AngelsWin.com Today: 2021 Angelswin.com Primer Series: Starting Rotation

[AngelsWin.com]

A healthy Shohei Ohtani is a difference-maker on both sides of the ball

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Note: What can I do here, everyone? Hope for Education is a small, targeted charity with a very specific fundraising goal and they are only a short way off from it. Again, I know some of you might be strapped for cash out there, I get it. But I am not asking for much, $5 is skipping a morning Starbucks run. Even $1, is one item less off the value deal menu at your favorite fast food joint. These kids deserve the opportunity to learn safely in this pandemic environment, so once again I am humbly requesting ANY donation you can afford to make. Thank you for your time and attention! - Robert

Hitting leadoff for the 2021 Primer Series, the rotation is clearly the biggest concern facing the Halos front office heading into the off-season.

The Angels, on paper, will pencil in Andrew Heaney and Dylan Bundy, both in their last year of arbitration control, along with Shohei Ohtani, who is, unfortunately, a bit of a wild card health-wise, making his reliability unpredictable, as the initial base of their rotation. We will call this trio “2 and a half men”, for now.

Beyond those names, the Angels do have a selection of younger pitchers, on the 40-man roster, to choose from, including Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, Hector Yan, and Chris Rodriguez. Behind them are additional swingmen, such as Dillon Peters and Felix Pena that can act as spot starters, as well. The Angels also have another upside starter, not on their 40-man roster yet, Reid Detmers, the teams #1 draft pick in 2020, but he is almost certainly not ready for the Majors yet, but could be sooner rather than later.

If the Angels started the season with the current group of pitchers on the 40-man roster, the likely rotation depth would look something like this (number in parentheses represents the number of Minor League options remaining):

1. Shohei Ohtani (3)

2. Dylan Bundy (0)

3. Andrew Heaney (0)

4. Jaime Barria (0)

5. Jose Suarez (1)

6. Felix Pena (1)

7. Griffin Canning (3)

8. Patrick Sandoval (2)

9. Dillon Peters (0)

10. Chris Rodriguez (3)

11. Hector Yan (2)

As it stands, that depth is not too bad. Certainly it could be better, particularly at the top-of-the-rotation where Ohtani’s consistent and healthy ability to pitch is in doubt, but there is sufficient and, daresay, quality depth in the middle and back of the rotation for the Halos.

Additionally, the team only has Bundy, Heaney, Barria, and Peters, from this list, that must be on the 25-man roster due to their lack of options remaining. Assuming one of the first three is not traded they will almost certainly fill our #3-#5 rotation slots, while Peters will grab a spot in the bullpen, probably as a long reliever and spot starter.

If you add one high quality starter, like Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, or another top arm, the fabric of our starting five strengthens:

1. Top-of-the-rotation starter (Pick your poison)

2. Shohei Ohtani

3. Dylan Bundy

4. Andrew Heaney

5. Jaime Barria

This is the reason the Angels are likely targeting a top-of-the-rotation starter this off-season. It adds that missing impact arm that cannot only anchor the Halos starting five but will provide that third missing element for a playoff roster, as well. In addition, it pushes young and capable, but less experienced, starters like Jose Suarez, Griffin Canning, and Patrick Sandoval into depth roles, where they really, probably, belong heading into next year, particularly when you consider the potential impacts of the pandemic to their development timeline.

The addition of a top-tier starter also mitigates some of the risk Shohei brings to the equation by giving Joe Maddon two anchors for the rotation, rather than relying on just Ohtani and his unfortunate arm issues. If Dylan Bundy even comes close to repeating his 2020 performance and Ohtani returns to form, that would give the Angels a three-headed hydra, greatly improving the Halos chances of reaching the playoffs.

However, in order to get that top-tier starter, the Angels front office will need to use significant resources, whether through payroll, their 40-man roster, and/or their farm system, to acquire that player, which may limit their ability to improve the roster in other areas. The reason we bring this up is that the Angels may best be served by not only acquiring a top-tier starter but also an additional mid-tier type to really build a truly deep, quality rotation (in this case, probably a six-man version) with exceptional depth, which will deplete even more resources, probably.

This resource loss may not be as bad as it seems, potentially. If there was ever a time to move prospects, particularly with a new GM coming in trying to buttress a team on the verge of contention, it could be now. When you consider how many extra players are hitting the free agent market, too, including a plethora of Minor League prospects that were cut loose, Minasian may see this as an opportunity to not only acquire what the team needs but perhaps fill in some of the holes that will be leftover with fringe prospects that were cut loose from other organizations.

So, if a top tier starter is in play, what are we looking at in a potential Trevor Bauer signing?

Frankly a lot.

Finding an ideal comparable player is not simple but Stephan Strasburg signed a 7-year deal for $245M (an extension to his original extension) to stay with the Nationals, prior to 2020, at 31 1/2 years old. Gerrit Cole, who is significantly better than Trevor, signed a 9-year, $324M (it could be an 8-year, $288M if the Yankees don’t void the player option year) deal. Patrick Corbin, a less comparable player, signed a 6-year, $140M contract, prior to his age 29 season. Muddying the waters, further, is the financial crisis around baseball right now, making this risk-opportunity analysis difficult on both sides, for any prospective, acquiring teams and Trevor’s agent.

Bauer has made it clear in the past that he might prefer signing year-to-year deals to potentially increase his earning power. However, he walked that statement back a bit, not too long ago, so anything could be in the cards. I actually disagree with MLBTradeRumors.com’s recent assessment that he will find a 4-year deal, that seems odd as it would place Trevor back in free agency in his age 34 season, which does not seem ideal for him. Bauer will be 30 years old in 2021 and I see him either signing an expensive but short 1-2 year deal or going the distance on a 6-8 year pact, based on what the market offers. Perhaps a 1-2 year deal at $40M-45M per season or a 6-8 year deal for something in the $160M-240M ballpark.

All of this may be a moot point for the Halos, however. In either scenario the Angels will basically use all of the margin in their payroll pushing them up to or over the CBT threshold, into Luxury Tax territory. Moreno has stated in the past he would consider that for the “right” player but that litmus test has never come to pass and, in this economic atmosphere, seems like a longshot.

The bottom line is that Bauer may be a non-starter if Arte doesn’t tighten up the yacht fuel expenditures. It seems more likely, monetarily, that the Angels will move prospects to acquire another top-of-the-rotation option and then perhaps supplement the rotation further via free agency or additional trades.

So with that thought in mind, it would not be surprising to see the Angels, in addition to acquiring an ace, pursue a mid-rotation starter to add to their shopping list as well. Heck, even two might be on the table if Minasian decides he wants to send one of Bundy or Heaney out the door to try and micromanage the payroll.

For example, Perry may want to capitalize on Dylan Bundy’s very successful 2020 campaign and move him and his salary in exchange for one or more near-MLB ready prospects and then trade for another less expensive starter like Vince Velasquez or Jon Gray, on top of acquiring someone like Blake Snell. That Bundy for Velasquez or Gray exchange, would result in about a $1M-3.5M decrease to team payroll for 2021, hypothetically.

If Minasian encounters a lot of difficulty acquiring an ace, the Angels could add the aforementioned mid-tier starter and see where they end up at the Trade Deadline and then try to acquire one at that time. This in fact might open up other avenues, as teams that were in fringe contention or on the verge of a rebuild, may throw in the towel and sell off a top-of-the-rotation starter, then. Only time and a series of vigorous phone calls and meetings will tell the tale for the Angels new GM.

This was, in-part, what I was referring to in the Strategy article, regarding the additional unpredictability that this off-season might offer. Perry is not just buying, he is gauging the market across the board to understand how other teams see the value of our assets versus what the Angels believe they are worth. Those assets that have more value to others than they do to the Halos might be shipped out the door like Noe Ramirez and Leonardo Rivas, were, in exchange for Raisel Iglesias (good trade, in principle, by the way).

Finding that top-of-the-rotation unicorn will not be easy but it will be essential for the Angels in 2021 and thus it needs to be the teams #1 priority, figuratively and literally.

Expect: The Angels will do everything they can to acquire a frontline starter this off-season and we here at Angelswin.com feel they will be successful in doing so, albeit it may not be Trevor Bauer, considering Moreno’s history to-date. If we do sign Trevor it feels like a one or two-year deal is in the cards so that he can clear the COVID-19 pandemic on a clearer path to free agency and a subsequent long-term pact and Moreno can go over the CBT threshold for no more than two years, avoiding the really high tax rates that kick in on the third year over the Luxury Tax. If Bauer is a no-go, even on a long term deal, a trade for an ace will ultimately cost us one of Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh, likely, as we have sufficient outfield depth in the Minors to pad the loss of one of these fine young prospects or possibly one or more Major League assets. Additionally, the Angels may look to pick up another mid-tier starter, such as the aforementioned Velasquez or Gray or maybe a guy like Carlos Carrasco, Zach Davies or Eduardo Rodriguez, in trade, or conceivably one of our old friends Garrett Richards or Matt Shoemaker or possibly a guy like Jose Quintana, Jose Urena, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, or Tomoyuki Sugano from free agency, for instance (much more likely if we do not acquire Bauer). In the case of the Halos picking up both a front line and mid rotation starter, they may have to move to a six-man rotation (because Heaney, Bundy, and Barria are out of options and Ohtani and any front line starter we pick up are locks for #1 and #2 spots).

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[Revad]

Nicely done as usual.  Anyone know if posting fees (Sugano) count toward competitive balance/ luxury tax totals?  

[Chuck]

Good stuff @ettin!

My prediction: I think we'll see Detmers a lot sooner than most may think. Chris Rodriguez too! 

Good problems to have. 

[Hubs]

Can you explain why you put Griffin Canning 7th on the depth chart and didn’t include him in your rotation projection? 
 

If you don’t see him in the rotation or think there’s an issue that 99% of other writers don’t see, perhaps you should comment on it.

[Hubs]

44 minutes ago, Revad said:

Nicely done as usual.  Anyone know if posting fees (Sugano) count toward competitive balance/ luxury tax totals?  

They do not.

[BTH]

What is that order for starting pitchers? Is it just random? I'm not sure that Peña is going to be viewed as a starter. Also, I don't think they should even pencil Ohtani in as an option for starters. If he contributes on the pitching side, that's a bonus.

[Chuck]

I'll let @ettin respond as to why that order is the way it is, but after a rough start Canning finished well and ended up with a 3.99 ERA, striking out a batter per inning.

These were a couple of his dominant starts vs. the Mariners and Padres over the last month of the season.

Honestly, I would move Canning ahead of Heaney on the depth chart and after Bundy as it currently stands.

Start vs. the Padres

 

Start vs. the Mariners

[AngelsLakersFan]

Peters will be DFA'd before spring training. I expect we don't see Suarez at all this year (hopefully). And while Ohtani is getting a shot this year I dont think the team is penciling him into the rotation. They'll see him as a 6th man who is getting a shot at pitching while everyone else takes an extra day off.

[Hubs]

If they go with a 5 man rotation and don’t trade any of their current starters, Ohtani likely won’t be part of it.

If they do a hybrid 5/6 which is what they did in 2018, then they need a guy who can go back and forth from the pen. Pena can be that guy but they really liked him in the pen last year. So it likely falls to Barria.

5.5 man Rotation is as follows

1. FA / Trade Starter

2. Bundy

3. Heaney

4. Ohtani (Sunday only)

5. Canning

6. Barria/Sandoval 

 

Now they might trade Barria to acquire a starter but if they traded for a top end guy, then you couldn’t make the hybrid 5/6 work, as the guy in the 6th spot needs to have options so you can send him back and forth to AAA.

This is why I don’t see them getting two high end starters (and of course money).

If they were able to get a guy via trade liek Marquez and acquire Bauer, I think Barria and Heaney would be on the move and they’d try this with a rotation of:

1. Bauer

2. Marquez

3. Bundy

4. Ohtani

5. Canning

6. Sandoval

[Junkballer]

Depending on several factors, such as how Ohtani looks in spring, whether Barria (or fill in the blank) is included in a trade, whether they get a true TOR arm and a 2nd starter, I can see Canning in AAA to begin the year.  His elbow, by his own admission, is something he will have to manage the rest of his career and he hasnt pitched over 100 innings since 2018 (113).  If Barria is still around, I could see Canning having a shorter season, giving Ohtani time to re-prove himself and Barria, having no options, a slot.

[ettin]

7 hours ago, Hubs said:

Can you explain why you put Griffin Canning 7th on the depth chart and didn’t include him in your rotation projection? 
 

If you don’t see him in the rotation or think there’s an issue that 99% of other writers don’t see, perhaps you should comment on it.

It's certainly possible Hubs, I don't think he is a lock at this moment in time simply due to the fact that Ohtani will take up one spot and the out-of-options players, Heaney, Bundy, and Barria will take up an additional three slots. That only leaves one opening, which will presumably go to the potential acquisition of a top rotation arm. If the Angels run a six-man rotation then I think Canning or Suarez is the next in line. Of course the Angels could throw Barria in the bullpen but that feels unlikely, particularly after the nice season he had.

Canning has Minor League options and there is a lot of uncertainty about every prospect's development timeline being screwed around with due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Having him start the year in the Minors creates better depth in my opinion but I don't disagree that he is on the cusp of starting regularly in the Majors. Again there is a lot of uncertainty to this season, I don't think it is as clear as it might appear.

[ettin]

6 hours ago, Trendon said:

What is that order for starting pitchers? Is it just random? I'm not sure that Peña is going to be viewed as a starter. Also, I don't think they should even pencil Ohtani in as an option for starters. If he contributes on the pitching side, that's a bonus.

Pena is a spot starter out of the bullpen, probably, if he isn't traded. He can do both roles if needed. And yes Ohtani is a wild card which is why the Angels need a top arm to mitigate the risk he poses to being in the rotation regularly, but the Angels are, at this time, penciling him in with the understanding they might have to pencil him out.

[ettin]

5 hours ago, Hubs said:

If they go with a 5 man rotation and don’t trade any of their current starters, Ohtani likely won’t be part of it.

If they do a hybrid 5/6 which is what they did in 2018, then they need a guy who can go back and forth from the pen. Pena can be that guy but they really liked him in the pen last year. So it likely falls to Barria.

5.5 man Rotation is as follows

1. FA / Trade Starter

2. Bundy

3. Heaney

4. Ohtani (Sunday only)

5. Canning

6. Barria/Sandoval 

 

Now they might trade Barria to acquire a starter but if they traded for a top end guy, then you couldn’t make the hybrid 5/6 work, as the guy in the 6th spot needs to have options so you can send him back and forth to AAA.

This is why I don’t see them getting two high end starters (and of course money).

If they were able to get a guy via trade liek Marquez and acquire Bauer, I think Barria and Heaney would be on the move and they’d try this with a rotation of:

1. Bauer

2. Marquez

3. Bundy

4. Ohtani

5. Canning

6. Sandoval

 

5 hours ago, Junkballer said:

Depending on several factors, such as how Ohtani looks in spring, whether Barria (or fill in the blank) is included in a trade, whether they get a true TOR arm and a 2nd starter, I can see Canning in AAA to begin the year.  His elbow, by his own admission, is something he will have to manage the rest of his career and he hasnt pitched over 100 innings since 2018 (113).  If Barria is still around, I could see Canning having a shorter season, giving Ohtani time to re-prove himself and Barria, having no options, a slot.

Again this is why I emphasized how uncertain this off-season is and the unpredictability in trying to pin down what is actually going to happen. Feel free to second-guess me I am quite certain I won't get too much of it right, this year, just too many moving parts.

[Docwaukee]

Nice job Robert.  

Canning is a lock for the rotation though if he's healthy.  No doubt.  

[Hubs]

I’ve actually put together an excel sheet with the projected rotation with OhtanI starting all Sundays (except when it’s Bauer’s regular slot) and it ends up being around 20 starts for him, 20 for the 6th guy, 25 for Canning (Depending in how they lineup) and 32-34 for Bundy, Heaney, and Bauer or another # 1.

Marquez and say Sugano also work because Sugano will have options and you’d likely part with a starter in the trade. 

It works money wise. And both Ohtani and Sugano likely line up once a week, making them start say 50 games, leaving 32-34 for the other three and then like 10 spot starts for Sandoval. 
 

 

[jsnpritchett]

LOL at anyone who thinks Ohtani will make 20 starts next season.

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I’ve actually put together an excel sheet with the projected rotation with OhtanI starting all Sundays (except when it’s Bauer’s regular slot) and it ends up being around 20 starts for him, 20 for the 6th guy, 25 for Canning (Depending in how they lineup) and 32-34 for Bundy, Heaney, and Bauer or another # 1.

Marquez and say Sugano also work because Sugano will have options and you’d likely part with a starter in the trade. 

It works money wise. And both Ohtani and Sugano likely line up once a week, making them start say 50 games, leaving 32-34 for the other three and then like 10 spot starts for Sandoval. 
 

 

why does the fact that Sugano has options matter?  It's like pointing out that Ohtani or Fletcher have options.  Those guys aren't getting sent down.  

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

LOL at anyone who thinks Ohtani will make 20 starts next season.

I’ll take that bet. 

[Hubs]

Just now, Dochalo said:

why does the fact that Sugano has options matter?  It's like pointing out that Ohtani or Fletcher have options.  Those guys aren't getting sent down.  

It’s both having options and the fact that he’ll pitch once a week. At most these two would give you 25 each, meaning you end up with 112 for the other four guys and it works. Occasionally they could send him to “AAA” but not really if he was gonna skip his day of the week the following week and have the roster spot.

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Hubs said:

It’s both having options and the fact that he’ll pitch once a week. At most these two would give you 25 each, meaning you end up with 112 for the other four guys and it works. Occasionally they could send him to “AAA” but not really if he was gonna skip his day of the week the following week and have the roster spot.

I can almost guarantee they wouldn't send him to AAA even if it were roster manipulation.  These types of things have financial and psychological impact even if it's not the the players overall salary. Service time, per diems, etc.  There's no precedent for doing anything like this with a veteran foreign player that's been signed to a multi year major league contract.  

[Stradling]

22 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I’ll take that bet. 

Are you betting that Shohei will make 20 starts? If that happens, I would say we only need one starter.

[Angelsjunky]

I'd be very surprised if Canning wasn't in the rotation to start the year. He's earned his place and needs to keep facing major league pitching. Starting him in AAA would be potentially damaging for his development.

I'd guess the plan is something like this games started: Free Agent 30+, Bundy 30+, Heaney 30, Canning 25, Barria 15-20, Ohtani 15-20, Other (Sandoval et al) 20. Adjusted, of course, for injury.

Also, I like the idea of slotting Ohtani into a five-man rotation. Let him join American baseball. They can always skip the occasional start, and maybe reduce time further later in the year, especially if Detmers or Rodriguez seem ready.

If they sign Bauer, we probably won't see any other major signings, just a handful of clean peanuts and minor league depth pitchers - or possibly a trade for a high level prospect. If not Bauer, it is a more open playing field and I think they'll go after two guys. Maybe a pair of questionable guys like two of Odorizzi, Richards, and Sugano, or a trade.

If the Angels have another disappointing year, expect Bundy and Heaney to be gone in July. If Detmers and Rodriguez are ready, one of them might be gone anyway.

[ettin]

Hypothetical trade: Griffin Canning, Jordyn Adams, and Alexander Ramirez for Blake Snell

 

Who says no and why?

[Chuck]

6 minutes ago, ettin said:

Hypothetical trade: Griffin Canning, Jordyn Adams, and Alexander Ramirez for Blake Snell

 

Who says no and why?

I say no. If anything I would do Barria, Adams and Yan. 

Canning could be a #2 or at the very least a solid #3 if he's 100% healthy. His delivery and stuff reminds me a lot of a young Trevor Bauer who didn't really put it altogether until his 7th/8th season in the big leagues. 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Are you betting that Shohei will make 20 starts? If that happens, I would say we only need one starter.

Yes. If there is a regular or longer than normal spring training and they play at least 140 games.