Why trading for pitching might take awhile

[Dtwncbad]

The market has to reset.  One big element is the price of high end starting pitching just went through the roof.  $20m a year was high end money and now it is $30-35m a year.

The result is now some established pitchers under contract suddenly have “equity” in their contract.  You are not just trading prospects for the performance of the pitcher you are acquiring, you also have to now pay for the “equity” in their contract.

Obviously the Angels are engaged in talks about Kluber. Kluber already had some complications to value due to his problems last season.  Clearly two teams could easily disagree on how much risk there is in his 2020 performance on the field.

But now you additionally have to agree on how much talent has to be sent to to Cleveland to compensate for the fact that his contract is very cheap compared to what the market just told everybody high end starters were worth.

The bottom line is whatever everyone thinks Kluber was worth in a trade before these monster free agent signings, he is probably worth one more player in the package now that it is established that his contract is cheap compared to his ability.

If the Angels swing a deal here and it seems like the Angels “overpaid” it just might be completely wrong to view it that way because the salary tiers just moved.

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Dtwncbad

[Mark68]

Yeah, but you also have to consider, in the case of someone like Kluber, how much he would earn on the open market were he a free agent now. Coming off this last year, he might only get offered a "pillow" contract due to the injury risk and his lack of effectiveness when he was actually on the mound.

 

Of course, the Indians have to be aware of the perception that they might be selling low if they trade Kluber now.

[Second Base]

Eppler said during the press conference he wouldn't be trading because the asking price are too high right now. That means he's more focused on the free agent market for starting pitchers. 

The only part here that concerns me is that the team is still operating under some notion that one more starting pitcher is enough, and that's just flat out wrong. 

The Angels need an ace and a mid rotation starter. Otherwise you've got guys like Andrew Heaney or Dylan Bundy as your #2/3 starter depending on how you view Ohtani, and that's just not going to cut it.

[floplag]

I think there are obviously many factors, but if a trade isnt going to happen soon we need to jump on one of the FA quickly.  We all know we need 2, grabbing one of them sets us up to help convince the other.

If i had to guess id say they were waiting on that in the hopes of locking down a trade to know exactly what they could afford or who to target... for example, Kluber isnt expensive comparatively, we could do both him AND Bumgardner with how Rendons deal was structured easy enough with possibly a little gravy.

Whereas if the trade is for someone more expensive, a la Price, we would probably be looking at more Kuechel than MadBum.  

If we could trade for Kluber and sign MadBum things get very interesting.  Kuechel is a great fit for the groundball prowess, but i dont think anyone would argue him being better than those 2 overall. 

[ukyah]

sign madbum and ryu. keep the prospects. 

[Lou]

25 minutes ago, ukyah said:

sign madbum and ryu. keep the prospects. 

not if Ryu costs you $30M/yr 

Edited December 15, 2019 by Lou

[hangin n wangin]

If Ryu is asking for 39 million a year, he needs to be shipped back to Korea.

[Pancake Bear]

35 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Eppler said during the press conference he wouldn't be trading because the asking price are too high right now. That means he's more focused on the free agent market for starting pitchers. 

The only part here that concerns me is that the team is still operating under some notion that one more starting pitcher is enough, and that's just flat out wrong. 

The Angels need an ace and a mid rotation starter. Otherwise you've got guys like Andrew Heaney or Dylan Bundy as your #2/3 starter depending on how you view Ohtani, and that's just not going to cut it.

There is no ace at this point. Kluber and Ryu have more high quality innings potential, but neither is an ace. If they pitch to potential, they’re maybe a mid range #1. Just as likely an out come with either is a 2-3. Keuchel could give you solid 3 to as much as a 2 in quality, but this ship has sailed on acquiring an ace. At this point we’re just trying to get as high of quality pitching with innings as we can. 

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, ukyah said:

sign madbum and ryu. keep the prospects. 

Bumgarner will cost a 3rd + slot money. That = prospects. Not in the same form, sure, but it isn’t just money for him. 

[BackUpTheTruck]

Do we even need to make a trade? Kluber makes 18 million for two more years, and no way the Angels should pay for all of Price's 32 million for 3 years.

Could we afford two of Ryu, Bumgarner, Keuchel if we backload the contracts?

Keep the prospects and trade them at the deadline if we need to.

[Lou]

12 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

If Ryu is asking for 39 million a year, he needs to be shipped back to Korea.

correction: $30M

 

[hangin n wangin]

Just now, Lou said:

correction: $30M

 

Either way....Korea.

[Hubs]

I’d imagine Bumgarner and Keuchel could be had for 37-48 a year, which is a big expense but doable. I’d think they sign one of these guys though not two.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

I’d imagine Bumgarner and Keuchel could be had for 37-48 a year, which is a big expense but doable. I’d think they sign one of these guys though not two.

Yeah, both seem to be tough to fit financially - we do still need a catcher, maybe one modestly priced reliever or bench piece.

Both of them are probably around $20m AAV - Keuchel a little less, Bumgarner a little more. The risk with signing both of them isn’t so much the money but the years. You tie up 2/5ths of the rotation with two guys who are really close to being expensive #4 types and if that happens as soon as 2020, you’ve really clogged up payroll in a bad way, and the rotation in a way that prohibits the kids from stepping in. 

So my guess is the Angels are aiming to sign one of them, probably fairly soon. Kluber being a similar AAV probably had him as the third option too, but with 1-2 years of control, was a little easier to think of pairing him in addition to one of these guys. I don’t think Ryu has ever been an option.

Once they sign Keuchel or Bumgarner, they can probably pump the brakes a bit and see where things go for the other arm until late winter. See if any bargains can be had in FA late winter, like Wood, Teheran, Miley, or wait and see which trade options open up as more teams sign FAs.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

There is no ace at this point. Kluber and Ryu have more high quality innings potential, but neither is an ace. If they pitch to potential, they’re maybe a mid range #1. Just as likely an out come with either is a 2-3. Keuchel could give you solid 3 to as much as a 2 in quality, but this ship has sailed on acquiring an ace. At this point we’re just trying to get as high of quality pitching with innings as we can. 

2.32 ERA, which led the NL, and finished 2nd in Cy Young voting in 2019. 1.97 ERA in 2018. But yeah.... Totally not an ace. 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Yeah, both seem to be tough to fit financially - we do still need a catcher, maybe one modestly priced reliever or bench piece.

Both of them are probably around $20m AAV - Keuchel a little less, Bumgarner a little more. The risk with signing both of them isn’t so much the money but the years. You tie up 2/5ths of the rotation with two guys who are really close to being expensive #4 types and if that happens as soon as 2020, you’ve really clogged up payroll in a bad way, and the rotation in a way that prohibits the kids from stepping in. 

So my guess is the Angels are aiming to sign one of them, probably fairly soon. Kluber being a similar AAV probably had him as the third option too, but with 1-2 years of control, was a little easier to think of pairing him in addition to one of these guys. I don’t think Ryu has ever been an option.

Once they sign Keuchel or Bumgarner, they can probably pump the brakes a bit and see where things go for the other arm until late winter. See if any bargains can be had in FA late winter, like Wood, Teheran, Miley, or wait and see which trade options open up as more teams sign FAs.

Bumgarner is a 2, Keuchel a 3. Heaney and Bundy are 4’s. For the record Ryu and Price are 2’s. Kluber is a borderline 1/2. Ohtani can be a 1, but he can also be the best DH in the game. Sooo...

I don’t think Either Keuchel or Bumgarner slips to a #4 for at least three more seasons. And I don’t think Bumgarner will.

People underrate him because he has a lot of innings on his arm and he was injured in 2017 and 2018, plus his ERA dropped. I think he was a bit bored pitching for a losing club.

Put him on a winning team and he’s the guy you want throwing the tough starts. I see experience and reliability. 
 

He’s gotta be the #1 choice. And at or around 5-105, I think you can get him. Plus I’d say it would be sweet taking him away from the Dodgers.
 

Keuchel is a bit older but I’d prefer to get him for 2/34 or 3/48. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

2.32 ERA, which led the NL, and finished 2nd in Cy Young voting in 2019. 1.97 ERA in 2018. But yeah.... Totally not an ace. 

If he does that consistently, sure, but it’s largely based on a career year with elite control on balls in play. Given his health over the last few years and the career year, it’s far from sure that he’s actually that good. It’s like the pitching equivalent of Cozart. He could be that guy, but if he isn’t, you’ll be heavily overpaying. 

[Second Base]

20 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

If he does that consistently, sure, but it’s largely based on a career year with elite control on balls in play. Given his health over the last few years and the career year, it’s far from sure that he’s actually that good. It’s like the pitching equivalent of Cozart. He could be that guy, but if he isn’t, you’ll be heavily overpaying. 

2.20 ERA across his last 44 starts, which is a year and a half worth of sample size. So...

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

2.20 ERA across his last 44 starts, which is a year and a half worth of sample size. So...

Then why are the Dogs ignoring him and going after Bumgarner at a higher cost and with a QO if he’s such a sure thing? 

[Pancake Bear]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

2.20 ERA across his last 44 starts, which is a year and a half worth of sample size. So...

The point is, this is a guy with no QO attached, only 33 going into 2020, and he’s attracting nothing close to the interest of Cole or Strasburg, or even Kluber, apparently. If he’s an ace, teams would be all over him. No indication of that. He’s been treated as similar to Keuchel and Bumgarner, and his former team is pursuing Bumgarner more. 

That to me suggests the industry does not view him as an ace. 

[Second Base]

Just now, Pancake Bear said:

Then why are the Dogs ignoring him and going after Bumgarner at a higher cost and with a QO if he’s such a sure thing? 

Why were the Angels as willing as they were to let Nolan Ryan walk? Why did the Astros let Morton go without so much as a qualifying offer? Why did the Dishes let both Greinke and Darvish get away when they could've easily afforded both? 

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

The point is, this is a guy with no QO attached, only 33 going into 2020, and he’s attracting nothing close to the interest of Cole or Strasburg, or even Kluber, apparently. If he’s an ace, teams would be all over him. No indication of that. He’s been treated as similar to Keuchel and Bumgarner, and his former team is pursuing Bumgarner more. 

That to me suggests the industry does not view him as an ace. 

You sure about that? You're sure that Ryu hasn't had nearly as many teams interested in him as Strasburg or Cole? 

[Stradling]

I’ll mention this again, if we sign two expensive arms it’s basically saying goodbye to Simmons after this season because of the escalating penalties for going over the luxury tax. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

You sure about that? You're sure that Ryu hasn't had nearly as many teams interested in him as Strasburg or Cole? 

If he has, the media has been silent about it. Nobody is talking about him getting 5 years 175m. They’re talking about him in the range of the mid tier guys. 

Are you sure you aren’t overrating him?

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

You sure about that? You're sure that Ryu hasn't had nearly as many teams interested in him as Strasburg or Cole? 

He will be lucky to get 1/3 of the contract Strasburg got.