Angels Off-season Predictions

[Junkballer]

13 minutes ago, Trendon said:

A quality backup will cost 4-5 million.

I'm not sure they're gonna be willing to commit that to a backup catcher, especially when they need to use their money for SP, RP, and a SS.

I don't disagree, but the Angels planning on acquiring a replacement level catcher to play 60+ games, and should Stassi get injured have that catcher become the #1 and Chad Wallach the #2, doesn't sound appealing.  At 30 years old Stassi still hasn't hit the 90 games caught threshold.  Notwithstanding the other positions the Angels need to strengthen or replace, catcher depth is one of them as well.  Although those other positions can be more easily evaluated by WAR, in my opinion the intangibles of the C position are not fully captured, even though pitch framing is incorporated.  The question is, what positions best absorb the inevitable injuries by going to through their depth chart with the least overall impact.

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

I don't disagree, but the Angels planning on acquiring a replacement level catcher to play 60+ games, and should Stassi get injured have that catcher become the #1 and Chad Wallach the #2, doesn't sound appealing.  At 30 years old Stassi still hasn't hit the 90 games caught threshold.  Notwithstanding the other positions the Angels need to strengthen or replace, catcher depth is one of them as well.  Although those other positions can be more easily evaluated by WAR, in my opinion the intangibles of the C position are not fully captured, even though pitch framing is incorporated.  The question is, what positions best absorb the inevitable injuries by going to through their depth chart with the least overall impact.

Plus, Stassi only hit .147/.244/.264 in his last 131 plate appearances, so that doesn't exactly inspire confidence that he really can be an offensive contributor over the course of a full season.  Gotta have someone who's at least decent as a backup.  I agree with you that Wallach isn't that guy.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

His peripherals tell a different story, though, as he has a 5.02 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 7.07 K/9, and 2.94 BB/9 in those same 55 starts. He doesn't get enough whiffs and doesn't limit walks.

So a guys performance over 55 starts is secondary to his projected performance?

This is what I do not get with advanced metric.  Often there are people who over perform their metrics.

[Tank]

i'm going into this off season with hope they'll successfully address their needs, especially pitching. i hope i can't wait to get to spring training.

[Tank]

this is also my yearly reminder to everyone that free agents won't come here just because we offer the most money or the most years. they have to want to play for the angels.

if they sign elsewhere, don't automatically blame it on the halos. there's a lot of reasons players sign somewhere besides anaheim, and it's not necessarily because the angels "failed" to sign them.

[ThisismineScios]

I have no idea what they will do, and I don't think any of us know. I do get a different type of feeling this year. There is finally a manager that [cannot manage a bullpen and] is willing to stand up to ownership. He was not calling out Perry; the discussion of aiming higher than Detmers in the rotation wasn't just about quality pitching. It was also about filling out the rotation with cheap options because Starters don't sell tickets. Save money on the rotation (i.e. figure it out, GM) so we can sign the big name lineup guys that play every day and you can put up on State College or Katella. Arte isn't (hopefully wasn't now) signing Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, or DeScalfini. I've been thinking a lot about their pitching moves. There is something interesting to note. Matt Harvey--big name. Jose Quintana--big name. These guys got the approval because they are names, and Arte loves names. The Cobb trade was one I think Perry/Joe teamed up on. Fowler also. But those 1-year deals are all Arte. No, you can't spend more than $30 million on a pitcher; but feel free to sign a guy in the $8-12 million range, so long as he has a big name and/or postseason reputation. 

I really do think this year, it's more than the fans that are mad at Arte. The statements by Maddon and Trout aren't nothing. I think most people think if it were up to Arte, he'd splurge on Baez or Story and sign 2-3 back end rotation guys. And definitely not spend on Iglesias. I think the message essentially was, "We can't spend big on position players. Be willing to spend for Iglesias. And put money into the rotation." Hope they do. As much as I'd love a lineup with Story or Seager, I'd rather go all out for pitching. I hope they re-sign Cobb and Iglesias, trade for a league average hitting SS with above average D, and fill out the staff.

[BTH]

5 hours ago, stormngt said:

So a guys performance over 55 starts is secondary to his projected performance?

This is what I do not get with advanced metric.  Often there are people who over perform their metrics.

His peripherals and projected performance are an important factor in determining what he's gonna be going forward. You can't dispute that he had a 4.03 ERA in those 55 starts, but you can dispute that the performance won't be the same going forward by looking at the peripheral stats beyond ERA.

Ignoring the peripherals is how you get into trouble- like the Angels did with Teheran. His numbers indicated that his performance should be worse than it was, the Angels signed him despite that, and it all came crashing down.

[BTH]

5 hours ago, Junkballer said:

I don't disagree, but the Angels planning on acquiring a replacement level catcher to play 60+ games, and should Stassi get injured have that catcher become the #1 and Chad Wallach the #2, doesn't sound appealing.  At 30 years old Stassi still hasn't hit the 90 games caught threshold.  Notwithstanding the other positions the Angels need to strengthen or replace, catcher depth is one of them as well.  Although those other positions can be more easily evaluated by WAR, in my opinion the intangibles of the C position are not fully captured, even though pitch framing is incorporated.  The question is, what positions best absorb the inevitable injuries by going to through their depth chart with the least overall impact.

Getting a quality backup should be important, but the Angels haven't expressed that it is.

They have, however, expressed that getting starters and relievers are important.

[Junkballer]

34 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Getting a quality backup should be important, but the Angels haven't expressed that it is.

They have, however, expressed that getting starters and relievers are important.

Sounds like you're predicting they will go cheap on a backup C, if so, i agree with you, but not with that gameplan.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

His peripherals and projected performance are an important factor in determining what he's gonna be going forward. You can't dispute that he had a 4.03 ERA in those 55 starts, but you can dispute that the performance won't be the same going forward by looking at the peripheral stats beyond ERA.

Ignoring the peripherals is how you get into trouble- like the Angels did with Teheran. His numbers indicated that his performance should be worse than it was, the Angels signed him despite that, and it all came crashing down.

I would say that in the past, your peripherals were much less predictive because there was less three true outcome baseball.  Now it's almost impossible to get away with 'pitching to contact' in lieu of striking guys out.  There have been a few guys to pull it off over the last few years but Barria is #1 in all of baseball for the last 5 years for differential between his FIP vs. his ERA.  Maybe there's a bit of skill there but it would surprise me big time if that were even close to sustainable.  

So I agree that his current results likely aren't going to hold up over the long term.  In fact, I think we've been somewhat lucky to get out of him what we have so far.  And with advanced metrics playing such a huge role in the evaluation process these days, my guess is that he probably doesn't have much value on the trade market.  Especially now that he's going to be out of options.  It wouldn't totally surprise me if he ends up a roster casualty before next year.  

One thing to consider is that he's not a total soft tosser.  His fastball is pretty average or below but his slider is probable avg and his change is good.  Not plus by any means but good.  Someone might look at his repertoire and think they can get more out of him than the halos have been getting.  

Even though I kinda like the guy I just don't see a role for him on the team next year.  

[Inside Pitch]

6 hours ago, Trendon said:

His peripherals and projected performance are an important factor in determining what he's gonna be going forward. You can't dispute that he had a 4.03 ERA in those 55 starts, but you can dispute that the performance won't be the same going forward by looking at the peripheral stats beyond ERA.

Ignoring the peripherals is how you get into trouble- like the Angels did with Teheran. His numbers indicated that his performance should be worse than it was, the Angels signed him despite that, and it all came crashing down.

I'm a huge peripherals>everything else believer.  I value predictive data above all else and typically want no part of guys who's real performance doesn't line up with what he should be doing... but while he has a history of doing that, he's pretty much pitched to his peripherals the last three years.  It's dead even 2019-21, it's off by .20 the last two.  Whether that's good enough is open for debate.. I dunno.

Rather than solely focus on what he isn't, Ive always tended to look at what he is, or rather....what has shown us. His track record of both inducing weak contact and allowing HRs leads me to believe some of his success might be due to the sporadic usage he's been given. It's possible guys haven't seem him enough to get his timing down and it's potentially helped mask some of his shortcomings.  The one thing I do feel confident in saying is that his success long term will hinge on his keeping the ball in the park. 

The other thing that makes him a difficult read for me is that his stuff has slowly been ticking up, his FB has moved up 2 MPH since his debut, his slider is up almost 4 MPH.  If you believe what the pitch values are saying, his FB is no longer death to him and his change has become a slightly plus pitch. So while doesn't have the stuff to get himself out of trouble, he has improved, and hes young enough to believe he might yet improve. The downside is that when they do square him up he gets torched and when he's going good he remains dependent on the defense more than anyone should be happy with given our defensive issues. 

Push comes to shove...he's the guy I'd be most comfortable giving up in a trade and while that might not be a ringing endorsement, he might just be the perfect guy to have in the 6th spot of the rotation. Someone who is serviceable, if not truly someone you'd like to see starting an important game. 

 

[BTH]

13 hours ago, Junkballer said:

Sounds like you're predicting they will go cheap on a backup C, if so, i agree with you, but not with that gameplan.

Correct.

I don't like going cheap on a backup C, but that's what I am expecting.

[BTH]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

One thing to consider is that he's not a total soft tosser.  His fastball is pretty average or below but his slider is probable avg and his change is good.  Not plus by any means but good.  Someone might look at his repertoire and think they can get more out of him than the halos have been getting.  

Even though I kinda like the guy I just don't see a role for him on the team next year.  

He may actually be a decent reliever if his stuff plays up in the pen, especially since he's primarily a 2-pitch pitcher. Just might not be with the Angels.

[BTH]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Push comes to shove...he's the guy I'd be most comfortable giving up in a trade and while that might not be a ringing endorsement, he might just be the perfect guy to have in the 6th spot of the rotation. Someone who is serviceable, if not truly someone you'd like to see starting an important game. 

With him being out of options this upcoming year, he loses a lot of his value to the Angels. Now, they'd have to commit a roster spot to him in order to keep him. Which is why, if he has value, it's probably best to trade him.

[angelsnationtalk]

On 10/8/2021 at 9:31 PM, Dtwncbad said:

I think I am detecting something different.  The media is calling out the Angels in a way they have not before.  The manager is calling out the front office to get the pitching they need.

You know, this is what happens to the elite franchises.  They experience a level of being accountable that other teams just don’t experience.

Maybe the fans need to ask themselves if they have been too permissive and polite in accepting mediocrity.  I certainly don’t want the Angel fans to be obnoxious aholes like the Red Sox fans but maybe it is better to be a bit more demanding.

Get. It. Done.         No. Effing. Excuses.

This team has most of what it needs outside of high level starting pitching.  I know the bullpen needs help but if you populate two starting pitching spots with high quality arms to slot in front of Ohtani, then the organization has quite a few arms that could help in the pen.

Bottom line is I don’t care if it is through free agency or by trade, this front office absolutely must land two starters that are clearly high end, guys that you would be thrilled to hand the ball to in postseason games.

It ain’t any more complicated than that.  Everybody knows it.

If this exact roster was in New York in pinstripes, the media and the fans would demand they just get it done, and heads would roll if they don’t.

So maybe it’s time, if the Angels want to be the premium top tier franchise, for the front office to openly accept the non-negotiable obligation to acquire what the team obviously needs with the consequences of failing to do so being you get absolutely lambasted and roasted in the media and by the fans. . . and fired.

Love this post. 
I feel the same way but the problem is we’ve heard the media year after year call the Angels out. Is it different with the players and manager saying something? Hopefully.

the main issue is with Arte. Nabbing 2 front line pitchers automatically puts the Angels in a dangerously good spot. Especially when your lineup (when healthy) is good.
 

you’re right,  by adding 2 front line guys you can move guys like Suarez, Barria and Rodriguez, Bachman to the pen. 
 

The main issue sits with Arte. The only way to get 2 front line starter is to open up the pocketbooks. That’s what worries the hell out of me with Arte is is balks when it comes to dishing out the cash for pitchers. I thought it was a GM thing, but it’s an Arte thing. We’ve seen our last 3 GMs all do the same thing when it comes to pitching. 

[Hubs]

Stassi is the starter and he doesn't even make $5M.

A backup will make around what Suzuki got this year or less. I am fine with Thaiss as the backup if he really can do it and even throwing Ward back there once in a while. These guys caught most of their life, so if they can do it defensively incl. framing, then they can be a backup for 60 games.

If they need to bring in a Briceño or a Bemboom or someone after two months with Thaiss as the backup then they can. Not an area of concern.

[T.G.]

Wasn't sure where to post this... so I'll just post this here.

Listening to MLB network radio over the weekend, the AAA pitching coach from TB was on... he said something along the lines of "some pitchers sign here because they know we can make them better."

Wonder what that's like...

[stormngt]

On 10/10/2021 at 8:06 PM, Trendon said:

His peripherals and projected performance are an important factor in determining what he's gonna be going forward. You can't dispute that he had a 4.03 ERA in those 55 starts, but you can dispute that the performance won't be the same going forward by looking at the peripheral stats beyond ERA.

Ignoring the peripherals is how you get into trouble- like the Angels did with Teheran. His numbers indicated that his performance should be worse than it was, the Angels signed him despite that, and it all came crashing down.

The peripherals are no guarantee that he will pitch worse in the future. The peripherals just say what he should have pitched like.   It is basically a predictions.   That's the problem I have with people who follow like Gospel.

Peripherals has its values but its foolish follow it religiously.

Following peripherals led the Anfels to sign Harvey, trade for Stratton, and sign Tehran the last four years.  We ended up having worse performances than Barria because of the peripherals. 

[BTH]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

The peripherals are no guarantee that he will pitch worse in the future. The peripherals just say what he should have pitched like.   It is basically a predictions.   That's the problem I have with people who follow like Gospel.

Peripherals has its values but its foolish follow it religiously.

Following peripherals led the Anfels to sign Harvey, trade for Stratton, and sign Tehran the last four years.  We ended up having worse performances than Barria because of the peripherals. 

NOT following the peripherals led the Angels to signing Teheran, which I said in the post you quoted.

Teheran had a good ERA and bad peripherals. They signed him and he fell apart.

The Stratton trade was based on Eppler coveting spin at the time, while Stratton was up there in spin rate leaders.

[Inside Pitch]

8 hours ago, Trendon said:

NOT following the peripherals led the Angels to signing Teheran, which I said in the post you quoted.

Yeah, this was covered pretty heavily at the time and again when Quintana was signed.   Quintana is the example he should be using in this case.  Quintana is also the case study of why it's all going to be pointless unless they fix the defense.

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yeah, this was covered pretty heavily at the time and again when Quintana was signed.   Quintana is the example he should be using in this case.  Quintana is also the case study of why it's all going to be pointless unless they fix the defense.

It was defense and he lost control/command for whatever reason. All the defense in the world doesn’t solve a walk rate of 5 per 9.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

It was defense and he lost control/command for whatever reason. All the defense in the world doesn’t solve a walk rate of 5 per 9.  

Was referring to his numbers coming into this season.  As far as what went wrong.  His HR/9 also went up along with his BB/9 but both of those things would be a sign of peripherals predicting the opposite of success.  Still, nothing was as big of an impact as the defense. 

His walk right spiked but his K rate also rose from a career 7.9 K/9 entering this season to a career high of 12.3.  Upping your K rate by 4.4 K/9 tends to offset some of the rise in BB/9 and the predictive data supports that.  Add 4.4K/9 to Barria's projectable numbers and nobody would be talking about trading him.

The MLB average FIP was 4.27 -- the Angels team FIP was 4.25, Quintana came in at 4.31 .vs a 6.75 ERA.  The team ERA was 4.69.

People will continue to talk about the pitching..  But the defense is the biggest problem

[angelsnationtalk]

27 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Was referring to his numbers coming into this season.  As far as what went wrong.  His HR/9 also went up along with his BB/9 but both of those things would be a sign of peripherals predicting the opposite of success.  Still, nothing was as big of an impact as the defense. 

His walk right spiked but his K rate also rose from a career 7.9 K/9 entering this season to a career high of 12.3.  Upping your K rate by 4.4 K/9 tends to offset some of the rise in BB/9 and the predictive data supports that.  Add 4.4K/9 to Barria's projectable numbers and nobody would be talking about trading him.

The MLB average FIP was 4.27 -- the Angels team FIP was 4.25, Quintana came in at 4.31 .vs a 6.75 ERA.  The team ERA was 4.69.

People will continue to talk about the pitching..  But the defense is the biggest problem

Not only do the Angels need at least 1 frontline guy, but it leaves positions like Shortstop and guys like Gosselin up in the air. 

The Angels could use 1-2 new "aces", but they'll still need to find a defensively sound person at shortstop and back-up catcher. And don't forget about the bullpen.

Lots of work needs to be done for the Angels to be a playoff team, but they need to be creative to accomplish most of their needs.

[Blarg]

What is the interest in Gosselin?  He is not that good of a player.  In fact he is going to be a 33 year old utility player.  You must have bought into the silly Goose is Loose catch phrase and think he is somehow irreplaceable.  

[angelsnationtalk]

16 minutes ago, Blarg said:

What is the interest in Gosselin?  He is not that good of a player.  In fact he is going to be a 33 year old utility player.  You must have bought into the silly Goose is Loose catch phrase and think he is somehow irreplaceable.  

What I mean by leaving shortstop and guys like Gosselin up in the air is their vacancy of defense. 

Gosselin is a terrible defender.