Why trading for pitching might take awhile

[Pancake Bear]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Why were the Angels as willing as they were to let Nolan Ryan walk? Why did the Astros let Morton go without so much as a qualifying offer? Why did the Dishes let both Greinke and Darvish get away when they could've easily afforded both? 

Ryan: Angels were cheap. 

Astros: Maybe they figured he was declining? I dunno. Didn’t follow it closely. 

Dishes: They pursued Greinke, but the Dbacks offered him stupid money. Darvish, they didn’t feel like he was a good fit was my impression. 

[bloodbrother]

Ryu is not an ace unless you think there's about 20 aces in MLB right now

[ettin]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I’ll mention this again, if we sign two expensive arms it’s basically saying goodbye to Simmons after this season because of the escalating penalties for going over the luxury tax. 

Disagree with this completely. Even if we go over the CBT threshold it won't be by that much probably and the penalties will be minimal and it will reset after 2021. There is no reason we can't spend and eat a mild tax penalty and reboot in two years in my opinion.

Simmons is likely to get a 5 year, $70M or so contract, maybe more, maybe less. He is worth it for all of the reasons you are well aware of Strad, I just don't think that is the issue if we get two expensive arms.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, ettin said:

Disagree with this completely. Even if we go over the CBT threshold it won't be by that much probably and the penalties will be minimal and it will reset after 2021. There is no reason we can't spend and eat a mild tax penalty and reboot in two years in my opinion.

Simmons is likely to get a 5 year, $70M or so contract, maybe more, maybe less. He is worth it for all of the reasons you are well aware of Strad, I just don't think that is the issue if we get two expensive arms.

I hope you’re right but so far Arte has chosen not to. 

[Pancake Bear]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I hope you’re right but so far Arte has chosen not to. 

I don’t think Arte sees the luxury tax threshold as prohibitive, but he does clearly have a limit. The limit is plainly higher this year if they really are looking at two more pitchers, and it will likely be over that threshold. I assume whatever taxes are involved there are factored in to their budget. I don’t think he sees it as a line he absolutely will not cross, in fact I think he probably sneak just over it this year. 

And it makes sense, honestly. If you look where we are, Trout’s window is shrinking. So is Moreno’s as far as that goes. That means if you want to win, you’ll have to push budget just a bit in the short term. It appears that is what he is in fact doing. 

[ukyah]

4 hours ago, Lou said:

not if Ryu costs you $30M/yr 

that's the second time i've seen you say that. obviously, i missed some report that says that's what he's looking for. is that confirmed, or just sports journalist hogwash?

clearly, i'd agree that he's not worth 30 million per year. in that case, go madbum and keuchel.

[ukyah]

21 minutes ago, ettin said:

Disagree with this completely. Even if we go over the CBT threshold it won't be by that much probably and the penalties will be minimal and it will reset after 2021. There is no reason we can't spend and eat a mild tax penalty and reboot in two years in my opinion.

Simmons is likely to get a 5 year, $70M or so contract, maybe more, maybe less. He is worth it for all of the reasons you are well aware of Strad, I just don't think that is the issue if we get two expensive arms.

i wonder if others agree if this seems accurate.

i think he's more likely to get a three year contract maxing out at 45. maybe i'm way off base. i don't see a bidding war driving up his price. he's not the sexy FA like lindor, he's more like the conservative fallback option. that's if the angels let him hit FA. i'd bet they lock him up before then at something that looks like a team friendly, but fair deal for both sides.

[Hubs]

20 minutes ago, ukyah said:

i wonder if others agree if this seems accurate.

i think he's more likely to get a three year contract maxing out at 45. maybe i'm way off base. i don't see a bidding war driving up his price. he's not the sexy FA like lindor, he's more like the conservative fallback option. that's if the angels let him hit FA. i'd bet they lock him up before then at something that looks like a team friendly, but fair deal for both sides.

I think they’ll give him the QO. And expect to pay about that on a 4 year deal. They may also just hit him with QO and expect him to leave using Fletcher or Rengifo at SS. But I don’t know about that. We’ll see next off-season 

[ettin]

19 minutes ago, ukyah said:

i wonder if others agree if this seems accurate.

i think he's more likely to get a three year contract maxing out at 45. maybe i'm way off base. i don't see a bidding war driving up his price. he's not the sexy FA like lindor, he's more like the conservative fallback option. that's if the angels let him hit FA. i'd bet they lock him up before then at something that looks like a team friendly, but fair deal for both sides.

Cozart received a 3-year, $38M, basically $13M per season. Simmons is a superior defender and has performed better offensively a bit. Why should Andrelton take a 3-year offer if he can just play out 2020 and hit free agency where he will pick up a 4 or 5 year deal?

Pay him what he is worth now which is about 5/70 give or take. Maybe 4/60? Maybe more even like 5/75? It's in that ballpark right now I think and the Angels need a long-term solution at SS just like they did at 3B and the only better player out there is Lindor so I just don't see the Eppler going any other route than those two, thus the extension he will very likely get for the above amounts in my opinion. I could be wrong of course, I have been plenty of times before!

[ettin]

I would note too that Eppler places a heavy emphasis on defense at SS which is why we got Simmons in the first place, so why would he change his opinion now?

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Bumgarner is a 2, Keuchel a 3. Heaney and Bundy are 4’s. For the record Ryu and Price are 2’s. Kluber is a borderline 1/2. Ohtani can be a 1, but he can also be the best DH in the game. Sooo...

I don’t think Either Keuchel or Bumgarner slips to a #4 for at least three more seasons. And I don’t think Bumgarner will.

• Bumgarner: 3.90 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 107 ERA+, 8.3 H9, 1.3 HR9, 1.9 BB9, 8.8 K9
• Heaney ‘18: 4.15 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 101 ERA+, 8.6 H9, 1.4 HR9, 2.3 BB9, 9.0 K9
• Keuchel ‘18: 3.74 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 111 ERA+, 9.3 H9, 0.8 HR9, 2.6 BB9, 6.7 K9

Used the last full season for each. They really don’t look all that different to me. 

Bumgarner’s in a pretty clear decline and at his age, it’s concerning. He’s not bad, but, it’s a clear decline, like we saw with Weaver and Felix. Take him out of the NL West and LAD, SFG, SD stadiums and replace the pitcher with a DH, and it’s pretty dicey time expect #2 production from him. 

• Bumgarner ‘17 - ‘19: 3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 72 GS, 448 IP
• Bumgarner ‘14 - ‘16: 2.88 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 99 GS, 662 IP

Even his durability took a step back in recent years. 

Homer Bailey had a lower WHIP than Keuchel last season too. Our defense is improved and better than Atlanta, but Keuchel has his own set of concerns.

Don’t get me wrong - I’d love to have one of them, but tying both up for 3-5 years averaging ~$40m AAV between the two is asking for trouble. Get one of them and find another with more upside or better value.

It’s not even really the money that bothers me - it’ll be the years. We need those guys in 2020, 2021, yes, but we should be able to turn to young arms no later than 2022. Which is why I think Keuchel is likelier - he’ll be cheaper and have less commitment, no QO - and the Angels will then either supplement him by trading for an arm with control still in arb like Boyd or Gray, or trade for a rental like Ray, Quintana, Stroman or sign someone like Wood, Miley, maybe Teheran. Perhaps they add a vet reliever or two. Still a great offseason.

Edited December 15, 2019 by totdprods

[Warfarin]

33 minutes ago, totdprods said:

• It’s not even really the money that bothers me - it’ll be the years. We need those guys in 2020, 2021, yes, but we should be able to turn to young arms no later than 2022. Which is why I think Keuchel is likelier - he’ll be cheaper and have less commitment, no QO - and the Angels will then either supplement him by trading for an arm with control still in arb like Boyd or Gray, or trade for a rental like Ray, Quintana, Stroman or sign someone like Wood, Miley, maybe Teheran. Perhaps they add a vet reliever or two. Still a great offseason.

I agree with this.  I think the Angels will avoid signing two FA SPs, and instead sign one (either Keuchel or Ryu) and trade for another.

Ideally, I'd like to swing a deal for Ray and sign Ryu.  Sign Jason Castro to a 2/10 deal.  

Lineup:  1B LaStella, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, 3B Rendon, LF Upton, RF Goodwin, C Castro, SS Simmons, 2B Fletcher

Bench:  1B/DH Pujols, 1B/3B Thaiss, IF Rengifo, C Stassi, OF Hermosillo

Rotation:  Ryu, Ray, Ohtani, Bundy, Heaney, Canning

This would be a really competitive team and a fantastic offseason, IMO.  

[beatlesrule]

LOL at Pujols being a bench player.

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, beatlesrule said:

LOL at Pujols being a bench player.

He’s a below average hitter, a very slow runner, a bottom of the league defensive 1B, and he’ll be (at least) 40 years old going into next season. 

Most guys would be in a bench role younger than that with better performance. Only reason he hasn’t is his name. Still, there has to come a time for it if they’re serious about competing. If he plays every day and bats 5th or higher, they aren’t serious about competing.

[beatlesrule]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

He’s a below average hitter, a very slow runner, a bottom of the league defensive 1B, and he’ll be (at least) 40 years old going into next season. 

Most guys would be in a bench role younger than that with better performance. Only reason he hasn’t is his name. Still, there has to come a time for it if they’re serious about competing. If he plays every day and bats 5th or higher, they aren’t serious about competing.

29 million reasons he will be the starting 1st baseman.

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, beatlesrule said:

29 million reasons he will be the stating 1st baseman.

Sunk cost fallacy. Look it up. 

[Warfarin]

6 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

He’s a below average hitter, a very slow runner, a bottom of the league defensive 1B, and he’ll be (at least) 40 years old going into next season. 

Most guys would be in a bench role younger than that with better performance. Only reason he hasn’t is his name. Still, there has to come a time for it if they’re serious about competing. If he plays every day and bats 5th or higher, they aren’t serious about competing.

Yes, this.  Pujols, at his age, will probably spend a good chunk of time on the bench.  I expect he'll start at DH when Ohtani is resting around his starts, and he'll also start vs LHP at 1B, with LaStella probably getting a good amount of those days off.  So, Pujols will probably start 3-4 times or so a week.  Still a number of starts, but not an everyday player.

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yes, this.  Pujols, at his age, will probably spend a good chunk of time on the bench.  I expect he'll start at DH when Ohtani is resting around his starts, and he'll also start vs LHP at 1B, with LaStella probably getting a good amount of those days off.  So, Pujols will probably start 3-4 times or so a week.  Still a number of starts, but not an everyday player.

What people ignore:

Ausmus said explicitly last year that Albert had to earn his time. 

While he played most of the time, that was because of injuries and the guys who were healthy weren’t all that great. He wasn’t much worse than other options. 

Assuming health? It’ll be Fletcher or La Stella at 2B. No way they platoon since both were miles ahead of Pujols last year. This isn’t Pujols playing over Walsh or Thaiss. This is a .250 avg .300 obp guy playing over a .300 avg .350 obp guy. He’ll play probably when Ohtani is unavailable. If he plays more than that, it means something went very wrong with the offense or we have idiots in charge. 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Pujols lineup spot for starts last year.

#3 16 games

#4 46 games

#5 46 games

#6 19 games

Ohtani and Upton missed time. With their health plus Rendon, I think he will be mostly #6 this year. Maybe even #7 if the lineup performs.

Ideally he wouldn't see a lot of time, but realistically, he probably ends up with ~400 ABs next year. Though maybe that's my Scioscia prediction. We'll see with Maddon!

[vladdy#27]

55 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Don’t get me wrong - I’d love to have one of them, but tying both up for 3-5 years averaging ~$40m AAV between the two is asking for trouble. Get one of them and find another with more upside or better value.

Something I have thought of is signing one starting pitcher now and evaluating where we are at.

We need a lot to go right in our rotation to have a shot.

Ohtani starting 20+ games (assuming he's on an innings limit)
Heaney starting 25+ games and pitching like he did in 2018
Bundy hopefully improving on his 2019 numbers
Canning starting 25+ games
Whatever free agent pitcher we sign pitching to their potential

If 3 or 4 of these things don't happen and we end up having Sandoval/Saurez/Barria/Peters start 50-60+ games it likely wouldn't have mattered if we signed or traded for another guy. But let's say 4 of these things do happen. We can then trade for a starting pitcher that will solve the 5th spot. 

If we sign or make a trade now and 3 or 4 of these things end up not happening it's basically wasting money/prospects.

Head into the season with

Ryu/Bumgarner/Keuchel
Ohtani
Heaney
Canning
Bundy

Or if adding 2 guys is necessary sign one of the cheaper guys you mentioned Wood/Miley/Teheran and have Canning start the year in Triple-A (probably the route I would go)

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

If 3 or 4 of these things don't happen and we end up having Sandoval/Saurez/Barria/Peters start 50-60+ games it likely wouldn't have mattered if we signed or traded for another guy. But let's say 4 of these things do happen. We can then trade for a starting pitcher that will solve the 5th spot. 

If we sign or make a trade now and 3 or 4 of these things end up not happening it's basically wasting money/prospects.

Agree with you a lot here. Once Cole, Strasburg, and Wheeler all came off the board, and with Bundy and Rendon added, I started wondering the same. Is it worth it overcompensating now and getting two more arms, damn the cost, or maybe getting one more impact arm, a flier, and re-evaluating in-season?

Let’s say they add Keuchel and ugh, someone like Nova or Bailey as a cheap flier. And of course, Maldonado or Castro.

If you’re adding to the ‘20 Angels...

• Rendon 
• Keuchel 
• Bundy 
• Bailey/Nova
• Ohtani to the mound
• Castro/Maldonado
• Full season of Upton
• Full season of Simmons
• Full season of Middleton
• Some improvements from Thaiss, Rengifo, Canning, Barria, Suarez, Sandoval
• Potentially Adell...

Do you really need one more impact arm at $20m? At least, do you need one now? If this streak of horrible luck subsided even a bit in 2020, this team could be really good really fast.

[Docwaukee]

I'm really happy to hear Eppler's quote about not engaging in trades due to the prices not being worth it.  

I'm glad we got Rendon and it was quite admirable that Arte seemed willing to go after both him and Cole but it was a real risk to wait that process out and Billy missed on some serviceable options in lieu of Cole.    They needed Cole and wanted Rendon.  They're still a much better team than they were a few days ago but in order to get to the next level it's gonna take some patience and luck.  But at this point, they also need to stick to their guns even if it means that 2020 is an improvement year as opposed to a go for it year.  

You know why the Dogs aren't focused on Ryu?  Because he fat and his work ethic is for shit.  He's a very good pitcher, but who's to say he doesn't eat his way through what is likely his last big contract and become a back of the rotation starter?  It's truly a concern I have.  Madbum has red flags all over him as well.  

At some point, you have to weigh next years options to this years.  Two weeks ago there was no comparison.  Now there is.  If Ryu costs 4/90 then I'm probably waiting for Robbie Ray to become a FA.  If Dallas Keuchel costs 4/80 then I'm probably waiting for Trevor Bauer.  

They'll get a couple guys to help for 2020, but they may not be long term options and they may not help that much in 2020.