AngelsWin Today: Dissecting Mike Trout and why you should not worry

[AngelsWin.com]

First off let's just get right to the point. Mike Trout while he's older and will never be the player he was in his younger 20's and prime years, he is not someone that is in steep decline as some have suggest on social media and our community forum, he's just off at this time.

Let's take a closer look. 

As you can see below, Trout has been missing, as his exit velocities have been down the last three weeks, but the underlying data is still really strong.

People have been saying that Mike Trout can no longer hit the fastball, but here's what you need to look at.

As you can see his xSLG (expected SLG% of 541 on fastballs is a lot better than his actual SLG, and his exit velocities have been pretty much in line with his career numbers off fastballs --  as is his hard hit% as you will see here.

Year	Pitch Type	Team	RV/100	Run Value	Pitches	%	PA	BA	SLG	wOBA	Whiff%	K%	PutAway %	xBA	xSLG	xwOBA	Hard Hit %
2023	4-Seamer		0.6	2	350	46.1	68	.220	.458	.352	31.2	30.9	20.0	.263	.558	.390	52.6
2023	Sinker		-2.3	-2	108	14.2	27	.227	.227	.296	24.0	22.2	27.3	.246	.323	.330	18.8
2023	Slider		5.7	5	90	11.9	26	.417	.708	.498	35.3	34.6	28.1	.269	.499	.352	46.7
2023	Curveball		2.3	1	51	6.7	9	.167	.667	.456	50.0	22.2	20.0	.239	.661	.479	100.0
2023	Sweeper		-2.8	-1	44	5.8	15	.200	.267	.203	23.8	26.7	25.0	.221	.284	.218	36.4
2023	Cutter		3.5	2	43	5.7	13	.417	1.083	.569	22.2	23.1	37.5	.348	.857	.489	80.0
2023	Changeup		3.8	2	41	5.4	11	.500	.600	.505	19.0	9.1	6.3	.544	.791	.581	55.6
2023	Splitter		-1.6	0	23	3.0	7	.167	.167	.229	30.0	28.6	16.7	.200	.225	.260	25.0
2023	Slurve		-11.1	-1	9	1.2	3	.000	.000	.000	25.0	0.0	0.0	.237	.256	.216	33.3
2022	4-Seamer		1.8	16	903	42.9	190	.265	.560	.396	31.0	32.1	20.4	.237	.545	.375	52.8
2022	Slider		1.9	7	355	16.9	78	.292	.694	.431	36.0	26.9	17.6	.253	.573	.376	43.1
2022	Sinker		2.4	8	337	16.0	97	.311	.600	.445	16.7	19.6	27.5	.315	.576	.405	47.9
2022	Cutter		4.2	6	146	6.9	37	.321	.893	.546	24.6	16.2	15.8	.365	.817	.552	59.1
2022	Changeup		3.1	4	143	6.8	41	.324	.757	.473	33.3	24.4	15.2	.298	.659	.437	51.9
2022	Curveball		-0.6	-1	139	6.6	28	.200	.560	.354	41.0	42.9	33.3	.187	.526	.342	53.8
2022	Sweeper		1.6	1	64	3.0	16	.250	.500	.316	45.2	50.0	38.1	.221	.491	.302	75.0
2022	Splitter		-2.6	0	15	0.7	3	.000	.000	.000	44.4	66.7	22.2	.002	.002	.002	0.0
2022	Slurve		-0.5	0	2	0.1		--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
2021	4-Seamer		3.3	9	271	44.4	57	.419	.744	.546	21.7	22.8	16.7	.328	.703	.497	50.0
2021	Slider		2.5	3	117	19.2	22	.350	.900	.532	46.9	40.9	28.1	.336	.786	.488	45.5
2021	Sinker		-0.4	0	87	14.3	29	.292	.333	.350	8.6	10.3	15.8	.359	.436	.405	61.9
2021	Cutter		1.6	1	53	8.7	11	.333	.556	.480	23.8	18.2	11.8	.336	.450	.408	57.1
2021	Changeup		6.7	2	34	5.6	9	.333	.889	.500	27.8	55.6	26.3	.190	.542	.305	25.0
2021	Curveball		-2.1	-1	28	4.6	6	.167	.333	.208	60.0	66.7	57.1	.194	.291	.204	100.0
2021	Sweeper		-4.4	-1	13	2.1	4	.000	.000	.175	33.3	50.0	50.0	.026	.030	.194	0.0
2021	Splitter		-6.9	0	5	0.8	3	.000	.000	.000	100.0	100.0	60.0	--	--	.000	--
2021	Slurve		0.0	0	2	0.3		--	--	--	--	--	0.0	--	--	--	--
2020	4-Seamer		1.6	7	424	41.4	89	.292	.542	.424	14.8	20.2	12.7	.296	.594	.439	58.9
2020	Sinker		2.1	4	173	16.9	45	.325	.600	.457	13.2	13.3	14.6	.387	.711	.489	50.0
2020	Slider		0.6	1	165	16.1	43	.211	.579	.350	27.9	32.6	21.9	.174	.389	.289	36.0
2020	Curveball		4.8	5	98	9.6	26	.300	.900	.512	34.6	34.6	27.3	.305	.951	.530	58.3
2020	Cutter		1.0	1	91	8.9	17	.250	.500	.391	12.1	29.4	20.8	.240	.502	.335	72.7
2020	Changeup		1.1	1	48	4.7	14	.273	.727	.471	34.8	21.4	15.0	.353	.721	.498	75.0
2020	Splitter		2.7	0	18	1.8	3	.500	.500	.533	25.0	33.3	9.1	.387	.451	.475	100.0
2020	Sweeper		4.3	0	6	0.6		--	--	--	100.0	--	0.0	--	--	--	--

Looking at the data it appears it's been sinkers that have been hurting him and looking at his LD and FB rates overall it may be he's simply topping some pitches as his FB rate is a bit down from where it's been in recent years while his LD rate is the highest it's been since 2019.  Normally a strong LD rate is a good thing but in Mike's case it may be a sign of his being just a tad off and not getting his usual lift.

Mike Trout through the first 40 games played over his career:

2012: .354/.412/.565

2013: .293/.364/.549

2014: .269/.357/.531

2015: .288/.386/.555

2016: .320/.408/.567

2017: .350/.466/.757

2018: .315/.450/.650

2019: .278/.449/.541

2020: .303/.400/.665

2021: .333/.466/.624 (36 games)

2022: .319/.425/.674

2023: .275/.364/.506 (coming into today's May 18th, 2023 game)

Basically it's a spotty 40-game stretch and he's done this before, only it's happening at the start of the year instead of 40 games in.

In conclusion we need about 60-70 games of data to see what's noise and what's an actual development.  People tend to be very reactive to traditional stats but it's the predictive stuff we need to focus on that I highlighted above.  We made these arguments regarding Anthony Rendon before he started mashing, pointing to the same exact data.  

Mike Trout has too much talent, physical ability and an incredible work ethic in a constant effort to improve his game on a daily basis, but like with the best of them, Hall of Famers of yesteryear, they've all gone through tough stretches.

The GOAT went yard off a 96 MPH four seamer last night up in the zone. Stop worrying and let the man cook. 

EDIT: As I was publishing this Blog, Mike Trout just went deep again.

LET TROUT COOK. 

View the full article

[Chuck]

 

[Chuck]

Updated Savant page for Trout looks a ton better since this article was published. 

[Angelsjunky]

Hopefully he's warming up with an HR in each of his last two games. 

In fact, I'm almost more impressed by a single in an 0-2 count than an HR. 

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Hopefully he's warming up with an HR in each of his last two games. 

In fact, I'm almost more impressed by a single in an 0-2 count than an HR. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

In fact, I'm almost more impressed by a single in an 0-2 count than an HR. 

Same.

I'm sure it's just my imagination, he seems lately like he's swinging for the fences, with an uppercut swing every time. I'm probably an idiot for seeing that. But I'd like to see him start stringing together solid line drives, whether they leave the yard or not.

[Taylor]

Hopefully this thread doesn't become infamous.

[T.G.]

We all decline with age.  Heck, @Tank was much funnier five years ago.  And then there's @Blarg who has never been funny, and only gets crankier with each year.

[Angelsjunky]

35 minutes ago, T.G. said:

We all decline with age.  Heck, @Tank was much funnier five years ago.  And then there's @Blarg who has never been funny, and only gets crankier with each year.

Don't forget @cals, who hasn't picked on me for being homeless/unemployed/socialist since 2022, or made a racist/sexist/bigoted remark for at least a few months. He's almost nice now, Woke even.

Almost.

Edited May 18, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[cals]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Don't forget @cals, who hasn't picked on me for being homeless/unemployed/socialist since 2022, or made a racist/sexist/bigoted remark for at least a few months. He's almost nice now, Woke even.

Almost.

Cut your hair, hippy. 

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, cals said:

Cut your hair, hippy. 

You should have seen my afro when I was in my early 20s. 

[cals]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

You should have seen my afro when I was in my early 20s. 

There’s nothing I hate more than white people with curly hair.  Hate them.

[Lou]

37 minutes ago, cals said:

There’s nothing I hate more than white people with curly hair.  Hate them.

Stopped reading at people.

[notherhalo]

I wonder who will do better from age 31+ from here

Trout or Pujols

[Chuck]

7 minutes ago, notherhalo said:

I wonder who will do better from age 31+ from here

Trout or Pujols

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, cals said:

There’s nothing I hate more than white people with curly hair.  Hate them.

Is that because white people with curly hair aren't truly/fully white? 

[cals]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Is that because white people with curly hair aren't truly/fully white? 

[Jason]

I’m a lot more worried about the team as a whole than I am about Trout 

[Chuck]

37 minutes ago, Jason said:

I’m a lot more worried about the team as a whole than I am about Trout 

You shouldn't. They're underperforming. 

[Tank]

8 hours ago, T.G. said:

We all decline with age.  Heck, @Tank was much funnier five years ago.  And then there's @Blarg who has never been funny, and only gets crankier with each year.

jealousy is not your best trait.

[T.G.]

7 hours ago, Tank said:

jealousy is not your best trait.

It's top 5 though 

[Chuck]

Back to the topic of discussion..

The moral of the story is there's more to a players struggles than just their recent slash line and missing on certain pitches. Dig into the data and you'll find if the player is on a serious decline and cooked, or just simply off with their timing, swing path and mechanics. That goes for both hitters and pitchers alike.

[Chuck]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

Back to the topic of discussion..

The moral of the story is there's more to a players struggles than just their recent slash line and missing on certain pitches. Dig into the data and you'll find if the player is on a serious decline and cooked, or just simply off with their timing, swing path and mechanics. That goes for both hitters and pitchers alike.

I've been learning offline from one of the bests. @Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Back to the topic of discussion..

The moral of the story is there's more to a players struggles than just their recent slash line and missing on certain pitches. Dig into the data and you'll find if the player is on a serious decline and cooked, or just simply off with their timing, swing path and mechanics. That goes for both hitters and pitchers alike.

Predictive data is always better.  There is value to counting data and triple slash rates, but attempting to find out WHY those numbers are what they are gives us greater insight in the long run. 

 

[T.G.]

@Inside Pitch is great, but he's no Joe Maddon.