Jo Adell

[Angel]

I honestly don't think Adell was going to hit AAA pitcher very well this year anyways.  The difference between majors and AAA is pretty small.  However, at least he wouldn't be undermining his potential long term career stats.  He's now about waist deep underground and has to climb out of the hole next year.

[Angelsjunky]

50 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

This is another one of those narratives that just isn't true. Yes he was not "Mike Trout" good in his first call up, but he was pretty clearly already a major league caliber player.

I agree, but I'm not sure what narrative you think I'm spinning. I said Trout was "pretty bad," but also said in the post just before the one you quoted that Adell was terrible. Or to put it another way:

Trout 2011 >> Adell 2020

but...Trout was still "pretty bad" in 2011. That's my point - that great players don't always start great, but need to break in. 

I don't think Adell will be great, but the range of likely outcomes is still positive and could be very positive, if he develops as hoped.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, Angel said:

I honestly don't think Adell was going to hit AAA pitcher very well this year anyways.  The difference between majors and AAA is pretty small.  However, at least he wouldn't be undermining his potential long term career stats.  He's now about waist deep underground and has to climb out of the hole next year.

AAA is where you see junk.  The guys with the stuff and the big benders tend to spend very little time there -- those guys have the K rates to move to the big time.   AAA is where guys who need to mix it up, pitch to their spots and work the corners tend to be -- those are the guys that will help Adell get to the next step.   Once he can spot a FB from the rest of the stuff... the game will get easier for him and his insane physical tools will come into play.

[Angelsjunky]

42 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You think wrong, but I was only speaking for myself and I should have stressed that.

I was vocal about him not being close to ready BEFORE he came up.   His defense was probably worse than I would have expected but he was playing RF and not CF and it's not like I didn't listen to them call him butchering plays in RF during the first ST.

But yes, I expected him to do poorly.  I was pretty adamant about his issues telling balls from strikes and his inability to turn on FBs at AAA -- check the "Let Adell play" thread.  Pull rate on FBs is one of the biggest indicators that a hitter is ready to take the next step, it allows us to determine whether a hitter can identify and then actually hit the FB.  It all starts there.   Adell was well below league average, even after taking his age into consideration.  It's also why I argued that Marsh was likely further along and more likely to succeed, or rather, be less awful.

Again, I should have been clear I was speaking for myself, only.

It's also why I wasn't jumping off ledges when he tanked.

Yes, I agree and agreed with you. He wasn't ready - I think most of us agreed on that. But I'm just quibbling with your use of "exactly"...I don't think anyone predicted he would be this bad, with bat or glove.

And yeah, I've also been saying that Marsh will do better.

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, I agree and agreed with you. He wasn't ready - I think most of us agreed on that. But I'm just quibbling with your use of "exactly"...I don't think anyone predicted he would be this bad, with bat or glove.

And yeah, I've also been saying that Marsh will do better.

Fair enough -- I also didn't predict he would be any level of bad so...  maybe it was too "exact" a phrase .   

Quibbles aside, I think many of us saw what was coming -- I think it's why most of us aren't all that worried about him.

It will be fun to see both Marsh and Adell in AAA next year and watch how they both do.  

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

54 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree, but I'm not sure what narrative you think I'm spinning. I said Trout was "pretty bad," but also said in the post just before the one you quoted that Adell was terrible. Or to put it another way:

Trout 2011 >> Adell 2020

but...Trout was still "pretty bad" in 2011. That's my point - that great players don't always start great, but need to break in. 

I don't think Adell will be great, but the range of likely outcomes is still positive and could be very positive, if he develops as hoped.

I don't think your description adequately describes the chasm of difference between the two players. There is a 2 fWar difference between call up Mike Trout and call up Jo Adell in about 130 PAs for both. That's about a 9 war difference over 600 PAs, or rather the difference between MVP level Mike Trout and Michael Hermosillo.

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Angel said:

I honestly don't think Adell was going to hit AAA pitcher very well this year anyways.  The difference between majors and AAA is pretty small.  However, at least he wouldn't be undermining his potential long term career stats.  He's now about waist deep underground and has to climb out of the hole next year.

First I have heard several times that the jump from AAA to Majors is big.  If the jump was small woildnt players such as Ward and Walsh smashed immediately?  If it was small why would journeem sign million dollar contracts and teams not go with AAAA players at minimum wage.

Second why do we care about his career stats?

[AngelsFaninGA]

With Eppler gone I think Adell almost certainly gets traded. Already ready to be disappointed by the return. 

[Angel]

Everyone has their opinions storm, there are no easy answers to that question really, Walsh and Ward HAVE hit MLB pitching and it didn't take them that long, and they didn't look nearly as lost as Adell in the process.   He has a .296 K/PA, 38K/128PA that's a strikeout 30% of the time... that would come out to almost 200 strikeouts in a full season, unacceptable.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Angel said:

Everyone has their opinions storm, there are no easy answers to that question really, Walsh and Ward HAVE hit MLB pitching and it didn't take them that long, and they didn't look nearly as lost as Adell in the process.  

Bro....Ward had nearly 200 MLB PAs before this season and 778 PAs at AAA...  Walsh had 652 PAs in AAA and Almost 200 in the minors.

Adell has had all of 131 PAs in AAA...   Of course he looked lost....

[Angel]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Bro....Ward had nearly 200 MLB PAs before this season and 778 PAs at AAA...  Walsh had 652 PAs in AAA and Almost 200 in the minors.

Adell has had all of 131 PAs in AAA...   Of course he looked lost....

Where do you see Adell in 3 years?  All-Star?  Is he even playing for the Angels?

I say no to both.  This kind of bad start can really be the thing that either turns them on or completely off, we've had many prospects like this before, remember?

[Stradling]

Here are Taylor Wards first two cracks at MLB in his age 24 and 25 seasons.  Not much different than Adell’s at 21.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Angel said:

Where do you see Adell in 3 years?  All-Star?  Is he even playing for the Angels?

I say no to both.

If he isn’t on the Angels it will be because he was traded for a very nice piece.  He doesn’t have to be an All Star to be a very valuable piece.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Angel said:

Where do you see Adell in 3 years?  All-Star?  Is he even playing for the Angels?

I say no to both.

Have you read my Adell posts?  I'm one of the people that said he wasn't close to ready and wasn't calling for him to be brought up.  As far as to whether or not he's still an Angel, new GM so no telling what direction this team may go in.

[Angel]

Okay so Ward figured it out, it's not that likely to happen again with a different person.

[stormngt]

16 minutes ago, Angel said:

Everyone has their opinions storm, there are no easy answers to that question really, Walsh and Ward HAVE hit MLB pitching and it didn't take them that long, and they didn't look nearly as lost as Adell in the process.   He has a .296 K/PA, 38K/128PA that's a strikeout 30% of the time... that would come out to almost 200 strikeouts in a full season, unacceptable.

My comment was on major leagues being only a small jump from AAA.

[Stradling]

Just now, Angel said:

Okay so Ward figured it out, it's not that likely to happen again with a different person.

You’re kidding right?  

[Angel]

4 minutes ago, stormngt said:

My comment was on major leagues being only a small jump from AAA.

My point is that Ward and Walsh have translated from AAA to MLB rather quickly so it can't be that dramatic.  Thus I think Adell would have struggled mightily in either league this season, if there were minor league games.  He's having trouble making contact, period.

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Angel said:

My point is that Ward and Walsh have translated from AAA to MLB rather quickly so it can't be that dramatic.

In 6 years Adell will be Walsh's age.   Do you at all believe their extended stays in AAA helped in their development?  What's the number of at bats you're willing to give a guy before you label them a bust?

[Angel]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

You’re kidding right?  

Ward is an outlier

[Angel]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

In 6 years Adell will be Walsh's age.   Do you at all believe their extended stays in AAA helped in their development?  What's the number of at bats you're willing to give a guy before you label them a bust?

Adell has a lot of value, I agree.  I believe I see less value then I am led to believe, a trade in this case makes sense on my end, a slightly lesser return in the pitching department could get a team to bite.

Marsh in my opinion will translate to the bigs quickly and successfully.  His lefty power bat and defensive prowess being a big reason why.

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, Angel said:

Adell has a lot of value, I agree.  I believe I see less value then I am led to believe, a trade in this case makes sense on my end even for a slightly lesser return in the pitching department.

Lol, did you just change topics on me and go with a completely different argument?  Lol, I'm not even mad, that was pretty funny.  Its like you got bored with what we were talking about and just said "fuck it, lets talk about this instead"....  

[Angel]

Very true, I flipped the head on that bit**

 

But to directly answer your question 'inside Pitch'

I think 100 ABs is more than enough to know if a hitter is going to be lost or intermittent success showing improvement, and in a normal circumstance he would have been be sent down 50 ABs ago.  I think lost is a good word for his current situation.

 

[Stradling]

It isn’t an outlier that a young player gets better over time.  It’s an outlier when they are successful when they come up to the bigs.  

[Angel]

He's an outlier in that he's a major league success for the Angels.