AngelsWin.com Today: 2021 Angelswin.com Primer Series: Starting Rotation

[Stradling]

Just now, Hubs said:

Yes. If there is a regular or longer than normal spring training and they play at least 140 games.

From your lips to Gods ears.  

[Docwaukee]

21 minutes ago, ettin said:

Hypothetical trade: Griffin Canning, Jordyn Adams, and Alexander Ramirez for Blake Snell

 

Who says no and why?

I would say no.  Snell is better than Canning for sure.  but by how much? 

to me this is like giving up a solid #3/4 for a #2 plus some decent or very good prospect capital.  I'm not sure that probable 1.5 WAR difference is worth that.  

the thing about Snell is that the Rays are trying to sell the 5 WAR guy from 2018 and teams want to pay the 2.5 WAR price from 2019.  

small sample but Canning and Snell had about the same value in 2020.  

[Docwaukee]

and @ettin.  why do you hate Griffin Canning?  

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I can almost guarantee they wouldn't send him to AAA even if it were roster manipulation.  These types of things have financial and psychological impact even if it's not the the players overall salary. Service time, per diems, etc.  There's no precedent for doing anything like this with a veteran foreign player that's been signed to a multi year major league contract.  

Ok makes sense. You convinced me. I didn’t think they send Canning down like Ettin says, for the exact same reasons.

 

 

[Chuck]

21 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and @ettin.  why do you hate Griffin Canning?  

I'm wondering the same. 

@ettin? lol

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, ettin said:

Hypothetical trade: Griffin Canning, Jordyn Adams, and Alexander Ramirez for Blake Snell

 

Who says no and why?

No, unless it includes at least one high upside prospect along with Snell.

Canning or Adams alone might be enough to get Snell. Canning isn't as good as Snell (yet) and is unlikely to ever be as good as Snell was in 2018, but not only is that just one year of CY caliber performance, but Canning is, what, four years younger and much cheaper?

Adams is potentially one good minor league season away from being a top 10 prospect. He doesn't have the power of Adell, but he's got everything else - plus is faster and a better defender. He could be a modern day Lenny Dykstra, the type of guy who hits .290 with 20 HR and 40+ SB, while playing GG center field defense.

Ramirez is the type of guy you just don't trade yet. I think by this time next year he'll be garnering some attention as a high upside bat. Let him develop awhile before sending him as a spare part in a trade.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[ettin]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

and @ettin.  why do you hate Griffin Canning?  

 

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Ok makes sense. You convinced me. I didn’t think they send Canning down like Ettin says, for the exact same reasons.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'm wondering the same. 

@ettin? lol

I see that the hypothetical got you riled up. Good I now know how to provoke future reactions.

The only point I was trying to get across there is that we have other valuable assets.

I think Canning will very likely be here a long time, I love his potential.

Canning, Rengifo, Fletcher, Suarez, et al, all have significant value in trade so anything is possible but I'd prefer to see them all stay in Anaheim.

[Warfarin]

17 hours ago, Hubs said:

If they go with a 5 man rotation and don’t trade any of their current starters, Ohtani likely won’t be part of it.

If they do a hybrid 5/6 which is what they did in 2018, then they need a guy who can go back and forth from the pen. Pena can be that guy but they really liked him in the pen last year. So it likely falls to Barria.

5.5 man Rotation is as follows

1. FA / Trade Starter

2. Bundy

3. Heaney

4. Ohtani (Sunday only)

5. Canning

6. Barria/Sandoval 

 

Now they might trade Barria to acquire a starter but if they traded for a top end guy, then you couldn’t make the hybrid 5/6 work, as the guy in the 6th spot needs to have options so you can send him back and forth to AAA.

This is why I don’t see them getting two high end starters (and of course money).

If they were able to get a guy via trade liek Marquez and acquire Bauer, I think Barria and Heaney would be on the move and they’d try this with a rotation of:

1. Bauer

2. Marquez

3. Bundy

4. Ohtani

5. Canning

6. Sandoval

While acquiring Bauer and Marquez would be the dream, I don't see it as likely.

Bauer's cost aside, Marquez would require, at the minimum, Adell + either Fletcher or Canning + other prospects.

Marquez has 4 cost-controlled years at a bargain rate, given his production and age.  

Per baseballtradevalues, a "fair" trade for Marquez might be Adell, Canning, and Jackson.  Would you do that move?

Peronsally, for me, yes, I would.  Canning has 5 years of control remaining, and while those years will be cheaper than Marquez, the two are not the same caliber of pitcher, with Marquez being an established ace and Canning being more of a #4 SP with #3SP upside.

If we did somehow manage to acquire Marquez, I would assume we would go out and get an Odorizzi or Quintana type instead of Bauer.

Marquez, Bundy, Heaney, Odorizzi, Barria, Ohtani*

Next offseason, we can make a concerted effort to re-sign one of Bundy or Heaney, and hopefully one of Determs or CRod is ready to start by then, so we can have a rotation of Marquez, Bundy, Odorizzi, Detmers, Barria, Ohtani*

Securing Marquez + Odorizzi leaves payroll space to add a decent second catcher as well as a good platoon LHH OF to the mix.

[Warfarin]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

No, unless it includes at least one high upside prospect along with Snell.

Canning or Adams alone might be enough to get Snell. Canning isn't as good as Snell (yet) and is unlikely to ever be as good as Snell was in 2018, but not only is that just one year of CY caliber performance, but Canning is, what, four years younger and much cheaper?

Adams is potentially one good minor league season away from being a top 10 prospect. He doesn't have the power of Adell, but he's got everything else - plus is faster and a better defender. He could be a modern day Lenny Dykstra, the type of guy who hits .290 with 20 HR and 40+ SB, while playing GG center field defense.

Ramirez is the type of guy you just don't trade yet. I think by this time next year he'll be garnering some attention as a high upside bat. Let him develop awhile before sending him as a spare part in a trade.

While Adams has a lot of potential, he would assuredly not be enough to secure Snell at this time, as the Rays are said to be looking for a sure fire top 50 prospect in the sport.  Adams may be that one day, but he is not there yet.

Any deal for Snell involves either Adell or Marsh.  But even that said, it is known the Rays are looking for a catcher, so it is quite possible we just don't line up with TB's needs, making any deal with them difficult.

Personally, I hang onto Adams because of his CF potential.  I see him as our likely CF of the future, with Trout shifting to LF once Adams is ready, and Marsh becoming our RF.  Those 3 would provide a rather elite defensive OF.  It is also why I consider Adell expendable.

[Warfarin]

9 hours ago, ettin said:

Hypothetical trade: Griffin Canning, Jordyn Adams, and Alexander Ramirez for Blake Snell

 

Who says no and why?

The Rays say no, but it's close.

I like Canning, but given his UCL concerns and his pitching track record so far, he is currently an SP4.  He has upside for more for sure, but the Rays won't move Snell for someone like Canning.  Adams definitely adds an intriguing prospect with a ton of upside, as does Ramirez.

[ettin]

On 12/15/2020 at 8:03 AM, AngelsWin.com said:

Additionally, the Angels may look to pick up another mid-tier starter, such as the aforementioned Velasquez or Gray or maybe a guy like Carlos Carrasco, Zach Davies or Eduardo Rodriguez, in trade, or conceivably one of our old friends Garrett Richards or Matt Shoemaker or possibly a guy like Jose Quintana, Jose Urena, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, or Tomoyuki Sugano from free agency, for instance (much more likely if we do not acquire Bauer).

So first of all I know @Dochalo must be ecstatic!

Jose has been a workhorse, most of his career, so in principle I think the signing is sound and at a pretty reasonable one-year salary.

Also, acquiring Quintana does not necessarily rule out Bauer, presuming Moreno is willing to exceed the Luxury Tax. However, the odds have now shifted heavily to the Angels trading for another mid-tier type like Velasquez, Gray (not the Sonny), or Rodriguez to round out the rotation and stay at least $5M-$10M under the Luxury Tax line.

In fact, I think the Angels, barring the magical Moreno Luxury Tax breach for Bauer, will pick up one of those budget-friendly names (Richards, Velasquez, Shoemaker, or Gray) as their last off-season move to reinforce the rotation. If they happen to spend less on a guy like Richards or Shoemaker they might add one more bullpen arm, possibly.