Nats interested in Keuchel

[Dtwncbad]

Holy shit.  They would have Scherzer, Keuchel, Strasberg, and Corbin.

So their #4 would be the Angels #1.

Wow.

 

[Stradling]

That would be cool for them, but am I crazy to think they should spend that money on Kimbrel instead?  

[OregonLAA]

Nah. When has a bad bullpen ever hurt the Nationals?

[Docwaukee]

Heaney and Skaggs will outperform Keuchel and possibly Corbin in 2019.  Health permitting.  

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

That would be cool for them, but am I crazy to think they should spend that money on Kimbrel instead?  

I personally cannot give you an unbiased answer on this one.

I hate Kimbrel.  I find his little hang-my-arm narcissist personal branding strategy to be obnoxious and annoying.  And from a guy in a Red Sox uniform?  Yeah, I can't view him fairly.

Justice would be he loses that arm in a farming accident where he is laying on the ground looking up at his own arm stuck on a piece of farm equipment in that same obnoxious position.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I personally cannot give you an unbiased answer on this one.

I hate Kimbrel.  I find his little hang-my-arm narcissist personal branding strategy to be obnoxious and annoying.  And from a guy in a Red Sox uniform?  Yeah, I can't view him fairly.

Justice would be he loses that arm in a farming accident where he is laying on the ground looking up at his own arm stuck on a piece of farm equipment in that same obnoxious position.

So, no?

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Heaney and Skaggs will outperform Keuchel and possibly Corbin in 2019.  Health permitting.  

I would love this to be true.  Also we would still be a better team if we had one of those two guys pitching for us instead of what might be coming our way.  

[kevinb]

5 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I personally cannot give you an unbiased answer on this one.

I hate Kimbrel.  I find his little hang-my-arm narcissist personal branding strategy to be obnoxious and annoying.  And from a guy in a Red Sox uniform?  Yeah, I can't view him fairly.

Justice would be he loses that arm in a farming accident where he is laying on the ground looking up at his own arm stuck on a piece of farm equipment in that same obnoxious position.

[Dtwncbad]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Heaney and Skaggs will outperform Keuchel and possibly Corbin in 2019.  Health permitting.  

Optimism is taking over for me on Heaney and Skaggs so I am thinking there is another level for both of them.

But I really wanted Corbin.

Throw Corbin in there and I would have felt so, so much better about the rotation.

Of course all you have to do is read about how many sliders Corbin is throwing now and if he was on the Angel roster I would be freaking out that his arm is going to explode.

[totdprods]

Keuchel doesn't do much for me, but as things drag on, his odds of being an Angel start increasing a bit, IMO. Just as we've seen location preference hurt the Angels in any alleged pursuit of Corbin, Eovaldi, and Morton, Keuchel has been tipped as being more of a West Coast, even LA, guy. 

And yes, Eppler hasn't signed a FA with pick compensation, but he also scored a freebie prospect in Maitan (or two, if you count Ohtani) last year - I don't think losing one pick would deter him too much if Keuchel winds up being the only upper-end FA that wind up having a realistic and palatable shot at.

[Dtwncbad]

Forget team prediction, what is everyone's contract prediction for Keuchel?

[Stradling]

5 years $95 million.  In other words too much.  I could see Angels being interested up to about 4 years and $72 million.  

[Angelsjunky]

Keuchel is pretty much the definition of a #3 starter. I know he won the Cy Young Award, but that season was an outlier. He's a good to very good starter.

That said, he has value in consistency. His ERA tends to be volatile, but his FIP has been very consistent over the last three years: 3.87, 3.79, 3.69.

His velocity also seems very stable, and given that he's a good bet to continue putting up #3 type seasons for the next few years. He's basically about as good as Andrew Heaney, just more reliable.

[Angelsjunky]

 

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

5 years $95 million.  In other words too much.  I could see Angels being interested up to about 4 years and $72 million.  

I think this is about right. I have a hard time playing more than $15-18M a year for a #3, but as I said above his projected consistency gives him some value.

 

[Docwaukee]

Can anyone name a FA contract for a SP over the age of 30 for a length of 4 years or more that's worked out if that pitcher isn't a true ace?  

Hint:  it's a trick question.  

[Angelsjunky]

Is the trick that only aces get 4+ year contracts after 30? If so, don’t think that’s true - at least for 4 years. Maybe 5.

[Angel Oracle]

49 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Heaney and Skaggs will outperform Keuchel and possibly Corbin in 2019.  Health permitting.  

And cost a fraction of those two.    How many hits will Keuchel give up in 2019?    He would be helped pitching in a pitching friendly division.   

Never change Nats, never change.

[Angelsjunky]

I’m interested in Kegels.

[wopphil]

Perception is everything with these guys. Keuchel and Charlie Morton have been basically identical pitchers the last two years (granted, Morton is older). But Keuchel has that Cy Young on his mantle, so people perceive him to be better than he really is. And he will probably get overpaid as a result.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Is the trick that only aces get 4+ year contracts after 30? If so, don’t think that’s true - at least for 4 years. Maybe 5.

the answer is still zero but I think I calculated that there were 31 guys who fit the criteria over the last 13 years.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Is the trick that only aces get 4+ year contracts after 30? If so, don’t think that’s true - at least for 4 years. Maybe 5.

deals of 3 years or greater for non ace pitchers over the age of 30 going back to 2006

Jason Schmidt 3/47
Jeff Suppan 4/42
Ted Lilly 4/40
Migeul Batista 3/25 
AJ Burnett 5/82.5
Ryan Dempster 4/52
Kenshin Kawakami 2/23
John Lackey 5/82
Randy Wolf 3/30
CJ Wilson 5/77.5
Mark Buehrle 4/58
Jeremy Guthrie 3/25
Ricky Nolasco 4/49
James Shields 4/75
Ervin Santana 4/55
Brandon McCarthy 4/48
Francisco Liriano 3/39
Johnny Cueto 6/130
Jordan Zimmermann 5/110
Jeff Samardzija 5/90
Wei-Yin Chen 5/80
Ian Kennedy 5/70
Scott Kazmir 3/48
JA Happ 3/36
Rich Hill 3/48
Yu Darvish 6/126
Jake Arrieta 3/75
Alex Cobb 4/57
Lance Lynn 3/30

Others for guys that were under 30 at the time of signing (non ace)

Barry Zito 7/126
Gil Meche 5/55
Jason Marquis 3/21
Kei Igawa 5/20
Carlos Silva 4/48
Yu Darvish 6/60
Wei - Yin Chen 3/11.3
Anibal Sanchez 5/80
Edwin Jackson 4/52
Hyun-Jin Ryu 6/36
Masahiro Tanaka 7/155
Matt Garza 4/50
Ubaldo Jimenez 4/48
Jason Vargas 4/32
Scott Feldman 3/30
Mike Leake 5/80
Ivan Nova 3/26
Tyler Chatwood 3/38
Mike Minor 3/28
Pat Corbin 6/140
Nate Eovaldi 4/67.5

Ace pitchers over that period

CC Sabathia 7/161
Cliff Lee 5/120
Zack Greinke 6/147
Max Scherzer 7/210
Jon Lester 6/155
David Price 7/217
Zack Greinke 6/206

It's clear that free agent starting pitching of 3 years or more is a bad bet.  Anything 4 years or more is a terrible bet. Especially for guys starting the contract at 30 or older.  

[Tank]

On 12/14/2018 at 12:00 PM, Dtwncbad said:

Forget team prediction, what is everyone's contract prediction for Keuchel?

14/792

[Docwaukee]

If we overspend on the 31yo Keuchel it will be worse than getting no one at all.  

[Tank]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

If we overspend on the 31yo Keuchel it will be worse than getting no one at all.  

so 12/586?

[kevinb]

39 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

If we overspend on the 31yo Keuchel it will be worse than getting no one at all.  

If I were the Angels I'd only go 2 years on a deal for him. I wouldn't offer anyone a contract that brings them over the age of 33. Baseball is getting younger. Let the other teams have an older ball club. Let the Angels stay young.