Jonathan Villar, anyone?

[Docwaukee]

13 hours ago, floplag said:

Of course, but thats not what im referring to.  

 

See above, im not talking about within context of a given trrade, most have been very high on REngifos ability to walk and such and as a result were less likely to trade him in past discussions.

No matter

I think a year ago it was a different story.  People were more skeptical about Fletcher and his ability to repeat what he did his rookie season and whether his breakout in AAA was legit.  A year later and he's a gold glove candidate who double his walk rate to a respectable level and solid overall with the bat.  Whereas Rengifo showed some growing pain in his first stint in mlb.  I think if you took a poll right now, most would be more willing to trade Rengifo.  I also think Fletcher's name keeps coming up in the Contreras discussions because people know Rengifo wouldn't be enough to get him whereas fletcher might be by.  But if you could get Contreras for Rengifo, you do it.  For Fletcher, it would give me pause and ultimately, I think I would pass.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I think a year ago it was a different story.  People were more skeptical about Fletcher and his ability to repeat what he did his rookie season and whether his breakout in AAA was legit.  A year later and he's a gold glove candidate who double his walk rate to a respectable level and solid overall with the bat.  Whereas Rengifo showed some growing pain in his first stint in mlb.  I think if you took a poll right now, most would be more willing to trade Rengifo.  I also think Fletcher's name keeps coming up in the Contreras discussions because people know Rengifo wouldn't be enough to get him whereas fletcher might be by.  But if you could get Contreras for Rengifo, you do it.  For Fletcher, it would give me pause and ultimately, I think I would pass.  

I saw someone on the MLBTR chat asked if Fletcher for Contreras was fair, and the host said the Cubs would want a lot more than Fletcher. 

Which tells me a couple things..

1. The baseball world still hasn't caught on to how good David Fletcher is. Good batting average and OBP, good base runner, gold glove caliber defender at three infield spots, can play the outfield as well. Very consistent in his play. Rarely slumps, and well liked in the clubhouse.

2. Angels fans may be overrating him a little. Not much in the way of power or speed. Diminutive size, not much hype as a prospect. Gets much if his value in defender, and good defenders in a utility role are not difficult to find cheap on the scrap pile.

Both are likely true. So I'm guessing it would take a little more than Fletcher for Contreras.

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think a year ago it was a different story.  People were more skeptical about Fletcher and his ability to repeat what he did his rookie season and whether his breakout in AAA was legit.  A year later and he's a gold glove candidate who double his walk rate to a respectable level and solid overall with the bat.  Whereas Rengifo showed some growing pain in his first stint in mlb.  I think if you took a poll right now, most would be more willing to trade Rengifo.  I also think Fletcher's name keeps coming up in the Contreras discussions because people know Rengifo wouldn't be enough to get him whereas fletcher might be by.  But if you could get Contreras for Rengifo, you do it.  For Fletcher, it would give me pause and ultimately, I think I would pass.  

Perhaps, i was the opposite but im sure youre right in that last season may have changed some minds.  

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I saw someone on the MLBTR chat asked if Fletcher for Contreras was fair, and the host said the Cubs would want a lot more than Fletcher. 

Which tells me a couple things..

1. The baseball world still hasn't caught on to how good David Fletcher is. Good batting average and OBP, good base runner, gold glove caliber defender at three infield spots, can play the outfield as well. Very consistent in his play. Rarely slumps, and well liked in the clubhouse.

2. Angels fans may be overrating him a little. Not much in the way of power or speed. Diminutive size, not much hype as a prospect. Gets much if his value in defender, and good defenders in a utility role are not difficult to find cheap on the scrap pile.

Both are likely true. So I'm guessing it would take a little more than Fletcher for Contreras.

Also wanted to add that Fletcher, at least the current version, has one key ‘flaw’ in that his offensive production is going to be tied directly to his BAbip. He doesn’t hit for enough power or draw enough walks (YET) to avoid that. The doubling of his BB% last year was a very good indicator, but it only got him up to league average. He also isn’t really built to be a power hitter - which is okay - Altuve wasn’t either, so there’s still a little bit of hope that Fletcher could develop into a hitter that adds another 10 doubles/5 homers to his typical season. In that case, with his current offensive profile and defensive skill set, he becomes a borderline regular All Star.

But there’s also a very real chance we are seeing close to peak Fletcher now, and if this current version is pretty close to his ceiling, involving him in a deal isn’t totally crazy, especially if another team is valuing him with an expectation he has more to unlock still. 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Also wanted to add that Fletcher, at least the current version, has one key ‘flaw’ in that his offensive production is going to be tied directly to his BAbip. He doesn’t hit for enough power or draw enough walks (YET) to avoid that. The doubling of his BB% last year was a very good indicator, but it only got him up to league average. He also isn’t really built to be a power hitter - which is okay - Altuve wasn’t either, so there’s still a little bit of hope that Fletcher could develop into a hitter that adds another 10 doubles/5 homers to his typical season. In that case, with his current offensive profile and defensive skill set, he becomes a borderline regular All Star.

But there’s also a very real chance we are seeing close to peak Fletcher now, and if this current version is pretty close to his ceiling, involving him in a deal isn’t totally crazy, especially if another team is valuing him with an expectation he has more to unlock still. 

a very fair assessment.  He's been surprising us from day one.  He might have a batting title in his future.  

[totdprods]

15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

a very fair assessment.  He's been surprising us from day one.  He might have a batting title in his future.  

I called him my ‘19 starting 2B back in that “Will David Fletcher Ever Start A Game?” thread a couple years back...huge believer in him and his abilities, and think he still has potential ahead of him. He’s young, makes great contact, hard contact, and has excellent discipline. I think there’s room to grow.

But to this point, he’s still *technically* just at league average with an OPS+ a shade below 100, so most of his offensive value is derived from his ability to basically slap singles where they ain’t. If any defensive shifting or pitching patterns catch up to him, he could become a glove-first UT IF real fast. Still valuable, but also pretty replaceable. That same skillset could also allow him a fluky year where he hit .340 and wins a title, like you mentioned.

Either way, if an impact player was offered - Ray, Minor, Contreras, Hendricks, Gray, whoever - and Fletcher made up a vast majority of a deal, especially with the second tier of FA SPs looking difficult/competitive to shop in, the number of intriguing FA IFs (Villar, Moustakas, Schoop, Gregorius, potentially Hernandez, even Donaldson, Rendon, Panik, Kendrick, Gennett), and the current IF depth we possess, it’s worth considering.

Edited November 29, 2019 by totdprods

[Troll Daddy]

If Fletch is slapping singles were they ain’t ... pretty had to defend against him. He does have the ability to hit to all fields.  He’s our best lead off option going into next season. Don’t think other teams value him the same as we do ... so doubtful the Angels will get enough value for him in a trade. Maddon expressed how much he likes him in a press interview.

Although, Villar would make a better lead off hitter. 

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I called him my ‘19 starting 2B back in that “Will David Fletcher Ever Start A Game?” thread a couple years back...huge believer in him and his abilities, and think he still has potential ahead of him. He’s young, makes great contact, hard contact, and has excellent discipline. I think there’s room to grow.

But to this point, he’s still *technically* just at league average with an OPS+ a shade below 100, so most of his offensive value is derived from his ability to basically slap singles where they ain’t. If any defensive shifting or pitching patterns catch up to him, he could become a glove-first UT IF real fast. Still valuable, but also pretty replaceable. That same skillset could also allow him a fluky year where he hit .340 and wins a title, like you mentioned.

Either way, if an impact player was offered - Ray, Minor, Contreras, Hendricks, Gray, whoever - and Fletcher made up a vast majority of a deal, especially with the second tier of FA SPs looking difficult/competitive to shop in, the number of intriguing FA IFs (Villar, Moustakas, Schoop, Gregorius, potentially Hernandez, even Donaldson, Rendon, Panik, Kendrick, Gennett), and the current IF depth we possess, it’s worth considering.

for me it has to be for someone with at least 3 years of control.  Because even if you extend a player with less than that, you're talking about FA cost which to me, defeats the purpose of using player currency 

My main reservation with Fletcher about him becoming an everyday player was that walk rate below 5%.  The fact that he went up so much in one years shows us he's got the aptitude for improvement in that regard.  I think that can continue to improve with more experience now as we know he's not just some hacker up there.  I think the fact that he does have some pop and can go line to line will keep defenses honest.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Villar fits the bill of a Maddon type bench player a guy who can play numerous positions SS, 2b, 3b, LF, RF and probably could play CF in a pinch if something were to happen to Trout in a game. Just due to his speed and range. He's kind of similar to a Zobrist with great wheels some pop. What would he cost us on the open market? I would figure less than 10.4M as no one would trade for him with his current contract. Moustakas made 3M last year as a FA. I would believe his open market would be closer to 4-5M due to position flexibility as the run game has kind of died off due to Analytics.

Similar to Fletcher, Rengfo are both capable of playing 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF..  which I believe keeps them here and on the starting 26 man roster due to flexibility. Fletcher could also fill in CF during game if something happened to Trout.

LaStella only can really play 2b, 3b. I know he played 1st base for a game. He just really doesnt fit that spot position wise with AP#5 who we will need to find some field time. Also, he's never played OF in a Major League game.

Cozart also only really can play 3b, SS, 2b similar to LaStella and due to his shoulder issues will never see time in the outfield for fear of diving and messing it up again. I think he retires or is released after SPT if he can't come back 100%.

I wouldnt mind him "Villar" on the bench or taking up LaStella's spot if we can move him in a package for a prospect Starting Pitcher or a prospect Catcher.

[Stradling]

If he can be had for $5-6 million you almost have to go out and get him.  I mean if you can get anywhere near his season of a year ago then you would be getting the bargain of the off season.  It also frees us a Rengifo or a La Stella trade.  Hell if you had to you could trade Simmons, although I am not sure I would unless someone gave up a very nice pitching prospect for him.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Villar fits the bill of a Maddon type bench player a guy who can play numerous positions SS, 2b, 3b, LF, RF and probably could play CF in a pinch if something were to happen to Trout in a game. Just due to his speed and range. He's kind of similar to a Zobrist with great wheels some pop. What would he cost us on the open market? I would figure less than 10.4M as no one would trade for him with his current contract. Moustakas made 3M last year as a FA. I would believe his open market would be closer to 4-5M due to position flexibility as the run game has kind of died off due to Sabermetrics.

Similar to Fletcher, Rengfo are both capable of playing 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF..  which I believe keeps them here and on the starting 26 man roster due to flexibility. Fletcher could also fill in CF during game if something happened to Trout.

LaStella only can really play 2b, 3b. I know he played 1st base for a game. He just really doesnt fit that spot position wise with AP#5 who we will need to find some field time. Also, he's never played OF in a Major League game.

Cozart also only really can play 3b, SS, 2b similar to LaStella and due to his shoulder issues will never see time in the outfield for fear of diving and messing it up again. I think he retires after SPT if he can't come back 100%.

I wouldnt mind him "Villar" on the bench or taking up LaStella's spot if we can move him in a package for a prospect Starting Pitcher or a prospect Catcher.

I agree with most of this although Moustakas buyout was 3m +1m for options.  He made 7m as a base last year so he actually got 11m for last year.  Also, I think we'll see La Stella play a decent amount of 1b this year.  I'm guessing that Villar gets a multi year deal of 2/18 or so.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I agree with most of this although Moustakas buyout was 3m +1m for options.  He made 7m as a base last year so he actually got 11m for last year.  Also, I think we'll see La Stella play a decent amount of 1b this year.  I'm guessing that Villar gets a multi year deal of 2/18 or so.  

Doc I went off Baseball reference that said 3M (buyout)*** I was on my phone small screen***....for 2019... sportrac says 7M 50k in incentives.

Also, I dont include buyouts as part of salary. As they are there in case they decide to walk away from the player.

Also, regarding your suggestion for a Villar contract 2/18 = 9m per so, what is the big hold back of the 1.4M that his current contract is worth? Does 1.4M really break the bank in the grand scheme of things? I don't believe so.

We'll see what happens.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Doc I went off Baseball reference that said 3M (buyout)*** I was on my phone small screen***....for 2019... sportrac says 7M 50k in incentives.

Also, I dont include buyouts as part of salary. As they are there in case they decide to walk away from the player.

Also, regarding your suggestion for a Villar contract 2/18 = 9m per so, what is the big hold back of the 1.4M that his current contract is worth? Does 1.4M really break the bank in the grand scheme of things? I don't believe so.

We'll see what happens.

 

It's not a huge difference.  I'm just speculating what I think he'll get when/if he hits the open market.  I'm essentially saying he's probably worth about what his arb number is projected at.  I don't think the Angels will do that considering their other needs.  If his price tag drops to about 5 or 6 mil then they might consider it.  

Moustakas had a mutual option that he declined.  He got paid 10m for playing in 2019.  not sure how you don't include that.  If they mutually agreed to exercise the option it would have been an additional 11m which would have made the contract 2/18.  He'll probably get something similar so his going rate is about 9m per.  Which is about what I think Villar will cost.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

55 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

It's not a huge difference.  I'm just speculating what I think he'll get when/if he hits the open market.  I'm essentially saying he's probably worth about what his arb number is projected at.  I don't think the Angels will do that considering their other needs.  If his price tag drops to about 5 or 6 mil then they might consider it.  

Moustakas had a mutual option that he declined.  He got paid 10m for playing in 2019.  not sure how you don't include that.  If they mutually agreed to exercise the option it would have been an additional 11m which would have made the contract 2/18.  He'll probably get something similar so his going rate is about 9m per.  Which is about what I think Villar will cost.  

Dunno, about Moustakas the photo I posted above shows his salary at 7M with a 50k option? Where are you seeing an additional 2.5M? If you are including that as salary. It was done after the season as the contract was voided?

[Docwaukee]

47 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Dunno, about Moustakas the photo I posted above shows his salary at 7M with a 50k option? Where are you seeing an additional 2.5M? If you are including that as salary. It was done after the season as the contract was voided?

he made 10m + 50k bonus.  7m in salary, 3m in buyout and 50k in bonus for being an all-star. 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/free-agent-position-players-2/

great site if you haven't seen it.  Cot's baseball contracts.  

you were using Moustakas to estimate Villar's value.  Moustakas value is around 10m per year which I think is about right for Villar as well.