Mike Leake

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

If the M's ate some cash (or took Cozart, who Jerry tried acquiring multiple times) and took Jahmai Jones back, I'd do it. 

He's due $15m next year, and a $5m buyout for 2021, lest his $18m option is picked up.

On the fantabulous baseball trade simulator, that would be Cozart, Jones (-5.8) for Leake (3.7)

Cozart has zero trade value, he has no shoulder and his career is over. No GM is s tarting any conversation if Cozart is in the mix.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

It's basically the same concept as when the Phillies took Matt Harrison from the Rangers in the Hamels deal, or when the Dodgers took Bailey on in the Puig deal. 

It wasn't interest in the player - it was balancing out money, roster space, and playing time for both teams to get the players they wanted in return in this case, Ward and Jones, for Leake.
Cozart's just a paper aspect to the deal, and maybe he comes to ST healthy and plays some UT IF defense for them. Not likely, but if any team would have interest, it would be Jerry since he tried trading for Cozart numerous times before, and that tends to be a thing of his.

Seattle isn't trading Leake to the Angels for Cozart...they're trading him to open up some money and get prospects, and taking back Cozart could be a part of that in order to facilitate the money and prospects they want. It has nothing to do with their interest in him.

If it is about a money trade then trade money but no team wants Cozart on the 60 day lL or clogging the 40 man roster.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

If it is about a money trade then trade money but no team wants Cozart on the 60 day lL or clogging the 40 man roster.

They won't have to keep him on the 40-man. They could DFA him the day they acquired him, or release him, like the Dodgers did with Bailey after paying his $22.5m remaining for the year.

Or, they can hang onto him or try to rehab him this offseason like the Phillies tried briefly with Harrison, and hope he gives them some depth in time.
Given how obsessive Dipoto can get in re-acquiring guys, it would make sense that instead of giving him the immediate Bailey DFA treatment, they'd possibly bring him to ST next year and see if he's got anything. 
Mariners have had no problem eating crazy money this year either.
 

[Vlad27Trout27]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

There's no way that would happen.
 

Dipoto would give much more than just Leake for Baldoquin.

shoot your right....

Haniger, Gilbert and Leake for Baldoquin

[DMVol]

5 hours ago, Lou said:

There is no way anyone is going to be interested in Cozart

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Again, Cozart isn’t what’s being traded. 

He’s just money with a name on it. 

[Taylor]

16 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Is that Benedict Cumberbatch as a teen?

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Is that Benedict Cumberbatch as a teen?

[Taylor]

Then it must be that kid from The Americans who looks like a younger clone of Cumberbatch.

[DMVol]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Again, Cozart isn’t what’s being traded. 

He’s just money with a name on it. 

Nice try.....he’s still not getting traded.....

[eligrba]

Dipoto can have back any of the players he drafted or signed while with the Angels for Leake.  Baldoquin and Ward are two that come to mind.

[totdprods]

13 hours ago, DMVol said:

Nice try.....he’s still not getting traded.....

Then that pretty much eliminates acquiring Mike Leake (which I'm fine with).

I highly doubt the Angels would willingly commit $11m+ of their payroll next year for Mike Leake. Money is too tight, and that same $11m is probably better risked on someone like Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Rick Porcello, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Michael Wacha in free agency. All of those guys have at least a comparable floor to Mike Leake, and a much higher ceiling than Leake has ever shown. 

And as far the Mariners eating most of the money instead? There's no way the Angels would part with quality prospects to a division rival in return for that.

We don't have any other contracts to shed money-wise, aside from Cozart, to get to a point where a Leake trade would make any sense. He certainly does fill a need - but not at the cost of $11m or Top 15 prospects. 
The only way it works is if the Angels can play on Dipoto's tendencies to prefer 'his guys' and offer up guys like Ward and Jones as trade bait - neither of whom have a ton of trade value right now, but enough to start discussing a Leake deal - and find a way to make the money work in a way that doesn't affect the Angels' 2020 spending.

So, instead of thinking of it as "lol no one would trade for Zack Cozart" it is really more like "Would Jahmai Jones and Taylor Ward for Mike Leake be a fair trade, with no money involved, the Angels 'releasing' Cozart - and the Mariners then inviting Cozart to ST?" because that's essentially how it would play out.
Given that Eppler's tried trading for him before, I would think they'd have no problem issuing him a 2020 ST invite of sorts.

Edited July 25, 2019 by totdprods

[Stradling]

43 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Dipoto can have back any of the players he drafted or signed while with the Angels for Leake.  Baldoquin and Ward are two that come to mind.

Pretty sure he drafted Fletcher but I could be wrong. 

[eligrba]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Pretty sure he drafted Fletcher but I could be wrong. 

Damn it.

Anyone but Fletcher.

[wopphil]

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Then that pretty much eliminates acquiring Mike Leake (which I'm fine with).

I highly doubt the Angels would willingly commit $11m+ of their payroll next year for Mike Leake. Money is too tight, and that same $11m is probably better risked on someone like Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Rick Porcello, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Michael Wacha in free agency. All of those guys have at least a comparable floor to Mike Leake, and a much higher ceiling than Leake has ever shown. 

 

They spent 30 million this year on Harvey, Cahill and Allen. You dont think they'd spend $11 on a guy who is clearly better than all three of those guys?

[Stradling]

Just now, wopphil said:

They spent 30 million this year on Harvey, Cahill and Allen. You dont think they'd spend $11 on a guy who is clearly better than all three of those guys?

When they are looking to add a front of the rotation arm it’s tough to add $11 million before knowing the cost of the significant upgrade. 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Pretty sure he drafted Fletcher but I could be wrong. 

Yup. Ward, Jones, Fletcher, Walsh, Hofacket, Vega, Bertness, Herrin all taken in the '15 draft the org and have some form of value. 
Bo Way, Jeremy Rhoades, Jake Jewell, Joe Gatto, Justin Anderson, Keynan Middleton, Michael Hermosillo also prior Dipoto draftees.

Barria and Suarez were both amateur signees in the Dipoto years.
Hector Yan was signed a month after Dipoto quit, but his guys probably did the legwork on him.

Edited July 25, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

26 minutes ago, wopphil said:

They spent 30 million this year on Harvey, Cahill and Allen. You dont think they'd spend $11 on a guy who is clearly better than all three of those guys?

What @Stradling said. 2020 is a whole different offseason compared to last year.

Also, 2018 Harvey and Cahill were about on par with Leake...

Edited July 25, 2019 by totdprods

[DMVol]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Then that pretty much eliminates acquiring Mike Leake (which I'm fine with).

I highly doubt the Angels would willingly commit $11m+ of their payroll next year for Mike Leake. Money is too tight, and that same $11m is probably better risked on someone like Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Rick Porcello, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Michael Wacha in free agency. All of those guys have at least a comparable floor to Mike Leake, and a much higher ceiling than Leake has ever shown. 

And as far the Mariners eating most of the money instead? There's no way the Angels would part with quality prospects to a division rival in return for that.

We don't have any other contracts to shed money-wise, aside from Cozart, to get to a point where a Leake trade would make any sense. He certainly does fill a need - but not at the cost of $11m or Top 15 prospects. 
The only way it works is if the Angels can play on Dipoto's tendencies to prefer 'his guys' and offer up guys like Ward and Jones as trade bait - neither of whom have a ton of trade value right now, but enough to start discussing a Leake deal - and find a way to make the money work in a way that doesn't affect the Angels' 2020 spending.

So, instead of thinking of it as "lol no one would trade for Zack Cozart" it is really more like "Would Jahmai Jones and Taylor Ward for Mike Leake be a fair trade, with no money involved, the Angels 'releasing' Cozart - and the Mariners then inviting Cozart to ST?" because that's essentially how it would play out.
Given that Eppler's tried trading for him before, I would think they'd have no problem issuing him a 2020 ST invite of sorts.

Agree to disagree...I don’t think we have to be boxed in by Cozart’s money to make a deal...obviously taking on any new money would limit somewhat what we could do in the offseason for sure, so you would need to like anybody we pick up...

[Angel Oracle]

Leake and Lynn are two different pitchers.   Both are close in age (31 vs 32).

Leake does not strike batters out (6.7/9 inn in 2019, 6.1/9 inn for career so far).     His control is really good (1.3 BBs/9 inn in 2019, 2.0 BBs/9 inn for career so far).  

But, he is susceptible to the long ball (25 HRs in 131 inn so far in 2019).

Lynn has 213 Ks in 189 inn since being acquired by the Yankees a year ago.   He's also really improved his command (only 15 HRs and 45 BBs in those same 189 innings).

In Leake's defense, the M's defense is offensive to their fans.    Put a real MLB defense behind Leake, and maybe he improves his peripherals? 

But it still comes back to the HRs allowed.   25 HRs in 131 innings is a lot to give up. 

[Ender]

We don't want Cozart. We don't need Cozart. Who put this in your head that we want Cozart? Where would he even play?

We already have shitty overpriced veteran at 3B and JP Crawford isn't moving off SS. 2B is for Shed Long when Dee Gordon is eventually traded or gone.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Ender said:

We don't want Cozart. We don't need Cozart. Who put this in your head that we want Cozart? Where would he even play?

We already have shitty overpriced veteran at 3B and JP Crawford isn't moving off SS. 2B is for Shed Long when Dee Gordon is eventually traded or gone.

Would you trade Leake for Ward and Jones and eat virtually all of Leake's money?

[Ender]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Would you trade Leake for Ward and Jones and eat virtually all of Leake's money?

I dunno. I'm not Jerry Dipoto. They have shown they don't care about eating contracts to get players of value though to move bigger contracts.

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Ender said:

I dunno. I'm not Jerry Dipoto. They have shown they don't care about eating contracts to get players of value though to move bigger contracts.

This is where Cozart comes in. It's blowing my mind that everyone keeps coming back to whether or not Seattle wants Cozart or would want to play him.
I guarantee the Dodgers didn't for a second expect to pay Homer Bailey $22.5m to take up a rotation spot for them. It was just a pile of money delivered in a suitcase with his contract laying on top. 

It's the same thing here. Cozart isn't really Cozart. It's a pile of $12m, with his contract/rights on top. 

The Mariners seemingly want to part with Mike Leake, and Mike Leake wants to part with the Mariners, but interest is minimal - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/report-minimal-interest-in-mike-leake.html

Should the Angels have interest in Mike Leake, they might be one of the few, and the best way for Seattle to part with Leake. 
BUT, the Angels won't want to spend $11m on Mike Leake - not when they can gamble that same money in FA for an arm with more upside. 
That could change though, if the Angels were able to basically swap the $12m that Cozart makes with ~$12m that Leake makes.
The problem now is the Mariners are stuck with a $12m Cozart they don't want - and Leake is already more valuable than Cozart. 
Leake doesn't want to be there so they rid themselves of his mediocre value and potential brewing friction. That's a positive.
And they don't want Cozart, but that was never their target. He was just the money to even out that part of the deal so the Angels would be willing to take Leake's contract.
They can release Cozart the day after the trade is made. Eating that money isn't an issue, as you pointed out. 
So what makes up that difference? Taylor Ward and Jahmai Jones. That's who Dipoto wants, and is presumably better than any other deal they could have gotten for Leake, especially considering there's little interest.

It re-appropriates the Angels $12m currently tied to a sunk-cost in Cozart into a slightly better, but mediocre, value in Leake, addressing a need without touching the ~$23m they have to spend this winter, or $30m+ when/if Calhoun is declined.

Basically, the Mariners are paying $12m for Taylor Ward and Jahmai Jones. 
And then they're swapping the contracts of Leake and Cozart. 
The Mariners can cut Cozart, because they didn't really care. Or, since they're paying him already (and Dipoto liked him once) maybe they keep him around until ST and see what's up. And then cut him. 

Cozart's just a name with paper in all of this. No value. No playing time. No interest. Just paper.
Just like Homer Bailey's $22m or Matt Harrison's $39m. That was just the price tag of the prospect/player currency they were making up elsewhere.

FWIW, in that stupid trade value simulator, Jones and Ward come out to $12m. I didn't look that up until after the fact, but it made me laugh at the coincidence.

Edited July 25, 2019 by totdprods

[Lou]

tot, I highly doubt the M's want to eat $12M next year on Cozart. That would put them at $32M of dead money in 2020. 

There are contending teams out there that would do a deal without insisting on them taking back $12M of absolute garbage.