What’s the plan for next season

[70runner]

The only thing worse than watching the Oakland AAAs spank the Angels is listening to O'Neal butcher the PBP.  He's barely tolerable as the intermission guy for the Kings.  For next season, find a competent, full time PBP guy.

[totdprods]

On 9/1/2023 at 2:03 PM, Lazorko Saves said:

I don't know what ya'll mean by "rebuild".

You can't trade Trout, Rendon, or Anderson.

So "rebuild" means you're keeping those guys and trading what we have of value, for even younger, less-proven players: Neto, O'Hoppe, Sandoval, Detmers, Schanuel.

WTF do you all think that does?  Is it all about losing 100 games and getting very high draft picks for the next five years?  Or what?

No. I said pretty clearly, here or in another thread at some point, to drop expectations for ‘24 and the ‘do all to win’ strategy. Try to turn this around in a year, maybe two. Don’t need to blow up the team. 

On 9/1/2023 at 2:14 PM, Swordsman78 said:

Good take.  I would hate to see Rengifo traded.

I wouldn’t necessarily trade Rengifo so much as I would be very open to moving anyone of the Canning, Sandoval, Ward, or Rengifo contingent when the time was right. Instead of seeing these guys as pieces of the next core, try to develop them into trade bait to fuel the next young core. Trade one or two when they hit peak value, this winter, next summer, whatever, and try to get 2-3 guys back who immediately slot into MLB depth. Don’t even need to be blue-chip top prospects, just rely on whatever methodology or scout is being used to find O’Hoppe, Moniak, Neto, Schanuel and apply that to the best, broadest MLB-ready return you can get for one or two of our highest value MLB guys who are not in arbitration before they hit FA (somewhat Dipoto-esque). Estevez and Drury fall into this mix as well though not as urgently. Sign 2-3 middling SPs and a couple relievers, a rebound bat or two (very Eppler-esque). Draft for MLB-need and MLB-readiness (Perry’s strength) and let 2024 be a rebuilding year with the new core.

Quietly hope that by 2025 they’re starting to coalesce, but don’t rush that expectation either. If they do this right and Perry is still here and learned enough in Atlanta, this could look like their core and he can start locking them up long-term.

Hate to say it, but what Dipoto did with Seattle a few seasons ago when he did a quick rebuild is the clearest blueprint.

There is basically no farm at this point - almost no one to bring up to help in case of injury, almost no one to deal for help if needed. Pretty grim, as they're going to need to turn to FA to free a bunch of holes, or sell a guy or two, otherwise there is gonna be a lot of ABs for guys like Adams or Velazquez or Soto still. Almost need to consider trading an arb. eligible guy to add some bodies to the 40-man.

Edited September 2, 2023 by totdprods

[Angels 1961]

I know the plan will not fail. Because there is NO PLAN.

[Tank]

On 9/1/2023 at 1:51 PM, Slegnaac said:

So the baseball version of the Globe Trotters and the Washington Generals?

well, we already have the washington generals of anaheim.

let's do this!

[Tank]

13 hours ago, 70runner said:

The only thing worse than watching the Oakland AAAs spank the Angels is listening to O'Neal butcher the PBP.  He's barely tolerable as the intermission guy for the Kings.  For next season, find a competent, full time PBP guy.

they solved the majority of the o'neal problem by hiring randazzo.

the sticky part is that randazzo does the friday night games for apple tv. i don't know how much longer his contract with them will continue, but i hope it's over soon. i've appreciated listening to matt vasgersian about a gazillion times more than the little leaguer.

[Duren, Duren]

What a radical implosion in six weeks. From a respectable wild card contender gamely trying to overcome adversity to a team getting their ass kicked by the A's. Along with most other teams. And mostly looking pathetic and heartless. 

Not sure if there was a single event or moment that can be singled out. Maybe the deadline deals that fizzled out almost immediately. Trout's absence. Pitching collapse. Lack of leadership.  Terrible mistakes at the wrong time. Feeble clutch play. The recognition that Ohtani can't do everything by himself.

 Likely a mix of things. Like the old roadrunner cartoon when he's in mid air and looks down and realizes he can't keep going. Then dropping to a dramatic crash. 

I'm afraid next year will be a mess. But there will be enough drama to make it interesting. 

 

 

[Angels 1961]

4 hours ago, Duren, Duren said:

What a radical implosion in six weeks. From a respectable wild card contender gamely trying to overcome adversity to a team getting their ass kicked by the A's. Along with most other teams. And mostly looking pathetic and heartless. 

Not sure if there was a single event or moment that can be singled out. Maybe the deadline deals that fizzled out almost immediately. Trout's absence. Pitching collapse. Lack of leadership.  Terrible mistakes at the wrong time. Feeble clutch play. The recognition that Ohtani can't do everything by himself.

 Likely a mix of things. Like the old roadrunner cartoon when he's in mid air and looks down and realizes he can't keep going. Then dropping to a dramatic crash. 

I'm afraid next year will be a mess. But there will be enough drama to make it interesting. 

 

 

The drama will come this off season. Ohtani, Trout, Selling team, bad free agent signings. 

[fan_since79]

22 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

The drama will come this off season. Ohtani, Trout, Selling team, bad free agent signings. 

Rendon not able to play, some other player suffering a serious injury playing basketball, another player with "family issues", etc etc.

[Stradling]

[HBAngel13]

If we can’t win with Ohtani now, I am not sure we can win with him over the course of the next 2-3 years, especially if he isn’t contributing on the mound.  I was for trading him last summer, but once they decided to keep him at this years deadline, I also supported going all in. They kinda backed themselves into a corner and had to.  We knew it was a long shot, but the complete and immediate collapse thereafter was heartbreaking.  I would not resign him at this point.

I do like the young core of Schanuel, O’Hoppe and Neto as well as the pitchers like Silseth, Soriano, Bachman and Joyce. That’s clearly not enough to contend though. 

I support @totdprods and others ideas of cashing in the young guys with 2-4 years of service time and multiple years of control. Ward, Rengifo, Sandoval, Canning, etc. Target guys that are 0-1 yrs from being MLB contributors and try to match them with the youth core with an aim to contend in 2026. Maybe go the Braves route and try to lock those guys up to early extensions if they continue to develop well.  2026 is the last year of Rendons contract and if Ohtani is gone, there should be plenty of payroll ammo to flesh out any major holes.  Use the payroll in the meantime to flesh out the roster with guys you can flip at the deadline and buy prospects by taking on bad 1-3 year contracts.

As for Trout, if you can find someone to take his contract, I think you have to really look hard at it. At 32 he is still young enough where one of the free-wheeling teams would take a flier (Philly). As long as he is on the roster there is going to be constant pressure to win now and by the time we are ready to contend he is in his mid-30’s.  Barring something dramatic, our window to win with Trout is likely shut. 

Best case scenario is that Arte sells. He severely limits our ability to properly rebuild the franchise for long-term success. He has to see the writing on the wall after this year.  I have lived and died with this team since 1982, but it will be difficult to continue if he is still in control by end of 2024. 

[totdprods]

I'm maintaining that the Angels need to drop this whole 'we need/expect to win' belief, at least for a season, this applies to them re-signing Shohei or not, Arte selling, Trout trade, whatever. This should be the organizational belief going into the year. Lower expectations, cut pressure on these kids, let them surprise us. Don't scrape and scrimp to field the best team possible, stop trading for incremental gains. 

Starting Pitching
Whether or not we re-sign Ohtani, 2024 will present an opportunity to experiment with a 5-man rotation. We have not really been able to do this with Shohei in the rotation. Maybe it will help Sandoval, Canning, Detmers. I think Detmers has far too much potential to give up on him or move him, but as mentioned, think the Angels should consider moving one of Sandoval or Canning for a young hitter or 2-3 MLB-ready prospects. Our projected 40-man roster for 2024 is incredibly thin after the top 25 players or so, and that's being generous. We cannot fix that in free agency. We cannot fill that from the farm. We cannot fix that in minor league free agency, waiver claims, or rushing draft picks. Especially not in one year. The Angels have to sell an arb. eligible name or two, and eventually Estevez and Drury, to try and build out that 40-man better. 

So with that said, the Angels rotation in '24 should be: 

• Anderson (run him out there until he's a clear DFA candidate or until he drums up enough value to be traded)
• Detmers (still think he can be an ace)
• one of Sandoval/Canning (the other traded)
• two FA SP adds, with the motivation really being who is gonna be the best to trade
  • I would go with someone on a similar Anderson deal (3/$30m-ish, Montgomery? Paxton? weirdly Junis?)  
  • someone on a 1-year deal, maybe a little more high-risk/reward (Severino? Maeda?)
• Silseth, Daniel, Kochanowicz, Mederos (and another optionable SP depth) starts the year in AAA. They will get plenty of opportunity still, but let's maintain some depth. Maybe draft someone like Hagen Smith who is pretty close to MLB-ready and similarly get him into this mix quick.

Relief Pitching
If it were me, I would go ahead and trade Estevez this winter as well. He's done enough to build his value, he will be tremendously affordable for any club in '24, and with relievers, better to cash in on them early rather than wait. We do not need a lockdown closer in '24 if we aren't planning to contend, and between Joyce, Bachman, and Soriano, I think we can find an internal candidate to develop. Still, I would sign someone else to be our closer once again...though with an intent to trade them mid-year. Go grab one or two of Michael Fulmer, David Robertson, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and repeat what we did with Estevez. Give them a chance to close, rack up some saves, and flip them to a contender mid-year. Honestly, I'd fill out just about every spot in the bullpen with a veteran reliever or high-risk/reward waiver claim with the intent of them all being mid-year trade pieces. Leave a couple spots in the pen for Soriano, Joyce, Bachman, and other AAA relievers to option through, but don't guarantee them opening day slots. Too much health risk between them. Develop them gradually in 2024. Non-tender Suarez and Barria to save $$$. 

Infield
O'Hoppe and Thaiss, for sure, all the way. Would not hurt to have a vet 1B/C-type to maybe mentor them a bit, or have Thaiss play some 1B/3B, but that isn't as clear with Schanuel and perhaps Moustakas and Drury around. I would keep Drury. We need some sort of bankable vet offense and he's the closest we have at this point, with Trout and Rendon perpetually hurt and Ohtani possibly gone. I don't see any reason why we wouldn't leave Schanuel and Neto in full-time at this point to develop at the bigs, so they're set at 1B and SS. I would bring back Moustakas for depth. He obviously has a good rapport here already, fills a need, should be cheap, and has been relatively productive. I expect nothing from Rendon at this point. I would put Paris in AAA and let him continue developing there. Give Rengifo and Drury 3B and 2B, whichever seems the best fit. I've mentioned Rengifo as a trade candidate similarly to Sandoval/Canning, but to me, our offense is just too thin at this point, and there's nothing in FA/farm to really roll with, unless Paris just takes off in September (similar player for a similar role, IMO). Move Drury at the deadline (or Rengifo if Paris looks legit and Rengifo has a lot of interest). I don't see a single free agent infielder that really interests me. Maybe Isaiah Kiner-Falefa as a UT guy, and wouldn't be against bringing Urshela back either, but don't really need much there. 

Outfield
Trout needs to step out of CF and see if it helps keep him healthy. Have Torii talk with him this winter and remind him of that. Utilize Moniak, Adell, and Adams for one OF spot and the 4th outfield between them. Welcome Ward back - if he hits semi-decently again, trade him come deadline. Much like the infield, I don't really see any free agents here that intrigue me much. 

---

TLDR;
To me, trading one of Sandoval/Canning and Estevez is the way forward this winter. Try to return 2-4 MLB-ready players for those guys. Out of that, maybe ensure we have one legit pitching prospect and one legit hitting prospect come back between those. There's no money to spend, IMO, on any free agent hitters this winter outside of veteran mentor types (Moustakas, a vet back-up catcher) or perhaps some utility depth (Urshela, Kiner-Falefa). 

There is pitching to spend on. With the closer role opened up, sign a free agent who wants to close who maybe hasn't gotten the chance, or is old hat (Kimbrel, Robertson) purely with the intent of moving them and their experience mid-year. Go ahead and round out the bullpen with other cheap vets a la the Cishek/Watson route, again with the intent of moving them at the deadline. Leave some room for kids, but don't count on them. Treat these arms carefully. 

For the rotation, spend again with an intent to trade. I like drawing parallels to the Anderson deal because 1) if the SP is solid, the multi-year commitment boosts their value and 2) if the SP sucks, it isn't an albatross. Sign another guy like that. And then sign a high-risk/high-reward one-year deal guy, sort of like Syndergaard. Maybe it nets you a good prospect mid-year. If Ohtani does walk, I am not against the Halos trying to sign one of the big FA arms, but don't think that would be terribly bright at this time. 

Edited September 3, 2023 by totdprods

[greginpsca]

Trout has a full no trade clause. So if they want to trade him, it will have to be where Mike wants to go. And that only happens if the receiving team would agree to a trade.so, it might be tougher than we think to trade him.

[Jay]

You know shit is bad when fans start talking about trading Trout.

 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

Trout has a full no trade clause. So if they want to trade him, it will have to be where Mike wants to go. And that only happens if the receiving team would agree to a trade.so, it might be tougher than we think to trade him.

I imagine it would come down to something like the Yankees or Phillies. The Dodgers and Padres would probably be interested, but if Arte is around, zero friggin' chance he lets that happen. Orioles, Red Sox, Mets, and Rays would be on the next-tier of likeliness, for different reasons. Red Sox for East Coast + Storied Franchise + Money, Orioles for relative proximity to Philly and young, cheap core, Mets for money, and Rays, weirdly, because they've shown flashes of a willingness to have an expensive player at their core. Add to it they're consistently winning and possible loss of Franco, they may want someone to center their world around.  

I do not think a Trout trade is likely, a Trout trade would be easy, or a Trout trade would bring back a haul. I also do not think Trout requesting a trade is likely. 
I do however think that in the unlikely event Trout does ask for a trade, the above teams would be suitors and I do think given the magnitude of Trout's reputation, the teams/quietly the league would find a way to ensure it happens. 

Angels eat a big chunk of money, but still save money. Probably take back a big contract that isn't horrible but still poor value. Probably take back some fringey prospects or Jo Adell-type busted prospects who are being squeezed, a la Christian Pache. Might be good for Trout to get a change of scenery. Might be good for the Angels to get out from being under the constant pressure of 'winning now for Trout'. 

[mmc]

I'm surprised at how eager people are to point the finger at Arte, or Perry, or even Nevin for the failures of the team in August (and continuing into September).  Ultimately it was the players who completely shit the bed and way underperformed that they were capable of, and they need to bear most of the criticism and blame.  There's no excuse for them to play as poorly as they did after the trade deadline with the team we put together.  A truly epic failure on their part.

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, mmc said:

I'm surprised at how eager people are to point the finger at Arte, or Perry, or even Nevin for the failures of the team in August (and continuing into September).  Ultimately it was the players who completely shit the bed and way underperformed that they were capable of, and they need to bear most of the criticism and blame.  There's no excuse for them to play as poorly as they did after the trade deadline with the team we put together.  A truly epic failure on their part.

Yep. 

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, mmc said:

I'm surprised at how eager people are to point the finger at Arte, or Perry, or even Nevin for the failures of the team in August (and continuing into September).  Ultimately it was the players who completely shit the bed and way underperformed that they were capable of, and they need to bear most of the criticism and blame.  There's no excuse for them to play as poorly as they did after the trade deadline with the team we put together.  A truly epic failure on their part.

That's part of why I want them to publicly take a step back in '24 and drop these 'we have to win right now' expectations. I think these guys put too much pressure on themselves. And yeah, they want to be MLBers, they should be able to overcome that, but it's not a switch that's just flipped midseason. 

A lot of these guys barely have MILB experience. I like their attitude, but this org has been in 'win now for Trout' mode for a decade now, relying mostly on rushed minor leaguers.* That's been as constant a variable in this Trout window as has been having Arte as an owner or too many injured players. Let's cut that from the formula for a year and see what it does, especially with guys like O'Hoppe, Schanuel, and Neto, who all seem to have the absolute right personality for adversity. I'm not the biggest Nevin fan, Perry fan, or Arte fan, but I could still squint and see silver linings with all of those guys. Maybe just dropping the organizational expectation for a year or two would help. Let Nevin instill what he's learned to the new young core. Let Perry draft/sell to build for the future, as he's done well in that regard, and eliminate the need for him to trade depth for marginal improvements. Let Arte spend as he is capable of spending, but without the need of doing it to win right away. Let him spread the money around as dictated by Perry, much like this winter with numerous FAs instead of one big name.

*This is also why I keep beating the 'trade Sandoval' drum. Dude seems like he's on the verge of strokin' out on the bump half the time. I don't doubt that he's a gamer or that he has potential, but he really seems like someone who has gone into each season thinking he had to rise to the occasion and be an ace alongside Ohtani and when he isn't reaching that, he can't shake it. Or maybe he blossoms without that pressure, here or elsewhere.

Edited September 3, 2023 by totdprods

[Slegnaac]

12 hours ago, Tank said:

 i've appreciated listening to matt vasgersian about a gazillion times more than the little leaguer.

I like the gloss for O'Neal 

[gurn67]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

I imagine it would come down to something like the Yankees or Phillies. The Dodgers and Padres would probably be interested, but if Arte is around, zero friggin' chance he lets that happen. Orioles, Red Sox, Mets, and Rays would be on the next-tier of likeliness, for different reasons. Red Sox for East Coast + Storied Franchise + Money, Orioles for relative proximity to Philly and young, cheap core, Mets for money, and Rays, weirdly, because they've shown flashes of a willingness to have an expensive player at their core. Add to it they're consistently winning and possible loss of Franco, they may want someone to center their world around.  

I do not think a Trout trade is likely, a Trout trade would be easy, or a Trout trade would bring back a haul. I also do not think Trout requesting a trade is likely. 
I do however think that in the unlikely event Trout does ask for a trade, the above teams would be suitors and I do think given the magnitude of Trout's reputation, the teams/quietly the league would find a way to ensure it happens. 

Angels eat a big chunk of money, but still save money. Probably take back a big contract that isn't horrible but still poor value. Probably take back some fringey prospects or Jo Adell-type busted prospects who are being squeezed, a la Christian Pache. Might be good for Trout to get a change of scenery. Might be good for the Angels to get out from being under the constant pressure of 'winning now for Trout'. 

I don't think the Phillies are that dumb to take on the contract of a guy who is going to be a .800-.850 OPS guys for around 100 games per season at best. They hired the guy that Arte should have hired when he had the chance. The Yankees, on the other hand, are dumb enough. They've proven that they have no issue throwing money at over the hill veterans for decades now hoping they magically find the fountain of youth.

[totdprods]

25 minutes ago, gurn67 said:

I don't think the Phillies are that dumb to take on the contract of a guy who is going to be a .800-.850 OPS guys for around 100 games per season at best. They hired the guy that Arte should have hired when he had the chance. The Yankees, on the other hand, are dumb enough. They've proven that they have no issue throwing money at over the hill veterans for decades now hoping they magically find the fountain of youth.

Yeah, but he also has a history of making pretty big, bold moves. And I don’t think Mike Trout is necessarily cooked yet. Could see him changing scenery and being in Philly and around Harper help him. I’m not saying that’s guaranteed, but I don’t think it’s out of the question, and if he’s costing the Phillies only around $22-$30m annually instead of the $37m+ he’s currently making, an .850 OPS DH Trout still wouldn’t be bad, especially given his reputation and HOF career already in the books. 

Dombrowksi has made trades before that were not easy to consummate on paper. If anyone could do it in a way that was good for Philly, saved enough face for the Angels, and was with sufficient respect to the career and reputation of Trout in the eyes of the league and baseball as a whole, it could be Dombrowski.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 9/1/2023 at 10:40 AM, Stradling said:

Urias, Snell, Flaherty, Giolito, So it’s a pretty good pitching class. 

Unless, you're trading the Lefties currently in the rotation. There is no reason to add anymore Lefties. We need right handed starters to balance out the lefties.

[jsnpritchett]

On 9/1/2023 at 10:40 AM, Stradling said:

Urias, Snell, Flaherty, Giolito, So it’s a pretty good pitching class. 

Eh. Urias is having an inconsistent year, though I still like him overall. Flaherty hasn't been good at all (check out that walk rate) and clearly isn't fully back from his injury. And I think you know how I feel about Giolito. 

Have a feeling there are going to be a lot of really bad-looking contracts from this free agent class within a year or two. 

[BTH]

3 hours ago, mmc said:

I'm surprised at how eager people are to point the finger at Arte, or Perry, or even Nevin for the failures of the team in August (and continuing into September).  Ultimately it was the players who completely shit the bed and way underperformed that they were capable of, and they need to bear most of the criticism and blame.  There's no excuse for them to play as poorly as they did after the trade deadline with the team we put together.  A truly epic failure on their part.

I was pointing the finger at Nevin long before August, which is why I continue to blame him for being part of the problem.

Yeah, the players blew it. But you have to focus on how to get better. So in trying to figure that out, you look at who brought in those losing players (Perry) and the support staff around the underperforming/injured players (medical staff, coaches, front office, etc.)

[Stradling]

44 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Unless, you're trading the Lefties currently in the rotation. There is no reason to add anymore Lefties. We need right handed starters to balance out the lefties.

Of course there’s a reason.  They are very good major league pitchers. 

[mmc]

2 minutes ago, BTH said:

I was pointing the finger at Nevin long before August, which is why I continue to blame him for being part of the problem.

Yeah, the players blew it. But you have to focus on how to get better. So in trying to figure that out, you look at who brought in those losing players (Perry) and the support staff around the underperforming/injured players (medical staff, coaches, front office, etc.)

I don't care either way about Nevin since he is due a new contract.  I think firing Perry would be incredibly idiotic as he has brought in quite a bit of young talent that is making an impact both in the majors and minor leagues, has done relatively well in free agency despite being limited by Arte and hasn't given us any awful contracts that are anchors and has done well in a lot of trades, and even the ones that flopped I think were worthwhile gambles.