Both Cole and Strasburg?

[Claude]

4 hours ago, Second Base said:

Hey you never know. I mean if someone (Astros please) were to offer to take Upton and Pujols off the books, no questions asked, and they both waived their no trade clauses, then yeah, is start work Cole and Strasburg. Probably add Wheeler too.

It’s harder to sell cars when you can’t get that check engine light to clear. 

[Angel Oracle]

Likely best scenario, given the budget, is Cole, Wheeler, and D’Arnaud and keeping all of the key prospects.

[totdprods]

It's going to be very hard to get either Strasburg or Wheeler after Cole, I think. 

Obviously, Arte will have to open the checkbook up quite a bit to afford either after Gerrit, but I think it's likely both those arms will be in such demand, it'd be difficult to get either and do so on a deal that fits with what we would have just committed for Cole. 

[T.G.]

Doesn't Art want to be the Yankees of the west?

Sign 'em all.... Cole, Wheeler, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Rendon, Grandal.

It's not my money!

When do they add pinstripes to the uniforms?

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, RBM said:

Trout made $36 M in 2019.

Yep, it’s Clod math.  When Arte paid $20 million to get Ohtani Clod included that in the Angels payroll when discussing such things.  Because he’s trying to make sure another narrative has wings he pretends Trout didn’t get a signing bonus with his new contract. 

[Claude]

21 minutes ago, RBM said:

Trout made $36 M in 2019.

Yes he cost Arte $36M last season but $20M of that was considered a signing bonus. It all counts this season. 

[Claude]

23 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yep, it’s Clod math.  When Arte paid $20 million to get Ohtani Clod included that in the Angels payroll when discussing such things.  Because he’s trying to make sure another narrative has wings he pretends Trout didn’t get a signing bonus with his new contract. 

I’m very aware of the signing bonus. Did that count on the AAV?

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

I’m very aware of the signing bonus. Did that count on the AAV?

yes

[Claude]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

yes

ok that’s what I wanted to know. I didn’t look at it so my bad. Thank you.

[CanadianHalo]

At the end of the day if this team wants to compete in 2020 then we need 3 pitchers and a catcher. 2 pitchers and a catcher isn’t going to get it done.

Cole, Wheeler (for arguments sake since you all want him) and someone else like Keuchel if you want to go the FA route.
 

Eppler will have to make a trade to keep this within budget. Either for that 3rd pitcher or a catcher. If this organization’s goal is to really compete next season, I’m expecting Marsh to be shipped off for that 3rd pitcher or catcher. 
 

Should be a very interesting winter   

[Claude]

7 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

At the end of the day if this team wants to compete in 2020 then we need 3 pitchers and a catcher. 2 pitchers and a catcher isn’t going to get it done.

Cole, Wheeler (for arguments sake since you all want him) and someone else like Keuchel if you want to go the FA route.
 

Eppler will have to make a trade to keep this within budget. Either for that 3rd pitcher or a catcher. If this organization’s goal is to really compete next season, I’m expecting Marsh to be shipped off for that 3rd pitcher or catcher. 
 

Should be a very interesting winter   

I think they’re going to make an all out effort to sign Cole but anything beyond that is going to be a get what we can get situation. There are 29 other teams that are also trying to improve themselves. Cole will be a huge expense and we do have Heaney, Ohtani and some other young pitchers that will continue to progress. Cole is the goal. 

[AngelStew43]

I think two pitchers and a catcher can get it done.  Add Cole and Bumgarner to Ohtani, Heaney, and Canning, and it is a rotation that can compete with anyones.  The bullpen is already deep.  I'm hoping for a minor deal with a team like the Dodgers for Austin Barnes to fill the catching spot.  In that scenario, Smith, Barnes, and Stassi could compete for playing time behind the plate

[CanadianHalo]

37 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

I think they’re going to make an all out effort to sign Cole but anything beyond that is going to be a get what we can get situation. There are 29 other teams that are also trying to improve themselves. Cole will be a huge expense and we do have Heaney, Ohtani and some other young pitchers that will continue to progress. Cole is the goal. 

If they approach this offseason with the mindset of relying on Heaney next season then we’re doomed 

[ettin]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Their numbers don't make sense or are missing some key components.  

They show 101.7m in total aav for Trout, Pujols, Upton, Simmons, Cozart.  

Then they have 27m in arb estimates but their total aav payroll is only 121.2m.  Doesn't add up right.  I think what they did was add Kole and Petit to the 101.7 or something.  

The roster resource number is spot on.  

+101.7m aav for existing players under contract.  
+1m for Kole's buyout
+27m for arb estimates 
+8.3m for pre arb players (could be a little less)
+2.25 for salaries of minor league players not on the 40 man
+15m for benefits.  (could be a little less)
=155.25m

-8m or so if you let Bour, Trop, Smith, Garcia go.  but you add about 2m back assuming the 4 players you add to replace them for now are league min.  

puts them at about 150 relative to the luxury tax or about 58m below the tax.  

Total actual payroll right now without those arb guys is about 145m.  

Add about 40-45 to that for actual payroll.  Cole at 25m in his first year leaves you about 15-20 to finish the rest of the team with a payroll near 190m.  If Cole has an aav of 33m then you have another 25m before you hit the tax.  Assume the remaining 15m in actual is the AAV as well and you're already only 10m under the tax (the addition of benefits makes the number go up pretty quick).  

 

I am confused, so let's talk this one out:

Actual guaranteed contractual salaries - Trout + Pujols + Simmons + Upton + Cozart = $114,500,001

Kole's buyout - $1,000,000

Arbitration estimates per MLBTradeRumors.com - $27,000,000

Pre-arbitration players on the active roster - $7,100,000

Non-active roster players - $2,250,000

Player benefits - $15,000,000

Total actual payroll = $166,850,001

Agree that Bour, Tropeano, and Garcia are gone (not 100% sure on Smith but possible): - $6,300,000

So rough starting actual payroll of $160,550,001?

 

Unless I made an error (again I suck at math, totally and bigly), actual payroll is $10M higher than AAV payroll (your $150M number above is correct).

This means that if the Angels sign Gerrit Cole, they will likely give him a contract with an AAV of $30M-$35M per season (pick your poison I think it is on the higher end). That puts AAV at $180M-$185M and, assuming the Angels backload the contract, probably puts actual payroll at about $185M-$190M (assume a 1st year payout of $25M-$30M). Essentially signing Gerrit to a backloaded contract will bring actual and AAV payrolls relatively even and pretty damn close to the "proposed" (i.e. the number that AW.com as a whole is throwing around) starting payroll of $190M, i.e. leaving very little room for much else, barring some more creative payroll moves by Billy and company.

As Jeff Fletcher has said more than once, actual payroll is the driver this off-season and Moreno is the final arbiter of where that number actually lands.

This is why, if Arte really wants to blow the lid open, signing Cole and Wheeler is incredibly problematic and will push actual payroll over $200M barring, again, creative payroll action by Eppler (i.e. extending Simmons and backloading the new contract saving maybe $5M this year and finding a way to trade Cozart's salary off the books by packaging him up with prospects to another team).

[Revad]

Ive.forgotten who pointed this out, but there are some useful pitchers in the 2021 FA market as well such as Tanaka and Paxon, so saving for salary for next year makes sense.  Get Cole and an innings eater this year and hope for a wild card, leaving some room for another big 2021 acquisition.  I'll add to that by pointing out we will likely have some excellent trade bait at the 2020 trade deadline (Simmons, La Stella and Robles), so setting up for 2021 might be a good strategy

Too bad this is the last year on Eppler's contract.

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Revad

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Revad said:

Ive.forgotten who pointed this out, but there are some useful pitchers in the 2021 FA market as well such as Tanaka and Paxon, so saving for salary for next year makes sense.  Get Cole and an innings eater this year and hope for a wild card, leaving some room for another big 2021 acquisition.  I'll add to that by pointing out we will likely have some excellent trade bait at the 2020 trade deadline (Simmons, La Stella and Robles), so setting up for 2021 might be a good strategy

Too bad this is the last year on Eppler's contract.

They could probably get two guys like Pineda, Wood, Wacha, or Porcello for the price of one Ryu/Wheeler/Bumgarner/Hamels or at least fairly close. Add those two to Cole/Strasburg, Ohtani, Heaney, and let all the kids develop a little more slowly along.

[disarcina]

listened to the ESPN radio feed of Game 5 of the World Series.

the EPSN radio side guys mentioned several times as Cole pitched his gem -- that the ANGELS seem to be his favored destination to wind up as a free agent for 2020 - forward.

just a lot of talk but they said it several times...........at least it wasn't SI saying it.

[disarcina]

Cole is going to break the bank of which ever team signs him.

I look around MLB, see Little League sign up numbers, teams and leagues decreasing in number and participation year after year and I wonder how much longer MLB owners can pay out these large contracts.........

seems like the lobster in the pot to me..........actually same thing with the NFL -- YFL and high school sign up numbers for football are way down all over (except maybe TEXAS).  These sports are going to find it difficult to sustain the large contract world they've been living in.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, ettin said:

I am confused, so let's talk this one out:

Actual guaranteed contractual salaries - Trout + Pujols + Simmons + Upton + Cozart = $114,500,001

Kole's buyout - $1,000,000

Arbitration estimates per MLBTradeRumors.com - $27,000,000

Pre-arbitration players on the active roster - $7,100,000

Non-active roster players - $2,250,000

Player benefits - $15,000,000

Total actual payroll = $166,850,001

Agree that Bour, Tropeano, and Garcia are gone (not 100% sure on Smith but possible): - $6,300,000

So rough starting actual payroll of $160,550,001?

 

Unless I made an error (again I suck at math, totally and bigly), actual payroll is $10M higher than AAV payroll (your $150M number above is correct).

This means that if the Angels sign Gerrit Cole, they will likely give him a contract with an AAV of $30M-$35M per season (pick your poison I think it is on the higher end). That puts AAV at $180M-$185M and, assuming the Angels backload the contract, probably puts actual payroll at about $185M-$190M (assume a 1st year payout of $25M-$30M). Essentially signing Gerrit to a backloaded contract will bring actual and AAV payrolls relatively even and pretty damn close to the "proposed" (i.e. the number that AW.com as a whole is throwing around) starting payroll of $190M, i.e. leaving very little room for much else, barring some more creative payroll moves by Billy and company.

As Jeff Fletcher has said more than once, actual payroll is the driver this off-season and Moreno is the final arbiter of where that number actually lands.

This is why, if Arte really wants to blow the lid open, signing Cole and Wheeler is incredibly problematic and will push actual payroll over $200M barring, again, creative payroll action by Eppler (i.e. extending Simmons and backloading the new contract saving maybe $5M this year and finding a way to trade Cozart's salary off the books by packaging him up with prospects to another team).

usually the 15m for benefits isn't included when people talk about actual payroll.  For instance, this year's payroll was around 160m but that is without those benefits added.  So subtract that 15m from your 160m estimate for where we're currently at and it takes us to around 145m.  

[nate]

So, we could probably get Cole, Stras, Grandal, and Wheeler for ~$85m AAV.  Let's do it!

[Blarg]

How about this. Wheeler, Madbum, Keuchel and Grandel. Yes, there is no #1 guy but there is a lot of innings the bullpen doesn't have to cover and now Heaney and Canning can alternate between starts, relief and bullpen games when Ohtani's schedule doesn't require a 6th starter. 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

How about this. Wheeler, Madbum, Keuchel and Grandel. Yes, there is no #1 guy but there is a lot of innings the bullpen doesn't have to cover and now Heaney and Canning can alternate between starts, relief and bullpen games when Ohtani's schedule doesn't require a 6th starter. 

I like it simply for the fact that it’s different from Cole/Strasburg, Wheeler, and Grandal and it’s a new idea to discuss. 

The risk with spreading the money and innings out over three arms not named Cole is that 1) they’ll probably have to outbid teams more often, which might not mean a $250m Cole contract or something crazy, but might mean a lot more for lesser arms and 2) it clogs up payroll in more ways for a longer period of time. 

But I do think there is merit in considering an alternative to Cole, or at least Cole + Wheeler, where the money is spread around much more on lesser pieces, especially if you believe the Angels and Eppler can truly wait until midseason/next offseason before they really ramp up their playoff push. Which personally I think is more beneficial.

Edited October 28, 2019 by totdprods

[CanadianHalo]

35 minutes ago, Blarg said:

How about this. Wheeler, Madbum, Keuchel and Grandel. Yes, there is no #1 guy but there is a lot of innings the bullpen doesn't have to cover and now Heaney and Canning can alternate between starts, relief and bullpen games when Ohtani's schedule doesn't require a 6th starter. 

Grandel, Madden and Calloway all in one offseason! 
 

Oh my!

[jordan]

Just my gut, but I think if Angels land Cole, and there is a possibility of landing Strasburg, Arte will open the checkbook. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking. But I think Arte see’s this opportunity, as he is getting older, to load up on pitching and vastly improve this team.  

[Troll Daddy]

Of course that would be cool ... but can anybody remember the pitching staff in 2002 without googling it lol @LouWho was our Ace back then Washburn?