Is it just a foregone conclusion that 2023 is Ohtani's last with the Angels?

[Angels 1961]

If I'm the most talented player ever to play this game I test FA. 

[Angelsjunky]

I want Ohtani to stay but it isn't the end of the world if he leaves. I know, unpopular take. But the down-side of an Ohtani extension is the huge portion of salary it will take up...he's probably going to get the highest AAV in baseball history, especially if he comes close to repeating the last two years. Trout is making $37M a year, Scherzer made $43.3M last year...Judge will probably get $40M+...so maybe $45M a year? That's about one-quarter of the team's current payroll and would give the Angels three players who would be paid about $120M a year from 2024-26, the last year of Rendon's contract.

Here's what I'd do: Offer Ohtani a 3/$150M extension for 2024-26. That turns Ohtani's 1/$30M into 4 x $45M, making him the highest paid player in the game. The Angels have him through age 31; Ohtani is still young enough (32) to get a sizable contract after.

All of a sudden the Angels have an Ohtani-Rendon Window of four years to go all in during which Minasian can continue rebuilding the farm. 

[Blarg]

Ohtani would be foolish to accept a 3 year contract during his peak years. 

[oldguy]

yes

[BTH]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I want Ohtani to stay but it isn't the end of the world if he leaves. I know, unpopular take. But the down-side of an Ohtani extension is the huge portion of salary it will take up...

I agree with this.

The only scenarios I’d be upset with, in regard to Ohtani, are if the Angels:

a. Miss the playoffs and let Ohtani walk in free agency for nothing more than a compensation pick.

b. Don’t get a decent return for him IF they trade him.

I think there’s a ton of risk in an Ohtani extension because he’s gonna get paid an insane amount of money and we have no idea how he’s going to age. Since he’s a hitter and pitcher, odds are he’s going to age worse than a normal aging curve would show.

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Blarg said:

Ohtani would be foolish to accept a 3 year contract during his peak years. 

Maybe, but I'm talking $50M a year. Of course a guaranteed $150M is not the same as a guaranteed $400M. But if his arm goes pop in 2023, he'd be kicking himself for not taking the $50M/year.

I don't think he'd accept it, though. He's had two years of great health, and there's no reason to think 2023 won't be a third. He'll bank on his massive pay-day.

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

If I'm the most talented player ever to play this game I test FA. 

Unless you want guaranteed money now.

Blown elbow and his value is cut in half

Edited November 30, 2022 by stormngt

[Blarg]

35 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Maybe, but I'm talking $50M a year. Of course a guaranteed $150M is not the same as a guaranteed $400M. But if his arm goes pop in 2023, he'd be kicking himself for not taking the $50M/year.

I don't think he'd accept it, though. He's had two years of great health, and there's no reason to think 2023 won't be a third. He'll bank on his massive pay-day.

 

The Angels have already given Ohtani all they are going to this season and it is all Ohtani wants because he isn't sold on the Angels being competitive. 

[Warfarin]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I want Ohtani to stay but it isn't the end of the world if he leaves. I know, unpopular take. But the down-side of an Ohtani extension is the huge portion of salary it will take up...he's probably going to get the highest AAV in baseball history, especially if he comes close to repeating the last two years. Trout is making $37M a year, Scherzer made $43.3M last year...Judge will probably get $40M+...so maybe $45M a year? That's about one-quarter of the team's current payroll and would give the Angels three players who would be paid about $120M a year from 2024-26, the last year of Rendon's contract.

Here's what I'd do: Offer Ohtani a 3/$150M extension for 2024-26. That turns Ohtani's 1/$30M into 4 x $45M, making him the highest paid player in the game. The Angels have him through age 31; Ohtani is still young enough (32) to get a sizable contract after.

All of a sudden the Angels have an Ohtani-Rendon Window of four years to go all in during which Minasian can continue rebuilding the farm. 

I appreciate the spirit of that, but I am guessing Ohtani will gamble on staying healthy and then testing the market.  If he reaches free agency healthy, he will probably eclipse 400mil guaranteed.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

Ohtani would be foolish to accept a 3 year contract during his peak years. 

Exactly. This is his best chance to cash in big. If I am Ohtani, I am at least testing the market to see what the numbers are.

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 hours ago, Blarg said:

Ohtani would be foolish to accept a 3 year contract during his peak years. 

Agreed. I think the best case scenario for both sides is a massive overpay with opt outs after say 2 years 

"We're going to make you as rich as you want, but if you change your mind you can leave."

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, Trendon said:

I think there’s a ton of risk in an Ohtani extension because he’s gonna get paid an insane amount of money and we have no idea how he’s going to age. Since he’s a hitter and pitcher, odds are he’s going to age worse than a normal aging curve would show.

Absolutely.

That said, overpaying Ohtani if he ends up shitty wouldn't be the worst thing for me, personally. He's going to be talked about 100 years from now regardless of how he ends up. If we lose money on him, meh. Still worth it, IMO

[Angels 1961]

You can trade Ohtani now get best value you can. Sign another starting pitcher plus a top SS. Would halos be better off if you think Ohtani is going to test FA. Can use Rendon and Trout at DH so they can play more games. First would need to sign top SS or trade for Tim Anderson and sign another SP. You would also get players back for Ohtani. This is all based on if Ohtani is going to test FA.

[Swordsman78]

1 hour ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

Exactly. This is his best chance to cash in big. If I am Ohtani, I am at least testing the market to see what the numbers are.

Trout didn't test the market.  Not everyone is a greedy pitcher or south of the border player.

[Angels 1961]

3 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Trout didn't test the market.  Not everyone is a greedy pitcher or south of the border player.

I wonder if Trout thinks he made a mistake or did over 400 million help in his decision. 

[Swordsman78]

2 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

I wonder if Trout thinks he made a mistake or did over 400 million help in his decision. 

At some point the relationship between money and happiness becomes and inverse one.   That point for most people is well under $400,000,000.  Except for some bozo's who will comment about this take, who never had comfortable $.

[BTH]

46 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Absolutely.

That said, overpaying Ohtani if he ends up shitty wouldn't be the worst thing for me, personally. He's going to be talked about 100 years from now regardless of how he ends up. If we lose money on him, meh. Still worth it, IMO

Yeah, I don’t think it’s bad to overpay Ohtani either.

I just don’t think it’s catastrophic if Ohtani leaves, so long as you get something out of Ohtani that’s worth more than a compensation pick (whether that’s the playoffs in 2023 or a haul at the deadline).

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, Trendon said:

Yeah, I don’t think it’s bad to overpay Ohtani either.

I just don’t think it’s catastrophic if Ohtani leaves, so long as you get something out of Ohtani that’s worth more than a compensation pick (whether that’s the playoffs in 2023 or a haul at the deadline).

You won't get anything close to value for Ohtani - it's almost impossible to get fair value for a generational talent in a trade - and whatever you get will be futures. By that point, Trout's career will be over. Our window is now, and I hope the extra spending means that someone upstairs understand that. Looking five years down the road is lunacy. The next five years (probably 2-3 if I'm being honest) is make or break. 

[Angels 1961]

13 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

You won't get anything close to value for Ohtani - it's almost impossible to get fair value for a generational talent in a trade - and whatever you get will be futures. By that point, Trout's career will be over. Our window is now, and I hope the extra spending means that someone upstairs understand that. Looking five years down the road is lunacy. The next five years (probably 2-3 if I'm being honest) is make or break. 

You are right you cannot get anything close to Ohtani value. If he walks after 2023 you get nothing. This is kinda make or break year for Angels with Ohtani and Trout. If Ohtani is not resigned, you will have extra 35 to 50 million to spread around if new ownership chooses to do so. Trades by Minasian brought in 2 decent players who should help but on 1-year deals. They will have to be replaced after 2023. I feel something big is going to happen with Angels in next week or so. Minasian could be looking for job after new ownership comes in. He may just roll the dice and make big move. Last big SPLASH for Arte as he walks out the door with 3 billion.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

You won't get anything close to value for Ohtani - it's almost impossible to get fair value for a generational talent in a trade - and whatever you get will be futures. By that point, Trout's career will be over. Our window is now, and I hope the extra spending means that someone upstairs understand that. Looking five years down the road is lunacy. The next five years (probably 2-3 if I'm being honest) is make or break. 

You’ll still get the combined value worth that for a rental #1 SP and rental top of the lineup bat in return via trade.

If the pieces you get are in the low minors, you could always flip them in the offseason to get MLB talent.

[Second Base]

He's gone regardless, in my opinion. He wants to win. Even if the Angels won in 2023, is their farm particularly strong? Do they have a history of winning? Are any of these people that made him want to sign with the Angels in the first place still here? 

Ohtani is headed to the Mets. 

[Swordsman78]

41 minutes ago, Second Base said:

He's gone regardless, in my opinion. He wants to win. Even if the Angels won in 2023, is their farm particularly strong? Do they have a history of winning? Are any of these people that made him want to sign with the Angels in the first place still here? 

Ohtani is headed to the Mets. 

You may want  to find another team to follow.........

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

He's gone regardless, in my opinion. He wants to win. Even if the Angels won in 2023, is their farm particularly strong? Do they have a history of winning? Are any of these people that made him want to sign with the Angels in the first place still here? 

Ohtani is headed to the Mets. 

"History of winning" and "Mets" are not exactly things you would see lumped together, lol.

If he does not sign with us, I am guessing he will go to the Dodgers, but we'll see.

[Warfarin]

5 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Absolutely.

That said, overpaying Ohtani if he ends up shitty wouldn't be the worst thing for me, personally. He's going to be talked about 100 years from now regardless of how he ends up. If we lose money on him, meh. Still worth it, IMO

As much as I am against signing external free agents to mega deals, I am very much for re-signing your own guys to big deals, while recognize that those deals will age poorly too. Trout's final years will likely be subpar, and the same goes for Ohtani, but you have to remember how much these guys contributed to the team at bargain basement prices.  They are/were the identity of the team, and they deserve to be financially compensated for it.

[Second Base]

56 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

You may want  to find another team to follow.........

Padres are my other team.