Has a "mega deal" ever worked out? Will any current ones work out?

[Dtwncbad]

All I can say is I am just fine after every single mega deal.

I don’t care how much money they make.  I just want a good chance to win.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, Hubs said:

I assume you mean guys with $175M contracts or greater, right? There are 40 contracts that exceeded $175M. Two players had signed two contracts greater than that value, Strasburg and A-Rod. I think their initial contracts were good, but then when they opted out and resigned, I think the second one for Strasburg is a bust and A-rod, well, he was productive but also got suspended..

I've listed them below from Cot's and Bolded the ones that I think were good. I did the strike through for those that are too early to tell. and Italicized those who I think were busts.

My score is 15 good, 7 outright busts, 6 guys somewhere in the middle and 12 too early to tell.

Total Value
The most lucrative contracts in baseball history, by total value:
1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30) 
2. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32)
3. Aaron Judge, $360,000,000 (2023-31)
4. Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31)
5. Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34)
6. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31)
7. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
8. Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31)
9. Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28)
10. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)
… Trea Turner, $300,000,000 (2023-33)
12. Xander Bogaerts, $280,000,000 (2023-33)
13. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
14. Nolan Arenado, $260,000,000 (2019-26)
15. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
16. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)
17. Stephen Strasburg, $245,000,000 (2020-26)
… Anthony Rendon, $245,000,000 (2020-26)
19. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)
21. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
22. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)
23. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
… Christian Yelich, $215,000,000 (2020-28)
25. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
26. Austin Riley, $212,000,000 (2023-32)
27. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) 
… Julio Rodriguez, $209,300,000 (2023-34) 
29. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)

30. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)
31. Jacob deGrom, $185,000,000 (2023-27)
32. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)
. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)
34. Wander Franco, $182,000,000 (2022-32)
. . . Kris Bryant, $182,000,000 (2022-28)
36. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)
38. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)
. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23)
. . . Marcus Semien, $175,000,000 (2022-28)
 

Nice attempt there, but it is too soon to tell on a lot of those - including Trout. I think you really can't judge until halfway in or so.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Like I said earlier, context is needed. Because contracts are only getting bigger and bigger.

Assuming Correa gets more than 300 (you have to assume he will), then looking at the boegarts and Turner contracts, you have to look at say harper and Machado as "damn... they could have gotten more!"

Shohei is going to get Elon musk money. And before Trout retires, I assume guys like boegarts will end up looking "affordable".

Like when Soto and Acuna and those guys sign thr next wave of huge deals.

 

[ScottT]

Yes

[TheLordofOuts]

With inflation looking like it won't be slowing down anytime soon, these deals will all be bargains in 2 years

[TheLordofOuts]

With inflation looking like it won't be slowing down anytime soon, these deals will all be bargains in 2 years

[m0nkey]

39 minutes ago, TheLordofOuts said:

With inflation looking like it won't be slowing down anytime soon, these deals will all be bargains in 2 years

And you'll have to post things three times to get your point across at this rate

[aznhockeyguy]

3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Seeing all this talk of mega contracts reminds me of when Kevin Brown signed the very first 100mil contract.  I remember how insane that seemed at the time.  Fast forward to about 25 years later, and we are now discussing the possibility that a player might soon sign the first half-billion dollar contract.  Wow.

I remember that contract,  7 years 105 million given by then Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, almost 25 years ago.  Everyone said that it was outrageous and it'll destroy baseball because small teams won't be able to keep up with rising salaries.  He was pretty decent over the life of the contract.  Think he averaged like 3-4 WAR where he was pretty elite the first 3-4 years and then towards the end was done an awful.  Time flies man. 

[ScottT]

Arte Moreno

$185 million.  

$3 billion?

[Warfarin]

4 hours ago, aznhockeyguy said:

I remember that contract,  7 years 105 million given by then Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, almost 25 years ago.  Everyone said that it was outrageous and it'll destroy baseball because small teams won't be able to keep up with rising salaries.  He was pretty decent over the life of the contract.  Think he averaged like 3-4 WAR where he was pretty elite the first 3-4 years and then towards the end was done an awful.  Time flies man. 

Yeah.  I remember him getting hurt and being traded mid-way through that contract, but looking at his Fangraphs stats now, he looks like he actually held up pretty well - 3 elite years, 1 that would have been but only pitched half, 2 average years and 1 poor one.  Crazy that it was indeed almost 25 years ago already.

[floplag]

It depends on how you define "worked out"?  
Is any such contract likely to be worth the money, no.  Most are signed when the player is 30ish and covers what will inevitably be declining years.
BUT, if that comes with on field success for the franchise, then yes, it worked out.
Trout, as a player, is worth every penny we have or will pay him, but the deal will be considered a bust if we dont win, same with Pujols... had we won a couple WS with him would anyone have cared?
The Padres will probably eventually regret some of these deals they are signing but i give them full marks for going after the Dodgers, and they have had some success. so do you think their fan base is complaining about it right now?
No one cheers for building the future or fiscal budget management, were sports fans, we want wins... the rest is for the businessmen. 

[Tank]

pujols deal worked out great . . . for pujols.

[Erstad Grit]

4 minutes ago, Tank said:

pujols deal worked out great . . . for pujols.

Maybe if he took less and stayed in St Louis his family wouldn't have fallen apart

[James]

30 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Maybe if he took less and stayed in St Louis his family wouldn't have fallen apart

Nah, she would have found out he was 10 years older either way. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

9 hours ago, ScottT said:

Arte Moreno

$185 million.  

$3 billion?

Can’t forget to include the salary Arte gave himself every season.

[Hubs]

16 hours ago, Hubs said:

Mega Contracts by Value and fWar
1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30) 17.1 fWAR in 4 seasons. 8 Seasons remain.
2. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32) 10.4 fWAR in 2 seasons. 10 Seasons remain. 
3. Aaron Judge, $360,000,000 (2023-31)
4. Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31)
5. Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34)
6. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31) 15.9 fWAR in 4 seasons. 9 Seasons remain.
7. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27) 20.9 fWAR in 8 Seasons. 5 Seasons Remain.
8. Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31)
9. Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28) 9.9 fWAR in 3 Seasons. 6 Seasons Remain.
10. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28) 16.5 fWAR in 4 seasons. 6 Seasons Remain.
… Trea Turner, $300,000,000 (2023-33)
12. Xander Bogaerts, $280,000,000 (2023-33)
13. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) 22.1 fWAR in 10 seasons. Missed the 2014 and 2017 seasons, maybe got paid? 
14. Nolan Arenado, $260,000,000 (2019-26) 18.6 fWAR in 4 Seasons. 4 Seasons Remain.
15. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) 56.1 fWAR in 7 seasons. Renegotiated after 07. Total Payout 171M.
16. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23) 3.1 fWAR in 7 seasons. 1 Remain.
17. Stephen Strasburg, $245,000,000 (2020-26) 0.0 fWar in 3 seasons. 4 seasons Remain.
… Anthony Rendon, $245,000,000 (2020-26) 3.5 fWAR in 3 seasons. 4 Seasons Remain.
19. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21) 12.8 fWAR in 10 seasons. 
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)  23.8 fWAR in 9 Seasons. 1 remain.
21. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23) 25.6 fWAR in 9 Seasons. 1 Remain.
22. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22) 11.4 fWAR in 7 seasons. 
23. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20) 35.5 fWAR in 7 Seasons.
… Christian Yelich, $215,000,000 (2020-28) 4.6 fWAR in 3 seasons. 4 remain.
25. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20) 7.1 fWAR in 5 seasons? Retired due to injury.
26. Austin Riley, $212,000,000 (2023-32)
27. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) 39.9 fWAR in 7 Seasons.
… Julio Rodriguez, $209,300,000 (2023-34) 
29. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21) 18.7 fWAR in 6 seasons.

30. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) 44.7 fWAR in 10 seasons.
31. Jacob deGrom, $185,000,000 (2023-27)
32. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) 18.8 fWAR in 8 seasons.
. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)
34. Wander Franco, $182,000,000 (2022-32)
. . . Kris Bryant, $182,000,000 (2022-28)
36. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) 18.5 fWAR in 8 seasons.
. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19) 33.6 fWAR in 7 Seasons.
38. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19) 16 fWAR in 7 Seasons.
. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23) 13.9 in 3 seasons. (Renegotiated).
. . . Marcus Semien, $175,000,000 (2022-28)
 

if a single fWAR costs around what $7-8M on average only a few would be worth the deal technically by the WAR stat. But there is a lot that goes into the worth of a contract. I see a few were less valuable than I imagined, and a few more, but the best deals here are ARod, Jeter, Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw. 5 out of 40, with 12 too early or brand new. The worst deals here are Strasburg #2, Cabrera, Rendon* so Far, Yelich* So Far, and Prince Fielder. David Price and Pujols are next.

[Angelsfan1984]

Vlads deal was considered huge for the time? I'd say that worked out great.

Ichiro

Goldschmidt

Arenado

 

 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, James said:

Nah, she would have found out he was 10 years older either way. 

My understanding is she was a cheater, I just don’t know if she was cheating back in St Louis or if it started here in So Cal.  

[Mark68]

I seem to recall Cliff Lee signing a contract that worked out pretty well for the Phillies.

[Taylor]

16 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Shohei is going to get Elon musk money. 

Does that mean several folks here will then declare Shohei a business genius?

[Taylor]

15 hours ago, TheLordofOuts said:

With inflation looking like it won't be slowing down anytime soon, these deals will all be bargains in 2 years

You really think this has to do with inflation? 

[stormngt]

9 hours ago, floplag said:

It depends on how you define "worked out"?  
Is any such contract likely to be worth the money, no.  Most are signed when the player is 30ish and covers what will inevitably be declining years.
BUT, if that comes with on field success for the franchise, then yes, it worked out.
Trout, as a player, is worth every penny we have or will pay him, but the deal will be considered a bust if we dont win, same with Pujols... had we won a couple WS with him would anyone have cared?
The Padres will probably eventually regret some of these deals they are signing but i give them full marks for going after the Dodgers, and they have had some success. so do you think their fan base is complaining about it right now?
No one cheers for building the future or fiscal budget management, were sports fans, we want wins... the rest is for the businessmen. 

Correction 1 WS championship under Pujols and we wouldn't have cared.