Most recent FA pitcher to actually be worth that new contract?

[Angel Oracle]

Which previous big money FA pitchers, that signed with a different team, truly came remotely close enough to living up to their new contract over the years?

I can't think of any from this decade.

Will it be wise then to sign either a Cole this off-season or Bauer after 2020, based on that?   

[m0nkey]

Scherzer definitely has 

[beatlesrule]

Scherzer. Verlander. They count?

[Angel Oracle]

5 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Scherzer. Verlander. They count?

Verlander was acquired via trade.

Scherzer is the only one that comes to mind this decade.     And maybe even going back into the 2000s?

Scherzer has averaged 217 regular season innings since 2010, and yet stays healthy.   What is his secret?  

[Stradling]

For multiple years?  Scherzer.  

[beatlesrule]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Verlander was acquired via trade.

Scherzer is the only one that comes to mind this decade.     

Okay but he did technically sign with a new team

[m0nkey]

$34 million a year is a lot, but Greinke has been good too after his first year of his contract.

[floplag]

its very telling that some of the most knowledgeable folks i know regarding this game can come up with only one name.

[eligrba]

21 minutes ago, floplag said:

its very telling that some of the most knowledgeable folks i know regarding this game can come up with only one name.

But that doesn't stop lots of people from blaming Eppler for signing shitty pitchers.

[Troll Daddy]

Kershaw extension was money well spent 

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, eligrba said:

But that doesn't stop lots of people from blaming Eppler for signing shitty pitchers.

Well he did so...  
To be honest though i dont think thats the type of pitcher were talking about here, i think the point of the thread was more around top flight guys not semi clean peanuts. 

[m0nkey]

27 minutes ago, floplag said:

its very telling that some of the most knowledgeable folks i know regarding this game can come up with only one name.

Thank you, you are far too kind 

[Mark68]

Jon Lester

[Mark68]

CC Sabathia (for the better part of his first Yankees contract)

[Mark68]

Greinke (both with the Dodgers & D-Backs)

[Stradling]

20 minutes ago, eligrba said:

But that doesn't stop lots of people from blaming Eppler for signing shitty pitchers.

Ding Ding Ding, we have a winner. 

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

CC Sabathia (for the better part of his first Yankees contract)

For the most part.  I think it was an 8 year deal and he had a three year run where his WAR was 

0

-.6

1.2

But for the life of that contract he had a pretty good WAR 27 or so.

[mmc]

UFAs are always overpaid.  This shouldn't surprise anyone.  It's like getting snacks at the movie theater, you know you're overpaying but if you're hungry enough, you'll go for it anyways.  To answer your question, Scherzer, Lester, Greinke, Kershaw.  Morton and Corbin from this past offseason look good so far.  

[Stradling]

13 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

UFAs are always overpaid.  This shouldn't surprise anyone.  It's like getting snacks at the movie theater, you know you're overpaying but if you're hungry enough, you'll go for it anyways.  To answer your question, Scherzer, Lester, Greinke, Kershaw.  Morton and Corbin from this past offseason look good so far.  

Your comparison would be a lot more accurate if you included, sometimes you buy a snickers and inside the package is a piece of shit.  Because yea, that is what free agency has been like for starting pitchers.  Kershaw was never a free agent.  Corbin has 5 3/4 years to prove the trend continues.  Morton doesn’t really count because we aren’t talking about short term deals.  Lester qualifies.  Greinke does so far and did with his Dodger contract, but the remainder of that deal will be awful as he is still owed about $125 million for the next three years after factoring in the deferred money.  

[m0nkey]

If Max Scherzer's career ended today due to injury, he would have earned $6.5 million per baseball reference WAR. 

He still has 2.5+ years to go too.

[Docwaukee]

here's a post I made in December of 2018:

deals of 3 years or greater for non ace pitchers over the age of 30 going back to 2006

Jason Schmidt 3/47
Jeff Suppan 4/42
Ted Lilly 4/40
Migeul Batista 3/25 
AJ Burnett 5/82.5
Ryan Dempster 4/52
Kenshin Kawakami 2/23
John Lackey 5/82
Randy Wolf 3/30
CJ Wilson 5/77.5
Mark Buehrle 4/58
Jeremy Guthrie 3/25
Ricky Nolasco 4/49
James Shields 4/75
Ervin Santana 4/55
Brandon McCarthy 4/48
Francisco Liriano 3/39
Johnny Cueto 6/130
Jordan Zimmermann 5/110
Jeff Samardzija 5/90
Wei-Yin Chen 5/80
Ian Kennedy 5/70
Scott Kazmir 3/48
JA Happ 3/36
Rich Hill 3/48
Yu Darvish 6/126
Jake Arrieta 3/75
Alex Cobb 4/57
Lance Lynn 3/30

Others for guys that were under 30 at the time of signing (non ace)

Barry Zito 7/126
Gil Meche 5/55
Jason Marquis 3/21
Kei Igawa 5/20
Carlos Silva 4/48
Yu Darvish 6/60
Wei - Yin Chen 3/11.3
Anibal Sanchez 5/80
Edwin Jackson 4/52
Hyun-Jin Ryu 6/36
Masahiro Tanaka 7/155
Matt Garza 4/50
Ubaldo Jimenez 4/48
Jason Vargas 4/32
Scott Feldman 3/30
Mike Leake 5/80
Ivan Nova 3/26
Tyler Chatwood 3/38
Mike Minor 3/28
Pat Corbin 6/140
Nate Eovaldi 4/67.5

Ace types pitchers over that period

CC Sabathia 7/161
Cliff Lee 5/120
Zack Greinke 6/147
Max Scherzer 7/210
Jon Lester 6/155
David Price 7/217
Zack Greinke 6/206

It's clear that free agent starting pitching of 3 years or more is a bad bet.  Anything 4 years or more is a terrible bet. Especially for guys starting the contract at 30 or older.  

updates for recent off season:

Corbin 6/140
Eovali 4/67.5
Yusei Kikuchi 3/43
Lance Lynn 3/30
Keuchel remains unsigned.  

forgot to mention earlier that the best bets were Asian players in their first contract.  

[Blarg]

4 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Kershaw extension was money well spent 

He was never a free agent.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

He was never a free agent.

And it probably wasn’t well spent money, but it beats losing him I guess.  

[GrittyVeterans]

Tanaka, Lester, Scherzer, Ryu, Morton

The jury is still out on Corbin

[beatlesrule]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

And it probably wasn’t well spent money, but it beats losing him I guess.  

It is for the regular season.