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OC Register: Alexander: Are the Angels starting to make a wild-card run?


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ANAHEIM — Let’s take emotion out of it for a bit, even though it could be argued that the Angels have run on extra emotion and energy since the tragic death of teammate Tyler Skaggs.

And let’s discount, for a moment, a post-All-Star break sweep of the Seattle Mariners, who are a bad enough baseball team that you wonder how General Manager Jerry DiPoto still has a job.

But the fact is that the Angels have now won five in a row and eight of their last 11 games after Tuesday night’s 7-2 decision over the Houston Astros, who have seen what was once a 10-game lead in the AL West chopped to 4½ in the last five weeks and have enough of an unsettled pitching situation that they’ve had to use an “opener” two nights in a row.

And so it must be asked: Are the Angels hoisting themselves back into the wild card race?

The answer, if you look strictly at the numbers? “Meh.”

On July 1, the day Skaggs died, they were 4½ games out of the second wild-card spot with a 42-43 record, with the Indians, A’s and Red Sox between them and that spot. They are now 50-46 … but still 4½ games out, though with just two teams (the Red Sox and Rangers) between them and the second spot that now belongs to the A’s.

Which illustrates, again, the difficulty of having to pass multiple teams to get where you need to go.

(For what it’s worth, they were 11 behind the Astros on July 1, and now sit nine back after winning the first two of this series.)

Beyond the numbers? There might be something there.

Mike Trout’s calf injury notwithstanding – and the two-time MVP sounds pretty confident he’ll be back in the lineup soon, possibly as early as Wednesday – the Angels’ health status brightened considerably when left fielder Justin Upton returned from the injured list June 17 and shortstop Andrelton Simmons came off it 10 days later.

With Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Upton in the 2-3-4 spots and Albert Pujols – who had a three-run double in the first inning on Tuesday night – lurking further down in the order, it’s a lineup that can severely test most pitching staffs.

“You saw it (Monday) night, a lot of energy coming from a lot of guys,” Trout said before the game, in reference to the Angels’ 9-6 come-from-behind victory in the series opener. “It’s not one guy. It’s one through nine.”

Pujols’ bases-clearing double Tuesday night, incidentally, was part of a six-run first inning in which the Angels sent 10 men to the plate and Astros closer Hector Rendon couldn’t get the third out. That ensured that the Angels would score at least six runs in six straight games.

“When they put their best lineup out there and when they have their pitching healthy, they’ve always been considered a good team,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said before the game. “It obviously starts with Trout and goes to a lot of different places on the field where they have an above-average player.

“I don’t think we’ve ever taken them lightly. I don’t think the league ever takes them lightly. Health is always important for all teams, and they’ve had their own fair share of issues, not keeping their players on the field. But, again, their best team is really good.”

If an opposing manager says it … well, it could usually be construed as a certain amount of apple polishing, although Hinch is a fairly straightforward guy.

If the Angels themselves believe it – truly, deep down, and not just mouthing the correct clichés – this could be an interesting and entertaining final 66 games.

Health, of course, is relative. Jonathan Lucroy is on the IL after his violent collision with Jake Marisnick in Houston (which led to Marisnick, who went to high school a little more than a half-hour up the 91 freeway at Riverside Poly, getting booed loudly on every plate appearance and later getting hit between the shoulder blades by a Noe Ramirez pitch). Zack Cozart is done for the season and will have surgery to repair a torn labrum. Tommy La Stella, who had an All-Star first half, will be out several more weeks with a fractured right tibia.

And, of course, there is that gaping hole in the starting rotation, as well as in the Angels’ hearts.

But maybe energy and passion will carry the day.

“A lot of it is that our offense has clicked,” Manager Brad Ausmus said before the game. “When you have your offense clicking, you have guys on base, you’re rounding the bases, you’re scoring, you’re high-fiving in the dugout. So that leads to a lot more energy, yeah.”

That’s another way of saying that at least six runs a night doesn’t hurt, either.

jalexander@scng.com

@Jim_Alexander on Twitter

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It's a bit unfortunate that almost every team in the AL wild card race has played well lately. Stranger things have happened, but there's so many teams ahead of the Angels.... it's gonna be tough.  

The Angels have a 1/2 game better record than the second NL wild card team.... the Phillies.  Only one team in the NL is more than 5.5 games back of the playoffs.  Wacky.

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Assuming Texas  keeps faltering, they would still have to beat out 3 of the group of Boston, Oakland, Cleveland & Tampa Bay just to get into a one game playoff. Offensively, they're fine. Starting pitching wise, they're not. Do you sacrifice any legitimate prospects to go out and get some starting pitching with an extremely low chance of making the Wild Card game? Who would they even start in that game? If they had a realistic chance to catch Houston, I'd say take a shot, but don't sacrifice the future trying to pull an inside straight. I'd like to see this offense, plus add a couple of legitimate starting pitchers to add to  Ohtani's return to the rotation next season and that should be something special.

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Rest of the season outlook, I'm not buying it. Yeah, the offense is good....but the Angels still have the same problem they've had for 4 years now....pitching. Skaggs is gone, Canning isn't himself lately,  Shohei isn't an option....

It's not enough. 

Granted, the Athletics aren't that good. They will falter. The Rangers aren't that good either. I'd even go so far as saying the Angels are better than both of them.  But the Red Sox, Rays and Indians ARE that good. The Sox pen will stabilize soon with Eovaldi coming back and Barnes getting his head on straight. The Rays have a never ending supply of good young players ready to step in and deliver, and the Indians got Clevinger back, are about to get Kluber back and are going to be rocking a rotation with Bauer, Bieber, Kluber and Clevinger.

The Angels just can't compete with any of that,  not until next year at least, and even then, that's going to require having Shohei back plus getting Gerrit Cole, and getting healthy, stay performances from Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Suarez, Pena.

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21 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Rest of the season outlook, I'm not buying it. Yeah, the offense is good....but the Angels still have the same problem they've had for 4 years now....pitching. Skaggs is gone, Canning isn't himself lately,  Shohei isn't an option....

It's not enough. 

Granted, the Athletics aren't that good. They will falter. The Rangers aren't that good either. I'd even go so far as saying the Angels are better than both of them.  But the Red Sox, Rays and Indians ARE that good. The Sox pen will stabilize soon with Eovaldi coming back and Barnes getting his head on straight. The Rays have a never ending supply of good young players ready to step in and deliver, and the Indians got Clevinger back, are about to get Kluber back and are going to be rocking a rotation with Bauer, Bieber, Kluber and Clevinger.

The Angels just can't compete with any of that,  not until next year at least, and even then, that's going to require having Shohei back plus getting Gerrit Cole, and getting healthy, stay performances from Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Suarez, Pena.

If we can get anything from Skaggs next year, it will be a freaking miracle! 

right now, we have Houston on the ropes for this 4 game set. we need take at least 1 of the 2 remaining games. Lets do it boys! if we sweep, Arte and Eppler will have to grab some pitching. just no way around it. the stars are aligned at the moment

 

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5 hours ago, gurn67 said:

Assuming Texas  keeps faltering, they would still have to beat out 3 of the group of Boston, Oakland, Cleveland & Tampa Bay just to get into a one game playoff. Offensively, they're fine. Starting pitching wise, they're not. Do you sacrifice any legitimate prospects to go out and get some starting pitching with an extremely low chance of making the Wild Card game? Who would they even start in that game? If they had a realistic chance to catch Houston, I'd say take a shot, but don't sacrifice the future trying to pull an inside straight. I'd like to see this offense, plus add a couple of legitimate starting pitchers to add to  Ohtani's return to the rotation next season and that should be something special.

My guess is that they would start whichever pitcher they might acquire. He would probably be the best or second-best starter on this team, whomever it is.

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1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Rest of the season outlook, I'm not buying it. Yeah, the offense is good....but the Angels still have the same problem they've had for 4 years now....pitching. Skaggs is gone, Canning isn't himself lately,  Shohei isn't an option....

It's not enough. 

Granted, the Athletics aren't that good. They will falter. The Rangers aren't that good either. I'd even go so far as saying the Angels are better than both of them.  But the Red Sox, Rays and Indians ARE that good. The Sox pen will stabilize soon with Eovaldi coming back and Barnes getting his head on straight. The Rays have a never ending supply of good young players ready to step in and deliver, and the Indians got Clevinger back, are about to get Kluber back and are going to be rocking a rotation with Bauer, Bieber, Kluber and Clevinger.

The Angels just can't compete with any of that,  not until next year at least, and even then, that's going to require having Shohei back plus getting Gerrit Cole, and getting healthy, stay performances from Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Suarez, Pena.

Weren't we saying the same thing about the A's last year?

I do think we have a realistic shot at the 2nd wild card. The Indians' rotation has been decimated by injuries and leukemia. The Red Sox are missing Craig Kimbrel, and we'll see how the whole Eovaldi-as-closer thing works out (it just might work out pretty well for them). The Rays are as good as advertised. They've got some good young talent (and some clean peanuts--such as Yandy Diaz), but they're still a little thin on pitching. If something happens to one of their pitchers...

I think we should explore trading for starting pitchers that we know we'll have beyond this year. No rentals.

It sets us up to have a nice rotation next year, especially if we get a free agent pitcher (yes, it's only money) the likes of Gerrit Cole. Remember, Ohtani will be on an innings limit coming back from TJ surgery. 

We have a chance, but only if we make the right move. If we can't, then we punt this year and set ourselves up for 2020.

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40 minutes ago, Dick B Back said:

I love this line:

“the Seattle Mariners, who are a bad enough baseball team that you wonder how General Manager Jerry DiPoto still has a job.”

I gotta say, I think that was also my favorite. And the best part, because of their hot start last year, both Dipoto and Servais got three year extensions.

Seattle is stuck with the worst front office in baseball for another three seasons. Their ineptitude is going to prevent that organization from being even remotely competitive until at the very minimum, 2025. Realistically, even if they replace Dipoto for the 2022 season, it will take them 5 years to rebuild that farm at he decimates it (Eppler is a miracle worker and did it in 3). And then a year or two after that for the prospect to manifest in actual MLB players. 

It may be 2030 before the Mariners make the playoffs again, which would be a 29 year playoff drought. 

If you think it's bad being an Angels fan because we've made the playoffs once in the last decade and got swept, just imagine tripling that without the sweep. Just brutal. 

Jerry Dipoto is a sickness for MLB teams. Screwed up the D-Backs trade deadline, and they were smart enough to dispose of him early, then he cripples the Angels for nearly a decade because of his spending woes and inability to build a farm, then spends a few months in Boston, just long enough for them to realize he can't stay, then goes to Seattle to wreck them.

God help the poor bastards that employ him after Seattle.

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@Second Base Have you consider optimism?

I know the Angels are not necessarily as good as the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox, but in a one game playoff, who knows. They can compete. I said they needed two starters before Skaggs' untimely passing (#RIP45) but I think they're going to have to make do with one or two, not three and have to hope that Harvey pitches well.

A rotation of #1 Starter Acquisition, #2 Ohtani, #3 FA Starter/Harvey/Midlevel Guy., #4 Heaney, #5 Canning, #6 Suarez/Pena/Barria/Sandoval/Farmhand TBD is a lot better than relying on the farm to fill out a rotation. I've pretty much given up on Tropeano, Bridwell, and JC Ramirez TBH.

And I like Gerritt Cole Since he transformed in Houston, but there will be a lot of competition for his services.

If they acquire a guy who is controllable for 2-3 more seasons after this one, it would be a boon to this year and next. If they get a rental, they'd be forced to try and bring him back and/or get a guy like Cole, and/or resign Harvey.

My picks are the same as they were a month ago. Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke.

Packages for either guy aren't going to be elite top prospects because Bumgarner isn't quite the guy he used to be, but at 29 is still salvageable. Greinke is 35, is owed over $75M and has a 15 team no trade clause.

It's gonna take a decent prospect, and a few lower tier guys. Similar to the Yu Darvish trade. A guy at the bottom of the top 100, (Willie Calhoun), and two lower tier guys should get it done. Darvish was also pitching better than Bumgarner. If they added in Lefty Will Smith, it would be a similar haul, maybe a bit better than the package the Rangers received for Darvish.

So, say: Jordyn Adams or Marsh (as thy both rank in the 90's) or Suarez plus Luis Garcia & two guys in the 20-40 prospect range for Bumgarner AND SMITH.

For Greinke the haul may have to include some salary offset, mainly Trevor Cahill. I'd expect Arizona to eat some money if they want a prospect better than say Barria as the centerpiece of the trade. Say they eat the deferred money, then you probably part with Barria and a guy like Jones. Maybe a guy like Taylor Ward too. If Thaiss is gonna be at 3rd, along with All Star 30 year old LaStella, and Rengifo plus Fletcher, I don't know where they all play. Thaiss being a left 1st and 3rd guy helps significantly, but there is a lot of depth to part with.

But you'd be getting two of the best pitchers in Greinke, and Bumgarner, plus a solid reliever in Smith.

Yes you'd be taking on some serious salary for 2019.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Second Base said:

Rest of the season outlook, I'm not buying it. Yeah, the offense is good....but the Angels still have the same problem they've had for 4 years now....pitching. Skaggs is gone, Canning isn't himself lately,  Shohei isn't an option....

It's not enough. 

Granted, the Athletics aren't that good. They will falter. The Rangers aren't that good either. I'd even go so far as saying the Angels are better than both of them.  But the Red Sox, Rays and Indians ARE that good. The Sox pen will stabilize soon with Eovaldi coming back and Barnes getting his head on straight. The Rays have a never ending supply of good young players ready to step in and deliver, and the Indians got Clevinger back, are about to get Kluber back and are going to be rocking a rotation with Bauer, Bieber, Kluber and Clevinger.

The Angels just can't compete with any of that,  not until next year at least, and even then, that's going to require having Shohei back plus getting Gerrit Cole, and getting healthy, stay performances from Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Suarez, Pena.

The good news is that by 2021, the Angels org will look like the Rays org does currently, depth everywhere.   Just need a #1, or even a #2, starter to lead the rotation while they are getting more innings along with getting durability and command under control.   With the right #1 or #2, this is a rotation with solid potential by 2021.   That is the season to look to for yearly AL West/AL in general contention. 

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2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I gotta say, I think that was also my favorite. And the best part, because of their hot start last year, both Dipoto and Servais got three year extensions.

Seattle is stuck with the worst front office in baseball for another three seasons. Their ineptitude is going to prevent that organization from being even remotely competitive until at the very minimum, 2025. Realistically, even if they replace Dipoto for the 2022 season, it will take them 5 years to rebuild that farm at he decimates it (Eppler is a miracle worker and did it in 3). And then a year or two after that for the prospect to manifest in actual MLB players. 

It may be 2030 before the Mariners make the playoffs again, which would be a 29 year playoff drought. 

If you think it's bad being an Angels fan because we've made the playoffs once in the last decade and got swept, just imagine tripling that without the sweep. Just brutal. 

Jerry Dipoto is a sickness for MLB teams. Screwed up the D-Backs trade deadline, and they were smart enough to dispose of him early, then he cripples the Angels for nearly a decade because of his spending woes and inability to build a farm, then spends a few months in Boston, just long enough for them to realize he can't stay, then goes to Seattle to wreck them.

God help the poor bastards that employ him after Seattle.

Blackmail the Dogs or Astros into hiring him.

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

@Second Base Have you consider optimism?

I know the Angels are not necessarily as good as the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox, but in a one game playoff, who knows. They can compete. I said they needed two starters before Skaggs' untimely passing (#RIP45) but I think they're going to have to make do with one or two, not three and have to hope that Harvey pitches well.

A rotation of #1 Starter Acquisition, #2 Ohtani, #3 FA Starter/Harvey/Midlevel Guy., #4 Heaney, #5 Canning, #6 Suarez/Pena/Barria/Sandoval/Farmhand TBD is a lot better than relying on the farm to fill out a rotation. I've pretty much given up on Tropeano, Bridwell, and JC Ramirez TBH.

And I like Gerritt Cole Since he transformed in Houston, but there will be a lot of competition for his services.

If they acquire a guy who is controllable for 2-3 more seasons after this one, it would be a boon to this year and next. If they get a rental, they'd be forced to try and bring him back and/or get a guy like Cole, and/or resign Harvey.

My picks are the same as they were a month ago. Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke.

Packages for either guy aren't going to be elite top prospects because Bumgarner isn't quite the guy he used to be, but at 29 is still salvageable. Greinke is 35, is owed over $75M and has a 15 team no trade clause.

It's gonna take a decent prospect, and a few lower tier guys. Similar to the Yu Darvish trade. A guy at the bottom of the top 100, (Willie Calhoun), and two lower tier guys should get it done. Darvish was also pitching better than Bumgarner. If they added in Lefty Will Smith, it would be a similar haul, maybe a bit better than the package the Rangers received for Darvish.

So, say: Jordyn Adams or Marsh (as thy both rank in the 90's) or Suarez plus Luis Garcia & two guys in the 20-40 prospect range for Bumgarner AND SMITH.

For Greinke the haul may have to include some salary offset, mainly Trevor Cahill. I'd expect Arizona to eat some money if they want a prospect better than say Barria as the centerpiece of the trade. Say they eat the deferred money, then you probably part with Barria and a guy like Jones. Maybe a guy like Taylor Ward too. If Thaiss is gonna be at 3rd, along with All Star 30 year old LaStella, and Rengifo plus Fletcher, I don't know where they all play. Thaiss being a left 1st and 3rd guy helps significantly, but there is a lot of depth to part with.

But you'd be getting two of the best pitchers in Greinke, and Bumgarner, plus a solid reliever in Smith.

Yes you'd be taking on some serious salary for 2019.

 

 

I have seen much worse Angel rotations than what a Greinke, Otani, Bumgarner, Heaney, Canning, Suarez rotation would look like. 

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

@Second Base Have you consider optimism?

I know the Angels are not necessarily as good as the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox, but in a one game playoff, who knows. They can compete. I said they needed two starters before Skaggs' untimely passing (#RIP45) but I think they're going to have to make do with one or two, not three and have to hope that Harvey pitches well.

A rotation of #1 Starter Acquisition, #2 Ohtani, #3 FA Starter/Harvey/Midlevel Guy., #4 Heaney, #5 Canning, #6 Suarez/Pena/Barria/Sandoval/Farmhand TBD is a lot better than relying on the farm to fill out a rotation. I've pretty much given up on Tropeano, Bridwell, and JC Ramirez TBH.

And I like Gerritt Cole Since he transformed in Houston, but there will be a lot of competition for his services.

If they acquire a guy who is controllable for 2-3 more seasons after this one, it would be a boon to this year and next. If they get a rental, they'd be forced to try and bring him back and/or get a guy like Cole, and/or resign Harvey.

My picks are the same as they were a month ago. Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke.

Packages for either guy aren't going to be elite top prospects because Bumgarner isn't quite the guy he used to be, but at 29 is still salvageable. Greinke is 35, is owed over $75M and has a 15 team no trade clause.

It's gonna take a decent prospect, and a few lower tier guys. Similar to the Yu Darvish trade. A guy at the bottom of the top 100, (Willie Calhoun), and two lower tier guys should get it done. Darvish was also pitching better than Bumgarner. If they added in Lefty Will Smith, it would be a similar haul, maybe a bit better than the package the Rangers received for Darvish.

So, say: Jordyn Adams or Marsh (as thy both rank in the 90's) or Suarez plus Luis Garcia & two guys in the 20-40 prospect range for Bumgarner AND SMITH.

For Greinke the haul may have to include some salary offset, mainly Trevor Cahill. I'd expect Arizona to eat some money if they want a prospect better than say Barria as the centerpiece of the trade. Say they eat the deferred money, then you probably part with Barria and a guy like Jones. Maybe a guy like Taylor Ward too. If Thaiss is gonna be at 3rd, along with All Star 30 year old LaStella, and Rengifo plus Fletcher, I don't know where they all play. Thaiss being a left 1st and 3rd guy helps significantly, but there is a lot of depth to part with.

But you'd be getting two of the best pitchers in Greinke, and Bumgarner, plus a solid reliever in Smith.

Yes you'd be taking on some serious salary for 2019.

 

 

This is maybe one of the worst trade ideas I’ve ever heard (not quite ‘Trade Trout’ level, but geez...). Bumgarner is an upcoming FA. Why in hell would you give them Marsh for Bumgarner and a bullpen piece we don’t need? If I could downvote this fifty times, I would. It’s truly abysmal. 

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1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

This is maybe one of the worst trade ideas I’ve ever heard (not quite ‘Trade Trout’ level, but geez...). Bumgarner is an upcoming FA. Why in hell would you give them Marsh for Bumgarner and a bullpen piece we don’t need? If I could downvote this fifty times, I would. It’s truly abysmal. 

You have to give to get. Marsh is ranked near what the Rangers got for Darvish when they traded him to the Dodgers. (Willie Calhoun)

This is nothing close to trading Trout. There is no where to play Adell right now, let alone Marsh. Marsh is in Double A hitting just .797.

I'd rather not trade him, but I'd like to go to the playoffs, too. Rosenthal said they could get any pitcher they wanted for him though, so maybe his value is more than I thought.

You're probably right that they wouldn't trade Adell, Marsh or Canning for a guy like Bumgarner. But they'd need to give up something, and even for a rental, that would probably be a #4-#10 prospect.

Darvish was pitching better (4.01 ERA /  3.38 FIP) than Bumgarner  (3.84 ERA / 3.80 FIP).

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

You have to give to get. Marsh is ranked near what the Rangers got for Darvish when they traded him to the Dodgers. (Willie Calhoun)

This is nothing close to trading Trout. There is no where to play Adell right now, let alone Marsh. Marsh is in Double A hitting just .797.

I'd rather not trade him, but I'd like to go to the playoffs, too. Rosenthal said they could get any pitcher they wanted for him though, so maybe his value is more than I thought.

You're probably right that they wouldn't trade Adell, Marsh or Canning for a guy like Bumgarner. But they'd need to give up something, and even for a rental, that would probably be a #4-#10 prospect.

Darvish was pitching better (4.01 ERA /  3.38 FIP) than Bumgarner  (3.84 ERA / 3.80 FIP).

 

 

 

We are not in a position to spend on a rental. That kind of spending is now Dipooto neutered this team. Only way we should be spending is for asset beyond this year. That isn’t Bumgarner. Given his known strong preference for the NL, it’s highly likely he would not re-sign in the offseason. Also, despite his age, he’s clearly not as good as he used to be. Hardest of passes. 

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Agree to disagree.

You don't think they're in the position to spend on a rental. I say the guys who are cost controlled are going to be even more expensive (it would cost Marsh for sure, for a guy like Boyd). 

Plus there is a lot of teams looking for pitching. If they can get Bumgarner AND Smith for a package centered around Jam Jones or Adams, I say do it.

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Agree to disagree.

You don't think they're in the position to spend on a rental. I say the guys who are cost controlled are going to be even more expensive (it would cost Marsh for sure, for a guy like Boyd). 

Plus there is a lot of teams looking for pitching. If they can get Bumgarner AND Smith for a package centered around Jam Jones or Adams, I say do it.

You literally said Marsh was an acceptable centerpiece for that deal. Quit moving the goalposts. Sure, it would cost Marsh for like Boyd  Boyd =/= Bumgarner.

Also, trading Adams doesn’t make sense at this point. It’s too early to project how good he may be. 

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It's also worth noting, that Bumgarner would instantly be our best pitcher, by a long shot. We could resign him in the off-season. He's cheap.

I was hemming and hawing over Marsh, because while I've seen him mentioned here for years, and I know we're high on him. I'm not moving the goal posts. He is the highest rated trade chip, that we legitimately do not have a place to play.

Thaiss was that guy, before they moved him to 3rd, and before they resigned Mike Trout for the rest of his career.

 

 

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