Jonathan Villar, anyone?

[Mark68]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/orioles-jonathan-villar-waivers.html

"The Orioles have placed infielder Jonathan Villar on outright waivers after being unable to find a trade partner for the fleet-footed switch-hitter, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (via Twitter). Villar’s projected $10.4MM arbitration salary apparently served as too substantial a roadblock to overcome when marketing him to other teams."

[mmc]

No, no interest in paying him $10 million next season.

[Stradling]

Such a tough call.  $10 million is nothing for a 4 WAR player, the problem is we have the positions covered that he can play.  He is a switch hitter, so he could fit in nicely pretty much anywhere in the line up, and he steals some bases as well.  So him at 2nd, Fletcher at 3rd, Rengifo gets moved for a pitcher and La Stella backs up both positions and can be the left handed platoon at first for Albert.  

[Dick B Back]

What’s his spin rate?

[floplag]

I do it with the idea that hes also going to play some 1B.  Heck i might even see if he can play the OF and see time in RF.  He has played the OF in the bigs.
As Strad said, 10M is nothing for a 4 war player and this one not only hit 24 HR but stole 40 bases!
Not sure about his defense though, anyone have any idea on that?  From what ive read the metrics dont love him but he cant be that much of a hack and play that many spots. 

[Docwaukee]

couldn't find a trade partner for a 28yo 4 WAR SS set to make 10m in arb.  He probably gets a multi year deal on the open market, but with this being the case, it makes you wonder how much Simmons would be worth in trade with only 1yr left and due 15m coming off a sub 2 WAR season at the age of 30.  Also makes me think about the value of an extension.  Simmons has a much better track record of course but there isn't a huge market for SS.  

[Second Base]

I would absolutely claim him. Why? 

VALUE

1. They could immediately flip him. Obviously the salary made it hard for the O's to trade him, but if there Angels eat 5 million, they suddenly have a 4-win trade chip on their hands. Which in essence means they can buy prospects.

2. They could trade La Stella. His value is plenty high coming off his best season.

3. They could trade Simmons, who would have plenty of suitors. I'd be opposed to it though.

4. They could trade Fletcher or Rengifo, though I'd be firmly opposed to this.

5. They could just stick him in the outfield and trade Goodwin. 

It opens up a ton of possibilities and all it costs us a waiver claim and a few million.

[failos]

Pitchers pls

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I would absolutely claim him. Why? 

VALUE

1. They could immediately flip him. Obviously the salary made it hard for the O's to trade him, but if there Angels eat 5 million, they suddenly have a 4-win trade chip on their hands. Which in essence means they can buy prospects.

2. They could trade La Stella. His value is plenty high coming off his best season.

3. They could trade Simmons, who would have plenty of suitors. I'd be opposed to it though.

4. They could trade Fletcher or Rengifo, though I'd be firmly opposed to this.

5. They could just stick him in the outfield and trade Goodwin. 

It opens up a ton of possibilities and all it costs us a waiver claim and a few million.

don't you think the orioles would eat five mil if they had a trade partner out there?

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

don't you think the orioles would eat five mil if they had a trade partner out there?

Doubtful. The Orioles are tanking. They're predominantly interested in cutting costs in any way they can.

For them, saving 5 million and prospects was not as valuable as saving 10.4 million. For the Angels, I take the prospects, particularly if they are pitching prospects. 

Or if they can't find a suitor for Villar, then trade La Stella or Simmons. 

Edited November 27, 2019 by Second Base

[CanadianHalo]

15 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Doubtful. The Orioles are tanking. They're predominantly interested in cutting costs in any way they can.

For them, saving 5 million and prospects was not as valuable as saving 10.4 million. For the Angels, I take the prospects, particularly if they are pitching prospects. 

Or if they can't find a suitor for Villar, then trade La Stella or Simmons. 

You don’t think the Orioles made calls around the league first before deciding to put him on waivers?

If the Angels or anyone for that matter wanted him at 10.4 mill they could’ve had him for a no name prospect 

[eligrba]

The Angels have Zach fucking Cozart.........for more money.

[Second Base]

19 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

You don’t think the Orioles made calls around the league first before deciding to put him on waivers?

If the Angels or anyone for that matter wanted him at 10.4 mill they could’ve had him for a no name prospect 

Did you read the part where I said eat 5 million? Basically what I'm proposing is that the Angels flip him, which means they are buying a prospect for 5 million.

For the O's, one prospect and saving 5 million doesn't put them in a position to win. They intend to lose so they can get draft picks and cut 10 million so that can make a big splash signing I'm a few years.

For the Angels, they need pitching prospects. They can get a good one for a 4 win player at only 5 million.

[eligrba]

Just now, Second Base said:

Did you read the part where I said eat 5 million? Basically what I'm proposing is that the Angels flip him, which means they are buying a prospect for 5 million.

For the O's, one prospect and saving 5 million doesn't put them in a position to win. They intend to lose so they can get draft picks and cut 10 million so that can make a big splash signing I'm a few years.

For the Angels, they need pitching prospects. They can get a good one for a 4 win player at only 5 million.

Then why didn’t the Orioles do that?

[Second Base]

Just now, eligrba said:

Then why didn’t the Orioles do that?

Again, the Orioles are trying to lose. They want the higher pick and they want to save 10.4 million. That's more valuable to them than a prospect. 

[Docwaukee]

57 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Again, the Orioles are trying to lose. They want the higher pick and they want to save 10.4 million. That's more valuable to them than a prospect. 

still doesn't make sense.  If we got a quality prospect for 5m then the Orioles could use that same quality prospect.  Eating the 5m doesn't change whether they're trying to lose and getting a prospect who isn't going to be in the bigs for awhile isn't going to help them win either.  So they can still tank and get good draft position in order to get ...... prospects.  

 

[Second Base]

38 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

still doesn't make sense.  If we got a quality prospect for 5m then the Orioles could use that same quality prospect.  Eating the 5m doesn't change whether they're trying to lose and getting a prospect who isn't going to be in the bigs for awhile isn't going to help them win either.  So they can still tank and get good draft position in order to get ...... prospects.  

 

If prospects were what they wanted, they could've ate practically the entire sum of money and got themselves a pretty solid return. The Orioles are more concerned with the money. They wanted to save 10.4 million. 

I'm just saying, this is an avenue where the Angels could potentially buy themselves a pretty decent prospect for 5 million. 

[mmc]

39 minutes ago, Second Base said:

If prospects were what they wanted, they could've ate practically the entire sum of money and got themselves a pretty solid return. The Orioles are more concerned with the money. They wanted to save 10.4 million. 

I'm just saying, this is an avenue where the Angels could potentially buy themselves a pretty decent prospect for 5 million. 

How likely is it that he repeats that season?  I can guarantee you his value (regardless of salary) is more that of a utility infielder vs a good starter.  We will not be getting any type of good prospect in a trade for him.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, mymerlincat said:

How likely is it that he repeats that season?  I can guarantee you his value (regardless of salary) is more that of a utility infielder vs a good starter.  We will not be getting any type of good prospect in a trade for him.

I have a hard time believing that the Orioles care about 5 mil so much that it would restrict their ability to get a pretty decent prospect.  Let's say they could get a Patrick Sandoval type.  If that were available for 5 mil, they'd do it in a heartbeat.  

There was no market for Villar.  

[Second Base]

It ultimately becomes a question of what portion the Angels would need to absorb. If the Angels have to eat 8 million to get Pat Sandoval type, then it isn't worth it right now for them. Sure, he comes with 6 years of control, but the Angels likely need every penny to sign the two starters they need. Because anything less than two front or one front and one mid rotation starter would be a massive disappointment. But let's say the Angels only need to eat 5 million and get Sandoval back, you have to seriously consider that. If they only need to eat 3 million, you make that deal immediately.

But why wouldn't Baltimore just make that deal? Simple. For a tanking team, particularly one in the very early stages of a rebuild, money is worth more than prospects. If the Orioles were near competing, getting another perspective to build around would be worth it. But this far out, they're better off just pocketing the money because whatever prospect they got, still wouldn't be around by the time they were ready to compete.

But then the other side of that would be, why not just keep him? And how likely is it that Villar replicates that production? Looking at his last four years, he has two seasons of 4-win production, one of nearly 3-win production and one where he was replacement level. The average here would put him right around 2.5 wins to 3 wins in value. Right in line with where Tommy La Stella would be last year if he'd stayed healthy. But not as good as Fletcher or Simmons, the difference here would be that La Stella won't cost as much.

So it's a gamble. Best case scenario, you are able to buy a decent prospect with him and it only cost you 3 million. Or he comes in and prices another 4 win season. Worst case scenario, is you just wasted 10 million on a player that you already have, or you bought a simply decent prospect for 7 million, which is an overpay.

[Chuck]

 

[floplag]

13 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I have a hard time believing that the Orioles care about 5 mil so much that it would restrict their ability to get a pretty decent prospect.  Let's say they could get a Patrick Sandoval type.  If that were available for 5 mil, they'd do it in a heartbeat.  

There was no market for Villar.  

Normally i think you're pretty close to spot on, even if i dont agree, but this one makes little sense.  How could there be no market for what he dopes even at the full 10M, let alone 5M for example?

[CanadianHalo]

The Angels aren’t claiming him in hopes of flipping him. 
 

If the Angels claim or sign him he’s playing here. It would however make another piece expendable like Fletcher

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, CanadianHalo said:

The Angels aren’t claiming him in hopes of flipping him. 
 

If the Angels claim or sign him he’s playing here. It would however make another piece expendable like Fletcher

La Stella would be expendable before Fletcher is.

[CanadianHalo]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

La Stella would be expendable before Fletcher is.

I’m still holding out hope that we send Fletcher to the Cubs for Contreras. 
 

I think that’s a very fair trade for both teams and solves big time needs for both