Free Agent Faceoff: Wood Vs. Walker

[Chuck]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/free-agent-faceoff-wood-vs-walker.html

The market for starting pitchers has shrunk substantially since free agency opened at the beginning of November. Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels have all found contracts. Jake Odorizzi, whom MLBTR ranked as the game’s 10th-best free agent at the outset of the winter, accepted a qualifying offer from Minnesota. The Twins also re-signed Michael Pineda and just picked up two more starters in Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.

With all of those pitchers and several others (Kyle Gibson, Tanner Roark and Julio Teheran, to name some) off the board, it looks like a pretty bare-bones group at this point. So, if you’re still banking on finding a No. 1, 2 or 3 type of starter in free agency, you may be out of luck. Even a surefire No. 4 or 5 seems like a lot to ask right now, but there are at least a few unsigned starters with upside who won’t cost a bank-breaking amount to sign. Left-hander Alex Wood and righty Taijuan Walker are two examples.

Between Wood and Walker, the former wins this battle in a landslide as far as major league track record goes. The 28-year-old flew under the radar to some degree from 2013-18, an 803 1/3-inning stretch in which he combined for a sterling 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate with the Braves and Dodgers. Thanks to that run, the Reds acquired Wood last offseason with the expectation he’d give them front-line production. Instead, though, back problems limited the relatively soft-tossing Wood to seven starts and 35 2/3 frames of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP ball.  Since then, there hasn’t been any reported interest on MLBTR’s pages in Wood, who has quickly gone from coveted starter to buy-low candidate.

Walker’s in a similar position – someone who could be a high-reward pickup at a reasonable cost. Now 27, Walker was an extremely hyped prospect with Seattle, which chose him 43rd overall in 2017. However, Walker didn’t prove to be irreplaceable to the Mariners over a fairly small sample of action, and they wound up trading him to the Diamondbacks in a late-2016 blockbuster.

Walker and his ~94 mph fastball were quite effective in his first season in Arizona – 3.49 ERA/4.04 FIP with 8.35 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent grounder rate in 157 1/3 innings – but he has barely pitched since. He tossed 13 innings in 2018 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that May, and totaled just one frame last season (in the D-backs’ final game) after shoulder injuries stunted his TJS recovery. Arizona then cut Walker loose via non-tender instead of paying him a projected $5MM-plus in arbitration. Since then, at least one team – Walker’s old employer in Seattle – has shown interest in signing him.

Walker and Wood appear as if they’d be sensible additions for the Mariners or any other team that wants to take a back-of-the-rotation risk on a short-term deal. Odds are that neither player will secure a multiyear guarantee, though a one-season contract with a club option for 2021 could be a worthwhile gamble. Wood seems likely to rake in more money (MLBTR predicted he’d get a one-year, $8MM pact), but does that make him a better bet than Walker? Which of the two would you sign?

 

[Chuck]

Do you guys think the Angels sign either of these guys or just shoot for a better arm via a trade? 

Or both?

[Drink More Yakult]

I think it makes sense to get one of the two, especially if we are going to save Ohtani for a month or two to give him more meaningful innings. That would open a spot in the rotation and let us see if Wood or Walker start to pan out.

[beatlesrule]

I want Eppler to trade for a better arm. I think he will probably sign one of those guys to a 1 year deal. I will go with his history and that's what he pretty much always does with SP. I say package Walsh and whoever else and get an ace or #2 SP. Yes, even Adell should be included in the right deal.

[Stradling]

If costs don’t come down I’d probably lean towards Walker.  I just see him as the healthier option. 

[hangin n wangin]

I want both but that may be ridiculous. I just like the idea of having a lot of depth and these two pitchers are good arms when healthy. They shouldn’t cost too much and shouldn’t get anything more than one year deals, so if we don’t get at least one of them, I would be pretty baffled at wtf Eppler is doing. I think both of these pitchers are better than Pineda/Gibson and we may able to be get them for less per year. So yea, this is something I hope we do after all the pitching we have missed out on.

[ettin]

35 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Do you guys think the Angels sign either of these guys or just shoot for a better arm via a trade? 

Or both?

Trade. Neither of these two are terrible possibilities, particularly if we go with a six-man rotation but we need a better quality pitcher overall and I don't think either of these two quite fit the bill. We need at least a #3 type preferably with #2 or #1 upside (this is harder).

EDIT: If we do go with a six-man rotation I'd be fine with either one of these guys if our other acquisition comes through a trade for a #2/#3 type.

[Stradling]

16 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I want both but that may be ridiculous. I just like the idea of having a lot of depth and these two pitchers are good arms when healthy. They shouldn’t cost too much and shouldn’t get anything more than one year deals, so if we don’t get at least one of them, I would be pretty baffled at wtf Eppler is doing. I think both of these pitchers are better than Pineda/Gibson and we may able to be get them for less per year. So yea, this is something I hope we do after all the pitching we have missed out on.

Problem with both is that would mean Canning starts the season in the minors.  

Ohtani

Heaney

Teheran

Bundy

Walker

Wood

Then depth of Barria, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval, Peters and Pena.  I’d have to think that when we sign a catcher we will see Peters, or Pena released.  

[Pancake Bear]

I think it would make sense to take a flyer on one of them, especially if the trade market seems stalled. 

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Problem with both is that would mean Canning starts the season in the minors.

I'm not that concerned about it. Canning is young, and Ohtani is apparently going to have his pitching debut for 2020 pushed back a bit from the start of the year. There will inevitably be injuries. I figure we can bring in one more arm and not worry too much immediately. 

[hangin n wangin]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Problem with both is that would mean Canning starts the season in the minors.  

Ohtani

Heaney

Teheran

Bundy

Walker

Wood

Then depth of Barria, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval, Peters and Pena.  I’d have to think that when we sign a catcher we will see Peters, or Pena released.  

 

 

You’re right and I do want Canning to get his shot. But I think it would make us better as a team and that’s what I want the most. I just really hope we get one of them. 

[UndertheHalo]

I mean all things being equal why not just sign both.  I’d give them both a 2 year deal.  2 years and 12 million for both.  Throw in some incentives to make the deals worth potentially 20 million. 
 

ideally guys like Suarez and Sandoval don’t see the majors next year. 

[Jay]

30 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If costs don’t come down I’d probably lean towards Walker.  I just see him as the healthier option. 

Both have injury problems.

If I have to pick one I'll take the LHP

 

[ettin]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Problem with both is that would mean Canning starts the season in the minors.  

Ohtani

Heaney

Teheran

Bundy

Walker

Wood

Then depth of Barria, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval, Peters and Pena.  I’d have to think that when we sign a catcher we will see Peters, or Pena released.  

More likely Mayers or Mejia first, these guys have options left. But it is not that big of a delta between them so who knows.

[UndertheHalo]

I suspect we offered Garett Richards more then the 12 million for 2 years I’m talking about (guaranteed anyway) and the Angels spent almost an entire decade watching him discover new ways to get hurt.  Both Wood and Walker are high upside guys who are younger then Richards.  And at least in Woods case, I’ve read that the recovery has gone well. 

Edited January 2, 2020 by UndertheHalo

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, ettin said:

More likely Mayers or Mejia first, these guys have options left. But it is not that big of a delta between them so who knows.

But they are both on the 40 man roster, so if I understand it correctly you can’t just send them down, they will be left unprotected.  

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Jay said:

Both have injury problems.

If I have to pick one I'll take the LHP

 

Walker before the TJ injury averaged 27 starts and 154 innings over the previous seasons.  Wood seems to have injuries most years.  Also Walker is 26, two years younger than Wood.  That being said I would be fine with taking a flyer on one.

[ettin]

23 minutes ago, Stradling said:

But they are both on the 40 man roster, so if I understand it correctly you can’t just send them down, they will be left unprotected.  

Options just mean that you can send the player down without exposing them to waivers. Mayers and Mejia have no options so yes they will be unprotected and could be claimed. Either way, whether you go with the option or non-option players, they have to be removed from the 40-man roster to make room. Peters and Pena still have at least one or more options but even if they are optioned they are still on the 40-man roster, thus the reason I say that Mayers or Mejia are the more likely choices unless Eppler and company feel that Peters or Pena are better choices to designate.

[Second Base]

If either are with signing, and if Eppler targets either of them, it's a fair bet he'll fail to secure their services.

Anyone worth having, Billy fails to bring in. Let's hope Teheran and Bundy buck that trend. 

But seriously, I'd be all over Alex Wood right now. Our pitching staff SUCKS at the top. Because there is no top. There's just Ohtani hoping he can stay healthy and Canning hoping he can develop. 

I'd offer Wood one year, ten million, with team option at a second year at ten million. Meaning if he's healthy and back to his old form, Wood would give the Angels front or mid rotation production for 2/20. It's a steal. And he'd set himself up nicely for a return to free agency at a decently young age and secure a larger deal. If he sucks, it only costs you a Harvey-esque 10 million. 

But I do think his lower velocity and ground ball tendencies, in conjunction with his relative youth, could make him an inexpensive yet more productive version of Dallas Keuchel.

 

[Junkballer]

Sign either one so as to retain prospect availability at the trade deadline to go after a top of the rotation arm for a playoff run.

[Angel Oracle]

Shoulder issues tend to linger on, pass on Walker.

Wood averaged 135 innings from 2013-2018, including 152 innings in 2017--2018.   
 
Back issue > shoulder issue.

Take the flyer on Wood.

[Stradling]

30 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Shoulder issues tend to linger on, pass on Walker.

Wood averaged 135 innings from 2013-2018, including 152 innings in 2017--2018.   
 
Back issue > shoulder issue.

Take the flyer on Wood.

Does Walker have shoulder issues in addition to his TJ surgery?  If so hard pass.  I was unaware of shoulder issues with him.  

[Blarg]

Both of these pitchers waste a roster spot. 

[Hubs]

I like Alex Wood, as he pitched well in 2018. Walker didn't. I'd offer Wood a major league 1 year deal with a 1 year mutual option with a nice buyout. Something like 1/8 with a 12M Mutual Option for year two, 2 M buyout if he exercises and the team does not.

Wood can also pitch out of the pen, if he isn't healthy enough to give them length.

I'd also consider a true 6 man rotation, where they pitch mostly on the same day of the week, depending on the days off, and in weeks they have 7 games then I'd bring up a guy from the minors. With all of the health / innings concern, they could then easily limit innings. No one would approach 200 IP,  but if you get 27 starts and average 6.2 IP you'd be around 180 IP.

They can also replicate the 5.5 man rotation, but a 6 man rotation, may work better. Especially as most starters would be available out of the pen in between starts, particularly when there are many days off.

 

[Stradling]

52 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Both of these pitchers waste a roster spot. 

I’d agree with that if these dudes weren’t currently on the 40 man roster: