USA Today's panel projects 82-80 record, 3rd place for Angels

[jsnpritchett]

There's not much info on how the (unnamed...) 6-person panel came up with these projections, but I'm assuming it's just based on their personal opinions, averaged out across the panel.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2021/02/15/mlb-predictions-win-totals-standings-2021/6742949002/

"AL West

George Springer is gone, Carlos Correa may be next, but a largely intact championship core augmented by steady young starters keeps the Astros atop the division…Unfortunately for the Athletics, their “win curve” has been roughly in lockstep with Houston’s over the years; losing Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks and other bullpen pieces likely leave them scampering for a wild card … If veterans Dylan Bundy, Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb all pitch to their ceilings, the Angels could be a factor. At the least, this should be among their more watchable teams in recent years. … Bolder moves on the pitching market might have made the Mariners relevant; a young everyday core that saw Kyle Lewis and Dylan Moore emerge may add uber-talented outfielder Jarred Kelenic. … The Rangers were granted another year to create an appealing product before paying customers entered their new stadium. Other than Joey Gallo’s home-run swing, there’s still not much to see here."

Edited February 15, 2021 by jsnpritchett

[tdawg87]

Oakland winning 86 games.

Ok.

[Angel Oracle]

If two teams tie for the 2nd WC, as predicted for the AL, I assume they would have a one game playoff, and then the winner advancing to the one game AL WC battle?

[UndertheHalo]

Seems as likely as some of the more optimistic projections. 

[Jay]

At least they show the Angels with a winning record.

[bruin5]

USA Today wrote 6 long paragraphs (one for each division)?  Not sure they wrote that much on the first day of Desert Storm.....

[Justin]

105 wins for the Dodgers. My God. If this is an aggregate, was there one writer who said “I’m pretty bearish on the Dodgers, I think they only eke out 100 wins this season”?

[failos]

Another mediocre year...on paper at least

[Pancake Bear]

12 minutes ago, failos said:

Another mediocre year...on paper at least

Yeah, on the USA Today paper...which means about as much as your opinion. 

This isn't even a project system. It's a bunch of yahoo's who are speculating. Why is this news?

[ten ocho recon scout]

57 minutes ago, bruin5 said:

USA Today wrote 6 long paragraphs (one for each division)?  Not sure they wrote that much on the first day of Desert Storm.....

Easier to right about turds than kurds.

[Second Base]

With only a surface level knowledge of the team, I can completely understand why they think the Angels are an 82-80 team. USA Today aren't exactly experts. 

If they knew how strong the Angels finished last season, that the front three starters weren't actually the problem as much as the back three, which has been solved, and that the Angels blew the most saves in the AL and still only narrowly missed the playoffs, and that the bullpen has been remade, quietly.....well then I suppose they'd be whistling a different tune.

And even then, not really understanding just how much the A's have lost too. 

[Chuck]

[jsnpritchett]

19 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Sorry that my post doesn't meet your very high standards.

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Oakland winning 86 games.

Ok.

Bullpen strong with Petit

[jsnpritchett]

24 minutes ago, Second Base said:

With only a surface level knowledge of the team, I can completely understand why they think the Angels are an 82-80 team. USA Today aren't exactly experts. 

If they knew how strong the Angels finished last season, that the front three starters weren't actually the problem as much as the back three, which has been solved, and that the Angels blew the most saves in the AL and still only narrowly missed the playoffs, and that the bullpen has been remade, quietly.....well then I suppose they'd be whistling a different tune.

And even then, not really understanding just how much the A's have lost too. 

I love the fact that you seem to think you know more about the Angels AND every other team than most baseball writers.  Your continued insistence that other people just don't understand how good the Angels minor league system is, how valuable prospects are, how solid the moves made by Minasian are, how high they should be ranked vs other teams, etc. is the biggest bunch of hypocritical b.s. on this message board.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Seems as likely as some of the more optimistic projections. 

Except the optimistic projections are based on actual data and aren't projecting guys like Bundy, Quintana and Cobb to "pitch to their ceilings".   This prediction seems 100% about feelings.

[Blarg]

It's a pretty safe assumption the Angels finish 3rd. They have sucked bilge water the last four years straight. Both the A's and Astros have been wrestling for the division lead in that time and looks like they are not suffering much roster loss from 2020. The Mariners and Rangers are going to suck hard so that leaves the Angels in third place. 

Angels still need to prove they can pitch. They need a MLB caliber 1st baseman and right fielder to be a complete team. Rating them higher than 3rd seems like wishful thinking. 

If all rotation starters can produce league average results. 

If the bullpen is stable and can cover long relief as well as close out games. 

If Adell or Marsh is promoted mid season and produce. 

If 1st base has both defense and league average offense for the position. 

Then the Angels can be considered a threat to take the division. Right now all those are just if's. 

[jsnpritchett]

26 minutes ago, Blarg said:

It's a pretty safe assumption the Angels finish 3rd. They have sucked bilge water the last four years straight. Both the A's and Astros have been wrestling for the division lead in that time and looks like they are not suffering much roster loss from 2020. The Mariners and Rangers are going to suck hard so that leaves the Angels in third place. 

Angels still need to prove they can pitch. They need a MLB caliber 1st baseman and right fielder to be a complete team. Rating them higher than 3rd seems like wishful thinking. 

If all rotation starters can produce league average results. 

If the bullpen is stable and can cover long relief as well as close out games. 

If Adell or Marsh is promoted mid season and produce. 

If 1st base has both defense and league average offense for the position. 

Then the Angels can be considered a threat to take the division. Right now all those are just if's. 

Pretty much how I feel, as well.  Watch out, though: that got me pegged as a Debbie Downer...

[Pancake Bear]

25 minutes ago, Blarg said:

It's a pretty safe assumption the Angels finish 3rd. They have sucked bilge water the last four years straight. Both the A's and Astros have been wrestling for the division lead in that time and looks like they are not suffering much roster loss from 2020. The Mariners and Rangers are going to suck hard so that leaves the Angels in third place. 

Angels still need to prove they can pitch. They need a MLB caliber 1st baseman and right fielder to be a complete team. Rating them higher than 3rd seems like wishful thinking. 

If all rotation starters can produce league average results. 

If the bullpen is stable and can cover long relief as well as close out games. 

If Adell or Marsh is promoted mid season and produce. 

If 1st base has both defense and league average offense for the position. 

Then the Angels can be considered a threat to take the division. Right now all those are just if's. 

Found one of the USA Today guys. 

Here's some actual data to go along with your feelings: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Pretty much how I feel, as well.  Watch out, though: that got me pegged as a Debbie Downer...

You are a Debbie Downer. People selling pessimism and marketing it as realism are either deluded or dishonest.

Are the Angels a playoff team? In the range of probable outcomes, they're on the fence and it could go either way. That said, the West is a weak division, the Astros are being overrated due to projections looking at their cheating seasons, and the Angels have more depth than past years which raises their floor when things go wrong - which is where we've struggled in the past: Not having enough depth to deal with worst case scenarios. Now we do. 

Are the Angels good enough to contend? They aren't one of the very best teams on paper, but they've got a solid shot at the playoffs and could get lucky. But if you're looking for a rebuild, wrong place to look since they won't be bad enough for great picks this year. Worst will be mediocre. 

[Lou]

Were going to the playoffs.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

You are a Debbie Downer. People selling pessimism and marketing it as realism are either deluded or dishonest.

Are the Angels a playoff team? In the range of probable outcomes, they're on the fence and it could go either way. That said, the West is a weak division, the Astros are being overrated due to projections looking at their cheating seasons, and the Angels have more depth than past years which raises their floor when things go wrong - which is where we've struggled in the past: Not having enough depth to deal with worst case scenarios. Now we do. 

Are the Angels good enough to contend? They aren't one of the very best teams on paper, but they've got a solid shot at the playoffs and could get lucky. But if you're looking for a rebuild, wrong place to look since they won't be bad enough for great picks this year. Worst will be mediocre. 

Lol. Wtf are you talking about.  Where have I said anything about a rebuild?

[Lou]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

Lol. Wtf are you talking about.  Where have I said anything about a rebuild?

Just now. 

[m0nkey]

Any word on how Bob Nightengale feels about the Angels 2021 season?

[AngelStew43]

I'll say 90-72, and in the playoffs.