Gameday Thread: Mariners @ Angels (7/17/21): Cobb on the mound, Ward back in RF

[Angels Fan Forever]

Salaries

Year	Age	Tm	Salary	SrvTm	Sources	Notes/Other Sources
Career to date (may be incomplete)			$2,561,500	Does not include future salaries ($22.5M)
2019	25	Los Angeles Angels	$561,500	0.111	contract
2021	27	Los Angeles Angels	$2,000,000	2.111
2022	28	Los Angeles Angels	$4,000,000
2023	29	Los Angeles Angels	$6,000,000
2024	30	Los Angeles Angels	$6,000,000
2025	31	Los Angeles Angels	$6,500,000
2026	32	Los Angeles Angels	*$8,000,000		$8M Team Option, $1.5M Buyout
2027	33	Los Angeles Angels	*$8,500,000		$8.5M Team Option, $1.5M Buyout
		Earliest Free Agent: 2026

This is the best deal in baseball. And I totally get why Fletcher signed it but what a great signing for the Angels! 

[Tank]

31 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

I do not like Haniger, not a bit.

I do not like him, he pitches like sh*t.

I do not like green eggs and ham

I do not like them, Sam I am.

[Bronson]

16 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

Salaries

Year	Age	Tm	Salary	SrvTm	Sources	Notes/Other Sources
Career to date (may be incomplete)			$2,561,500	Does not include future salaries ($22.5M)
2019	25	Los Angeles Angels	$561,500	0.111	contract
2021	27	Los Angeles Angels	$2,000,000	2.111
2022	28	Los Angeles Angels	$4,000,000
2023	29	Los Angeles Angels	$6,000,000
2024	30	Los Angeles Angels	$6,000,000
2025	31	Los Angeles Angels	$6,500,000
2026	32	Los Angeles Angels	*$8,000,000		$8M Team Option, $1.5M Buyout
2027	33	Los Angeles Angels	*$8,500,000		$8.5M Team Option, $1.5M Buyout
		Earliest Free Agent: 2026

This is the best deal in baseball. And I totally get why Fletcher signed it but what a great signing for the Angels! 

It’s an absolute bonkers deal. 

[aznhockeyguy]

1 hour ago, Bronson said:

It’s an absolute bonkers deal. 

I said it when this was announced, but I have no idea why Fletcher signed this deal. I can't fault a person for saying no to guaranteed money, but if he waited until after this season, he could've potentially doubled the value of his contract. 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, aznhockeyguy said:

I said it when this was announced, but I have no idea why Fletcher signed this deal. I can't fault a person for saying no to guaranteed money, but if he waited until after this season, he could've potentially doubled the value of his contract. 

Not really.  As good as he is he’s still an average to slightly above average offensive player with little pop and a great glove.  He wasn’t going to be a free agent until 30 years old.  I’ve said this a bunch of times but wait till Walsh signs his 5 year deal in the next year or so.  People will be blown away when he gets only $30-40 million for those 5 years. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, aznhockeyguy said:

I said it when this was announced, but I have no idea why Fletcher signed this deal. I can't fault a person for saying no to guaranteed money, but if he waited until after this season, he could've potentially doubled the value of his contract. 

You gotta look at who he is as a player and how he came up. If you would’ve told Fletcher 4 years ago that he’d get a $25 million guaranteed deal he would’ve laughed at you. Hell, if we gave him a 7 year $10 million deal two years ago he would have signed it immediately. A steal for the team for sure, but guys like him don’t often make it and get this kind of money.

[aznhockeyguy]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Not really.  As good as he is he’s still an average to slightly above average offensive player with little pop and a great glove.  He wasn’t going to be a free agent until 30 years old.  I’ve said this a bunch of times but wait till Walsh signs his 5 year deal in the next year or so.  People will be blown away when he gets only $30-40 million for those 5 years. 

He's not a rockstar hitter (OPS+ 97) or fielder (above average but not elite).  He's basically a 55 grade player in all aspects of his play with the exception of his contact tool which is probably like a 70+ but many GM's don't value average/contact very highly.  The only close comparable I can find in terms of production and service time signing is Rougned Odor.  He got 6 years / 49.5 mil +1 team option for 1/13 after his 3rd season at age 22 with an OPS+105 and 2.7 WAR.  The Rangers were betting on him to improve due to his age, while Fletcher signed at 26 after his "2nd" season, the pandemic shortened season where he hit 117 OPS+ and 1.4 WAR  for 5/$26 mil with 2 team options for an additional 2/16.5 and the Angels thought he won't improve too much afterwards, which is why I was shocked Fletcher signed for as cheap as he did.  I would think with arbitration he would easily get close to those figures he signed for in the extension and then in free agency at age 30 get something like 3-5 years at 10-14 mil depending on who else is a FA and how well he did.  Maybe the pandemic scared him to get the money now. 

I agree with you on Walsh, depends on when he signs in terms of how far away from free agency he is.  For bat only first baseman, you have to be Trout-esque with the bat to get paid.  Walsh is a good bat (130 OPS+) and below average defensively at first.  If the Angels approach Walsh after this season,  he'll be ~4 seasons away from FA, I can definitely see a 6/45-50 type deal with team options.  He's also like Fletch, late bloomer, no draft/high prospect pedigree.  I wouldn't be surprised if he signs like Fletcher.

 

11 minutes ago, Don said:

You gotta look at who he is as a player and how he came up. If you would’ve told Fletcher 4 years ago that he’d get a $25 million guaranteed deal he would’ve laughed at you. Hell, if we gave him a 7 year $10 million deal two years ago he would have signed it immediately. A steal for the team for sure, but guys like him don’t often make it and get this kind of money.

Yea for sure, I don't blame him for taking the money, it is life changing money.  At the same time, I would've liked for him to bet on himself.  He's never been seriously injured.  He does a lot of things well with the exception of drawing walks and he's versatile.  His 2019 season where he hit .290, he was worth 3.6 WAR.  As long he kept hitting something reasonable the next few seasons like say .280 or something, he would've been able to get 3-5 years at 10-14 mil depending on who else is a FA if he hit free agency at 30.  Obviously, we'll never know now but he sold him self short. With the season he's having right now, it cost him some significant coin on an extension had he waited until after this season.

[Don]

@aznhockeyguyIf I were Fletcher’s agent, sibling, parent, or friend I would have been BEGGING him to take the deal he got. Betting on himself for a bigger deal probably wouldn’t have resulted in a massively larger deal, and would have been entirely dependent on continued good play and health. If a guy like Fletcher had a serious injury at this stage in his career without that larger deal he’d be fighting for a roster spot out of ST and maybe $1 mill/year for the rest of his career. This is the rare instance where it was both a great deal for the team and the player.

[Stradling]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohtani gets today off then only pitches tomorrow. 

[aznhockeyguy]

10 hours ago, Don said:

@aznhockeyguyIf I were Fletcher’s agent, sibling, parent, or friend I would have been BEGGING him to take the deal he got. Betting on himself for a bigger deal probably wouldn’t have resulted in a massively larger deal, and would have been entirely dependent on continued good play and health. If a guy like Fletcher had a serious injury at this stage in his career without that larger deal he’d be fighting for a roster spot out of ST and maybe $1 mill/year for the rest of his career. This is the rare instance where it was both a great deal for the team and the player.

Depends on your definition of massive, but I think Fletcher got around ~50-60% of what he would've made if he hit free agency, if he maintained his production.  As I said in my earlier posts, can't blame him for taking the money.  He's now financially secure and looks like he's penciled in at 2B for the next 5 seasons+.  I'm just arguing if he waited until after this season to sign, he potentially would've gotten double what he signed for.  And while injury is always a concern, he can easily get an insurance policy from Lloyd's or some other reputable agency to protect himself financially at least. 

[failos]

Niiiiiice

 

edit: wrong thread

Edited July 18, 2021 by failos

[Don]

10 hours ago, aznhockeyguy said:

Depends on your definition of massive, but I think Fletcher got around ~50-60% of what he would've made if he hit free agency, if he maintained his production.  As I said in my earlier posts, can't blame him for taking the money.  He's now financially secure and looks like he's penciled in at 2B for the next 5 seasons+.  I'm just arguing if he waited until after this season to sign, he potentially would've gotten double what he signed for.  And while injury is always a concern, he can easily get an insurance policy from Lloyd's or some other reputable agency to protect himself financially at least. 

I get your opinion there, but I respectfully disagree a bit. It’s not like he would’ve been a free agent soon, so his market really isn’t open to him for a few more years. So yeah, maybe he gets to his arb years and gets (just estimating) $7-8 per year. Still some significant risk in terms of getting there healthy/successfully. Then maybe he gets to free agency still at a peak level of performance for him. And MAYBE at that point he gets $8-ish per year, but I doubt anybody would be giving him more than 3-4 years. So in my opinion, absolute best case scenario is that he would’ve got about $48 for the next 6-7 years of his career. That’s barring injuries or performance decline. Taking $25 for the next five years guaranteed isn’t a bad move at all given who he is and the fickle nature of a baseball career.

[aznhockeyguy]

23 hours ago, Don said:

I get your opinion there, but I respectfully disagree a bit. It’s not like he would’ve been a free agent soon, so his market really isn’t open to him for a few more years. So yeah, maybe he gets to his arb years and gets (just estimating) $7-8 per year. Still some significant risk in terms of getting there healthy/successfully. Then maybe he gets to free agency still at a peak level of performance for him. And MAYBE at that point he gets $8-ish per year, but I doubt anybody would be giving him more than 3-4 years. So in my opinion, absolute best case scenario is that he would’ve got about $48 for the next 6-7 years of his career. That’s barring injuries or performance decline. Taking $25 for the next five years guaranteed isn’t a bad move at all given who he is and the fickle nature of a baseball career.

I agree with your assumptions as well.  A lot can change before he hits free agency and batting average isn't worth what it used to, so I may be overselling his hypothetical FA salary.

[Don]

Just now, aznhockeyguy said:

I agree with your assumptions as well.  A lot can change before he hits free agency and batting average isn't worth what it used to, so I may be overselling his hypothetical FA salary.

Yeah, the market is freaking weird for the contact guys like him. It’s one of the reasons so many guys focus on launch angle/exit velo the last few years. It gets you paid. Guys that just make contact/hit for average and play good D are always one bad year/injury from being unemployable.