Angels Off-season Predictions

[Tank]

On 10/11/2021 at 4:10 PM, True Grich said:

Wasn't sure where to post this... so I'll just post this here.

Listening to MLB network radio over the weekend, the AAA pitching coach from TB was on... he said something along the lines of "some pitchers sign here because they know we can make them better."

Wonder what that's like...

yep, 100%.

we need to be a team like that. the question is how do we get there?

[BTH]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Was referring to his numbers coming into this season.  As far as what went wrong.  His HR/9 also went up along with his BB/9 but both of those things would be a sign of peripherals predicting the opposite of success.  Still, nothing was as big of an impact as the defense. 

His walk right spiked but his K rate also rose from a career 7.9 K/9 entering this season to a career high of 12.3.  Upping your K rate by 4.4 K/9 tends to offset some of the rise in BB/9 and the predictive data supports that.  Add 4.4K/9 to Barria's projectable numbers and nobody would be talking about trading him.

The MLB average FIP was 4.27 -- the Angels team FIP was 4.25, Quintana came in at 4.31 .vs a 6.75 ERA.  The team ERA was 4.69.

People will continue to talk about the pitching..  But the defense is the biggest problem

I agree with you that the defense needs to improve, so I ask you: what do you think they need to do in order to fix it?

[stormngt]

14 hours ago, Trendon said:

NOT following the peripherals led the Angels to signing Teheran, which I said in the post you quoted.

Teheran had a good ERA and bad peripherals. They signed him and he fell apart.

The Stratton trade was based on Eppler coveting spin at the time, while Stratton was up there in spin rate leaders.

My point is Barria's peripherals scared the front office from giving him the starting spot in the rotation thst they went out and signed players they thought would perform better but didn't. 

Just look at Heaney.  Over the last four years Barria has performed better as a starter than Heaney.   But hey, let's have a pitcher who gives up more runs per game because his peripherals. 

As I said, metrics are very important but too many people are following it as Gospel. 

[Torridd]

On 10/10/2021 at 6:28 PM, Tank said:

this is also my yearly reminder to everyone that free agents won't come here just because we offer the most money or the most years. they have to want to play for the angels.

if they sign elsewhere, don't automatically blame it on the halos. there's a lot of reasons players sign somewhere besides anaheim, and it's not necessarily because the angels "failed" to sign them.

I agree, but I think Arte has to really go out. We may have to overpay some lower tier pitchers to make sure we get them. Let someone else pay a zillion for Scherzer.

[Second Base]

I honestly have no idea what they'll do. There's so much pitching out there in FA that they'll get someone, but it just feels like whatever they do, it'll backfire on them.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

I agree with you that the defense needs to improve, so I ask you: what do you think they need to do in order to fix it?

Just having their defensively alignments match up to the hitter's actual tendencies would be a glorious start.   They have shifted against the tendencies or failed to shift when the situation screamed move the defense over...   It was a very very weird thing to watch in real time.

It's impossible to call them out completely without seeing what their data is, but, when BIS, Baseball Savant and STATS Inc all show the same tendencies...  I have a hard time believing the Angels in house data would say -- "do the exact opposite".

This shit has been going on now for two years..  Well, 1 year and whatever last season was.

[BTH]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Just having their defensively alignments match up to the hitter's actual tendencies would be a glorious start.   They have shifted against the tendencies or failed to shift when the situation screamed move the defense over...   It was a very very weird thing to watch in real time.

It's impossible to call them out completely without seeing what their data is, but, when BIS, Baseball Savant and STATS Inc all show the same tendencies...  I have a hard time believing the Angels in house data would say -- "do the exact opposite".

Do you know if the Angels are doing anything to address this issue @Jeff Fletcher?

Or do you at least know who is in charge of the Angels defensive alignments?

Is it Maddon, the bench coach, the infield/outfield coaches, or the front office?

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Torridd said:

I agree, but I think Arte has to really go out. We may have to overpay some lower tier pitchers to make sure we get them. Let someone else pay a zillion for Scherzer.

i think if scherzer or verlander or whoever else really wants to come here, arte should open up the checkbook and ignore the luxury tax. i'm tired of them signing guys like cobb, teheran, etc.

[Inside Pitch]

58 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Do you know if the Angels are doing anything to address this issue @Jeff Fletcher?

Or do you at least know who is in charge of the Angels defensive alignments?

Is it Maddon, the bench coach, the infield/outfield coaches, or the front office?

Earlier in the year he said it was his guess it was probably the analytics dept..  I think he said recently he didn't believe they would answer if he asked certain questions -- not sure if the meant the defense specifically.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Earlier in the year he said it was his guess it was probably the analytics dept..  I think he said recently he didn't believe they would answer if he asked certain questions -- not sure if the meant the defense specifically.

If it's the analytics department, it seems like it should be an easier issue to get solved. It might be more complicated if you had to get Maddon to change his ways.

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Trendon said:

Do you know if the Angels are doing anything to address this issue @Jeff Fletcher?

Or do you at least know who is in charge of the Angels defensive alignments?

Is it Maddon, the bench coach, the infield/outfield coaches, or the front office?

I actually did talk to someone about this. The numbers guys in the front office pretty much decide where the defense is positioned, although the players and coaches can tweak it slightly based on what they’re seeing. 
 

I’m curious what guys are using to determine that they’re wrong.

[tdawg87]

I mean, their eyes.

[Docwaukee]

35 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I actually did talk to someone about this. The numbers guys in the front office pretty much decide where the defense is positioned, although the players and coaches can tweak it slightly based on what they’re seeing. 
 

I’m curious what guys are using to determine that they’re wrong.

a lot of us were using the statcast game feed.  @Inside Pitch and @Blarg.  Then it made us crankier than usual.  So we stopped. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

i think if scherzer or verlander or whoever else really wants to come here, arte should open up the checkbook and ignore the luxury tax. i'm tired of them signing guys like cobb, teheran, etc.

Personally im not big on either.... both are legends (especially verlander, ive seen his hacked phone pics), and both HOFrs that would be a huge boost for us. 

I just see both getting old real fast. Especially with us.

But I agree on the checkbook. We dont have the depth to trade, and we dont have in house options to put us over.

Ive defended the payroll the last few years, but its time. Im not saying they have to be like the dodgers, but adding 20 at this point I think is very doable.

I hadnt noticed until some recent article i read, but we were in the bottom 5 or so for last team to win a playoff game....... had no idea it was that bad.

[BTH]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I actually did talk to someone about this. The numbers guys in the front office pretty much decide where the defense is positioned, although the players and coaches can tweak it slightly based on what they’re seeing. 
 

I’m curious what guys are using to determine that they’re wrong.

@Inside Pitch can probably best speak to that.

 

Just on the surface, the Angels were 14th in wOBA against for shifts against RHH and 21st in wOBA against for shifts against LHH. That isn't great.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I actually did talk to someone about this. The numbers guys in the front office pretty much decide where the defense is positioned, although the players and coaches can tweak it slightly based on what they’re seeing. 
 

I’m curious what guys are using to determine that they’re wrong.

Baseball Info Solutions, Stats Perform (formerly StatsInc), Baseball Savant (Statscast), which is powered by MLB advanced media.

Normally, I'd watch the live Baseball Savant feed, see the weird then log in to the other two sites to see if their data was dramatically different....  Never was.

So, either the Angels info is very different or someone is ignoring data.  It's been a thing two years running.   Since we can't see the Angels info (and minus that it's impossible to know where to pin the blame), its all very frustrating and I don't recommend people doing it.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

@Inside Pitch can probably best speak to that.

 

Just on the surface, the Angels were 14th in wOBA against for shifts against RHH and 21st in wOBA against for shifts against LHH. That isn't great.

They shift more against RHH than most teams too.... 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Baseball Info Solutions, Stats Perform (formerly StatsInc), Baseball Savant (Statscast), which is powered by MLB advanced media.

Normally, I'd watch the live Baseball Savant feed, see the weird then log in to the other two sites to see if their data was dramatically different....  Never was.

So, either the Angels info is very different or someone is ignoring data.  It's been a thing two years running.

They’re basing their defense off what a hitter is likely to do against the pitcher he’s facing. It’s not just a blanket spray chart for every ball he hits. 
 

I am sure they are using way more data than you guys can see. 
 

I think there were some problems with their defense but it was mostly because guys who aren’t good defensive players were playing. And most of the run-prevention problems were the pitchers. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They’re basing their defense off what a hitter is likely to do against the pitcher he’s facing. It’s not just a blanket spray chart for every ball he hits. 
 

I am sure they are using way more data than you guys can see. 
 

I think there were some problems with their defense but it was mostly because guys who aren’t good defensive players were playing. And most of the run-prevention problems were the pitchers. 

Yes Jeff.... That's the exact data I'm talking about.  Stats Perform can break it down by pitcher and every possible matchup situation.

Not seeing the info they (Angels), use its impossible to know....

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yes Jeff.... That's the exact data I'm talking about.

You don’t have all the data they have. 

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Jeff Fletcher said:

You don’t have all the data they have. 

Yes, I've only said that every time this conversation comes up.

Every single time.

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yes, I've only said that every time this conversation comes up.

Every single time.

 

Well then I guess I’m not questioning you but others in this thread who seem to be certain the Angels were doing something seriously wrong with their positioning.

I agree with you that there’s really no way for us to know. 

But I suspect it’s a pretty small piece of the puzzle. 
 

 

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Well then I guess I’m not questioning you but others in this thread who seem to be certain the Angels were doing something seriously wrong with their positioning.

I agree with you that there’s really no way for us to know. 

But I suspect it’s a pretty small piece of the puzzle. 
 

Like I always tell people.... It's not worth trying to dig or watch it live because it will frustrate the shit out of you.  Having/not having that data is pretty vital to determining where to place blame or if there is any real blame. 

Being someone that tries to validate what i think i'm seeing I've been guilty of it.  

[BTH]

49 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Well then I guess I’m not questioning you but others in this thread who seem to be certain the Angels were doing something seriously wrong with their positioning.

Earlier in this thread, @Inside Pitch said that "the defense is the biggest problem" and when I asked how he thought they should fix that, he said by "Just having their defensive alignments match up to the hitter's actual tendencies would be a glorious start."

So do you think the defensive positioning is an issue or not, @Inside Pitch ? 

Btw, by no means am I trying to call IP out or be combative, so please don't take it that way. I'm just trying to get a better understanding of whether defensive positioning is actually an issue for the Angels because Fletch doesn't believe so and you said it was earlier but then said we can't know because we don't have the full data like the team does.

[Inside Pitch]

24 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Earlier in this thread, @Inside Pitch said that "the defense is the biggest problem" and when I asked how he thought they should fix that, he said by "Just having their defensive alignments match up to the hitter's actual tendencies would be a glorious start."

So do you think the defensive positioning is an issue or not, @Inside Pitch ? 

Btw, by no means am I trying to call IP out or be combative, so please don't take it that way. I'm just trying to get a better understanding of whether defensive positioning is actually an issue for the Angels because Fletch doesn't believe so and you said it was earlier but then said we can't know because we don't have the full data like the team does.

I do. 

But I've always tempered it by saying we don't have their data in order to know where to place the blame.  I think that's a fairly simple premise.  Something has changed the last two years, the eye test pushed me towards the numbers, the numbers at three different sources (two of them pay sites), validate what my eyes have been leading me to believe..  There is a problem with the defensive alignments.

I've said before I wonder if whatever algorithm they are using may be wonky...  If its the algorithm, then we can't blame the on field people/coaching.  My saying we don't know where the blame lies doesn't mean I don't believe there is an issue.

Simmons was quoted as saying he tended to not to pay heed to the data.  I always found that interesting but I couldn't really make a case one way or another from that comment because that dude was a magician. 

Rather than obsess over what I think? Do you think its a player issue or a data issue?  When talking about guys like Rojas, I'd argue it could be both.  Then there's the question ...is the data spot on and someone is overriding it from the bench...  

You tell me.