Kevin Gausman?

[ten ocho recon scout]

59 minutes ago, Taylor said:

His career FIP and ERA+ put him high in the pantherian pitcher standings.

I dont know near enough about FIP, but unless Im seeing it wrong, as far as era+, he looks like he had last year (huge), with a few other good ones, and a decent amount of bad ones. 

 

I dunno

 

If we sign him, Ill be happy we added someone. Id just prefer someone without as many ups and downs.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

 

Yeah all of my instincts tell me 5 years is a mistake for Gausman.

I would be more comfortable with that length of contract for Stroman or Ray.

Even Ray kind of worries me, to be honest. The 2021 version would be amazing to get. But his overall numbers again dont scream out to me "this is the guy".

Stroman to me just seems less likely to have a great year than Ray or Gausman, but less likely to have a letdown one too.

 

Ill defer to everyone else on here thats better at this stuff than I am. Theres no Cole this year, no Bauer, and we're not getting Scherzer. If thats the case, Id prefer to grab the solid 2 vs the maybe ace, maybe 3.

[Docwaukee]

17 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

 

Yeah all of my instincts tell me 5 years is a mistake for Gausman.

I would be more comfortable with that length of contract for Stroman or Ray.

Ray would probably top my list considering he's got the best stuff.  But they're all with a few months of a each other age wise.  Who knows.  Maybe Gausman found a different gear.  But san fran's awesome d played a huge role in his success this year.  Hits and hrs given up were the main reason his performance improved dramatically.  

Ray on the other hand found the strike zone.  Is that real and sustainable?  I don't know.  

Stroman is the most consistent but mostly because of his GB rate which scares the crap out of me considering that the halos have really sucked at optimizing that over the last couple years.  

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

Stroman is the most consistent but mostly because of his GB rate which scares the crap out of me considering that the halos have really sucked at optimizing that over the last couple years.  

 

As soon as we sign him to a multiyear deal Im sure he'll start giving up a lot more homers, so dont worry about that part too much

[Mark68]

26 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I dont know near enough about FIP, but unless Im seeing it wrong, as far as era+, he looks like he had last year (huge), with a few other good ones, and a decent amount of bad ones. 

 

I dunno

 

If we sign him, Ill be happy we added someone. Id just prefer someone without as many ups and downs.

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching--It's a stat that measures what is within the pitcher's control, as sometimes ERA reflects bad luck (bad fielding, seeing-eye singles, bloop hits, etc).

[ten ocho recon scout]

59 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching--It's a stat that measures what is within the pitcher's control, as sometimes ERA reflects bad luck (bad fielding, seeing-eye singles, bloop hits, etc).

Im familiar with it, but not enough. Whats the baseline for average, and whats considered good?

[arch stanton]

33 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Im familiar with it, but not enough. Whats the baseline for average, and whats considered good?

That depends. What argument are you trying to make?

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Im familiar with it, but not enough. Whats the baseline for average, and whats considered good?

4.2 is average.  3.2 is excellent.  above 5 is awful.  It only accounts for balls not in play.  Some would say that it only accounts for things that the pitcher can control but personally I disagree with that.  I think a pitcher can control the quality of contact to some degree.  And defense has a lot to do with that in my opinion.   

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/32667/kevin-gausman I go to ESPN as it shows the breakdown per start, opponents and shows stadiums. Which also comes into my thoughts tempered with my playing the game and knowledge of scouting and coaching of young players. Which they get better as you work with them same as an older player. Think David Justice in the movie moneyball...He had to work into their system of taking pitches 

When I'm looking at any Pitcher all the stat breakdowns are great. But, I also look at splits and what he did against the other teams in his division, our division (which in a single start each he didn't fair well against Houston or Oakland) and The bottom rung. Yes, I also understand inter-league is an extremely small sample size but then let's go to 2019 stats and dig a little there as well. And then go into his career in the AL East and you see his stats weren't very good against the Yankees, Toronto and Rays. He was younger. But, he did better in a smaller sample size in Atlanta and now you want me to agree that last year was the Break Through?

The historical stats compared to last season don't suggest anything other than a healthy arm that feasted. And that could be the Giants organizational defensive beliefs, pre-scouting of opponents and pitching coach assessment. Look at the other arms that came to life in San Francisco last year DeSclafani and Wood..Even Cueto's ERA dropped a run vs the last few years.That would lean more to great health overall and some solid pre-scouting of opponents with a tinge of organizational pitching philosophy! Which leans more to the Giants organizational beliefs than about the arms themselves! What they needed was health and then mix in the Giants info. Which is why everyone was shocked at the 107 wins and the jump in the older players coming to life... I think it has more to do with the above and health.

I don't mind him. I'm just not enthralled with him as a 1 or 2 @ 20M-25M-30M per to me it just screams UPTOWN extension... compared to Stroman who has done it in a tough division historically the AL East. Scherzer (will command a shit ton of $ and he is aging) or even Ray (who has had the arm but not consistency). 

I just believe most in here who are knowledgeable just go based purely off analytics and % they believe in. But, don't truly understand there are other intricacies of the game. Yard, opponent,  opponents season, young team? Older team? More aggressive swingers at the plate?..It's not you, it's me....

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

11 hours ago, Mark68 said:

FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching--It's a stat that measures what is within the pitcher's control, as sometimes ERA reflects bad luck (bad fielding, seeing-eye singles, bloop hits, etc).

 

10 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Im familiar with it, but not enough. Whats the baseline for average, and whats considered good?

Thing with FIP it also doesn't bring into the equation team defensive alignments or philosophy as in propensity to over use of the over-shift...

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

4.2 is average.  3.2 is excellent.  above 5 is awful.  It only accounts for balls not in play.  Some would say that it only accounts for things that the pitcher can control but personally I disagree with that.  I think a pitcher can control the quality of contact to some degree.  And defense has a lot to do with that in my opinion.   

Agreed, which also brings in the feel for pitching, consistency and command of each pitch in the zone, and pitch sequencing.

Which is why we had so many issues last year with the young arms. Kid arms have so many other things going through their minds.

It has finally taken Sandavol what 3 years to get it and then a back injury derails it.

Suarez 3 years? You see where I'm going now blend in the AAA shuttle for the bullpen, and 2 spots in the rotation! And you have a #shitshow.

[eligrba]

38 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/32667/kevin-gausman I go to ESPN as it shows the breakdown per start, opponents and shows stadiums. Which also comes into my thoughts tempered with my playing the game and knowledge of scouting and coaching of young players. Which they get better as you work with them same as an older player. Think David Justice in the movie moneyball...He had to work into their system of taking pitches 

When I'm looking at any Pitcher all the stat breakdowns are great. But, I also look at splits and what he did against the other teams in his division, our division (which in a single start each he didn't fair well against Houston or Oakland) and The bottom rung. Yes, I also understand inter-league is an extremely small sample size but then let's go to 2019 stats and dig a little there as well. And then go into his career in the AL East and you see his stats weren't very good against the Yankees, Toronto and Rays. He was younger. But, he did better in a smaller sample size in Atlanta and now you want me to agree that last year was the Break Through?

The historical stats compared to last season don't suggest anything other than a healthy arm that feasted. And that could be the Giants organizational defensive beliefs, pre-scouting of opponents and pitching coach assessment. Look at the other arms that came to life in San Francisco last year DeSclafani and Wood...That would lean more to great health and some solid pre-scouting of opponents with a tinge of organizational pitching philosophy! Which leans more to the Giants organizational beliefs than about the arms themselves! What they needed was health and then mix in the Giants info. Which is why everyone was shocked at the 107 wins and the jump in the older players coming to life... I think it has more to do with the above and health.

I don't mind him. I'm just not enthralled with him as a 1 or 2 @ 20M-25M-30M per to me it just screams UPTOWN extension... compared to Stroman who has done it in a tough division historically the AL East. Scherzer (will command a shit ton of $ and he is aging) or even Ray (who has had the arm but not consistency). 

I just believe most in here who are knowledgeable just go based purely off analytics and % they believe in. But, don't truly understand there are other intricacies of the game. Yard, opponent,  opponents season, young team? Older team? More aggressive swingers at the plate?..It's not you, it's me....

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!

I think the difference between teams who can routinely improve player performances is with the ability of the coaching staff to simultaneously understand each player's capabilities while providing them with precise feedback that can result in incremental changes.  The player has to also buy into the feedback and trust the coaches in this process.

It is such a paradox that players are asked to conscientiously practice fundamental movements during drills and then be told to just go play at game time.  The amount of change Jo Adell showed this year with his fundamentals demonstrates the power of knowing the player, providing precise feedback and having the player committed to the process.  His change really is a combination of his commitment and coaching.  Adell deserves a lot of recognition for his efforts.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

11 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I think the difference between teams who can routinely improve player performances is with the ability of the coaching staff to simultaneously understand each player's capabilities while providing them with precise feedback that can result in incremental changes.  The player has to also buy into the feedback and trust the coaches in this process.

It is such a paradox that players are asked to conscientiously practice fundamental movements during drills and then be told to just go play at game time.  The amount of change Jo Adell showed this year with his fundamentals demonstrates the power of knowing the player, providing precise feedback and having the player committed to the process.  His change really is a combination of his commitment and coaching.  Adell deserves a lot of recognition for his efforts.

I agree 100% with your thought Eli ! Which is also why I believe Adell and Marsh while watching them their 1st time around was tough but last year with Adell and Marsh's month of August at bats vs his September decline is just a long season. It's a grind. And learning on the fly sucks!

Overall, they showed they belong here.

[Blarg]

I hope the Angels are not interested in Gausman. I think he is going to be the biggest waste of money in starting pitching this off season and hopefully one of our division rivals is the victim.

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 11/25/2021 at 12:58 AM, Dochalo said:

4.2 is average.  3.2 is excellent.  above 5 is awful.  It only accounts for balls not in play.  Some would say that it only accounts for things that the pitcher can control but personally I disagree with that.  I think a pitcher can control the quality of contact to some degree.  And defense has a lot to do with that in my opinion.   

This is the traditional description of FIP, but it's not really true. FIP has Innings Pitched as the divisor which means that it is crediting the pitchers for all outs recorded. Pitchers who play in front of good/lucky defenses will have better FIPs, but the results won't be as significant as they would be with ERA.

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

My biggest concern with Gausman is his second half struggles. irs half he was lights out, but in the second half he had an ERa above 4. 

[RallyMo]

August @Angel Oracle post with ”Come on Kevin Gauscan!” already drafted, I'm sure.

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

My biggest concern with Gausman is his second half struggles. irs half he was lights out, but in the second half he had an ERa above 4. 

An ERA above 4 but below 5 would be an ace on the Angels historically.

[Warfarin]

On 11/25/2021 at 9:26 AM, eligrba said:

I think the difference between teams who can routinely improve player performances is with the ability of the coaching staff to simultaneously understand each player's capabilities while providing them with precise feedback that can result in incremental changes.  The player has to also buy into the feedback and trust the coaches in this process.

It is such a paradox that players are asked to conscientiously practice fundamental movements during drills and then be told to just go play at game time.  The amount of change Jo Adell showed this year with his fundamentals demonstrates the power of knowing the player, providing precise feedback and having the player committed to the process.  His change really is a combination of his commitment and coaching.  Adell deserves a lot of recognition for his efforts.

This is a great summary.  The best organizations seem to excel at this - the FO and coaching staff have fantastic communication, and in turn they communicate well with the player and help tailor a developmental plan that is suited to the individual, based on their athletic abilities and limitations.

Not every player will respond to the same developmental plan similarly, so it's important to have a strong synergy from the very top of the organization all the way down to every single player.

It does take time to develop this kind of infrastructure, which is why it's rare to see a GM take over and completely change the team in a year.  Zaidi did it in 3 years with the Giants.  This is Minasian's second year, so let's see if both our MLB and minor league players take a positive step in year two collectively.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

This is the traditional description of FIP, but it's not really true. FIP has Innings Pitched as the divisor which means that it is crediting the pitchers for all outs recorded. Pitchers who play in front of good/lucky defenses will have better FIPs, but the results won't be as significant as they would be with ERA.

 

how so with the numerator not including anything to do with balls in play (except hrs of course)?  And the constant offsets the BIP assuming average outcomes for all of those.  All outs get credited but based on league average outcomes so it doesn't take into account a pitcher's ability to induce weak contact.  Accumulating more outs with the same ratio of hrs, bb, hbp and K keeps it the same.  Your FIP won't go down unless those other things follow suit even if you record more outs.   

[Lou]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

how so with the numerator not including anything to do with balls in play (except hrs of course)?  And the constant offsets the BIP assuming average outcomes for all of those.  All outs get credited but based on league average outcomes so it doesn't take into account a pitcher's ability to induce weak contact.  Accumulating more outs with the same ratio of hrs, bb, hbp and K keeps it the same.  Your FIP won't go down unless those other things follow suit even if you record more outs.   

You lost 93% of AW at numerator.

[AngelsLakersFan]

17 hours ago, Dochalo said:

how so with the numerator not including anything to do with balls in play (except hrs of course)?  And the constant offsets the BIP assuming average outcomes for all of those.  All outs get credited but based on league average outcomes so it doesn't take into account a pitcher's ability to induce weak contact.  Accumulating more outs with the same ratio of hrs, bb, hbp and K keeps it the same.  Your FIP won't go down unless those other things follow suit even if you record more outs.   

Getting outs improves your ratios. Let's look at two examples...

Pitcher A: 10HR / 30BB / 90K / 100IP / 3.614 FIP
Pitcher B: 10HR / 30BB / 90K / 115IP / 3.56 FP

So the effect is not as large as I had imagined but it is there. Point is, if you get a guy out it lowers your FIP no matter how you do it.

[tdawg87]

10 hours ago, Lou said:

You lost 93% of AW at numerator.

Public school. 

Or USC.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Public school. 

Or USC.

public school 5 years of HS fore me.

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Public school. 

Or USC.

They don't call it the University of Second Choice for nothing.