games from 2020-23. From 2021 on, it is even worse: 237 out of 461 games or 51.4%. If he misses the rest of the season, Trout will have played less than half of all games over the last three years.

Or we can look at WAR. From 2020-23, his 13.7 WAR is 24th highest in the majors; over the last two years, his 9.0 WAR over the last two seasons (2022-23) is 21st highest.

2023: 3.0 WAR (60th)

2022-23: 9.0 WAR (21st)

2021-23: 11.2 WAR (32nd)

2020-23: 13.7 WAR (24th)

2019-23: 22.1 WAR (8th)

In other words, you have to go back five seasons to find a range in which Trout is even top 10.

The verdict is this: Mike Trout is no longer among the twenty most valuable position players in baseball anymore. And this after being the consensus best player in the game for eight years, and maybe a year or two after. Based upon actual cumulative value to his team, he's probably in the 21-30 range, as you can see with the 2, 3, and 4-year age ranges.

Now this can change if he's healthy in 2024. A bounce-back season even to a mere garden variety MVP caliber 7 WAR returns him to the elite. I think that's possible, though I suspect even in a best-case scenario, he's been passed by as the best player in the game (that title probably belongs to Roland Acuna, or possibly Mookie Betts). But he hasn't been there consistently for the last four seasons, and that's a large enough sample size to downgrade his status. 

 

[ScottT]

Lol

[cals]

He just needs to stay on the field.  He still is Mike Trout, but like someone else mentioned, he’s like Griffey.  It’s not only disappointing as a fan of the Angels, it’s sad for baseball. 

Then again, how many of the guys that are “all time greats” padded those stats with an awesome first decade and then couldn’t stay healthy consistently?  It’s got to be quite a few.

[thebloob]

“Roland” Acuña will be happy to hear he is the best.  It’s all health.  If he healthy he is still top 10.  

[Sully151]

3 minutes ago, cals said:

Then again, how many of the guys that are “all time greats” padded those stats with an awesome first decade and then couldn’t stay healthy consistently?  It’s got to be quite a few.

And how many others that had huge backends of their careers had a little extra help from their pharmacists.

[cals]

1 minute ago, Sully151 said:

And how many others that had huge backends of their careers had a little extra help from their pharmacists.

In the 80s, 90s and early 00s, quite a few it would seem.

[Angelsjunky]

14 minutes ago, Sully151 said:

And how many others that had huge backends of their careers had a little extra help from their pharmacists.

Well, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron--among others--did just fine in their second decades without "augmentation."

[Angelsjunky]

18 minutes ago, thebloob said:

“Roland” Acuña will be happy to hear he is the best.  It’s all health.  If he healthy he is still top 10.  

Which I said in my post. But..."If" is the operative word. 

[Angelsjunky]

22 minutes ago, cals said:

He just needs to stay on the field.  He still is Mike Trout, but like someone else mentioned, he’s like Griffey.  It’s not only disappointing as a fan of the Angels, it’s sad for baseball. 

Then again, how many of the guys that are “all time greats” padded those stats with an awesome first decade and then couldn’t stay healthy consistently?  It’s got to be quite a few.

That might have been me. A few years ago, Griffey was the cautionary tale that we hoped wouldn't be the model for Trout's aging. But unfortunately it is now looking like the most likely trajectory. But as I think Yoda said, the future is not written.

[cals]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That might have been me. A few years ago, Griffey was the cautionary tale that we hoped wouldn't be the model for Trout's aging. But unfortunately it is now looking like the most likely trajectory. But as I think Yoda said, the future is not written.

I have you blocked so I don’t think it was you.

[cals]

I’m just kidding

[Kotchman]

1 hour ago, cals said:

He just needs to stay on the field.  He still is Mike Trout, but like someone else mentioned, he’s like Griffey.  It’s not only disappointing as a fan of the Angels, it’s sad for baseball. 

Then again, how many of the guys that are “all time greats” padded those stats with an awesome first decade and then couldn’t stay healthy consistently?  It’s got to be quite a few.

I was just thinking how my two favorite players pretty much lost half their careers. Two stand up dudes makes it worse. I’d much rather seen bonds and arod lose their careers 

[gurn67]

I made the Griffey comparison after he went to the Reds a few days ago. I think 100-120 games a year from now on and an OPS in the .800-850 range will be the norm form now on. He couldn't hit a decent fastball this year. He couldn't catch up to anything over 95 miles an hour. In an age where it seems like 90% of the guys can hit 95, that's a problem.

[Angel Oracle]

5 hours ago, ScottT said:

Lol

Top 20 players don’t miss 45% of games since 2020.

[tomsred]

It's not rocket science, players under 30 can avoid injury for the most part, and rack up impressive stats.  Over 30 watch out.  The best way to win is through scouting and development.  Get them to the majors as quickly as possible while the players are still valuable.  The financial situation is baseball is pretty screwed up, it certainly is not pay for current performance, it's more like pay for what you midyears ago in the hope that you will find it again.  However, aging athletes incur injuries at a higher rate, and it doesn't matter how experienced you are you become handicapped to perform.  There a very few exceptions.

I often wonder if the Angels limit the player on the 40 man roster over 30 to 3 or 4 players how would they perform.  You just need a few clear leaders, todays under 30 players are stronger, healthier, and more say than ever.

 

[notherhalo]

Johan Santana was the best pitcher for a long time and than he was done at 31

[UndertheHalo]

Mike Trout died and this is his shitty clone.  This is 100% true.  

[Swordsman78]

12 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Mike Trout died and this is his shitty clone.  This is 100% true.  

Clones are never 100% of the original. Always lose significant gene combinations with each further rendition.

By clone level three you end up with Canseco

[UndertheHalo]

2 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Clones are never 100% of the original. Always lose significant gene combinations with each further rendition.

By clone level three you end up with Canseco

Many are saying that he’s exactly the same as Dolly the sheep. 

[Dtwncbad]

On 9/3/2023 at 9:51 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Well, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron--among others--did just fine in their second decades without "augmentation."

You assume.  Amphetamines were prevalent.

[notherhalo]

You heard it here first, Pujols time as an Angel will end up being more productive than the back half of Trouts 

[fan_since79]

12 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Mike Trout died and this is his shitty clone.  This is 100% true.  

Mike finally realized he's playing for the worst team in baseball history. He's simply lost his enthusiasm.

[Slegnaac]

 

13 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Mike Trout died and this is his shitty clone.  This is 100% true.  

Hmm, was he wearing shoes in the video unveiling the City Connect Uniforms?

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Slegnaac

[REDneck]

I posed the question in a thread several months ago as to whether Trout would reach 500 career HR's.

Everyone was absolutely sure that he would some even said he would surpass that and hit 600.

He's at 350 currently and in a holding pattern.

Is everyone still absolutely sure that he's going to get to 500 with his health?

[Jason]

He rarely plays so he isn't a top tier player anymore. It is what it is.