Pick Your Poison: Extend Ohtani or Let Him Walk

[BTH]

Assuming that trading Ohtani is not an option Arte Moreno is willing to consider, which option would you prefer?

Obviously it’s not our money, but the reality is that Arte Moreno has a payroll limit— which means any Ohtani extension cuts into the remaining money available for the rest of the team.

[AngelsLakersFan]

well shit, if you aren't going to trade him you better re-sign him... the worst case scenario is that he simply walks.

[cals]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

well shit, if you aren't going to trade him you better re-sign him... the worst case scenario is that he simply walks.

This.

And I think you consider trading him if the offer blows you away.  And he’s my favorite player.  I just don’t see how they can win and keep him.  Not with Trout and Rendon on payroll.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, cals said:

This.

And I think you consider trading him if the offer blows you away.  And he’s my favorite player.  I just don’t see how they can win and keep him.  Not with Trout and Rendon on payroll.

It's a lot of money tied up in a losing team.

[Stradling]

How long is the deal?  Is it 8 years at $45 million a season i MIGHT be ok with it. Anything shorter than yes. Anything longer and the answer is no. I still think you could get him for less than $45 million a season. 

[stormngt]

The decision is too easy.  If we can extend Ohtani we do.  Increase our budget.

Letting him walk for nothing is the worst thing we can do.

Trade him only if you can't extend him.

Edited July 25, 2022 by stormngt

[Taylor]

Ohtani is the only thing I like about the Angels right now.

[Angelsfan1984]

Letting him walk is the only “not an option”. Either you extend him or you get as much as you possibly can. If minasian lets him walk for nothing he should find a new profession.

[cals]

How many think that Moreno will spend to win if he’s paying Ohtani 50 million/year? (On top of the other large contracts).  Or will he just continue to market the superstar and let them be average and fingers crossed for the best?

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

The odds of getting both a pitcher and hitter as good as Ohtani for what he will make are very slim. If you can extend him you absolutely do it and do everything possible to build a winner with him, Trout and Rendon making 110M+ annually.  If he won’t sign an extension they they should trade him. 

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

How long is the deal?  Is it 8 years at $45 million a season i MIGHT be ok with it. Anything shorter than yes. Anything longer and the answer is no. I still think you could get him for less than $45 million a season. 

How about $35 million base per season for 8 years max, and an extra $5 million anytime he reaches 162 innings?

[Angel Oracle]

50 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

The odds of getting both a pitcher and hitter as good as Ohtani for what he will make are very slim. If you can extend him you absolutely do it and do everything possible to build a winner with him, Trout and Rendon making 110M+ annually.  If he won’t sign an extension they they should trade him. 

And with Upton’s, Lorenzen’s, and Bradley’s contracts off the books, thst leaves about $60 million AAV under the tax threshold.   A new Ohtani contract still would likely leave them $25-$30 million under the tax threshold.   Plenty of room to even add a decent enough SS like Farmer via trade and the 3 salary arb guys.

And that’s if they were to re-sign Thor for one more season for similar money to this season as a bridge to the young starters like C-Rod and Bachman (health permitting), Bush, Erla, Crow, etc.

Also keeping in mind that Loup and Tepera ($15 million total AAV) also come off the books after 2023.

[notherhalo]

Even if you divide that amongst crappier players whos sum don't equal the value of Ohtani, isnt it a smarter bet given the likelihood of injuries to all those people much less than just Ohtani

I'm looking at the pain of Trouts contract during his injury years and imagining more 

[HaloBronco]

Need to add a third category; Trade him now and get assets while you can.

[BTH]

13 hours ago, HaloBronco said:

Need to add a third category; Trade him now and get assets while you can.

The whole premise of this pool was based on the assumption that:

a. That’s the logical move.

b. That’s not a move Arte Moreno will be willing to make

[HaloBronco]

32 minutes ago, Trendon said:

The whole premise of this pool was based on the assumption that:

a. That’s the logical move.

b. That’s not a move Arte Moreno will be willing to make

 

32 minutes ago, Trendon said:

The whole premise of this pool was based on the assumption that:

a. That’s the logical move.

b. That’s not a move Arte Moreno will be willing to make

Ok, thanks for clarifying.

Given that, obviously I voted for giving him an extension. 

[Angels 1961]

18 hours ago, Taylor said:

Ohtani is the only thing I like about the Angels right now.

You know Goose is back

[Angels 1961]

16 hours ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

The odds of getting both a pitcher and hitter as good as Ohtani for what he will make are very slim. If you can extend him you absolutely do it and do everything possible to build a winner with him, Trout and Rendon making 110M+ annually.  If he won’t sign an extension they they should trade him. 

How long do you try to sign him before you trade him?

[Erstad Grit]

15 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

And with Upton’s, Lorenzen’s, and Bradley’s contracts off the books, thst leaves about $60 million AAV under the tax threshold.   A new Ohtani contract still would likely leave them $25-$30 million under the tax threshold.   Plenty of room to even add a decent enough SS like Farmer via trade and the 3 salary arb guys.

And that’s if they were to re-sign Thor for one more season for similar money to this season as a bridge to the young starters like C-Rod and Bachman (health permitting), Bush, Erla, Crow, etc.

Also keeping in mind that Loup and Tepera ($15 million total AAV) also come off the books after 2023.

and Noah's 21 million

[Erstad Grit]

Just now, Angels 1961 said:

How long do you try to sign him before you trade him?

I would think by now Angels have a general idea on whether extending him is an option or not and how much that might be. I find it unlikely they have no idea. 

[Angels 1961]

2 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I would think by now Angels have a general idea on whether extending him is an option or not and how much that might be. I find it unlikely they have no idea. 

So he could be traded before deadline?

[Erstad Grit]

2 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

So he could be traded before deadline?

He could. Arte also might conclude he'd rather keep him into FA and make money off him all next year and just get the draft pick. 

[ThisismineScios]

I do think if Arte is willing to extend Ohtani, it will signal an increase in spending. Rosenthal said he doesn’t want to lose Ohtani and he’s aware of fans outrage with him. I think extending Ohtani means a willingness to increase spending. He knows they’re stuck with Trout and Rendon. Paying $100 million for 3 players and cutting costs elsewhere is a trick he knows won’t work. 

You have to extend him. Can’t lose a player like that, especially when he became what he is with your team. 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

9 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

How long do you try to sign him before you trade him?

If he isn't interested in an extension they should move him during the off season when his value is more than that of a possible half season rental at next year's trade deadline.  That said nothing that's been reported so far implies that they would move him then if at all even if he declines an extension and opts to hit FA. 

[Duren, Duren]

Trade him only if you get a great return. By no means just take an offer out of frustration or desperation. 

Extending him as the highest paid player can be rationalized as thinking of him as two players. But risk of injury therefore would mean the loss of effectiveness or playing time of two players. 

As we see with Trout, age and injuries go together. And look at all the injury time of  Pujols, Upton and Rendon. Lots of wasted money Plus diminishing of skills over time.

Plus Ohtani's own injury history. Can he be expected to throw 100 MPH for the next ten years? Or even five years? Most of his value is as a pitcher. He will still be good with less velocity because of his arsenal, but without the killer fastball who knows how great? And if he remains a six day starter you don't get full value as a pitcher. 

As a hitter he is above average, but not elite. And as a DH he is kind of wasted. There are always older, slower one dimensional hitters who can fit that role. If his pitching suffers from injury or other causes finding an outfield spot for him might not be the worst idea. 

In the big picture he currently is the best asset in baseball. But isn't moving the needle team wise because of all the other roster issues. Certainly not his fault. So the only way I see him wanting to stay is both being the highest paid player in history plus believing he will play on a winner. The same arguments Trout dealt with. 

For the next year and a half Arte and management have to weigh the decision. And direction. And very likely they are or will soon be getting feedback from Ohtani and his  management team. That one fact may be the real deciduing factor.

A team ready to win now or the next year or so would get the most benefit from him. 

And remember, they committed to Trout and vice versa as the long term face of the franchise. He may have input into the equation too about the future of the roster.