2018 Hot Stove League

[angelsnationtalk]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I just have a hard time believing that the Angels can increase their payroll like that. Nolan Arenado is going to cost upwards of 30 or 40 million a year, and with extensions due to Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, etc... the Angels payroll will already be right where it is right now, even after Pujols, Calhoun and Cozart coming off the books, and that's assuming we have significant contributions from prospects.

Adding Arenado would likely mean a 190 million or 200 million dollar payroll every year. Arte's operating budget the past few years has been right there around 160 million, at least to begin the year. 170 to finish sometimes.

I think it’s possible if Eppler can get creative. At some point I’d imagine Skaggs or Heaney is the odd man out and can be used in a trade. Specially with Canning and Suarez at the door. Bedrosian seems like someone who needs a change in scenery as well. Moving some players around that aren’t key assets could make it happen. Would have the Angels sitting at around $185-$195M total which is about similar to this year. 

[angelsnationtalk]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Not to say I’d do it in order to sign Arenado, but personally I think the Angels should consider trading one of these names before all is said and done to add to the youth movement. And I don’t mean Trout.

It would free up some future payroll commitments and ideally add just enough young talent to the system to either set the big league team’s depth up comfortably, or allow a trade for the next Heaney or Skaggs or Simmons.

I really think it’s between Skaggs and Heaney who could be the ones delt. Specially with Canning and Suarez getting ready to make an impact. Could take an extra $6M off the books if one is moved.

[Docwaukee]

all I want at this point is for Harper and Machado to get signed.  Make the drama go away.  

I know it's mostly not their fault, but it's making me dislike them even more than I did.  

[totdprods]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

depends on if you believe in Fletcher's gold glove level defense at 3b.  He was absolutely amazing on D last year.  

but if I had to choose an avg defender putting up 2.5-3 war because of their offense vs. one doing the same mostly because of their defense, I would more likely choose the more offensive minded player.  

Unless you are Simmons and your defense is HOF level of course.  

It just comes back to depth for me. I love Fletcher, and have no doubt he'd be a very solid starting infielder, and quite possibly better value than Moustakas or Lowrie. 

But Fletcher would also be a massive upgrade over Cowart as our UT IF. I'd rather slot him into that role and take the significant upgrade there, and put a vet IF ahead of him in the starting role in hopes they produce at their peak, which is undoubtedly higher than what Fletcher would provide.

[popo85]

Quote

 

ProSportsDaily‏ @PSDnews 7m7 minutes ago

More

Dodgers appear out on Harper as Nats emerge as favorite

 

 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It just comes back to depth for me. I love Fletcher, and have no doubt he'd be a very solid starting infielder, and quite possibly better value than Moustakas or Lowrie. 

But Fletcher would also be a massive upgrade over Cowart as our UT IF. I'd rather slot him into that role and take the significant upgrade there, and put a vet IF ahead of him in the starting role in hopes they produce at their peak, which is undoubtedly higher than what Fletcher would provide.

the line between depth and finding out what you've got with some of your young players is tricky.  does Moustakas or Lowrie move the needle enough where you delay that process to some degree?  I don't know the answer to that.  

[Stradling]

So with so many free agents still available should we assume that either costs are going to start coming down per year or simply the amount of years is going to start coming down?  So lets assume my favorite free agent is Jed Lowrie.  I am sure he started out looking for a 4 year deal and he’s looking for $15 million a season.  So now since he is still available will the cost come down to less years at the same price or will his overall cost in years and annual value come down?  I would assume for now it is simply years, and at some point it will be $$$ as well.  Just curious what everyone is thinking about this.  

 

The numbers I used for him were mythical numbers and not meant to be real.  

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, popo85 said:

 

I'm sure Boras private meeting with ownership has a lot to do with that.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

the line between depth and finding out what you've got with some of your young players is tricky.  does Moustakas or Lowrie move the needle enough where you delay that process to some degree?  I don't know the answer to that.  

The good news with Lowrie is he plays the exact positions that Fletcher plays, so he can play the one that Fletcher isn’t playing.  I really want Ward to be real, I just don’t have a ton of faith in him.  And as much as I like Fletcher, who’s to say he isn’t Reggie Willits that happens to play the infield, or a Peter Bourjos type.  

[Angel Oracle]

14 hours ago, floplag said:

I think most people would see the merit in Lowrie in many ways, but the issue is positional viability.  Mous gets the nod in that regard as a true 3B versus someone who has played some 3B. 
Either would help, id be happy with either, but i dont think either is wearing halo red anytime soon .  

Sumba’s range at SS means any 3B would not need to have great range, just have a solid arm, make the routine plays, and come in well on slowly hit GBs.

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

the line between depth and finding out what you've got with some of your young players is tricky.  does Moustakas or Lowrie move the needle enough where you delay that process to some degree?  I don't know the answer to that.  

Unfortunately, I expect there to be some injuries or underperformance that opens up playing time for youth by midseason. Additionally, it's why I'd hope Eppler signs vets ahead of the youth that are movable at the deadline, and maybe that means someone cheaper and with less commitment, like Dozier or Forsythe, instead of Moustakas or Lowrie. Waiting a couple months also helps the Angels save service time - though I've never believed that the Angels worry much about that. 

But I also have a much longer term vision than the board does in general, so it's easy for me to say that I don't mind the Angels working in the youth more slowly over 2019 and 2020. I get that it makes just as much sense to keep playing time open in 2019 for as many prospects as possible in hopes that it all coalesces come 2020.

And it means I want to see Eppler sign stopgap vets this offseason and next in hopes he continues flipping them for guys like Buttrey, Jerez, and Sandoval, even if it means pausing the youth for the first half. I'm fine with patience, and waiting for 2020/2021 for all this to start coming together. It's why I'd also have an open mind on Skaggs, Simmons, and Heaney trades for top prospects in the next two years.

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

So with so many free agents still available should we assume that either costs are going to start coming down per year or simply the amount of years is going to start coming down?  So lets assume my favorite free agent is Jed Lowrie.  I am sure he started out looking for a 4 year deal and he’s looking for $15 million a season.  So now since he is still available will the cost come down to less years at the same price or will his overall cost in years and annual value come down?  I would assume for now it is simply years, and at some point it will be $$$ as well.  Just curious what everyone is thinking about this.  

 

The numbers I used for him were mythical numbers and not meant to be real.  

Does Lowrie encounter what Moose did a year ago, and thus end up signing a one year slightly inflated contract?

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Stradling said:

So with so many free agents still available should we assume that either costs are going to start coming down per year or simply the amount of years is going to start coming down?  So lets assume my favorite free agent is Jed Lowrie.  I am sure he started out looking for a 4 year deal and he’s looking for $15 million a season.  So now since he is still available will the cost come down to less years at the same price or will his overall cost in years and annual value come down?  I would assume for now it is simply years, and at some point it will be $$$ as well.  Just curious what everyone is thinking about this.  

 

The numbers I used for him were mythical numbers and not meant to be real.  

I seriously doubt he's looking for 4 years at his age.  

I agree that the AAV is set.  For him it's all about that 3rd year.  He'll get 2/28 from the A's.  Maybe with an option.  If a team is going to take him from the A's, they'll have to give that 3rd year.  

I think that's pretty much where everyone is at.  The AAV is about right but it's that extra year.  Except maybe Keuchel and Kimbrel.  Their market could be contingent on who nabs Harper or Machado.  

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Does Lowrie encounter what Moose did a year ago, and thus end up signing a one year slightly inflated contract?

i bet Lowrie has two on the table.  The Moose thing was different because he wanted a pillow contract where he could go perform and get a better contract the following year.  This is Lowrie's last contract.  He's gonna try and milk every drop as he should.  

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The good news with Lowrie is he plays the exact positions that Fletcher plays, so he can play the one that Fletcher isn’t playing.  I really want Ward to be real, I just don’t have a ton of faith in him.  And as much as I like Fletcher, who’s to say he isn’t Reggie Willits that happens to play the infield, or a Peter Bourjos type.  

that's totally the nit with a guy like Ward and probably Fletcher too (although I think he'll become a util guy).  Moustakas and Lowrie are so much safer but is that a good thing for the long term health of this team?  Again, tough call and I have no idea.  

[Stradling]

I would be fine with Ward and Fletcher learning to be a capable outfielders as well.  Not to be starters but to give all the flexibility needed these days with roster flex being at a premium.  Imagine if Fletcher was a passable right fielder and could make starts out there with a left on the mound.  

[Angel Oracle]

Taking Angel Stadium into account...

Lowrie >>> Moose

Lowrie gets on base and still has plenty of XBH’s pop in his bat.   Halos need an OBP infusion in the lineup.

[Stradling]

Oh and as it relates to the Dodgers possibly being out on Harper, that would be hilarious, since it sure seems like they shed payroll in order to sign him.  If they don’t sign him you can kind of expect them to go all in on free agency next year and go after a guy like Arrenado and move Turner back to 2nd or over to 1st.  

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Taking Angel Stadium into account...

Lowrie >>> Moose

Lowrie gets on base and still has plenty of XBH’s pop in his bat.   Halos need an OBP infusion in the lineup.

He's also going to be 35, and Moose will be 30.

Like Lowrie, Zobrist posted a couple seasons of 120 OPS+ around the same age, then fell off a cliff to a 79 OPS+ in 2017. 
Zobrist rebounded in '18, yes, but still...Lowrie is at an age where it can come apart pretty quickly.

Assuming both get similar money and years, I still think I would lean Moose, simply because I see him as 'blocking' Ward and Thaiss, where Lowrie 'blocks' Rengifo, Fletcher, and Jones, all of whom I could see maturing into at least Lowrie's BA/OBP skill in '19-'20. It's harder seeing Ward or Thaiss replicating Moose's SLG-driven .775-.800 OPS in '19 or '20.

Basically, I feel the Angels have a better shot at producing their own Lowrie than I do their own Moose.

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Taking Angel Stadium into account...

Lowrie >>> Moose

Lowrie gets on base and still has plenty of XBH’s pop in his bat.   Halos need an OBP infusion in the lineup.

don't forget about the shorter wall now.  

[Angel Oracle]

Ideally, the future (2020) would have Ward at 3B and playing some 1B when facing a LHP, Rengifo at 2B, Thaiss at 1B, and Fletcher being a super utility guy.

Then they could focus a year from now on someone like Gerrit Cole in FA.

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I would be fine with Ward and Fletcher learning to be a capable outfielders as well.  Not to be starters but to give all the flexibility needed these days with roster flex being at a premium.  Imagine if Fletcher was a passable right fielder and could make starts out there with a left on the mound.  

I'd like to see Fletch get some time in CF in AAA so he could back up both the OF and IF.  

As far as Ward, it may help if he could also be the third C.  

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'd like to see Fletch get some time in CF in AAA so he could back up both the OF and IF.  

As far as Ward, it may help if he could also be the third C.  

I have just assumed he is the emergency catcher now.  I am thinking you are looking at it more as a “he will definitely see innings behind the plate” type of thing.  Yes that would be great.  I have heard mixed things about his catching skills.  I have heard he was a good catch and throw guy.  I have heard he was just awful with passed balls.  I have also heard and this is the one I believe, that he just couldn’t connect with the pitchers and didn’t have strong relationship skills with them.  Also if you read into Eppler’s comments it sounded like he was telling Ward he only had to focus on himself now.  Not saying it was a slap in the face saying that, but if one of the biggest parts of being a catcher is helping someone get through tough times and he was incapable of doing that, it is what it is.  I don’t think that prevents him from being a 3rd catcher.  

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I have just assumed he is the emergency catcher now.  I am thinking you are looking at it more as a “he will definitely see innings behind the plate” type of thing.  Yes that would be great.  I have heard mixed things about his catching skills.  I have heard he was a good catch and throw guy.  I have heard he was just awful with passed balls.  I have also heard and this is the one I believe, that he just couldn’t connect with the pitchers and didn’t have strong relationship skills with them.  Also if you read into Eppler’s comments it sounded like he was telling Ward he only had to focus on himself now.  Not saying it was a slap in the face saying that, but if one of the biggest parts of being a catcher is helping someone get through tough times and he was incapable of doing that, it is what it is.  I don’t think that prevents him from being a 3rd catcher.  

Yeah, I've already assumed he's the 3rd string emergency catcher. He isn't that far removed, and the 3rd stringer is usually a random infielder who has never played catcher before, so he more than meets the task. I'd like to see him get some reps at another position or two just to give him some more late-inning versatility. Made sense to not put that on him last year as he switched to 3rd, but he could get a few reps this season in SLC. 

[floplag]

12 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I’d leave Cozart to possibly fill 3B and platoon with Ward when he’s up and let Fletcher take 2B to start and then compete with Rengifo when he’s up. 

Is wait till the deadline to try and deal Cozart to unload some salary and then take a run at Arenado next offseason. 

While i agree this is a good idea, it leaves us in a tight spot for 19.  If i believed they would actually do as you suggest i would support it more, but all the teams that are in on Manny now would be in on Arrenado and i dont see them going into a spending war