Bobby Abreu HOFer?

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

Gwynn was voted in by the fans. He didn't play because of an injury. 

More interesting...

[happybat4]

7 minutes ago, Lou said:

Because he had a higher OBP.

I wonder if in the future 4000 times on base will become the new 3000 hits. 

[Angelsjunky]

Fun fact: Ty Cobb led the AL in slugging eight times. Interesting to think of, as we think of him as a high average, speed guy. But he also had good power for that era.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, Tank said:

exactly, so using it today as an argument is kind of pointless as back in 1999 it wasn't really used as a tool for evaluating players.

In some basements it was.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

No he wasn't. I hear you about him being really fun to watch, but that was due to his unique style of hitting and, to a lesser degree, his arm.

That said, while no one could golf bad pitches like he could, as an overall hitter, there were several guys who were better. During Vlad's prime years (which I'll call 1998-2007), he was 13th in wRC+ with 146, tied with Larry Walker. Bonds (194), McGwire (173), Pujols (166), Manny (158), Giambi (155), A-Rod (152), C Jones (150), Thome (149), Hafner (147), Sheffield (147), and Berkman (147) were all ahead of him.

If you want something a bit more traditional, he was 10th in OPS.

He was also 9th in WAR over that time-frame, behind A-Rod, Bonds, A Jones, C Jones, Pujols, Rolen, Abreu, and Helton, just ahead of Jeter, Giles, Edmonds, and Manny.

He was a great player, but far from a generational player. A generational player must be, by definition, the best player of his generation - or at least arguably so. Vlad wasn't. He wasn't even one of the top five.

You just named everyone tied to steroids during that time period. So you've said he wasn't better than the worst cheats in baseball. 

In his prime Vlad was a five tool player. He had speed, an arm like a cannon, ability to steal bases, hit for average, for power, he had it all and it wasn't from a syringe. That shithole astroturf stadium took its toll on Guerrero's legs, had Jr played his entire career on grass his numbers would have been better, longer. 

But, Abreu was a good player.  Not Hall of Fame or even perennial All Star because each season there was usually someone better that earned that seat on the bench. Like Vlad. 

[happybat4]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

You just named everyone tied to steroids during that time period. So you've said he wasn't better than the worst cheats in baseball. 

In his prime Vlad was a five tool player. He had speed, an arm like a cannon, ability to steal bases, hit for average, for power, he had it all and it wasn't from a syringe. That dhithole astroturf stadium took its toll on Guerrero's legs, had Jr played his entire career on grass his numbers would have been better, longer. 

But, Abreu was a good player.  Not Hall of Fame or even perennial All Star because each season there was usually someone better that earned that seat on the bench. Like Vlad. 

Only A-rod, Manny, Giambi, Ramirez, Sheffield, and Bonds have been tied to steroids.

[happybat4]

6 minutes ago, Blarg said:

You just named everyone tied to steroids during that time period. So you've said he wasn't better than the worst cheats in baseball. 

In his prime Vlad was a five tool player. He had speed, an arm like a cannon, ability to steal bases, hit for average, for power, he had it all and it wasn't from a syringe. That dhithole astroturf stadium took its toll on Guerrero's legs, had Jr played his entire career on grass his numbers would have been better, longer. 

But, Abreu was a good player.  Not Hall of Fame or even perennial All Star because each season there was usually someone better that earned that seat on the bench. Like Vlad. 

"In his prime Vlad was a five tool player. He had speed, an arm like a cannon, ability to steal bases, hit for average, for power, he had it all and it wasn't from a syringe"

Are you talking about Abreu because he did all those things too?

[Blarg]

21 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

"In his prime Vlad was a five tool player. He had speed, an arm like a cannon, ability to steal bases, hit for average, for power, he had it all and it wasn't from a syringe"

Are you talking about Abreu because he did all those things too?

No, he didn't. He only more than 25 home runs twice in his career. 

[happybat4]

21 minutes ago, Blarg said:

No, he didn't. He only more than 25 home runs twice in his career. 

Vlad only stole more than 15 based twice in his career.

Abreu did it 13 times.

[happybat4]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

No, he didn't. He only more than 25 home runs twice in his career. 

Vlad never once had more than 15 assists in a season, Abreu had 17 once.

Vlad had more than 10 errors 7 times. Abreu never had 10 or more in a year.

[tdawg87]

This argument is fun.

The ultimate point being that Abreu is underrated as hell by pretty much everyone.

Does he belong in the HOF? Probably not. I don't think so. But he had a hell of a career.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Funny we are talking about 1999, as this thread reminds me of the baseball discussions I’d have on yahoo back in ‘99.

[AngelsLakersFan]

15 hours ago, Lou said:

Ok, so tell me the times Gwynn was selected to the ASG because of his popularity.

Every time

[AngelsLakersFan]

I’m changing my opinion and putting Abreu in the hall of fame now just to spite blarg.

[tdawg87]

Blarg likes his brown people brown. None of this caramel mocha bullshit.

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

WAR wasn't really around back in the 90s, or at least barely so. Back then, statnerds looked at the Bill James stuff like Runs Created and Offensive Winning %. I think WARP (Baseball Prospectus) came first, probably sometime in the late 90s. It wasn't added to Fangraphs until 2008, and Baseball Reference until 2010.

Yep... WAR is definitely one of the newer attempts to find an all encompassing stats, but it remains completely useless for projection purposes. 

Runs created was the starting point for all the stats that followed.  Keith Woolner used RC as his starting point for what eventually became VORP which morphed into WARP..  Bill James was toying with the concept of WIN SHARES in the late 90s but didn't finalize  his formula until 2001 and didn't publish his book until 2002.   Win shares was always iffy,never caught on.

10 hours ago, Tank said:

How many people were paying attention to OPS and WAR in 1999? I’m guessing it wasn’t very many, aside from @Inside Pitch.

I was not a fan of raw OPS because it treated OBP and SLG% as if they were equal (and it's not park adjusted), but it was definitely the most accessible of the "saber" stats in the 90s ahd I found myself constantly using it.   STATSINC tracked OPS+ in season so, kind of how I will use bWAR for quick looks and fWAR for deeper dives, I'd use OPS+ when actually trying to compare players.

[Inside Pitch]

On 12/28/2021 at 9:07 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Fun fact: Ty Cobb led the AL in slugging eight times. Interesting to think of, as we think of him as a high average, speed guy. But he also had good power for that era.

He had great speed which helped him pile up 2Bs.  Some parks had power alleys or CF wall distances of 450+ feet.  So if a ball got by an OFer it might be a while before it stopped rolling.

He was so jealous of guys with actual power that he pushed the narrative that sluggers were "cheap" hitters and that guys such as himself were "pure hitters" who did more than just lazily hit HRs.. He was a giant prick and the writers of the day fell in line.

The term "pure hitter" was actually a dig aimed at guys like Ruth, and meant as an insult to them.

If they ever make a HOF for assholes.. He's the gold standard.

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I like how this is a legit argument.

Well done, @Stradling.

You’re welcome. 

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

No, he didn't. He only more than 25 home runs twice in his career. 

Well said.

[Taylor]

Blarg, remember how you used to die on the hill that pitcher wins were the best way to gauge a pitcher's value? This feels kind of like that.

[happybat4]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Fun fact: Ty Cobb led the AL in slugging eight times. Interesting to think of, as we think of him as a high average, speed guy. But he also had good power for that era.

Yep game was different than. He led league in home runs with 9 one year. He was also top 5 seven times.

[Angelsjunky]

13 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yep... WAR is definitely one of the newer attempts to find an all encompassing stats, but it remains completely useless for projection purposes. 

Runs created was the starting point for all the stats that followed.  Keith Woolner used RC as his starting point for what eventually became VORP which morphed into WARP..  Bill James was toying with the concept of WIN SHARES in the late 90s but didn't finalize  his formula until 2001 and didn't publish his book until 2002.   Win shares was always iffy,never caught on.

I think part of the reason it never caught on is that its behind a pay-wall, so it is partially Bill James own damn fault. James is still quite critical of WAR...and I think he makes some good points.

13 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

He had great speed which helped him pile up 2Bs.  Some parks had power alleys or CF wall distances of 450+ feet.  So if a ball got by an OFer it might be a while before it stopped rolling.

He was so jealous of guys with actual power that he pushed the narrative that sluggers were "cheap" hitters and that guys such as himself were "pure hitters" who did more than just lazily hit HRs.. He was a giant prick and the writers of the day fell in line.

The term "pure hitter" was actually aimed at guys like Ruth, and meant as an insult to them.

If they ever make a HOF for assholes.. He's the gold standard.

True. Or Enos Slaughter, who arguably has the greatest baseball name ever.

Cobb also lead the majors in HR one year, winning the Triple Crown, although I wonder how many of those were inside the park. When people started lofting the ball more after Ruth showed the way in 1919, Cobb never really adjusted...maybe he was too stubborn and just set in his ways. He did hit 12 HR a couple times, but i Imagine that if he had started 10 years later he would have hit 20 HR a year. Meaning, I don't think his power was purely the result of big fields and his speed. He had a bit of pop.

The guy that stands out to me from that era, that was every bit the hitter that Cobb was but had power as well, was Rogers Hornsby - also a legendary prick. But unlike Cobb, Hornsby both adjusted to the power swing and hit for absurdly high averages. He is one guy that often gets forgotten historically, but he was pretty much the Babe Ruth of the NL during the 20s, leading the league BA seven times, OBP nine times, and SLG ten times over the course of his career, mostly in the 20s. If Ruth and Williams are the clear top two hitters in baseball history, Hornsby is among a short list vying for third -- at least taking all eras as equally valid.

 

[Angelsjunky]

15 hours ago, Blarg said:

You just named everyone tied to steroids during that time period. So you've said he wasn't better than the worst cheats in baseball. 

In his prime Vlad was a five tool player. He had speed, an arm like a cannon, ability to steal bases, hit for average, for power, he had it all and it wasn't from a syringe. That shithole astroturf stadium took its toll on Guerrero's legs, had Jr played his entire career on grass his numbers would have been better, longer. 

But, Abreu was a good player.  Not Hall of Fame or even perennial All Star because each season there was usually someone better that earned that seat on the bench. Like Vlad. 

Sorry, I don't think you can so easily write players off due to steroids, especially because we don't really know who is "guilty" and who isn't, or for what periods of time. I mean, we know some guys that are, but that doesn't mean that other guys didn't use. Furthermore, for many years, steroids were more frowned upon than actually illegal -- they weren't fully banned until 2005, after Bonds' crazy run and the best years of most of those players. And if Jose Canseco is correct, as many as 80% used..so are you going to assume that Vlad is part of the 20%?

And even if you want to invalidate players for steroid use, you can't write off their whole careers. Bonds didn't start using until after 1998, when he had already established himself as an inner circle Hall of Famer. A-Rod claims he only used in 2001-03, and he was great before and pretty great after.

I have no idea if Vlad used or not, and honestly, I don't care. The situation is just too messy to get self-righteous about, so I think all we can do is allow the era and statistics to stand for themselves, rather than play make-believe and single out who we think are the bad guys and good guys.

But as I said, he was a great player, and he had great tools. But baseball isn't only about tools, but how you actualize them. I mean, look at Jo Adell. I think the numbers I shared in my previous post speak for themselves: Vlad was a top 10 player during his prime, but not top 5, and certainly not "generational." I think of that era, I'd take peak Bonds, Griffey, A-Rod, Bagwell, and Pujols over peak Vlad, and Manny was a better hitter. Vlad and Abreu are an interesting comp, because their overall results were similar, but they went about it in very different ways. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

One guy who doesn't get enough love from that era is Lance Berkman. His problem was longevity: he didn't have his first full season until age 25, and his last at 35, but in that time he was one of the best hitters in baseball. He finished his career with a .293/.406/.537 line, with a 144 wRC+ and 55.9 WAR. But he only played in 1879 games.

I'm not saying that Berkman belongs in the Hall, but he certainly deserves mention. Similarly with Brian Giles, who hit .291/.400/.502, 136 wRC+ and 54.8 WAR, but only 1847 games. Both of these guys are examples of players who are really only separated from the Hall by two or three peak years and/or three or four solid years.

[floplag]

On 12/23/2021 at 7:07 PM, Stradling said:

I came across this tweet and it got me thinking, is Abreu hall of fame worthy?  He absolutely should be in the discussion.  

I think he’s a guy that will probably get a long look by the veteran committee in a couple decades.  He was ahead of his time.  

my first thought was, no, next.... but i did a little more looking and i have to say the numbers do make a crap ton of sense in comparison to Gwynn.
On tyop of the above he had a higher career OBP, SLG, and OPS, but of course didnt have Gwynn's AVG, but was only 4 pts behind on OPS+.  
What it comes down to is simply that Gwynn was a hitter, Abreu was more of a moneyball type. having over twice the walks as Gwynn, but also about 4 times the Ks. 
This to me is the separator.. Gwynn likely forgot more about actually hitting than Abreu ever knew by the standards of their day.  But when you look at it thru todays lens, the gap closes. 
BUT, in all fairness, if Gwynns numbers were hall worthy, Abreu has to at least be in the conversation statistically.
Youre right though, the vets committees will have a lot of conversations on this one im sure.