First off let's just get right to the point. Mike Trout while he's older and will never be the player he was in his younger 20's and prime years, he is not someone that is in steep decline as some have suggest on social media and our community forum, he's just off at this time.

Let's take a closer look. 

As you can see below, Trout has been missing, as his exit velocities have been down the last three weeks, but the underlying data is still really strong.

People have been saying that Mike Trout can no longer hit the fastball, but here's what you need to look at.

As you can see his xSLG (expected SLG% of 541 on fastballs is a lot better than his actual SLG, and his exit velocities have been pretty much in line with his career numbers off fastballs --  as is his hard hit% as you will see here.

Looking at the data it appears it's been sinkers that have been hurting him and looking at his LD and FB rates overall it may be he's simply topping some pitches as his FB rate is a bit down from where it's been in recent years while his LD rate is the highest it's been since 2019.  Normally a strong LD rate is a good thing but in Mike's case it may be a sign of his being just a tad off and not getting his usual lift.

Mike Trout through the first 40 games played over his career:

2012: .354/.412/.565

2013: .293/.364/.549

2014: .269/.357/.531

2015: .288/.386/.555

2016: .320/.408/.567

2017: .350/.466/.757

2018: .315/.450/.650

2019: .278/.449/.541

2020: .303/.400/.665

2021: .333/.466/.624 (36 games)

2022: .319/.425/.674

2023: .275/.364/.506 (coming into today's May 18th, 2023 game)

Basically it's a spotty 40-game stretch and he's done this before, only it's happening at the start of the year instead of 40 games in.

In conclusion we need about 60-70 games of data to see what's noise and what's an actual development.  People tend to be very reactive to traditional stats but it's the predictive stuff we need to focus on that I highlighted above.  We made these arguments regarding Anthony Rendon before he started mashing, pointing to the same exact data.  

Mike Trout has too much talent, physical ability and an incredible work ethic in a constant effort to improve his game on a daily basis, but like with the best of them, Hall of Famers of yesteryear, they've all gone through tough stretches.

The GOAT went yard off a 96 MPH four seamer last night up in the zone. Stop worrying and let the man cook. 

EDIT: As I was publishing this Blog, Mike Trout just went deep again (May 18th, 2023)

LET TROUT COOK.