Is it just a foregone conclusion that 2023 is Ohtani's last with the Angels?

[BTH]

38 minutes ago, VladdyforHOF said:

They ready to let Ohtani go for nothing besides a QO comp pick? Trading him this offseason is the only smart thing to do.

That's the last thing they're gonna do.

 

By July, we should know:

a. Where the Angels' 2023 stands and whether they are contenders or not.

b. Who the Angels' new owner is.

 

Those circumstances will determine whether the Angels offer Ohtani a contract extension, whether he'd being willing to negotiate and accept an extension, or if the Angels need to trade Ohtani for more value than a comp pick would provide.

The only scenarios in which I see the Angels only walking away with a comp pick for Ohtani is if Arte doesn't sell the team by July or if Ohtani has a season-ending injury which results in him having no trade value.

[Swordsman78]

43 minutes ago, stormngt said:

New owner needs to pay him.  My concern is if Ohtani doesn't want to stay regardless of salary

Please stop with all the negative vibes.

[Swordsman78]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Personally, I think he's gone. (And I was one of the loudest on here saying Trout was staying).

That said, I think people are picking the Dodgers because it's the laziest pick. They're great, and have money. And he can stay here in SoCal.

I have a bad feeling about Seattle, and the Mets personally. Kind of hoping it's the Pads (if not us).

[T.G.]

I'd trade him as a pitcher to one team and as a hitter to another team.

 

[Swordsman78]

What percentage of worries actually happen?

 

 

According to researchers at Penn State University, only about 8% of the things people worry about come true. In other words, less than 1 in 10 things you stress about is actually worth it. Researchers asked 29 people with General Anxiety Disorder to keep a journal of everything that worried them over a 10-day period.

[Swordsman78]

Five hundred years ago, Michel de Montaigne said: "My life has been filled with terrible misfortune; most of which never happened."

[Dtwncbad]

51 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

What percentage of worries actually happen?

 

 

According to researchers at Penn State University, only about 8% of the things people worry about come true. In other words, less than 1 in 10 things you stress about is actually worth it. Researchers asked 29 people with General Anxiety Disorder to keep a journal of everything that worried them over a 10-day period.

I am worried that percentage will go up.

[floplag]

3 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Current or new ownership needs to approach Ohtani before the start of the season IMO and ask him if he'd sign an extension for $_____ and if he won't and either current or new ownership cannot afford him they really need to bring in a haul of prospects and young players ready now before the start of the season. 

That's just my take.

I hope the Angels make Ohtani an Angel for life, but if he wants to get paid and try his luck for a Championship elsewhere, you need to get a good return. 

This
If this wa ANY other player, this would be a no brainer.
He signs, or you deal him, end of story.  
If he walks for nothing we are the biggest idiots in this history of the game. 

[T.G.]

The Yankees were in a similar situation with Aaron Judge.  They still don't know if he will sign elsewhere...

They were in "win now" mode so they had no choice but to keep Judge and risk him walking in his FA year.

The Angels are also claiming that they're in "win now" mode.  If that's true - they have no choice but to keep Ohtani.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

2 hours ago, VladdyforHOF said:

Yeah agreed. I get that it's not an easy thing to trade your superstar. But 2023 is the last chance and that's an insane risk. Sometimes you see teams hold on to that highly coveted to-be FA in their contract year and they very well know that player might walk away. But they let it happen because they're going "all in" to win the chip.

Sorry, this roster as currently constructed - even with the new additions that I am very fond of don't get me wrong - is not a contender. And I don't know why anyone else would feel it's a contender. So it doesn't make sense to go "all-in" with Ohtani and make it a "win for Ohtani" year.
"

No argument here. If they are going to trade Ohtani, the winter meetings would be the time to do it. Minasian said that it isn't going to happen, so I am taking him at his word. If they wait until the trade deadline, no club is going to empty out their farm system for two months of Ohtani.

How I see it playing out is Ohtani spends the season here, walks away when it is over, and the Angels get nothing for the only reason that casual fans even knew that they existed for the past 2-3 years.

[BTH]

1 minute ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

No argument here. If they are going to trade Ohtani, the winter meetings would be the time to do it. Minasian said that it isn't going to happen, so I am taking him at his word. If they wait until the trade deadline, no club is going to empty out their farm system for two months of Ohtani.

Your argument makes no sense. If you think "no team is going to empty out their farm system for two months of Ohtani," why do you think they'll empty it out for six months of Ohtani?

I'd argue they'd get even more for Ohtani at the trade deadline than at the winter meetings because teams will trade for him knowing they are in a position to make the playoffs. Teams will be more desperate to add an impact SP and hitter mid-season with a smaller supply available.

Right now, a team could sign Rodon, DeGrom, or Verlander if they want an front-end SP or sign Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, or Judge if they want an top-of-the-lineup hitter.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

40 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Your argument makes no sense. If you think "no team is going to empty out their farm system for two months of Ohtani," why do you think they'll empty it out for six months of Ohtani?

You are totally misinterpreting what I said. I never made the argument that the Angels would get a huge haul now regardless. They simply will get a lot less if they wait until late July. The time to have made a deal, if they were going to make one, was prior to the 2022 season.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Vegas Halo Fan

[Torridd]

3 hours ago, VladdyforHOF said:

Yeah agreed. I get that it's not an easy thing to trade your superstar. But 2023 is the last chance and that's an insane risk. Sometimes you see teams hold on to that highly coveted to-be FA in their contract year and they very well know that player might walk away. But they let it happen because they're going "all in" to win the chip.

Sorry, this roster as currently constructed - even with the new additions that I am very fond of don't get me wrong - is not a contender. And I don't know why anyone else would feel it's a contender. So it doesn't make sense to go "all-in" with Ohtani and make it a "win for Ohtani" year.
"

It is a risk, but I think a good one to take. With an ownership change, I think it's more likely he stays. If Arte remained the owner, I have no idea what he'd do. We're not going to know what Ohtani is told but logically 1) I would almost guarantee that management has spoken to him to get his thoughts. 2) The Angels want to keep him, if at all possible, based on 1. 3) I don't believe money is much an issue. We can pay him as much as any other team.

Ohtani wants to stay, like the poster who wrote that this was his original choice, and he wants to win so he has to decide if management/ownership is capable of creating a winner. I think Minasian is capable and now we have new ownership. It's a gamble on Ohtani's part also. He can just play this year to see what happens, but if he gets hurt he can lose some money. I think he likes a challenge. That's part of why he came to the team in the first place because we gave him leeway to do things the way he wanted. I think he would like to be on the roster when the team gets back to the playoffs. I think he'd enjoy the challenge of going far with the Angels rather than going to a powerhouse like the Dodgers who are winners with or without him.

[BTH]

22 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

You are totally misinterpreting what I said. I never made the argument that the Angels would get a huge haul now regardless. They simply will get a lot less if they wait until late July. The time to have made a deal, if they were going to make one, was prior to the 2022 season.

I don’t think that the return they’d get in late July would be substantially different than the one they’d get now.

Why do you think they’d get a “lot less” in late July vs. now?

[Pancake Bear]

4 hours ago, VladdyforHOF said:

Yeah agreed. I get that it's not an easy thing to trade your superstar. But 2023 is the last chance and that's an insane risk. Sometimes you see teams hold on to that highly coveted to-be FA in their contract year and they very well know that player might walk away. But they let it happen because they're going "all in" to win the chip.

Sorry, this roster as currently constructed - even with the new additions that I am very fond of don't get me wrong - is not a contender. And I don't know why anyone else would feel it's a contender. So it doesn't make sense to go "all-in" with Ohtani and make it a "win for Ohtani" year.
"

Where are we short?

- Starting pitching was 6th best (fWAR) in MLB last year, second only to the Astros in the AL. The two guys we lost weren't among our four best, and Anderson should easily match either of them. Ohtani probably isn't that good again, and maybe Sandoval isn't either, but Detmers and Suarez did some work that was trending in the positive direction in the second half, indicating we could be better than last year. We have more depth than we've had in years at starting pitching. There's no reason we shouldn't be a top 10 rotation again and top five in the AL, which is definitely good enough to be a contender.

- Our offense was best in baseball last year for two months, even with Rendon being mediocre and Fletcher gone. Then we got injuries and everything got derailed. So what did Minasian do? Improved weak spots and brought in depth. Renfroe is easily an improvement in the outfield and Urshela adds depth in the infield. Obviously if there are a lot of injuries or major ones to Trout or Ohtani we're screwed, but there isn't exactly anything we or any other team can do about that. Comparing to say, the Astros, I'd say our shored up lineup isn't majorly behind them. We have the top end hitters to match anyone, and we raised our floor this off-season. If any of Walsh, Rendon, or Fletcher come back to anywhere close to what they were in the past (not particularly a stretch), we can hit with anyone in baseball. That's without even doing anything else at shortstop, which they're still shopping on.

- The bullpen is the big issue that scares me. I'm optimistic that the dude from driveline can help improve our pen, but if we're gonna get beat, this is where it'll be.

But the off-season isn't done and we're still shopping. So, I just don't get where this negativity is coming from. Last year we were a good team that wasn't healthy and wasn't deep enough to sustain as many losses as we had.

 

[Swordsman78]

4 hours ago, DCAngelsFan said:

I don't think his ego is served by "Look at me, look at me, I got the biggest AAV contract in MLB history!"  That's not (imo) who he is.  

Is he comfortable / happy playing for the Angels, and living in Southern California?  

Going to an already-winning team would feel less rewarding than winning with the team he started with deep into the playoffs.

He can get the money from anyone - so, he probably already know what it would take to stay (if anything could).  Besides money, what could be done?  Is it competitiveness?  Is it better snacks in the dugout?  

I've always been a really big fan of just asking him.   What would it take to make you stay?  Would you prefer to be traded to a contender?  (assuming we won't be a contender)

I think that's the big catch - I think he'd stay if we were contending and we offered whatever amount of money he asked for But to be competitive, we need to go all in (Arte has had that opportunity multiple times and passed) - will the new ownership have a say in *this* off-season?

 

Pretty much how I see it as well.

The Angels new owners will have deep pockets and won't want to screw this one up.   And Arte won't let him go while hes still in charge.

 

[Warfarin]

27 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Pretty much how I see it as well.

The Angels new owners will have deep pockets and won't want to screw this one up.   And Arte won't let him go while hes still in charge.

 

Agreed.  I doubt the new ownership group will want one of their first "moves" to be to let Ohtani go.  I have to imagine they'll make a very strong offer and will offer to match/exceed any contract offer he gets elsewhere.  That said, it is possible Ohtani might forego money to pick a destination that he really wants above all else.  I don't see him as a "money is the most important thing" kind of guy.  So .. we'll see what happens.

[Swordsman78]

3 hours ago, T.G. said:

The Yankees were in a similar situation with Aaron Judge.  They still don't know if he will sign elsewhere...

They were in "win now" mode so they had no choice but to keep Judge and risk him walking in his FA year.

The Angels are also claiming that they're in "win now" mode.  If that's true - they have no choice but to keep Ohtani.

IF the Angels let Ohtani go, it will be a crushing blow to Trout. 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

18 hours ago, Trendon said:

I don’t think that the return they’d get in late July would be substantially different than the one they’d get now.

Why do you think they’d get a “lot less” in late July vs. now?

Because it wouldn't be for a full season. Six months versus two is a big difference.

[ten ocho recon scout]

17 hours ago, Swordsman78 said:

IF the Angels let Ohtani go, it will be a crushing blow to Trout. 

Not just a disappointment for him. But essentially solidifying the same problem. Trout and a bunch of crap around  him.

My worry about not landing someone this winter isn't just to try and compete, and keep Ohtani. But that if Ohtani walks, and were left with another year older Trout and Rendon, with not a lot available in FA next year.

[Erstad Grit]

Ideal situation for a new owner 

Repair relationship with Anaheim and extend Ohtani. New owner would be beloved for years. 

As a new owner Arte lowered beer prices and was worshiped.  

[BTH]

4 hours ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

Because it wouldn't be for a full season. Six months versus two is a big difference.

Not really.

Ohtani’s main value is in the playoffs, where he’s a #1 starter and elite bat

Playoff contenders will bid against each other and drive the price up at the TDL knowing they can focus on how to best improve their team for the playoffs.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 11/28/2022 at 12:52 PM, Dtwncbad said:

Relax.

A headline on mlb.com is written to get clicks.

Ohtani is the most interesting player in baseball in decades.

What would you put there to get clicks?

 

half naked chicks for clicks

[Jason]

On 11/28/2022 at 7:49 PM, Swordsman78 said:

IF the Angels let Ohtani go, it will be a crushing blow to Trout. 

Never making the post season is probably doing the same 

[Warfarin]

12 hours ago, Trendon said:

Not really.

Ohtani’s main value is in the playoffs, where he’s a #1 starter and elite bat

Playoff contenders will bid against each other and drive the price up at the TDL knowing they can focus on how to best improve their team for the playoffs.

Agreed.  I DO think it would be less, as prospective teams would factor in less playing time, but it won't be proportionally less (i.e. 1/3 of the value).  The whole point of the trade deadline acquisition is to acquire someone for the playoffs.

Actually, for the more elite teams like the Dodgers, Astros, etc, it probably makes the most sense for them to acquire a star player AT the deadline instead of before the season starts, especially for a SP.  They will be making the playoffs either way, so there isn't really a need to go through a full season with them.  SPs get hurt so often - wouldn't you rather wait until as close to the playoffs as possible to acquire a SP, to help minimize the risk of subsequent injury?  If you acquire someone to start the season, there are 6+ months for a possible injury to transpire.  If you acquire them with 2 months left, you just need to help navigate those final two months healthy, etc.

Anecdotally, it seems they do that with their pitchers as it is - any sings of possible injury and they shut them down for awhile, then gradually ease them back such that they come back about 1-2 months prior to the playoffs.