The Angels 2021 Bullpen

[Hubs]

Nearly every day I see a post on Facebook or a thread here that references the Angels need for Starting Pitching, and I think that is very true. But that's just half of their pitching woes.

The Angeles pen ranked 22nd in Fangraphs Preseason 2020 Rankings, but they had the second worst ERA as a pen in the Majors and the most blown saves (even though they won some of those games). The Pen arguably cost the Angels a shot at the playoffs.

So fixing the rotation will affect the current make up of the pen, and frequently, the pen will drastically be different in the beginning of the season versus the end.

They'll claim guys via waivers and have some minor league free agents or players from their own minors come up and make an impact a la Key Middleton or Justin Anderson but honestly they are going to have to acquire arms via free agency or trade or both in order to fix the pen in one offseason, especially with non-tendering or waiving seven members of the 2020 Pen since the offseason began, (Barnes, Bedrosian, Anderson, Andriese, Milner, Middleton, and Robles).

Anderson didn't throw a pitch for the 2020 Angels, but the other 6 made 95 appearances, threw 106.2 IP, and gave up 69 ER for a 5.82 ERA.

Extrapolated over a full season, that's roughly 288 innings to make up for. The Staff would've given up 186 runs in that amount of innings.

So really they need to account for 4-5 new relievers at least.

Who are your picks? I like a lot of names, but bullpen free agency starts with getting a closer, and Rosenthal is my number one pick. I'd also go for reunions with under the radar guys like Jose Alvarez, Blake Parker and Yusmiero Petit, and maybe go try to sign Andriese back for lower than his arbitration number. Jake McGee, Mark Melancon, and Alex Claudio also fit the list as does Archie Bradley and Liam Hendriks.

From their own minors, I think they get 1-2 guys, still leaving 4-5 guys from other organizations either via Free agency or trade.

By cutting the guys they cut, I'd be they have between 12-15M for 2021 earmarked for the pen, maybe as high as 18.

How would you spend $15M on the pen? I'll post my picks later in the comments.

[greginpsca]

How much would be left for SP & catcher if they spend $15mil on the pen?

[Hubs]

18 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

How much would be left for SP & catcher if they spend $15mil on the pen?

I expect them to spend $15 M on the pen, you can disagree, but I see them spending maybe 5-7 on a catcher and 25 on a pitcher. I still think they’ll have 15 for the pen.
 

The reported $30 million figure is literally pulled out of thin air. They have $121 or so committed for five players, that’s Trout, Rendon, Pujols, Upton and now Iglesias.

Heaney, Bundy, Stassi, Ohtani, Peña, N. Ramirez, and Mayers will make around $20-$22 in arbitration for 7 spots.

Fletcher, Bemboom, Rengifo, Walsh, Ward, Canning, Sandoval, Buttrey, Quintana and Barria is another 8-10 guys at around $5 million total. 

That’s around $146-$147 with around $40-$45 to spend to get to the $190 range, which is where they been for a few seasons now and can maybe spend $5 more than that without hitting the tax.

Do they need two starters or one? I say an Ace is more important than two midrange guys, and I’d say they add 3-4 relievers, a starter, a catcher and maybe an OF and they’re set. 

Thanks for reading.

 

[mmc]

Dream bullpen would be

Mayers

Buttrey

Pena

Rodriguez

Hand

Yan 

Ramirez

Colome

[Warfarin]

@Hubs Nice thread.

Currently, we are ranked #17 by fWAR in terms of our pen at this point in the offseason, which takes into account yesterday's purge.

If you look at the caliber of FA relievers available, none of them (outside of Hendriks) projects too highly.

Still, that said, I would expect them to invest or acquire a high-leverage reliever as well as pursue some under-the-radar guys.

As of now, our bullpen is Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Ramirez, and..?  

I would pursue one of Hand or Treinen to be the high-leverage guy.  The cost should be ~7mil AAV for one of them.  I'd consider someone like Yates on a 1/5 type deal, hoping he bounces back.  I'd also improve the pen by bolstering our SP and having Sandoval become a multi-inning relief weapon.  I'd also take a flyer on someone like Brandon Morrow to a non-guaranteed contract and hope he can be healthy, as he's been dominant when he's actually been healthy.

So - let's say Hand, Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Yates, Ramirez, Sandoval, and Reyes/Morrow/etc.

Buttrey had a down year last year, but if he can regain his 2018-2019 form, he's a solid high-leverage reliever, so that pen should be more than sufficient.

[Lazorko Saves]

I'm not convinced we just non-tendered a bunch of guys making between $700k - $1.9m (excluding the easy call on Robles) only to go out on the open market and get several guys who will all cost multiples more than that.

Maybe we spend on one high end bullpen guy and the rest are dumpster dives.  I don't know.  Going out to the free agent market to build a bullpen sucks, but here we are.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

How would you spend $15M on the pen?

Kirby Yates- 1/$7M.

Archie Bradley-  1/$6M.

Andrew Chafin- 1/$2M.

(Using FanGraphs' crowdsource contract predictions for Yates and Chafin. There were none for Bradley, but he was projected to make 4.3-5.7 million in arbitration before he was non-tendered).

 

CL- Yates, SU- Bradley, SU- Mayers, SU- Peña, MID- Chafin, MID- Buttrey, MID- Ramirez, LR- Barria

[BTH]

38 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

I'm not convinced we just non-tendered a bunch of guys making between $700k - $1.9m (excluding the easy call on Robles) only to go out on the open market and get several guys who will all cost multiples more than that..

By non-tendering 5 bullpen options, they've kind of limited themselves to the point that they need to sign multiple guys in order to fill out a bullpen.

Right now, the only relievers on the 40-man roster are Bard, Buttrey, Keller, Mayers, Peña, Quijada, Ramirez, and Reyes. They could move Barria, Peters, Sandoval, or Suarez to the pen, but they still need at least 2 MLB caliber arms in the bullpen.

[Hubs]

I think they saw the guys they had, saw their results and thought, why do we hang on to these guys? The vast majority were Eppler / Ausmus guys. 

They can turn around and find 2 guys making around $1-2 M or less and get a guy at $7 and a guy at $5 and be at that $15 number.

 

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think they saw the guys they had, saw their results and thought, why do we hang on to these guys? The vast majority were Eppler / Ausmus guys. 

They can turn around and find 2 guys making around $1-2 M or less and get a guy at $7 and a guy at $5 and be at that $15 number.

 

Right.  I think people saw the non-tenders and assumed it was a sign of being cheap, but I think it's important to note that we non-tendered Middleton while keeping Ramirez.  Ramirez is projected to earn more via arbitration AND also doesn't have any options remaining, so he's both more expensive and comes with less roster flexibility.  Still, he was kept, so I feel like the non-tenders were mainly due to Minasian analyzing the relievers we had and feeling they weren't adequate enough.

Something that was interesting to me was listening to Andrew Friedman discuss bullpen construction the other week, and an important point he made that it isn't just about having a bunch of good relievers, but rather, having a number of good relievers who pitch differently from one another - i.e., having a sinker/slider guy, a 4-seamer/curve guy, etc.  Basically - more options for a manager to use for different situations and against different hitters who may thrive against different pitchers.

I look forward to seeing how Minasian builds his bullpen.  

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Trendon said:

By non-tendering 5 bullpen options, they've kind of limited themselves to the point that they need to sign multiple guys in order to fill out a bullpen.

Right now, the only relievers on the 40-man roster are Bard, Buttrey, Keller, Mayers, Peña, Quijada, Ramirez, and Reyes. They could move Barria, Peters, Sandoval, or Suarez to the pen, but they still need at least 2 MLB caliber arms in the bullpen.

I don’t think that’s necessarily true. We already have Mayers, Buttrey, Ramirez, and Pena for half a pen. 

We have another half-dozen of guys who should serve as AAA depth, and likely grab a spot or two. 

I think they sign one premium guy or two guys mid-tier guys, and then rely on some waiver claims for another two or three to add to that second contingent. Cheap, unproven, optionable, controllable. It’s easy to grab those guys in volume - you just need to trust your data and scouts. 

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I don’t think that’s necessarily true. We already have Mayers, Buttrey, Ramirez, and Pena for half a pen. 

We have another half-dozen of guys who should serve as AAA depth, and likely grab a spot or two. 

I think they sign one premium guy or two guys mid-tier guys, and then rely on some waiver claims for another two or three to add to that second contingent. Cheap, unproven, optionable, controllable. It’s easy to grab those guys in volume - you just need to trust your data and scouts. 

Right.  I suspect we'll get a high-leverage reliever, but I suspect the rest will be under-the-radar, cheap options.  So I would venture to guess the total amount spend on our bullpen will be 10mil max, but quite likely less than that.

[greginpsca]

My guess is that the money they saved from Simmons contract, they might want to spread that money among Iglesias, a catcher and pen arms.  Then the remaining money for starting pitching. All the above posts, i can see some of those scenarios too.  But we are just guessing as Minasian might go full DiPoto and trade a few of the remaining guys.

[Hubs]

My picks Rosenthal at 7.5, Bradley at 4, then reunions with Andriese at 1.5 and Alvarez at 3 and Parker at 1 or so. 

That’s 17, but I can get to 15 if offering Alvarez, Bradley, and Rosenthal and shaving off the 2 M in exchange for future salaries. 

[angelsnationtalk]

I wonder if Minasian wants to spend more money on a few good bullpen arms rather than one (really good) starter. 

Maybe he'd sign a few strong bullpen arms, one starter like Tanaka/Odorizzi and then trade for an arm. Rockies are cutting payroll... maybe Marquez? 

[Warfarin]

20 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I wonder if Minasian wants to spend more money on a few good bullpen arms rather than one (really good) starter. 

Maybe he'd sign a few strong bullpen arms, one starter like Tanaka/Odorizzi and then trade for an arm. Rockies are cutting payroll... maybe Marquez? 

The thing is though, as we have seen from how free agency has started, SP is still coveted and valued highly.  There are just so many relievers on the market that Minasian can likely cobble together a pretty good bullpen at low values.  He can probably sign guys like Archie Bradley, Pedro Baez, etc for rather small one year deals.

At this point, I'd like to see him do two things:

1.  Sign Bauer

2.  Use prospect capital to acquire a young SP (a #3-type SP) and catcher

He can them assemble the bullpen and OF from the many spare parts that are on the market

[Angel Oracle]

Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, and Barria would be a solid enough rotation (with Ohtani fitting in for about 15-20 starts).

For the pen, move Sandoval there as he seems to have really good stuff for 2-3 innings.   That leaves 3 relievers to bring in (not including Reyes).

Sounds like they essentially have around $45-50 million to spend without exceeding the tax threshold?

Edited December 4, 2020 by Angel Oracle

[gotbeer]

IMO, the arson squad is just as important as the need for a SP for us.  My preference would be Colome to close (market $7.8).  Clippard (not listed) and Soria ($6) for relief.  The good thing with Clippard and Soria, is with their age, probably 1 year deals.   

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/

[totdprods]

I know he’s been discussed plenty, but Joe Musgrove makes more and more sense as the offseason goes on. His floor as a #3-4 is still plenty useful, he has ceiling to grow in to, his salary is low enough to allow the Angels to add elsewhere, Pittsburgh has plenty of reason to move him...

And I think a deal could be expanded to include any number of Pittsburgh relievers, Stallings. Could even ask on Bryan Reynolds or Gregory Polanco for RF. 

Trade for someone like Musgrove, sign someone relatively solid like Odorizzi or Quintana, and you still have enough money left to sprinkle in a little help to the pen, catcher, and maybe RF. Nothing flashy but a really solid offseason. 

Edited December 4, 2020 by totdprods

[Warfarin]

37 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, and Barria would be a solid enough rotation (with Ohtani fitting in for about 15-20 starts).

For the pen, move Sandoval there as he seems to have really good stuff for 2-3 innings.   That leaves 3 relievers to bring in (not including Reyes).

Sounds like they essentially have around $45-50 million to spend without exceeding the tax threshold?

I don't think Arte will get near the luxury tax.  I'd guess that we'll probably spend 30-35mil or so moving forward.  Maybe if Arte really wants to go for it, he'll spend up to 40, but I don't think it'll go beyond that.

FWIW, Cot's estimates that we are about 43mil below the luxury tax currently:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM1oXHHuIE33NhIMEN-7bD0J9mg/edit#gid=1520401900

[Angel Oracle]

19 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I don't think Arte will get near the luxury tax.  I'd guess that we'll probably spend 30-35mil or so moving forward.  Maybe if Arte really wants to go for it, he'll spend up to 40, but I don't think it'll go beyond that.

FWIW, Cot's estimates that we are about 43mil below the luxury tax currently:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM1oXHHuIE33NhIMEN-7bD0J9mg/edit#gid=1520401900

If so, then that probably leaves out Bauer.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Angel Oracle

[tdawg87]

7 good pitchers.

[Taylor]

1. Someone who throws strikes

2. Someone who throws strikes

3. Someone who throws strikes

4. Someone who throws strikes

5. Someone who throws strikes

6. Someone who throws strikes

[tdawg87]

11 minutes ago, Taylor said:

1. Someone who throws strikes

2. Someone who throws strikes

3. Someone who throws strikes

4. Someone who throws strikes

5. Someone who throws strikes

6. Someone who throws strikes

A homerun is a strike.

[Chuck]

15 minutes ago, Taylor said:

1. Someone who throws strikes

2. Someone who throws strikes

3. Someone who throws strikes

4. Someone who throws strikes

5. Someone who throws strikes

6. Someone who throws strikes

Middleton threw strikes. 

A good majority of them were crushed for home runs.