Bobby Abreu HOFer?

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

Because of the election of others guys, he should be in. At least he arguably deserves it based on the frame of reference. Some guys just shouldn't be in. Like Baines. 

I don't want the Baseball HOF to become like Football or Basketball, which seemingly elect anyone who was a multi-time all star/pro bowler.

Yet it already kind of is, mainly due to the Veteran's Committee, but also quite a few dubious choices and a tendency to favor nice guys over pricks. So the problem always becomes, is this guy better than some guys in the Hall? Because of many VC choices--and more recent choices like Baines--the answer is "yes" for a lot of fringe guys like Abreu. 

So it is a damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of thing. Electing Abreu continues to water down the Hall, yet on the other hand he's more deserving than a bunch of guys already in. So what to do? I don't think there's a good answer.

I know they can't--or at least won't--do this, but I kind of wish they scrapped the whole thing and started over, especially with recent tools like WAR. Or maybe have tiers: the Golden tier (inner circle greats, or roughly 100+ WAR), the Silver tier (garden variety greats, or 80-100 WAR), and the Bronze hall (lesser greats and Hall of Very, Very Good, or 50-80 WAR).

Of course that would make things even more complex...is this guy Gold or Silver, this guy Silver or Bronze? Etc.

As for Gwynn and Abreu, the Hall tends to favor guys with extraordinary single skills over guys who are all around good. Gwynn's hit tool was extraordinary; Abreu was good at everything, but didn't have a specific skill that was truly extraordinary. While Abreu was, in his prime, a better overall player, it is worth. noting that even according to WAR--which loves players like Abreu--Gwynn still created more value over the course of his career, even if only by a small amount. So while I agree with @tdawg87 that Gwynn is somewhat historically overrated, or at least was when he played, it is easy also to under-rate him, because he doesn't have a sexy OBP or SLG.

Edited December 27, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[ten ocho recon scout]

I just remember abreu at his peak being one of the ultimate fantasy baseball players. (And I never played fantasy ball). But every year it seemed like he was 20 plus home runs, 20 plus steals, 100 rbi, 100 scored or something like that. Super steady.

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Adam said:

This is probably the best argument against Abreu. It's the Hall of "Fame" not Hall of "Best Statistical Achieving Players if you squint hard enough"

 

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I just remember abreu at his peak being one of the ultimate fantasy baseball players. (And I never played fantasy ball). But every year it seemed like he was 20 plus home runs, 20 plus steals, 100 rbi, 100 scored or something like that. Super steady.

The Hall of Super Steady Fantasy Baseball Players awaits his induction. 

[Angelsjunky]

57 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I just remember abreu at his peak being one of the ultimate fantasy baseball players. (And I never played fantasy ball). But every year it seemed like he was 20 plus home runs, 20 plus steals, 100 rbi, 100 scored or something like that. Super steady.

Yep, plus about 100 walks a year.

He's something more than a Hall of the Very Good type, but something less than a surefire Hall of Famer. See my list above.

[happybat4]

5 hours ago, Lou said:

Those aren't the same things. 

Sure it is. Their based off reputation instead of actual production.

[happybat4]

I personally don't think he is a HOF player, I think he falls just short. But it does show how underrated he was and how overrated Gwynn was.

[Lou]

2 hours ago, happybat4 said:

Sure it is. Their based off reputation instead of actual production.

Not really. Players having good seasons are generally rewarded by being named to the AS team.

How many times did Gwynn not deserve to be in the ASG? 

[Lou]

If you think Gwynn was selected to the ASG based on reputation, you are crazy. These are his stats over the last 7 times he was selected:

.358 BA

 .402/.504/.907

142 OPS+ 

In those 7 seasons, he hit over .350 and had an OBP over .398 five times. 

 

It had absolutely nothing to do with reputation.

[happybat4]

26 minutes ago, Lou said:

If you think Gwynn was selected to the ASG based on reputation, you are crazy. These are his stats over the last 7 times he was selected:

.358 BA

 .402/.504/.907

142 OPS+ 

In those 7 seasons, he hit over .350 and had an OBP over .398 five times. 

 

It had absolutely nothing to do with reputation.

Gwynn had 7 seasons that were sub 3 war and was selected as an all-star.

Abreu had 7 seasons with over 3 war in which he wasn't selected for the all-star game.

[Blarg]

There were obviously better players than Abreu in the American League that bocked his selection. So your point falls on deaf ears. 

[Lou]

14 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

Gwynn had 7 seasons that were sub 3 war and was selected as an all-star.

Abreu had 7 seasons with over 3 war in which he wasn't selected for the all-star game.

Your comment related Gwynn's selections to the ASG was due to reputation. His career numbers pre-ASG:

.342 BA

.395/.472/.867

 

Your comparison to Jeter fails. 

[nando714]

When guys like 

Schilling, Bonds, ARod, Clemens, McGuire, Rose can’t get in but people mention Abreu 

lol 

[Taylor]

9 hours ago, Adam said:

This is probably the best argument against Abreu. It's the Hall of "Fame" not Hall of "Best Statistical Achieving Players"

Meh, All Star Games are a popularity contest. I don't think they should have any impact on whether someone should be in the HoF.

[Taylor]

7 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I just remember abreu at his peak being one of the ultimate fantasy baseball players. (And I never played fantasy ball). But every year it seemed like he was 20 plus home runs, 20 plus steals, 100 rbi, 100 scored or something like that. Super steady.

I had him on my fantasy team the year he had 40 steals.

[Lou]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

Meh, All Star Games are a popularity contest

Do you think the reason Gwynn was selected was because he was popular?

[happybat4]

6 hours ago, Lou said:

Your comment related Gwynn's selections to the ASG was due to reputation. His career numbers pre-ASG:

.342 BA

.395/.472/.867

 

Your comparison to Jeter fails. 

Abreu had a 853 career OPS pre all star break.

Gwynn is great and he certainly deserved most of his all star appearances, but he didn't deserve all of them and Abreu certainly deserved more.

People loved batting average back than so he was going no matter what.

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

Abreu had a 853 career OPS pre all star break.

Gwynn is great and he certainly deserved most of his all star appearances, but he didn't deserve all of them and Abreu certainly deserved more.

People loved batting average back than so he was going no matter what.

Again, you related Gwynn's selections to Jeters' good gloves as being garnered because of reputation.  It's simply not true. He deserved to go. 

Whether or not Abreu deserved to go to more is another topic. 

[Stradling]

17 hours ago, Lou said:

Those aren't the same things. 

They are both popularity contests. 

[Stradling]

7 hours ago, nando714 said:

When guys like 

Schilling, Bonds, ARod, Clemens, McGuire, Rose can’t get in but people mention Abreu 

lol 

Rose will never be in and he’s only got himself to blame and if Abreu is linked to PEDs then I agree with you.  

[Lou]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

They are both popularity contests. 

Keep reading

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, Lou said:

Keep reading

I did

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I did

Ok, so tell me the times Gwynn was selected to the ASG because of his popularity.

[happybat4]

9 hours ago, Blarg said:

There were obviously better players than Abreu in the American League that bocked his selection. So your point falls on deaf ears. 

Who and in what years?

[happybat4]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Ok, so tell me the times Gwynn was selected to the ASG because of his popularity.

1999.

He had a 858 OPS at the break and was voted in (also less than a single WAR at the break.)

Abreu didn't make it that year even though at the break he had a 970 OPS (and a 323 average) with 11 stolen bases.

Brian Giles had a 980 OPS at the break and didn't get selected.

Ricky Henderson had a .894 OPS at the break with 24 stolen bases and wasn't selected.

Carl Everett had an .878 OPS with 21 stolen bases at the break and wasn't selected.

Mike Cameron had an 848 OPS and 28 stolen bases at the break and wasn't chosen (plus great defense that year).

Andrew Jones had a 7+ WAR that year and didn't get selected (he had a .840 OPS at the break).

Kevin Young had a 918 OPS at the break (14 SB)

Reggie Sanders had a 985 OPS at the break with 20 stolen bases and wasn't selected.

This is one year, but Gwynn certainly had years where he was an all star and certainly didn't deserve it.