The Angels 2021 Bullpen

[Angels 1961]

6 hours ago, greginpsca said:

How much would be left for SP & catcher if they spend $15mil on the pen?

They just reduced pen by 7 to 8 mill by non tendering those 5 so only spending 8 mill. Plus you can trade for pitching.

[Hubs]

As far as Cot’s, I’d say their projections are a little high for the arbitration guys and they include a 600 k figure for all of the guys under club control needed to fill out a roster. So if I’m advocating signing 5 free agent pitchers and a catcher, that’s $3 M less in club control salaries, which puts them at $46-47M to spend, which is exactly where I said they were.

[Taylor]

13 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

A homerun is a strike.

 

13 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Middleton threw strikes. 

A good majority of them were crushed for home runs. 

 

You guys know what I meant. Pitchers who have command.

[Hubs]

15 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I wonder if Minasian wants to spend more money on a few good bullpen arms rather than one (really good) starter. 

Maybe he'd sign a few strong bullpen arms, one starter like Tanaka/Odorizzi and then trade for an arm. Rockies are cutting payroll... maybe Marquez? 

Marquez is not going anywhere for salary reasons as he makes the league minimum.

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Marquez is not going anywhere for salary reasons as he makes the league minimum.

no he doesn't

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

no he doesn't

He was referring to his brother, Italian.

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

no he doesn't

I totally missed that. Thanks for the correction. Still I don’t see them unloading a 25 year old pitcher with a reasonable 7.5 Million unless someone took on say Blackmon’s deal. 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

He was referring to his brother, Italian.

You are the best at the internet.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I'm around 16.8-17M.

Brad Hand - 7M - 2/3 year deal - I like team option year 3 and lefties usually age well.

Archie Bradley - 3.5M - 2 year deal

Tyler Clippard - 2.5M - 1 year deal

Brad Peacock/Kirby Yates - 3M  +incentives and innings

Anthony Bass - Minor League Deal with SPT invite.

Trade with Braves: Grant Dayton 

I would had been interested in adding Yimi Garcia- But, he re-signed with the Marlins for 1.1M

[Vlad27Trout27]

Hand; 24 mil/ 3 yrs

Bradley; 14 mil/2 yrs

Petit: 8 mil/ 2 yrs. The one guy that Billy should have resigned.

[Angels 1961]

You have Mayers, Ramirez, Pena and Buttrey. I'm not be fan of Buttrey he had a bad second half of 2019 and 2020 not good. Have to hope Mayers is the real deal. I put Sandoval in pen because he can give more than 1 inn. So that's 5, I think Minasian gets a closer Rosenthal or Hand fit that spot other 2 or 3 others many to choose from. We need a closer to start with.

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

You have Mayers, Ramirez, Pena and Buttrey. I'm not be fan of Buttrey he had a bad second half of 2019 and 2020 not good. Have to hope Mayers is the real deal. I put Sandoval in pen because he can give more than 1 inn. So that's 5, I think Minasian gets a closer Rosenthal or Hand fit that spot other 2 or 3 others many to choose from. We need a closer to start with.

Depending what they do in the rotation, Barria may be in the pen also. 

[Docwaukee]

On 12/3/2020 at 3:23 PM, Hubs said:

I expect them to spend $15 M on the pen, you can disagree, but I see them spending maybe 5-7 on a catcher and 25 on a pitcher. I still think they’ll have 15 for the pen.
 

The reported $30 million figure is literally pulled out of thin air. They have $121 or so committed for five players, that’s Trout, Rendon, Pujols, Upton and now Iglesias.

Heaney, Bundy, Stassi, Ohtani, Peña, N. Ramirez, and Mayers will make around $20-$22 in arbitration for 7 spots.

Fletcher, Bemboom, Rengifo, Walsh, Ward, Canning, Sandoval, Buttrey, Quintana and Barria is another 8-10 guys at around $5 million total. 

That’s around $146-$147 with around $40-$45 to spend to get to the $190 range, which is where they been for a few seasons now and can maybe spend $5 more than that without hitting the tax.

Do they need two starters or one? I say an Ace is more important than two midrange guys, and I’d say they add 3-4 relievers, a starter, a catcher and maybe an OF and they’re set. 

Thanks for reading.

 

I think you're 10-15 mil over on your estimate.  

[tdawg87]

I honestly can't see us spending anything more than 6-7 million on the pen. And that's a high estimate.

Of course I could be wrong. But all these numbers being thrown out seem ridiculously high. We non-tendered what, 5 relievers? I guess it depends on what Minasian's plan is. I just don't see him taking a huge chunk of payroll on relievers. We need them, sure. But we need at least one solid SP as well. Probably two. The idea that we have $40 million to spend is pulled out of thin air just as much as the 30 million figure. We don't know how much we have to spend.

Again, I don't know anything more than anyone else. Just a Hofstra educated guess.

[Warfarin]

31 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I honestly can't see us spending anything more than 6-7 million on the pen. And that's a high estimate.

Of course I could be wrong. But all these numbers being thrown out seem ridiculously high. We non-tendered what, 5 relievers? I guess it depends on what Minasian's plan is. I just don't see him taking a huge chunk of payroll on relievers. We need them, sure. But we need at least one solid SP as well. Probably two. The idea that we have $40 million to spend is pulled out of thin air just as much as the 30 million figure. We don't know how much we have to spend.

Again, I don't know anything more than anyone else. Just a Hofstra educated guess.

I agree with this.  Good relievers can be found everywhere for fairly cheap.  The key thing is to sign a bunch of guys with some promise to minor league deals, along with one or two MLB signings, and hope that one or two of those other minor league guys emerge.

If our team was in better position, I could see Minasian spending more on relief.  However, it's clear he intends to upgrade SP and C, and those two areas are very expensive to upgrade.  Given that, he will likely have to reduce spending in other areas, which for us, would be relief and corner OF.

If we somehow land Bauer at a 27-30mil AAV deal, then I'd say most of the dominos can fall in place fairly nicely.  He can utilize prospect capital to acquire a catcher to pair with Stassi.  He can sign someone like Kirby Yates to a 1/5 type deal, hoping for a rebound, and sign someone like Brandon Morrow to a non-guaranteed deal, likewise hoping for a rebound.  Sandoval, who has pitched very well as a reliever, can be converted to relief.  And given the sheer volume of relievers, I'm sure he can probably find another at some modest commitment of like a 1/2 type deal.  So - Yates, Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Ramirez, Sandoval, Morrow*, and another low-cost signing.  We'd have Reyes, Reed, Naughton, etc as further depth too.  The best bullpen?  No, but there's good potential there, and if our rotation is Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani*, then I'd argue that we're in pretty good shape pitching wise.

Perhaps Minasian can swing a deal with Atlanta for either Contreras or Langeliers.  Something like Adell and Thaiss for Langeliers, Davidson, Shewmake, and Mintner.  Would give us our catcher and SS of the future, a LHP mid-rotation type SP (more like a solid #4 with some SP3 upside), and a legit LHRP, who can pair with Sandoval to give us two very good lefty relievers.  Atlanta gets a possible stud LF and someone who can help split time at 3B and provide a 1B insurance policy in case Freeman departs.

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I agree with this.  Good relievers can be found everywhere for fairly cheap.  The key thing is to sign a bunch of guys with some promise to minor league deals, along with one or two MLB signings, and hope that one or two of those other minor league guys emerge.

If our team was in better position, I could see Minasian spending more on relief.  However, it's clear he intends to upgrade SP and C, and those two areas are very expensive to upgrade.  Given that, he will likely have to reduce spending in other areas, which for us, would be relief and corner OF.

If we somehow land Bauer at a 27-30mil AAV deal, then I'd say most of the dominos can fall in place fairly nicely.  He can utilize prospect capital to acquire a catcher to pair with Stassi.  He can sign someone like Kirby Yates to a 1/5 type deal, hoping for a rebound, and sign someone like Brandon Morrow to a non-guaranteed deal, likewise hoping for a rebound.  Sandoval, who has pitched very well as a reliever, can be converted to relief.  And given the sheer volume of relievers, I'm sure he can probably find another at some modest commitment of like a 1/2 type deal.  So - Yates, Mayers, Pena, Buttrey, Ramirez, Sandoval, Morrow*, and another low-cost signing.  We'd have Reyes, Reed, Naughton, etc as further depth too.  The best bullpen?  No, but there's good potential there, and if our rotation is Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Ohtani*, then I'd argue that we're in pretty good shape pitching wise.

I do hope we can get Bauer, but I guess it depends on how much Arte is willing to spend. This offseason is different than any other offseason we've ever had.

[Hubs]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think you're 10-15 mil over on your estimate.  

I’m maybe 5 high there. Again, the $30 figure was just picked out of thin air. The salary (not luxury tax) for 2020 was 71 which at 37% would’ve equated to $191M. That’s an uptick from earlier years, since they added Rendon. I don’t expect them to be in the 170’s actual payroll I expect them to be in the 190’s.

 

[tdawg87]

46 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I’m maybe 5 high there. Again, the $30 figure was just picked out of thin air. The salary (not luxury tax) for 2020 was 71 which at 37% would’ve equated to $191M. That’s an uptick from earlier years, since they added Rendon. I don’t expect them to be in the 170’s actual payroll I expect them to be in the 190’s.

 

I respect your takes but your figures are also pulled out of thin air.

[Hubs]

41 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I respect your takes but your figures are also pulled out of thin air.

I agree. I just think the common consensus at around $30 Is just based on one or two peoples takes, we don’t have any idea what they’re gonna spend. 
 

Realistically to contend they need either an Ace, or two solid pitchers. They don’t need three. They have depth pieces in Barria, Sandoval, Naughton, and have a rotation that currently has Bundy, Heaney and Canning in it. Ohtani is the wild card. I’m more comfortable grabbing the Ace on the market and going with the depth guys and Ohtani as my 5th and 6th starter. 
 

They also need two solid bullpen arms at least.

This is all going to cost money.

Arte will spend.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Hubs said:

I’m maybe 5 high there. Again, the $30 figure was just picked out of thin air. The salary (not luxury tax) for 2020 was 71 which at 37% would’ve equated to $191M. That’s an uptick from earlier years, since they added Rendon. I don’t expect them to be in the 170’s actual payroll I expect them to be in the 190’s.

 

one of us is wrong.  spotrac has us at 178m for 2020 (66m).  I don't remember us getting to 190m pre covid.  total payroll is somewhere around 150m right now depending on where the arb numbers end up.  A couple sources like the oc reg and LAT also had us around the 180m mark.  

since Arte said that payroll isn't going down, I'll give him the the benefit of the doubt and assume it will be around 180m or maybe a touch higher.  

So I think we've got about 30+ mil to spend from where we're at.  That could easily get us Bauer (assuming he make a bit less than his overall AAV for 2021), a solid platoon catcher, a couple of solid pen arms, and perhaps an ok platoon RFer.  I think how much is spend on the pen will be very much related to how much we spend on starters because I think Minasian is going use every last bit of Arte's budget.  

I expect, though, that outside of Bauer or maybe an elite reliever, everything else will be 1yr deals.  

Again, I think the Iglesias deal is very indicative of how Minasian will proceed.  We are talking about payroll but mostly focused on 2021 yet any payroll discussions need to include 2022 and 2023 at least.  

[BTH]

I don't know how much money Arte Moreno will spend, but he better spend money.

He's currently paying 2 GM's (Minasian/Eppler) and 2 Managers (Maddon/Ausmus), while only employing 1 GM and 1 Manager.

You better be willing to spend on players if you're paying two former high-ranking employees to not work for you.

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I don't know how much money Arte Moreno will spend, but he better spend money.

He's currently paying 2 GM's (Minasian/Eppler) and 2 Managers (Maddon/Ausmus), while only employing 1 GM and 1 Manager.

You better be willing to spend on players if you're paying two former high-ranking employees to not work for you.

no offense but that's not really how businesses usually work.  

[Warfarin]

15 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I don't know how much money Arte Moreno will spend, but he better spend money.

He's currently paying 2 GM's (Minasian/Eppler) and 2 Managers (Maddon/Ausmus), while only employing 1 GM and 1 Manager.

You better be willing to spend on players if you're paying two former high-ranking employees to not work for you.

What I hope he does, first and foremost, is spend significantly more on FO infrastructure, scouting, analytics, and medical technology.  The elite teams / front offices have a lot of money invested in this.  Obviously for us, the fans, we don't really see front office payroll, scouting payroll, etc.  But I do hope he prioritizes these areas, as those things are what will likely lead to the greatest impact on this team for years to come.

[Hubs]

39 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

one of us is wrong.  spotrac has us at 178m for 2020 (66m).  I don't remember us getting to 190m pre covid.  total payroll is somewhere around 150m right now depending on where the arb numbers end up.  A couple sources like the oc reg and LAT also had us around the 180m mark.  

since Arte said that payroll isn't going down, I'll give him the the benefit of the doubt and assume it will be around 180m or maybe a touch higher.  

So I think we've got about 30+ mil to spend from where we're at.  That could easily get us Bauer (assuming he make a bit less than his overall AAV for 2021), a solid platoon catcher, a couple of solid pen arms, and perhaps an ok platoon RFer.  I think how much is spend on the pen will be very much related to how much we spend on starters because I think Minasian is going use every last bit of Arte's budget.  

I expect, though, that outside of Bauer or maybe an elite reliever, everything else will be 1yr deals.  

Again, I think the Iglesias deal is very indicative of how Minasian will proceed.  We are talking about payroll but mostly focused on 2021 yet any payroll discussions need to include 2022 and 2023 at least.  

Cots has them at 71 for last season but could be a mistake. I have them at 121 right now for 5 guys. another 7 (heaney, Bundy, ohtani, Mayers, ramirez, pena, and Stassi) takes them to 141-145. Add the club control locks at they are at 150.

So I’m With you here I just think he’s gonna end up pushing payroll to around 190-195.

 

[tdawg87]

The problem is, Arte does spend. A lot. We just want him to basically say "Fuck it" and go past the tax threshold, which he clearly will not ever do. 

He's going to have a payroll in the 180-190 million range. Again. I'd say he spends quite a bit. We've just been spending on the wrong guys.