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If they were to trade Marsh......


Docwaukee

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what would be an acceptable return in your estimation?

Probably:

Luis Castillo - another guy with great stuff but probably not a true ace.  Could be though.  controlled for 4 more years.  

Shane Bieber - not sure I'm a belieber (sorry).  But the guy was amazing this year.  5 years of control. 

Lucas Giolito - great season.  4 more years of control.  probably closer to a for sure but that 2018 makes me a little nervous.  

Sandy Alcantara - Throws in the high 90's and is probably ready to break out into an ace.  Controlled for the next five years.  Can't imagine they'd trade him.

Maybe

Jameson Taillon - another probably ace but injury issues.  Three years of control. 

Mike Clevinger - This would probably cause me too much pain to even consider.  like trading a gold brick for a kick to the nuts and then trading a large diamond to get the gold back.  Three years of control.  

Probably not:

Mike Foltynewicz - excellent last year but a little off this year.  Finished very strong.  They're unlikely to trade him because they need him as a contender.  Only two years of control left is the big problem.  

Syndergaard - two years of control left is again the big minus.  Also hasn't totally turned into the ace he should be but the potential is there big time.  

German Marquez - a guy who could break out in a better park.  Was great last year and decent this year.  3 years of control

Jon Gray - another rockie that could flourish in a different environment.  Only two years of control left though.  

Chris Sale - red flags all over and lots of money left.  Mostly injury concern.  

Eduardo Rodriguez - kind of a sleeper but only two years of control.  

Matt Boyd - 3 years of control and results aren't that far off from peripherals.  Gives up lots of hits but K's are sexy.  

No chance:

Anyone with one year of control like Robbie Ray, Kluber, etc.  

there are other guys I didn't mention where there's just no chance at them. 

I will also add that overall, I just really hope we don't trade him and instead spend our way to better pitching.  

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7 minutes ago, RBM said:

Marsh would only be a central piece of a package for these guys, right? I don’t see any of them being available in a one for one trade with a AA OF’er. So it probably is more about the  additional pieces on both sides. That being said, I think Giolito would be a great get. 

of course.  I am assuming he'd headline a package of players.  no way they get any of those guys for Marsh alone.  

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if they make a big trade for a single player, then the angels will be right back where they were several years ago and we will have wasted the entirety of trout's career. they need marsh and adell in the outfield for the salary relief because of the FA's they should be signing. secondly, the angels need adell and marsh to both be successful major leaguers, otherwise their lineup is not going to be good enough even with an enhanced pitching staff. there's a ton riding on these and some other minor leaguers if the angels have any real chance at being elite over the next several years. they need some luck to go their way for the first time in a long time. don't trade away your big assets, use them and add to them through FA.

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8 hours ago, RBM said:

How about Marsh, Thaiss, Jones and either Barria/Suarez/Sandoval for Giolito and McCann (Zack Collins is ready).

IMO Thaiss and Jones have very little trade value right now. I feel like at this point they're becoming the typical "throw in" for these trade proposals because it wouldn't remotely hurt us to lose them.

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9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

what would be an acceptable return in your estimation?

Probably:

Luis Castillo - another guy with great stuff but probably not a true ace.  Could be though.  controlled for 4 more years.  
Shane Bieber - not sure I'm a belieber (sorry).  But the guy was amazing this year.  5 years of control. 
Lucas Giolito - great season.  4 more years of control.  probably closer to a for sure but that 2018 makes me a little nervous.  
Sandy Alcantara - Throws in the high 90's and is probably ready to break out into an ace.  Controlled for the next five years.  Can't imagine they'd trade him.

Maybe

Jameson Taillon - another probably ace but injury issues.  Three years of control. 
Mike Clevinger - This would probably cause me too much pain to even consider.  like trading a gold brick for a kick to the nuts and then trading a large diamond to get the gold back.  Three years of control.  

Probably not:

Mike Foltynewicz - excellent last year but a little off this year.  Finished very strong.  They're unlikely to trade him because they need him as a contender.  Only two years of control left is the big problem.  
Syndergaard - two years of control left is again the big minus.  Also hasn't totally turned into the ace he should be but the potential is there big time.  
German Marquez - a guy who could break out in a better park.  Was great last year and decent this year.  3 years of control
Jon Gray - another rockie that could flourish in a different environment.  Only two years of control left though.  
Chris Sale - red flags all over and lots of money left.  Mostly injury concern.  
Eduardo Rodriguez - kind of a sleeper but only two years of control.  
Matt Boyd - 3 years of control and results aren't that far off from peripherals.  Gives up lots of hits but K's are sexy.  

No chance:

Anyone with one year of control like Robbie Ray, Kluber, etc.  
there are other guys I didn't mention where there's just no chance at them. 
I will also add that overall, I just really hope we don't trade him and instead spend our way to better pitching.  

Thanks for posting this @Dochalo, great summary. 
First - I totally agree that overall, I'd hope they keep Brandon Marsh. I think Arte can and will buy two FA SPs, and I have a lot of faith in our internal arms.
Good luck is bound to smile on us soon, and Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, Peters can all be positive contributors in '20. 

That said - I still feel there's an outside chance a trade involving Marsh is possible. He's receiving a lot of rave reviews right now, his value is becoming extremely high, and the Angels do have enough OFs for the foreseeable future. 
Additionally, a trade for a SP saves them money - either they land a 3rd arm via trade or they land a second, and use those savings to improve catcher, bullpen, bench...areas which could still use upgrades. If Arte is cheap at all, a trade might become a necessity. 

I only see Marsh getting moved if the Angels really whiff on FA SPs, or Billy is legit fearful for his job or is demanded to make a huge trade by Arte.

A couple specific notes..

  • Giolito: can't see the Sox moving him now, but the 2018 version represents a good example of a pitcher the Angels could (should?) target - finding a young, potential ace who hasn't had that breakout yet. Others, like Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez could be targets, whether or not Marsh is discussed. I like the idea of finding a potential ace pitcher with years of control whose price won't be sky-high yet. It's a risk, but if it pays out, a team that had already added say Cole and Wheeler plus the next Giolito becomes straight-up lethal.
  • Alcantara: I think once they dealt Richards and Gallen, this ship sailed...still, his peripherals weren't crazy and they're heavy on SP prospects and short on bats, especially OFs. 
  • Taillon: Tommy John surgery thwarted my prediction he'd have a huge breakout in 2019 and become the ace many have long dreamed on. Pirates will probably ride that out and see what value he can rebuild, and then perhaps flip him like they did Cole. 
  • Syndergaard: If Marsh is dealt, Thor might be the most likely reason. The lack of control is concerning, but the potential is certainly there (he and Cole are pretty much comparable through that age) and if the Angels are determined to win-now, he'd be the best arm to target in a trade. Despite what the Mets FO says, I think he is shopped.
  • Boyd: I know he ended the year poorly, but I still think he's stepping into a new tier and the three years of control and reasonable arb salary is really nice - dealing Marsh for someone this risky is far from ideal, but the positive is that Marsh might make up a huge amount of the value in a trade, unlike other names on the list which could still require a prospect or two that stings. Marsh's value would probably go the furthest here, especially since Detroit won't be seeking pitching value back as much and Eppler has a good history with Avila. 
  • Padres/Braves: Paddack and Gore are likely off the table, but Morejon could be a piece to discuss. Being a Georgia native, Atlanta and their need for a RF and glut of MLB-ready SP prospects shouldn't be ruled out either. They're likely going to be busy in the FA SP market too, so if they get lucky and bring in an arm or two, it could further facilitate a swap for Marsh and a top, MLB-ready SP prospect.
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43 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

IMO Thaiss and Jones have very little trade value right now. I feel like at this point they're becoming the typical "throw in" for these trade proposals because it wouldn't remotely hurt us to lose them.

I think Thaiss has a bit of value. Ward is down to nothing, and Jones is likely down to nothing. Certain teams with certain needs could still bite. 

Giolito is not going anywhere, I'd imagine. They're trying too hard to compete. A change of scenery for Lopez or Cease would be likelier. Remember, Giolito looked terrible the year before, sort of like how Cease did this year. He'd be an interesting target.

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11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

what would be an acceptable return in your estimation?

Probably:

Luis Castillo - another guy with great stuff but probably not a true ace.  Could be though.  controlled for 4 more years.  

Shane Bieber - not sure I'm a belieber (sorry).  But the guy was amazing this year.  5 years of control. 

Lucas Giolito - great season.  4 more years of control.  probably closer to a for sure but that 2018 makes me a little nervous.  

Sandy Alcantara - Throws in the high 90's and is probably ready to break out into an ace.  Controlled for the next five years.  Can't imagine they'd trade him.

Maybe

Jameson Taillon - another probably ace but injury issues.  Three years of control. 

Mike Clevinger - This would probably cause me too much pain to even consider.  like trading a gold brick for a kick to the nuts and then trading a large diamond to get the gold back.  Three years of control.  

Probably not:

Mike Foltynewicz - excellent last year but a little off this year.  Finished very strong.  They're unlikely to trade him because they need him as a contender.  Only two years of control left is the big problem.  

Syndergaard - two years of control left is again the big minus.  Also hasn't totally turned into the ace he should be but the potential is there big time.  

German Marquez - a guy who could break out in a better park.  Was great last year and decent this year.  3 years of control

Jon Gray - another rockie that could flourish in a different environment.  Only two years of control left though.  

Chris Sale - red flags all over and lots of money left.  Mostly injury concern.  

Eduardo Rodriguez - kind of a sleeper but only two years of control.  

Matt Boyd - 3 years of control and results aren't that far off from peripherals.  Gives up lots of hits but K's are sexy.  

No chance:

Anyone with one year of control like Robbie Ray, Kluber, etc.  

there are other guys I didn't mention where there's just no chance at them. 

I will also add that overall, I just really hope we don't trade him and instead spend our way to better pitching.  

Don't see Castillo, Bieber, Giolito, Sale, Folty and sandy getting moved

Syndergaard, sure, but concerns about his health and not getting MRI

I think Boyd, Gray, Rodrirguez can be acquired by not trading Marsh.

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I think people are over-valuing Marsh's trade currency, at least right now. The AZL performance is inspiring, but it doesn't all of a sudden make him an equal trade for a young major league quasi-ace. Maybe a package centered on Marsh gets the Angels one of the first half dozen or so on that list, Marsh's value alone isn't nearly high enough to bring back a 25 year old coming off a 5.6 fWAR season, for instance (Shane Bieber).

Furthermore, as many--including myself--have pointed out, Marsh's value hasn't yet peaked. All signs point to a big breakout year in 2020; if he tears up Salt Lake, a 22-year old ready for the majors has a lot more trade value.

But yeah, my hope is that they don't trade him. Marsh-Trout-Adell is just too damn sexy.

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4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think people are over-valuing Marsh's trade currency, at least right now. The AZL performance is inspiring, but it doesn't all of a sudden make him an equal trade for a young major league quasi-ace. Maybe a package centered on Marsh gets the Angels one of the first half dozen or so on that list, Marsh's value alone isn't nearly high enough to bring back a 25 year old coming off a 5.6 fWAR season, for instance (Shane Bieber).

Furthermore, as many--including myself--have pointed out, Marsh's value hasn't yet peaked. All signs point to a big breakout year in 2020; if he tears up Salt Lake, a 22-year old ready for the majors has a lot more trade value.

But yeah, my hope is that they don't trade him. Marsh-Trout-Adell is just too damn sexy.

No one is saying Marsh alone would get us these pitchers, you got damn idiot. Obviously we'd have to throw in more to make it work. He's just the centerpiece.

Dumbass.

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8 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

And regarding the questions about not enough room for Trout, Adell, Marsh, and Adams...there's always moving Marsh to 1B like they did with Erstad.    Granted, it's difficult to move an excellent arm/athleticism to 1B.  

Or not worry about it for now. At all.

The gap between Marsh and Adams is at least two years, maybe three or more. Making room for Marsh is more of a concern; by the time Adams is ready in 2022-23, we'll have a better sense of all of the young outfielders. If Marsh is settling in more as a solid 2-3 WAR player and Adams has turned into another Adell, then Marsh could be traded.

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I’d cry if we traded Marsh. Would love to see him, Trout and Adell rocking the outfield. I’d only trade him if the Angels plan on seriously contending for 2020, which they won’t. They should make the WC but shouldn’t be division/WS contenders till at least 2021. Let the farm take one more year of developing while we acquire two SP’s via FA. I know it’s easier to replace an outfielder (look at Goodwin), but trading Marsh just because we have Upton is a recipe for disaster. I don’t trust Adams quite yet to be better than Marsh in the future. Jordyn Adams needs to fill out more and work on seriously getting some arm strength. 
That’s why I think it’s best that we hold on to Marsh at least until the end of the 2020 season. This lets us see if Adams can be a breakout prospect this year and really start to shine. If he does, then put Marsh on the block. We have to be smart with these moves for serious contention in 2021-2025. That’s when Upton will be old and Marsh could be necessary. 

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11 hours ago, RBM said:

Maybe, but I think Eppler is at a point in his rebuild where he can package a deal with prospects for a third SP to make the team better now. The AA and A players we have now who are not expected to contribute until 2021-2023 don’t need to remain untouchable if we can get a #2 or #3 SP now. The window is opening in 2020 if Eppler gets the offseason right.
Then again, it may be best if we offer a tier two FA like Cole Hamels a two year deal as our third addition. I still think the best route is adding two FA SP’s and one trade SP to Ohtani, Heaney and Canning. My sense is this is the year to get it done, by trade or FA. Just get it done. 

I understand your point. Eppler is on the last year of his contract so it makes sense to shake it up and win. The Angels right now can afford Cole and maybe Wheeler. That leaves Eppler with the question of trading prospects for a third SP or signing one? The way I see it is if he wants to acquire a third SP then he can do it if Arte opens payroll to around $190M. Assuming he signs Cole and Wheeler then he'd backload their contracts a bit. The option below allows Eppler to reshape the rotation with two frontline starters and a backup piece while still keeping Marsh and allowing for he and others to develop. This also allows Upton to figure it out and get healthy. The Angels still won't be built for the World Series in 2020. That's why they need to hang on to Marsh still.

release Bour, Tropeano, Garcia: -$6.3M

Trade Bedrosian: -$2.8M (if necessary) 

Gerrit Cole: 7yr $217M ($26, $27M, $30M, $32M, $34M, $34M, $34M)

Zack Wheeler: 4yr $68M ($15M, $18M, $18M, $17M)

Cole Hamels: 1yr $8.5M

Martin Maldonado: 1yr $2.3M

Total payroll: $190.7M ($193.5M with Bedrosian).

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