USA Today's panel projects 82-80 record, 3rd place for Angels

[Pancake Bear]

7 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Good to know you're finally admitting your error. Was getting worried for awhile. Happy trails, JP.

[failos]

U guys are assholes

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Blarg: "It's a pretty safe assumption the Angels finish 3rd. They have sucked bilge water the last four years straight. Both the A's and Astros have been wrestling for the division lead in that time and looks like they are not suffering much roster loss from 2020. The Mariners and Rangers are going to suck hard so that leaves the Angels in third place."

You, quoting the above: "Pretty much how I feel, as well."

So you say it has no predictive value, yet you agree with the assessment of it that the Angels will finish third in the West while ignoring the actual predictive data that suggests the most likely result based on the value of each roster is that the Angels will finish second in the division and be a playoff team. 

I'm just responding to what you said, but sure, I'm a troll. 

 

 

He was agreeing with some of the points I made. You have not understood context anywhere along this thread. 

[Pancake Bear]

40 minutes ago, Blarg said:

He was agreeing with some of the points I made. You have not understood context anywhere along this thread. 

That's rich coming from the guy who literally backpedaled in this thread already.

You said "It's a pretty safe assumption the Angels finish 3rd." And "Rating them higher than 3rd seems like wishful thinking."

I said, "Blarg said they're almost certainly going to finish third in the West" (which is a correct paraphrase of your post, btw - more accurate than the one you tried to sell in your response).

You replied, "Nope, I said it was reasonable to assume they will finish third".

"Reasonable to assume" is a much softer expression than "a pretty safe assumption" and any opinion otherwise "seems like wishful thinking". "Reasonable to assume" allows more wiggle room.

Also, you cite projections as agreeing with you while ignoring both ZIPS (at least, I assume that's what FG's projected 2021 standings/team records is based on) and PECOTA, both of which project the Angels to finish 2nd in the West and within the margin of error for WC (PECOTA is more bullish on their chances, projecting the Angels 4th overall, while FG puts them around 7th overall, 1 behind BOS and 2 back of CWS).

So, your analysis is inconsistent, incorrectly cited, and inaccurate.

JP responded to your first post which, in addition to the quotes I have above, argued that the Angels have sucked the past few years and concluded by saying all the places the Angels will need to outperform projections in order to finish better than third (wrong, btw, as noted above - what would be needed is performing consistent to the most likely range of outcomes rather than on the low end, which you bizarrely take as the most likely outcome).

JP said, "Pretty much agree", which you seem to think that if I read in context would mean he doesn't actually agree with your assessment of the Angels finishing in third, despite that being the repeated and dominant point of your post. Gosh, if only I hadn't lost my cereal box decoder ring prize, maybe I would've seen it.

But sure, tell me more about how I missed the context throughout the thread when I'm literally quoting your words to you.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

You said "It's a pretty safe assumption the Angels finish 3rd." And "Rating them higher than 3rd seems like wishful thinking."

I never once said, "Rating them higher than 3rd seems like wishful thinking." This is exactly what I posted and I stand by it.

11 hours ago, Blarg said:

It's a pretty safe assumption the Angels finish 3rd. They have sucked bilge water the last four years straight. Both the A's and Astros have been wrestling for the division lead in that time and looks like they are not suffering much roster loss from 2020. The Mariners and Rangers are going to suck hard so that leaves the Angels in third place. 

Angels still need to prove they can pitch. They need a MLB caliber 1st baseman and right fielder to be a complete team. Rating them higher than 3rd seems like wishful thinking. 

If all rotation starters can produce league average results. 

If the bullpen is stable and can cover long relief as well as close out games. 

If Adell or Marsh is promoted mid season and produce. 

If 1st base has both defense and league average offense for the position. 

Then the Angels can be considered a threat to take the division. Right now all those are just if's. 

So keep going. You seem to want to prove something you can't and cite incorrectly what others said. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

I never once said, "Rating them higher than 3rd seems like wishful thinking." This is exactly what I posted and I stand by it.

So keep going. You seem to want to prove something you can't and cite incorrectly what others said. 

You seriously can't see your own quote? Second paragraph, final sentence. You literally quoted it right after saying you didn't say it. Geez...

[Jay]

14 hours ago, Lou said:

Were going to the playoffs.

Who's "we"?

 

[floplag]

I think its worth nothing that FanGraphs has dropped us, likely do to signings around us, down to a projected 83 wins as of this link:
MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball

Astros at 88.5
Angels 83.5
A's 81.8

This also puts us at somewhere around 7th in the AL behind the Yankees, Twins, Astros, White Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox and barely ahead of the A;s and Rays. 

[T.G.]

I just talked to Joe and he said the team is going to still play out the season. I then called Perry and he said the same thing. I then called Arte and he thought I was making a sales call and told me to get lost and handed the phone over to Carp.  Carp said something in Italian and this morning a fish wrapped in a newspaper was on my porch. I think that meant Mike Trout is a maybe.

[Jason]

18 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Pretty much how I feel, as well.  Watch out, though: that got me pegged as a Debbie Downer...

Apparently being a true and loyal fan means you can't be realistic 

[jsnpritchett]

18 minutes ago, floplag said:

I think its worth nothing that FanGraphs has dropped us, likely do to signings around us, down to a projected 83 wins as of this link:
MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball

Astros at 88.5
Angels 83.5
A's 81.8

This also puts us at somewhere around 7th in the AL behind the Yankees, Twins, Astros, White Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox and barely ahead of the A;s and Rays. 

I'm anxiously awaiting Pancake Bear's furious and confused rebuttal to this. 

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

Apparently being a true and loyal fan means you can't be realistic 

We have a committee who decides who is or isn't a true and loyal fan. Lou chairs the committee.  The rest of his just agree with his decision because we are all dumbasses.

[Jason]

16 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I think 3rd is fair. We're banking on a lot going right this year (again).

If Ohtani is healthy, thst makes things very interesting though

Seems like this never happens with the Angels though 

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

Seems like this never happens with the Angels though 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'm anxiously awaiting Pancake Bear's furious and confused rebuttal to this. 

It is what it is, i expect better but i have every year of late and been let down so until this team shows me it can in fact over achieve, im going to assume somewhere in the middle.
Were all entitled to our views, im not going to label anyone over it, the simple reality is that none of us knows, we will have to see how the season plays out.
These guys are top of the field in projections, no one is going to hammer at thier reputations, others have gotten better, we have not to the same degree.
It could all change today if we made a couple more signings, but i dont expect that either at this point.
In the last couple weeks our direct competition both in division and for wild card have improved more than we have, its really that simple. 

[Inside Pitch]

23 minutes ago, floplag said:

I think its worth nothing that FanGraphs has dropped us, likely do to signings around us, down to a projected 83 wins as of this link:
MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball

Partially.   The biggest drop actually came after they added Cobb and Fowler.  Neither projects well in their system so it views their additions as taking playing time away from better players..  as such, the projections dropped.

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Partially.   The biggest drop actually came after they added Cobb and Fowler.  Neither projects well in their system so it views their additions as taking playing time away from better players..  as such, the projections dropped.

True, thank you for adding that.

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Lol. There are few on this board that were probably still in diapers when this happened. Kind of ancient history now 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

True, thank you for adding that.

My biggest concern right now is that Maddon is going to be trying to put the band back together and play guys who should be riding the pine but he likes because they used to be good XX many years ago when they helped him win a WS.

The Cobb and Fowler additions dropped the win projection by two wins -- it was like adding Bauer in reverse.

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

My biggest concern right now is that Maddon is going to be trying to put the band back together and play guys who should be riding the pine but he likes because they used to be good XX many years ago when they helped him win a WS.

The Cobb and Fowler additions dropped the win projection by two wins -- it was like adding Bauer in reverse.

Well as said i think its a combination of them and others improving, but both are definitely factors. 
The A's jumped up after some recent singings a couple games ... others certainly better that we will fight for the WC.  The sum total of it all is that we dropped, deservedly.  Christ were behind the chowds now somehow, lol 
Its frustrating as it was all there... everything we needed, and weve gone backwards. 

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

My biggest concern right now is that Maddon is going to be trying to put the band back together and play guys who should be riding the pine but he likes because they used to be good XX many years ago when they helped him win a WS.

The Cobb and Fowler additions dropped the win projection by two wins -- it was like adding Bauer in reverse.

If fangraphs can see projections from players like this then why can't the front office?

Edited February 16, 2021 by Jason

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

If fangraphs can see projections from players like this then why can't the front office?

Honestly, if you read the comments, Minasian believes in Fowler's case that he has more in the tank and I guess he is banking on him to outperform the projections.  My guess is they think Cobb is a change of scenery guy.   Both moves were kind of puzzling to me but I dont have the data they do...

[floplag]

8 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Honestly, if you read the comments, Minasian believes in Fowler's case that he has more in the tank and I guess he is banking on him to outperform the projections.  My guess is they think Cobb is a change of scenery guy.   Both moves were kind of puzzling to me but I dont have the data they do...

Just an add to this, i think Maddon and the whole front office see Fowler and anyone else as stop gaps. 
They have openly said Adell needs a little more time, i think we all agree with this, but i cant imagine any scenario where if he is tearing it up they keep him down.
OR, and no one wants to hear this, they are dangling him for the front line SP we all want.

[Pancake Bear]

55 minutes ago, floplag said:

I think its worth nothing that FanGraphs has dropped us, likely do to signings around us, down to a projected 83 wins as of this link:
MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball

Astros at 88.5
Angels 83.5
A's 81.8

This also puts us at somewhere around 7th in the AL behind the Yankees, Twins, Astros, White Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox and barely ahead of the A;s and Rays. 

 

35 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'm anxiously awaiting Pancake Bear's furious and confused rebuttal to this. 

Um... I mean...

8 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Also, you cite projections as agreeing with you while ignoring both ZIPS (at least, I assume that's what FG's projected 2021 standings/team records is based on) and PECOTA, both of which project the Angels to finish 2nd in the West and within the margin of error for WC (PECOTA is more bullish on their chances, projecting the Angels 4th overall, while FG puts them around 7th overall, 1 behind BOS and 2 back of CWS).

I literally already referenced this, which you'd know if you read it. You also seem to have missed that it agrees with what I've been saying all along. You are full of it, wrong, can't admit either, and think all three are true of me (which, tbf, they often are).

[ten ocho recon scout]

33 minutes ago, Jason said:

Lol. There are few on this board that were probably still in diapers when this happened. Kind of ancient history now 

Thats not true, jerk!

(Takes a step back.... realizes pujols was basically a rookie that year.... knows pujols is high risk for covid due to age now..... remembers GA having gray hair last time I saw him on tv.... realizes we hadnt even been to Iraq yet... starts to cry.... drinks my ensure....)