Kevin Gausman?

[T.G.]

If Minasian and his team have interest, I'm good with that. 

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, halonatic13 said:

What's the lovefest with Gausman?  1 1/2 years of being ok?  Contract year and he becomes Cy Young?  I'd prefer Max for 3 and hope the young kids are ready.

Everyone would want Mad Max but would he come here or Dodgers. I feel Minasian cannot play wait and see. Halos may have to roll the dice on Gausman. Again if he wants to come here and not stay in SF. 

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

No argument but I personally want this organization to AIM HIGHER.

I don’t want to add to the back of the rotation.

I don’t want to add to the middle of the rotation.

I want to add to the front end of the rotation.

To me anyway, the difference is worth the incremental expense, especially if the team manages to make the playoffs.

They are not easy to come by.

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Angels 1961 said:

They are not easy to come by.

Correct.  I want an organization capable of doing things that are not easy.

[Angels 1961]

26 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Correct.  I want an organization capable of doing things that are not easy.

 

27 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Correct.  I want an organization capable of doing things that are not easy.

Go up 5 fwy

[Hubs]

47 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Everyone would want Mad Max but would he come here or Dodgers. I feel Minasian cannot play wait and see. Halos may have to roll the dice on Gausman. Again if he wants to come here and not stay in SF. 

Two free agents have just turned down multiple year offers to come here because they want to be here. 

Granted, Gausman and Scherzer were in good environments last year, but I don't know if either team wants to pay that kind of money for a starter. Even if they're two of the best.

 

[Torridd]

3 hours ago, Mark68 said:

Mariners, Angels, Giants, Jays Pursuing Kevin Gausman - MLB Trade Rumors

"The Mariners and Angels are both showing some degree of interest in free-agent righty Kevin Gausman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Gausman has also been tied to the Blue Jays and the incumbent Giants, who have been active in the rotation market this week."

I'd love Gausman, although my main pick would be Stroman. However, I'd be surprised if he didn't re-sign with the Giants.

[Erstad Grit]

I want one of Gausman, Stroman, Ray, or Max and yet I'd put Gausman at 4th on my list.  I'd be excited because he's far better than what we've had.  

[Torridd]

Just now, Erstad Grit said:

I want one of Gausman, Stroman, Ray, or Max and yet I'd put Gausman at 4th on my list.  I'd be excited because he's far better than what we've had.  

Exactly. We need at least one more starter who's established.

[totdprods]

Gausman has never really been horrible. He had a bloated ERA of 6.19 with ATL in '19 (near 4.00 the rest of the year with Cincy) but that also came with a 4.20 FIP and a .350 BAbip. 

His BB/9 with ATL that year was a tick above 3, which was a tad high for him (career was 2.7) . His K/9 was 9.6, way up from his career of 8.1 at that time. That leads me to believe he found something new with his stuff, and he lost a bit of control as he ironed it out. Up until that point, he had been a pretty steady, consistent #3-#4 type throughout his mid 20's. He's pretty much been that aside from those 16 rough starts with Atlanta and his brilliant 33 GS with SF this year. 

With his age, consistency, and the uptick in stuff he's shown the last couple years, he seems like a pretty safe #2 type pitcher. Could have a #1 type season or two in him still, very likely could be more of a 3.50-4 ERA guy right out of the gate, but I don't see anything that makes me too worried he'd drop off and suddenly be a 4.50-5.00 ERA albatross. 

Something like Zach Wheeler money, 5/$115m, seems pretty fair. Anything past that and I'd start getting a little uncomfortable. Likelier he gets more like 5/$125m, which I could live with. I'd rather pay that for Gausman than that or more for Ray. 

 

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Gausman has never really been horrible. He had a bloated ERA of 6.19 with ATL in '19 (near 4.00 the rest of the year with Cincy) but that also came with a 4.20 FIP and a .350 BAbip. 

His BB/9 with ATL that year was a tick above 3, which was a tad high for him (career was 2.7) . His K/9 was 9.6, way up from his career of 8.1 at that time. That leads me to believe he found something new with his stuff, and he lost a bit of control as he ironed it out. Up until that point, he had been a pretty steady, consistent #3-#4 type throughout his mid 20's. He's pretty much been that aside from those 16 rough starts with Atlanta and his brilliant 33 GS with SF this year. 

With his age, consistency, and the uptick in stuff he's shown the last couple years, he seems like a pretty safe #2 type pitcher. Could have a #1 type season or two in him still, very likely could be more of a 3.50-4 ERA guy right out of the gate, but I don't see anything that makes me too worried he'd drop off and suddenly be a 4.50-5.00 ERA albatross. 

Something like Zach Wheeler money, 5/$115m, seems pretty fair. Anything past that and I'd start getting a little uncomfortable. Likelier he gets more like 5/$125m, which I could live with. I'd rather pay that for Gausman than that or more for Ray. 

 

I kind like Ray because (other than the risk that every pitcher carries) his only real risk seems to be control.  He looks like he conquered that last year.  He has always had the spin rate and velocity and stuff.

So even if he regressed a little in control, he is still a damn good pitcher.

I think that makes more sense than gambling on other risks.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I kind like Ray because (other than the risk that every pitcher carries) his only real risk seems to be control.  He looks like he conquered that last year.  He has always had the spin rate and velocity and stuff.

So to keep even if he regressed a little in control, he is still a damn good pitcher.

I think that makes more sense than gambling on other risks.

Ray's stuff is absolutely more electric. I just feel he's 1) going to command more because of that, especially being left-handed and coming off a Cy and 2) seems to have a little more preference to non-West Coast...basing this off nothing, but just a hunch based on where he's from, which teams are being connected the most, the Blue Jays pressing needs...

Factor those in and that's why I think Gausman is likelier.

[Dtwncbad]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Ray's stuff is absolutely more electric. I just feel he's 1) going to command more because of that, especially being left-handed and coming off a Cy and 2) seems to have a little more preference to non-West Coast...basing this off nothing, but just a hunch based on where he's from, which teams are being connected the most, the Blue Jays pressing needs...

Factor those in and that's why I think Gausman is likelier.

I might agree Gausman is more likely but I would very much prefer Ray, even at the additional expense.

Angels have one ring in 60 years, and it has been decades since 2002.

Don’t hold back.  Throw some huge nuts up on the table.

I can live with losing if it is obvious they put their best foot forward.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[totdprods]

Totally pointless fun with numbers:

Angels Top 5 SP in 2002 by ERA+:
Washburn 141
Lackey 121
Ortiz 118
Appier 113
Sele 91

Angels Top 5 SP in 2022 using last season:
Gausman 145 or Ray 154
Ohtani 141
Sandoval 124
Suarez 119
Syndergaard 96 ('19)

Ray's career ERA+ is 110, Gausman is 105. 
Honestly, both are extremely similar, having only really had a bad half season surrounded by a bunch of #3-4 type seasons, and one brilliant #1 type season.

My biggest concern with Gausman, someone else mentioned it, was that his pitch arsenal profiles a little too similarly to Ohtani. Could give a team too much of the same look in a series. 

Ironically, Stroman really compares well too their career production and perhaps has been the most stable, consistent, track record, all of them, without having to battle control or develop an extra pitch. The more I look into each of them, the more I kinda say it doesn't really matter, just sign one of these guys. Biggest difference might be that Ray costs another pick.

Edited November 24, 2021 by totdprods

[Erstad Grit]

34 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Ray's stuff is absolutely more electric. I just feel he's 1) going to command more because of that, especially being left-handed and coming off a Cy and 2) seems to have a little more preference to non-West Coast...basing this off nothing, but just a hunch based on where he's from, which teams are being connected the most, the Blue Jays pressing needs...

Factor those in and that's why I think Gausman is likelier.

100% Agree

Ray is best SP available as a FA who doesn't have age/injury risk attached to him IMO. 

I'd be happy with Gausman which would give us three legitimate # 2 SP, but Ray is so dang sexy.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

Id still prefer Stroman to them all. Not sure why. Just seems to have the least amount of question marks

[Dtwncbad]

25 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Totally pointless fun with numbers:

Angels Top 5 SP in 2002 by ERA+:
Washburn 141
Lackey 121
Ortiz 118
Appier 113
Sele 91

Angels Top 5 SP in 2022 using last season:
Gausman 145 or Ray 154
Ohtani 141
Sandoval 124
Suarez 119
Syndergaard 96 ('19)

Ray's career ERA+ is 110, Gausman is 105. 
Honestly, both are extremely similar, having only really had a bad half season surrounded by a bunch of #3-4 type seasons, and one brilliant #1 type season.

My biggest concern with Gausman, someone else mentioned it, was that his pitch arsenal profiles a little too similarly to Ohtani. Could give a team too much of the same look in a series. 

Ironically, Stroman really compares well too their career production and perhaps has been the most stable, consistent, track record, all of them, without having to battle control or develop an extra pitch. The more I look into each of them, the more I kinda say it doesn't really matter, just sign one of these guys. Biggest difference might be that Ray costs another pick.

I don’t think the Angels starting staff was set up well to win it all in 2002.

They did, but I would not follow that as a reliable blueprint.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I don’t think the Angels starting staff was set up well to win it all in 2002.

They did, but I would not follow that as a reliable blueprint.

Nope, but it can work. Of course the game has changed much since then. 

[Taylor]

The people who don't want Gausman:

[ten ocho recon scout]

55 minutes ago, Taylor said:

The people who don't want Gausman:

Theres some truth to this (and its funny), but outside of last year, hes been pretty average. A few years we'd love to have, a few years of what we've had too much of

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I don’t think the Angels starting staff was set up well to win it all in 2002.

They did, but I would not follow that as a reliable blueprint.

They actually allowed the fewest runs in the American League in both bullpen and starting pitching. That staff was surprisingly great. Just like 2011 staff which was the best staff we had under Scioscia. It’s a lot of preparation. but then you need a little luck too

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Theres some truth to this (and its funny), but outside of last year, hes been pretty average. A few years we'd love to have, a few years of what we've had too much of

His career FIP and ERA+ put him high in the pantherian pitcher standings.

[ScottM]

Stroman or Ray plz. 

[Docwaukee]

Not a fan.  Mostly because it's gonna take 5+ years and 100+ mil to get him.  

[Dtwncbad]

 

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Not a fan.  Mostly because it's gonna take 5+ years and 100+ mil to get him.  

Yeah all of my instincts tell me 5 years is a mistake for Gausman.

I would be more comfortable with that length of contract for Stroman or Ray.