Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to comment and join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. If you become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

Dissecting Mike Trout and why you should not worry


Chuck

972 views

Los-Angeles-Angels-Mike-Trout-1040x572.jpg

First off let's just get right to the point. Mike Trout while he's older and will never be the player he was in his younger 20's and prime years, he is not someone that is in steep decline as some have suggest on social media and our community forum, he's just off at this time.

Let's take a closer look. 

As you can see below, Trout has been missing, as his exit velocities have been down the last three weeks, but the underlying data is still really strong.

image.png.c4cfda48e84d48aa507f0380c336f221.png

People have been saying that Mike Trout can no longer hit the fastball, but here's what you need to look at.

image.png

As you can see his xSLG (expected SLG% of 541 on fastballs is a lot better than his actual SLG, and his exit velocities have been pretty much in line with his career numbers off fastballs --  as is his hard hit% as you will see here.

Year
Pitch Type
Team
RV/100
Run Value
Pitches
%
PA
BA
SLG
wOBA
Whiff%
K%
PutAway %
xBA
xSLG
xwOBA
Hard Hit %
2023
4-Seamer
 
0.6
2
350
46.1
68
.220
.458
.352
31.2
30.9
20.0
.263
.558
.390
52.6
2023
Sinker
 
-2.3
-2
108
14.2
27
.227
.227
.296
24.0
22.2
27.3
.246
.323
.330
18.8
2023
Slider
 
5.7
5
90
11.9
26
.417
.708
.498
35.3
34.6
28.1
.269
.499
.352
46.7
2023
Curveball
 
2.3
1
51
6.7
9
.167
.667
.456
50.0
22.2
20.0
.239
.661
.479
100.0
2023
Sweeper
 
-2.8
-1
44
5.8
15
.200
.267
.203
23.8
26.7
25.0
.221
.284
.218
36.4
2023
Cutter
 
3.5
2
43
5.7
13
.417
1.083
.569
22.2
23.1
37.5
.348
.857
.489
80.0
2023
Changeup
 
3.8
2
41
5.4
11
.500
.600
.505
19.0
9.1
6.3
.544
.791
.581
55.6
2023
Splitter
 
-1.6
0
23
3.0
7
.167
.167
.229
30.0
28.6
16.7
.200
.225
.260
25.0
2023
Slurve
 
-11.1
-1
9
1.2
3
.000
.000
.000
25.0
0.0
0.0
.237
.256
.216
33.3
2022
4-Seamer
 
1.8
16
903
42.9
190
.265
.560
.396
31.0
32.1
20.4
.237
.545
.375
52.8
2022
Slider
 
1.9
7
355
16.9
78
.292
.694
.431
36.0
26.9
17.6
.253
.573
.376
43.1
2022
Sinker
 
2.4
8
337
16.0
97
.311
.600
.445
16.7
19.6
27.5
.315
.576
.405
47.9
2022
Cutter
 
4.2
6
146
6.9
37
.321
.893
.546
24.6
16.2
15.8
.365
.817
.552
59.1
2022
Changeup
 
3.1
4
143
6.8
41
.324
.757
.473
33.3
24.4
15.2
.298
.659
.437
51.9
2022
Curveball
 
-0.6
-1
139
6.6
28
.200
.560
.354
41.0
42.9
33.3
.187
.526
.342
53.8
2022
Sweeper
 
1.6
1
64
3.0
16
.250
.500
.316
45.2
50.0
38.1
.221
.491
.302
75.0
2022
Splitter
 
-2.6
0
15
0.7
3
.000
.000
.000
44.4
66.7
22.2
.002
.002
.002
0.0
2022
Slurve
 
-0.5
0
2
0.1
 
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
2021
4-Seamer
 
3.3
9
271
44.4
57
.419
.744
.546
21.7
22.8
16.7
.328
.703
.497
50.0
2021
Slider
 
2.5
3
117
19.2
22
.350
.900
.532
46.9
40.9
28.1
.336
.786
.488
45.5
2021
Sinker
 
-0.4
0
87
14.3
29
.292
.333
.350
8.6
10.3
15.8
.359
.436
.405
61.9
2021
Cutter
 
1.6
1
53
8.7
11
.333
.556
.480
23.8
18.2
11.8
.336
.450
.408
57.1
2021
Changeup
 
6.7
2
34
5.6
9
.333
.889
.500
27.8
55.6
26.3
.190
.542
.305
25.0
2021
Curveball
 
-2.1
-1
28
4.6
6
.167
.333
.208
60.0
66.7
57.1
.194
.291
.204
100.0
2021
Sweeper
 
-4.4
-1
13
2.1
4
.000
.000
.175
33.3
50.0
50.0
.026
.030
.194
0.0
2021
Splitter
 
-6.9
0
5
0.8
3
.000
.000
.000
100.0
100.0
60.0
--
--
.000
--
2021
Slurve
 
0.0
0
2
0.3
 
--
--
--
--
--
0.0
--
--
--
--
2020
4-Seamer
 
1.6
7
424
41.4
89
.292
.542
.424
14.8
20.2
12.7
.296
.594
.439
58.9
2020
Sinker
 
2.1
4
173
16.9
45
.325
.600
.457
13.2
13.3
14.6
.387
.711
.489
50.0
2020
Slider
 
0.6
1
165
16.1
43
.211
.579
.350
27.9
32.6
21.9
.174
.389
.289
36.0
2020
Curveball
 
4.8
5
98
9.6
26
.300
.900
.512
34.6
34.6
27.3
.305
.951
.530
58.3
2020
Cutter
 
1.0
1
91
8.9
17
.250
.500
.391
12.1
29.4
20.8
.240
.502
.335
72.7
2020
Changeup
 
1.1
1
48
4.7
14
.273
.727
.471
34.8
21.4
15.0
.353
.721
.498
75.0
2020
Splitter
 
2.7
0
18
1.8
3
.500
.500
.533
25.0
33.3
9.1
.387
.451
.475
100.0
2020
Sweeper
 
4.3
0
6
0.6
 
--
--
--
100.0
--
0.0
--
--
--
--

Looking at the data it appears it's been sinkers that have been hurting him and looking at his LD and FB rates overall it may be he's simply topping some pitches as his FB rate is a bit down from where it's been in recent years while his LD rate is the highest it's been since 2019.  Normally a strong LD rate is a good thing but in Mike's case it may be a sign of his being just a tad off and not getting his usual lift.

Mike Trout through the first 40 games played over his career:

2012: .354/.412/.565

2013: .293/.364/.549

2014: .269/.357/.531

2015: .288/.386/.555

2016: .320/.408/.567

2017: .350/.466/.757

2018: .315/.450/.650

2019: .278/.449/.541

2020: .303/.400/.665

2021: .333/.466/.624 (36 games)

2022: .319/.425/.674

2023: .275/.364/.506 (coming into today's May 18th, 2023 game)

Basically it's a spotty 40-game stretch and he's done this before, only it's happening at the start of the year instead of 40 games in.

In conclusion we need about 60-70 games of data to see what's noise and what's an actual development.  People tend to be very reactive to traditional stats but it's the predictive stuff we need to focus on that I highlighted above.  We made these arguments regarding Anthony Rendon before he started mashing, pointing to the same exact data.  

Mike Trout has too much talent, physical ability and an incredible work ethic in a constant effort to improve his game on a daily basis, but like with the best of them, Hall of Famers of yesteryear, they've all gone through tough stretches.

The GOAT went yard off a 96 MPH four seamer last night up in the zone. Stop worrying and let the man cook. 

EDIT: As I was publishing this Blog, Mike Trout just went deep again (May 18th, 2023)

LET TROUT COOK. 

3 Comments


Recommended Comments

It makes little or no sense to ever bench a healthy player like Mike Trout has said he is, who after being on a home run drought for days he begins to heat up and hits HR two days in a row and then he is benched!

This must be  coming from the ownership the GM and  Nevin . At the least bench Ohtani and play Trout as DH when he has a hot bat. Since he was benched for a game he has gone cold again.

Totally absurd considering trout is supposed to be the best player in baseball.

Link to comment
Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...