Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[AngelsLakersFan]

6 minutes ago, Wisconsin27 said:

Thanks and very well stated.  Your post and Warfarin's as well both emphasize a common thread; more time is needed for our prospects/pitchers to develop.  I don't disagree at all and organizationally I believe it's the correct pathway (and I think why I appreciate the work Billy did here more than most).  

It's just so hard to come to terms with knowing the solution you guys are suggesting will move us beyond the two year window.  I am optimistic Mike will be in the playoffs in an Angel uniform, I just hope it is time for him to be a true asset on ."that team and not the "one-time annual MVP candidate".

Where the three of us disagree is in the value of the TOR starters.  I am likely a bit old school and know it's not a requirement to have 3 TOR's (I live in Brewer country and they have been successful with a strong bullpen), but on the whole, it just seems teams in October have tremendous pitching.  I don't see ours as comparable at the moment and am not optimistic it will be developed or attained in the next two years. 

Again, I suppose I just need to come to terms with it.

 

If Syndergaard and Ohtani pitch like they are capable of, Sandoval and Suarez can be decent enough #3 & #4 starters in a post season series. There aren't going to be a lot of teams with a clearly better post season rotation. The differences will come in other areas, health, bullpen, defense and if we still can hit - those are far more questionable areas for this team than a post season rotation, IMO. 

[Dtwncbad]

20 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

They don't need a bat, they need a shortstop.

Sure, I agree.  But if we agree that is the position of need, I just want to see if this slice of the fanbase is in favor of signing a Correa or Story.

[Dtwncbad]

26 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Improving the team is improving the team.

I agree.  And yet if the Angels now signed a high quality shortstop people are going to instantly knee jerk into how Arte is stupid and “he did it again.”

[Stradling]

39 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I agree.  And yet if the Angels now signed a high quality shortstop people are going to instantly knee jerk into how Arte is stupid and “he did it again.”

Those people have consistently been idiots. So who cares?  

[Dtwncbad]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Those people have consistently been idiots. So who cares?  

I have my preferences and opinions at any moment for what I think the next move should be to improve the team.

But once that transaction doesn’t happen or if a different transaction happens then I immediately am asking, “Is the team better?” and “NOW what can they do?”

I thought spending big on a front line starter was the best priority.  They got Syndergaard but whiffed on the others.

What I don’t do now is be stubbornly against all other moves that could make the team better from here.

Just make it better!  I want to win.

Edited December 5, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[Warfarin]

2 hours ago, Wisconsin27 said:

Thanks and very well stated.  Your post and Warfarin's as well both emphasize a common thread; more time is needed for our prospects/pitchers to develop.  I don't disagree at all and organizationally I believe it's the correct pathway (and I think why I appreciate the work Billy did here more than most).  

It's just so hard to come to terms with knowing the solution you guys are suggesting will move us beyond the two year window.  I am optimistic Mike will be in the playoffs in an Angel uniform, I just hope it is time for him to be a true asset on ."that team and not the "one-time annual MVP candidate".

Where the three of us disagree is in the value of the TOR starters.  I am likely a bit old school and know it's not a requirement to have 3 TOR's (I live in Brewer country and they have been successful with a strong bullpen), but on the whole, it just seems teams in October have tremendous pitching.  I don't see ours as comparable at the moment and am not optimistic it will be developed or attained in the next two years. 

Again, I suppose I just need to come to terms with it.

 

Sure, I see what you are saying.  

I am encouraged by the progress we saw some of our young pitchers take in the last year.  Every time you change a GM, you likely see sweeping changes, which includes how the organization goes about developing young players.  Minasian took over 11/2020 and spent the offseason (and subsequent season) overhauling most aspects of the team, including how the organization drafts and develops talent.  Usually, it takes some time to see the impact of that overall truly come into fruition (look at the Giants with Zaidi).

So in that regard, I'm optimistic that we can see our pitchers start developing better on the whole.  Still, TOR starters don't grow on trees, and we likely don't have another one in the pipeline who can make an impact in 2022 season.  If we're in contention, we could always consider trading for someone like that at the trading deadline (like the Dodgers did with Scherzer this season).  I am not that in favor of trading prospects, but if we're in contention by the end of July, then I would support utilizing prospects to acquire what is needed for a title run.

[UndertheHalo]

I need @Stradling to know that I would not be mad if Arte signed Carlos Correa. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by UndertheHalo

[Stradling]

25 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I need @Stradling to know that I would not be mad if Arte signed Carlos Correa. 

Noted

[tdawg87]

@Stradling I also would not be mad if Arte signed Correa.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

@Stradling I also would not be mad if Arte signed Correa.

Suck up

[Revad]

I would be frustrated.  I’d rather Minasian have $20M more to address SS, C, SP and bullpen.  But I hope they spend for at least one more player good enough to impact somewhere, and if it's Correa so be it.

[wopphil]

I don’t think the Angels will (or should) spend on Correa. But damn, that lineup would be stupid. 

[Warfarin]

I wouldn't be happy if Arte spent on Correa because it'd be opportunity cost down the line.

I am hopeful that Syndergaard rebounds and that he decides to stay on a significant deal after the season.  I would like to see our core in the upcoming years as Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, and Syndergaard.  Assuming Ohtani/Trout/Rendon combine for ~105mil per year in about 2 years (or even maybe next year if Ohtani replicates his 2021 season and makes a record in arbitration), and that Syndergaard fetches a deal worth ~25-30mil AAV, then that's ~130-135mil for those 4 players.

If we sign Correa to a mega deal, then we likely are not re-signing Syndergaard or any pitcher to a high salary moving forward.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I wouldn't be happy if Arte spent on Correa because it'd be opportunity cost down the line.

I am hopeful that Syndergaard rebounds and that he decides to stay on a significant deal after the season.  I would like to see our core in the upcoming years as Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, and Syndergaard.  Assuming Ohtani/Trout/Rendon combine for ~105mil per year in about 2 years (or even maybe next year if Ohtani replicates his 2021 season and makes a record in arbitration), and that Syndergaard fetches a deal worth ~25-30mil AAV, then that's ~130-135mil for those 4 players.

If we sign Correa to a mega deal, then we likely are not re-signing Syndergaard or any pitcher to a high salary moving forward.

Not to mention Upton's contract is almost up, so we have to factor in how much its going to cost to resign him.

[ThisismineScios]

I think the thing about Correa is length, not amount. Rendon has been frustrating, but he is going to be a very good 3B for at least 2-3 more years minimum. There’s no reason he can’t be average for the 2-4 remaining years. Is it the smartest long-term strategy? No way. But you pay for the window and deal with the albatross later. I do not think Rendon will be an albatross at age 33-34-35. I think Correa at 10 years would be. I’d prefer to give Story (I know the flaws) a 6-year deal and completely juice our lineup for the next 3-4 years. That aligns with everyone’s prime, Adell, Marsh, Sandoval, Detmers, Suarez, Bachman and Walsh’s bargain years. We legitimately have a 3-4 year window to get this thing done. Frankly, wasting a year with a Wade/Rengifo platoon does more damage to our window than spending more $$$ for a quality SS. Also, spending $22-25 million a year on a likely solid mid-rotation guy (Gausman/Stroman) or a 1 year wonder (Ray) doesn’t move the needle as much either. Depth at SP, an elite bullpen, and a lineup without holes gets us there much more than adding one of those guys does.

[Angel Oracle]

20 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I wouldn't be happy if Arte spent on Correa because it'd be opportunity cost down the line.

I am hopeful that Syndergaard rebounds and that he decides to stay on a significant deal after the season.  I would like to see our core in the upcoming years as Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, and Syndergaard.  Assuming Ohtani/Trout/Rendon combine for ~105mil per year in about 2 years (or even maybe next year if Ohtani replicates his 2021 season and makes a record in arbitration), and that Syndergaard fetches a deal worth ~25-30mil AAV, then that's ~130-135mil for those 4 players.

If we sign Correa to a mega deal, then we likely are not re-signing Syndergaard or any pitcher to a high salary moving forward.

And probably not re-signing Ohtani.

How are they going to afford Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, AND Correa?

That’s about $130-$140 million a season for four players alone.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

And probably not re-signing Ohtani.

How are they going to afford Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, AND Correa?

That’s about $130-$140 million a season for four players alone.

The same way Steve Cohen did?

Besides, Ohtani is an advertising dream, especially internationally. No way they let him go unless he doesn't want to stay. 

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

And probably not re-signing Ohtani.

How are they going to afford Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, AND Correa?

That’s about $130-$140 million a season for four players alone.

It's not $130-$140million, but last year Trout, Pujols, Rendon, and Upton were $112m in '20. The same quartet was $116m in '21. 65% of payroll both years for four players.

Obviously there's still a big gap, and that was only two years, and there's certainly an argument that committing so much of payroll to four players is beyond dumb as it limits spending for other needs, but I do think it's fair to say there is some reason to believe that they could allocate a stupid amount of money to four players. 

Payroll has held around $180m. If he bumped it up to $205m, 65% of payroll would land in around $133m, or something arguably what Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, and Correa could cost. 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

The same way Steve Cohen did?

Besides, Ohtani is an advertising dream, especially internationally. No way they let him go unless he doesn't want to stay. 

 

Maybe, but Cohen might be in a better position to go all in and blow any budget.

[totdprods]

Angels were around $175m-$180m in 2021, pro-rated in 2020, 2019, and going back to 2018.
It was around $160m and $150m between 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2014.
Down to $130m in 2013 from $150m in 2012, $140m in 2011.

Don't think it's totally unreasonable payroll could see a bump up to near $200m given how it's gradually increased the last eight years.
Actually seems kind of due to jump up $20m or so, seems it does that every three or four seasons.

Edited December 7, 2021 by totdprods

[Docwaukee]

first off, Cohen has the ability to depreciate salaries in he first 6 years of buying the team which Arte doesn't have anymore and second, it's dumb to look at someone's net worth and assume that indicates in any way, shape or form that they would take any part of that and chuck it down the drain.  Or in other words, they're likely billionaires because they have a pattern of not willingly pissing away millions if they can get away with it or even making money off their investments.  

[rottiesworld]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

first off, Cohen has the ability to depreciate salaries in he first 6 years of buying the team which Arte doesn't have anymore and second, it's dumb to look at someone's net worth and assume that indicates in any way, shape or form that they would take any part of that and chuck it down the drain.  Or in other words, they're likely billionaires because they have a pattern of not willingly pissing away millions if they can get away with it or even making money off their investments.  

I wouldn’t mind signing Carlos Correa but not for 10 years which Arte should have learned with the Albert contract for 10 years. If Carlos Correa would go for 4 or 5 years which I know he won’t then I would sign him but not for 10 years.

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

 

Maybe, but Cohen might be in a better position to go all in and blow any budget.

Clearly Arte hasn't worked hard enough to be worth $16B. 

[Angel Oracle]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

first off, Cohen has the ability to depreciate salaries in he first 6 years of buying the team which Arte doesn't have anymore and second, it's dumb to look at someone's net worth and assume that indicates in any way, shape or form that they would take any part of that and chuck it down the drain.  Or in other words, they're likely billionaires because they have a pattern of not willingly pissing away millions if they can get away with it or even making money off their investments.  

This

It would be nice to test it though.

Steve Ballmer says to Cohen, hold my beer.

$51B

[Rico]

Steve Ballmer not having to deal with "max contracts" and "salary cap" limits would absolutely ruin baseball. 

I'm down for it.