15 Wins a Month

[Hubs]

Everyone says they just have to get to 15 wins a month and they'll be at 90 wins for the season. That's true, of course, as 6 x 15 = 90. Yet the 23 games in July make that a 15-8 record, versus something like 15-13 in other months.

Therefore, they have to win 16 or 17 some months and keep July at that (15-12 pace or a .555 wpct) which is really just shy of 13 wins.

But they are 11-6 in 17 games in June, so they could win that 15th game as early as Saturday this week, with 7 games left in the month of June.

With 10 games remaining, and 7 of those against < .500 teams they have a real shot to win 17, 18, or even 19 this month, to go along with 15 wins in April/March (15-14), and 15 wins in May (15-13).

[Hubs]

Also, can I say the scheduling sucks. At this point in the season, with no rainouts, there is no reason why Seattle should've played 4 less games than the Angels, nor should the Rangers have played three less games. One or Two I understand, but 4?

 

[Swordsman78]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

Also, can I say the scheduling sucks. At this point in the season, with no rainouts, there is no reason why Seattle should've played 4 less games than the Angels, nor should the Rangers have played three less games. One or Two I understand, but 4?

 

Fortunately the halos have navigated the schedule pretty well.  This is a good week to heal up, and comes at imo the perfect time with Neto and Rendon out anyway.

[Hubs]

4 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Fortunately the halos have navigated the schedule pretty well.  This is a good week to heal up, and comes at imo the perfect time with Neto and Rendon out anyway.

Agreed. I just don't understand it. They need to bring back the manual scheduling.  The computer just schedules games based on pre-set parameters, when it was done manually, they never had this type of unbalanced, plus there were no cross country trips without a day off. And you wouldn't have trips that played two opponents a thousand plus miles away, like the upcoming Detroit to Toronto to Atlanta trip or the Tampa Bay to Minnesota trip.

 

 

[Taylor]

I've never heard anyone say this.

[Hubs]

44 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I've never heard anyone say this.

Well ok then, you haven't ever heard it so no one ever says it. LOL.

The Locked On Angels guys say it at least twice a week.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Well ok then, you haven't ever heard it so no one ever says it. LOL.

The Locked On Angels guys say it at least twice a week.

Lock on Angels is very repetitive.

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

Well ok then, you haven't ever heard it so no one ever says it. LOL.

The Locked On Angels guys say it at least twice a week.

Those are the two guys that made up a story about Arte telling Minasian to let Nevin do his job. A complete fabricated story with no credible source. So, they say a lot of stuff. 

[Stradling]

7 hours ago, Hubs said:

Everyone says they just have to get to 15 wins a month and they'll be at 90 wins for the season. That's true, of course, as 6 x 15 = 90. Yet the 23 games in July make that a 15-8 record, versus something like 15-13 in other months.

Therefore, they have to win 16 or 17 some months and keep July at that (15-12 pace or a .555 wpct) which is really just shy of 13 wins.

But they are 11-6 in 17 games in June, so they could win that 15th game as early as Saturday this week, with 7 games left in the month of June.

With 10 games remaining, and 7 of those against < .500 teams they have a real shot to win 17, 18, or even 19 this month, to go along with 15 wins in April/March (15-14), and 15 wins in May (15-13).

Great point, for five months you have to win 55% of your games and in one month you’d have to win 68%. 

[Second Base]

[Hubs]

Angels are 13-10 this month with 4 left, so hopefully 15 happens, but as I said earlier, they need to do 16 or 17 a few months to account for the lower number of games in July.

Angels were 15-14 in April/March, 15-13 in May, and 13-10. 4 left this month and they play 23 in July.

Rangers were 17-11 in April  18-9 in May, and are 12-11 this month. 4 left this month and the Rangers play 24 in July. They will have played 

Astros were 15-13 in April, 17-10 in May, and are 10-13 this moth. 4 left this month and the Astros play 25 in July.

 

At the Trade Deadline, if the Angels have 60 wins, they'd be 60-47. That would mean a record of 7 over in the next 27, so 17-10, which is optimistic but doable. Hopefully though they are a game or two better.

To go 60-47, the Rangers only have to win 13, but if they go 13-15, they'd be at 60-46 as they will have played one less game than the Angels and Astros. 

To go 60-47, the Astros will have to win 18, going 18-11, which is as optimistic as the Angels record. Still doable, I guess.

 

It's shaping up to be one heck of a race. 

 

[totdprods]

One thing to consider this deadline…even though the Astros and Rangers are ahead of us and very much in it, I would think both of those front offices would not have anywhere near the sense of urgency the Angels have.

The Rangers spent a bunch of money, sure, but they’re being buoyed by some nice young players and have a decent farm. With deGrom out and their relatively fragile rotation starting to shake a little, you could argue it’s best they save their bullets and hope for better days in 2024+, especially with the Astros looking vulnerable for the first time in years, the Angels potentially stepping back if they’re out Ohtani and Trout doesn’t find himself, the Mariners shaky…their best bet may he hold the line and see if they can cling to the division. They’re in better shape for the next few years if they somewhat stand-pat this year.

The Astros farm has really taken a hit in recent years and they’re truly limping through right now. Similarly, they may be better off taking their chances, standing pat, and hoping for a big, healthy rebound in 2024.

The Mariners wheels might be coming off. Wouldn’t surprise me if Jerry shook up and traded a bunch again.

tl;dr: The Angels really are in a good spot in the race and also have all the incentive to go for broke this year, and the Rangers and Astros might be better off letting the Angels risk their 2024+  youngster depth and hope for the best with what they have. If that idea holds, the Angels should have a much stronger team in August and September as a result.

[Blarg]

The Angels are 14-10 with three more games to play this month. Two more with the White Sox and one with the Diamondbacks. 

[arch stanton]

They've made it to the exact halfway point with 44 wins. In doing this they've totally remade the look of the bullpen and survived poor stretches from Sandoval and Detmers and the worst slump of Trout's career. It isn't unreasonable to expect 48 wins in the 2nd half which gets them to 92 on the season.

Personally, I think they're capable of 50 or more and a legit run at the division. The team all believes they're in it and management is showing the will to make tough decisions and seek improvements.With Houston and Seattle showing cracks and the beasts from the east showing the same this seems like a good year to go for it. None of the other AL teams would scare me in a playoff series

Edited June 28, 2023 by arch stanton

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 6/19/2023 at 11:24 AM, Hubs said:

Agreed. I just don't understand it. They need to bring back the manual scheduling.  The computer just schedules games based on pre-set parameters, when it was done manually, they never had this type of unbalanced, plus there were no cross country trips without a day off. And you wouldn't have trips that played two opponents a thousand plus miles away, like the upcoming Detroit to Toronto to Atlanta trip or the Tampa Bay to Minnesota trip.

 

 

Nothing in this post is true. 
 

I just picked a random schedule (the 1980 Angels) and it had all of the things you said didn’t exist. 
 

Honestly, the schedule gets better and more logical every year. I know this because it keeps getting harder for me to make Platinum with my miles (more efficient grouping of cities on road trips).

[Swordsman78]

From June 25 - July 23 or so, I don't think the Angels will need to get on a plane. 
 

All games at home or SD and LA

Great opportunity to make a nice run 

[Hubs]

10 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Nothing in this post is true. 
 

I just picked a random schedule (the 1980 Angels) and it had all of the things you said didn’t exist. 
 

Honestly, the schedule gets better and more logical every year. I know this because it keeps getting harder for me to make Platinum with my miles (more efficient grouping of cities on road trips).

I stand corrected. Before Houston was added to the AL West, I don't remember the scheduling being that bad. Since....I think its worse.

[Hubs]

Wondered if the 2002 team did 15 wins a month, they won 99, but lets see what their records were by month.

April 11-14 ... This year 15-14

May 19-7.... This year 15-13

June 17-12... This year 14-11

July 16-10

August 18-11

Sept 18-9

 

[BTH]

the formula isn't perfect, and these aren't hard and fast rules, but now that's kinda the expectation after Rendon said it.

If they lose today and tomorrow, that doesn't really mean anything. But also, this was an easier month on the schedule and it'd be tough to come up one win short of the stated goal for the month. It would mean they'll have to make it up in the future, when they have a more difficult schedule.

[Angel Oracle]

It’s up to Canning and the offense to keep the 15 wins thing going.

[totdprods]

They can still finish with 12 wins in July, which seemed absolutely unlikely a couple weeks ago, especially with the ASB.

[GrittyVeterans]

Need 17 in August and Sept to make a run at it

lets do it

[Slegnaac]

2 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Need 17 in August and Sept to make a run at it

lets do it

August need to go 17 - 10

September need to go 17 - 10

 

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Slegnaac said:

August need to go 17 - 10

September need to go 17 - 10

 

27-0 in August, 7-20 in Sept.

[Swordsman78]

5 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

August need to go 17 - 10

September need to go 17 - 10

 

Doable