Are we all a little disgusted tonight?

[stormngt]

18 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

Drury should know how to bunt.  But he doesn't so you don't ask him to.  It's that simple.  Lose the game by putting your players in their best position to succeed.  They might as well have asked Rendon and Renfroe to double steal.  It makes almost as much sense as asking a guy who has zero sacrifices to sacrifice.  

I guess pitch hitting was out of the question?

[stormngt]

7 hours ago, Stradling said:

In that situation the math says it increases your chances of scoring one run and decreases your chances of scoring multiple runs. 

If you move both runners in scoring position.  A single base hit wins the game.   An out in play most likely ties the game. 

Not moving the runners means you need two hits (or one walk and a hit) to win the game.

We don't need 3 runs.   Only 2 to win and one to go to extra innings 

Edited May 12, 2023 by stormngt

[Stradling]

35 minutes ago, stormngt said:

If you move both runners in scoring position.  A single base hit wins the game.   An out in play most likely ties the game. 

Not moving the runnersvmeans you need two hits (or one walk and a hit) to win the game.

We don't need 3 runs.   Only 2 to win and one to go to extra innings 

 

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

@Trendon

 

[REDneck]

Time to move on from this this thread. I wave the white flag.

Interesting thread. The game is different now and has effected even the casual fan...No one wants to see a bunt these days.

I'm old school and maintain that the runners should of been moved along yesterday.

Lets go Custer on the tribe tmrw...is that offensive?

 

 

[Angels 1961]

59 minutes ago, REDneck said:

Time to move on from this this thread. I wave the white flag.

Interesting thread. The game is different now and has effected even the casual fan...No one wants to see a bunt these days.

I'm old school and maintain that the runners should of been moved along yesterday.

Lets go Custer on the tribe tmrw...is that offensive?

 

 

You should guard what you say

[Blarg]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

@Trendon shared something recently on Twitter. My chart is a little older and I haven’t looked at more recent data. 

What's the run expectancy when the batter is hitting .174/.208/.435/.643?

I'll take one run and keep the game going instead of none but look like you made the statistically correct decision not to bunt. 

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

I guess pitch hitting was out of the question?

We only pitch hit when Ohtani is on the mound.

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

 

 

By your own stats, the odds are better to score one run if we bunted.

We lost by one.  Thus we lost because we didn't bunt.  Thanks for proving my point.

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

By your own stats, the odds are better to score one run if we bunted.

We lost by one.  Thus we lost because we didn't bunt.  Thanks for proving my point.

No.  We decreased our chance to tie by not bunting. You are assuming even if we tied it we then would have gone on to win. So no I didn’t prove your point. Also assuming Thaiss would put together a good at bat against Presley is silly, you know, since he didn’t with one out and runners on 1st and 2nd.  

[stormngt]

12 hours ago, Stradling said:

No.  We decreased our chance to tie by not bunting. You are assuming even if we tied it we then would have gone on to win. So no I didn’t prove your point. Also assuming Thaiss would put together a good at bat against Presley is silly, you know, since he didn’t with one out and runners on 1st and 2nd.  

No, I am saying when you are losing, you have to tie a game  before you can win it.

[Stradling]

28 minutes ago, stormngt said:

No, I am saying when you are losing, you have to tie a game  before you can win it.

Ok. If you said that I’d 100% agree with it. I have no idea who they’d bring in to bunt but two days earlier the guy up hit a triple to tie the game late in the game. 

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Ok. If you said that I’d 100% agree with it. I have no idea who they’d bring in to bunt but two days earlier the guy up hit a triple to tie the game late in the game. 

Both Rengifo and Phillips both could bunt.

And it's not about the quality hitter the Drury maybe.  It's about the safest way to tie the game first and then go for win second.

 

[Stradling]

19 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Both Rengifo and Phillips both could bunt.

And it's not about the quality hitter the Drury maybe.  It's about the safest way to tie the game first and then go for win second.

 

And yet the game disagrees with you. With strike outs at an all time high it’s anything but a sure thing to give up an out to possibly advance the runners. 

[stormngt]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

And yet the game disagrees with you. With strike outs at an all time high it’s anything but a sure thing to give up an out to possibly advance the runners. 

However by your own stats the odds of the tying the game greatly increases with the bunt 

[Stradling]

Just now, stormngt said:

However by your own stats the odds of the tying the game greatly increases with the bunt 

I agree. 

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, stormngt said:

However by your own stats the odds of the tying the game greatly increases with the bunt 

Interesting. You spend a lot of time telling people how you can't just look at stats. 

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Interesting. You spend a lot of time telling people how you can't just look at stats. 

You right.  I say advanced stat shouldn't be taken as gospel.  However, moving the runners into scoring position is not using advanced stats.

And it was straddling who was rebutting more argument by using stats.

You need to follow the conversation to know context of what people are saying.

[Revad]

What ever happened to play for a tie at home and a win on the road?

[Swordsman78]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

Ok. If you said that I’d 100% agree with it. I have no idea who they’d bring in to bunt but two days earlier the guy up hit a triple to tie the game late in the game. 

Some times you post intelligent takes, and other times not so much.  This one was a keeper

[Stradling]

23 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Some times you post intelligent takes, and other times not so much.  This one was a keeper

Look every time you disagree with me is when I rightly call you out for being an idiot. 

[REDneck]

Glad this thread is not accurate tonight.

I was worried it was going to grow legs and keep on walking.

[AngelsLakersFan]

19 hours ago, Lou said:

Interesting. You spend a lot of time telling people how you can't just look at stats. 

Only when they disagree with him.

[AngelsLakersFan]

18 hours ago, stormngt said:

You right.  I say advanced stat shouldn't be taken as gospel.  However, moving the runners into scoring position is not using advanced stats.

And it was straddling who was rebutting more argument by using stats.

You need to follow the conversation to know context of what people are saying.

You can't just go by the stats. The stats Strad posts are dependent on execution. The bunt is only the right move in this context if it is successful. If we can guarantee success then they are better off guaranteeing a base hit.

The bunt hasn't really gone away because it's a bad move statistically, it's gone away because it is only a marginal benefit when executed successfully in a handful of situations, and a successful bunt is not a sure thing given it's rarity.

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Only when they disagree with him.

You're not following the conversation! 

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 5/11/2023 at 2:56 PM, Stradling said:

@Trendon shared something recently on Twitter. My chart is a little older and I haven’t looked at more recent data. 

The overall run expectancy is also not strictly relevant. What you need to look at are the odds of scoring 0 runs, the odds of scoring 1 run, and the odds of scoring 2 runs.