The Official 2018 Amateur Draft Thread

[Stradling]

So the kid from Ranch Santa Margarita that’s committed to USC.  He seemed like a signability issue.  Would he have projected to be in the top 3 rounds without the signability issues?   

[totdprods]

I imagine in the Eppler/Swanson years, we'll continue to see picks #1-5 be a blend of safe signability and high upside/boom or bust picks - be it HS athletes or a college player fallen a bit due to injury/underperformance who still has a high ceiling - generally, guys who won't be a huge signing or overslot risk. Then they'll play it safe and stock up on very cheap college seniors picks #6-10 - usually pitchers of whom they'll just draft by volume and hope someone sticks, sort of like how we're seeing with Procopio emerging now, even if it means we watch guys like Brady, Riley, and Hanewich flame out. Then when picks #11-15 come up, they can go after the handful of guys they've really watched and liked and feel comfortable throwing sizable signing bonuses at.

[Docwaukee]

If you look at rounds 6-10 on a historical basis, how many players put up solid major league careers from that pool?  

I went back and looked at 15 years worth of drafts from the late 90's through 2010 and about 3 players per draft end up with 10 or more WAR for their career.  

That's 3 out of 150 players or 2%.  So the odds of finding an impactful player in those rounds is almost negligible.  

So.....

Everyone drafts college seniors and they all get senior money to sign ie anywhere from a bus ticket to about 50k.  

Every pick from 11-40 can get up to 125k without it affecting the pool.  

Slot value for picks 6-10 is about 920k plus the 5% you can go over gives you about 1mil.  All 5 of those picks for the halos were seniors.  If they avg about 20k each, that's 900k left.  

If you draft those guys later and they sign for the same amount, it saves you nothing from your pool.  

As an exercise, take picks 11-15.  3 HS and 2 college jrs.  They're upside picks who would are likely going to have signability issues.  Let's say, though, you drafted them all at 6-10 instead of 11-15 and they all signed for slot.  Then you drafted those college seniors at 11-15 and signed them for 20k each.  How much does that chew up from the pool in both scenarios? 

The way the halos did it:

+900k for senior signs in rounds 6-10 (1m in pool money - 100k to sign them)
Again, assume that 11-15 each sign for 6-10 slot money.  So that's around 1m.  They can each get 125k without it affecting the pool so that's 625k - 1m = 375k subtracted from the pool.  So you still have 525k in surplus pool left

If you transposed 6-10 with 11-15

6-10 now takes the entire pool value of those picks
11-15 sign for 20k each but you don't get that surplus back.  
so the net surplus back to the pool is ZERO.  

What if that extra 525k in pool money affords you the ability to go over slot on 2 of the high upside guys you drafted later like Isaiah Campbell from ARK (ranked 109 but picked 721) or Chandler Champlain (ranked 120 but picked 1141).  

The slot value for our 4th round pick (121) is 455k.  Both of those guys are equivalent to 4th round picks that would cost about 900k.  They can get 125k each plus the extra pool money is now 775k.  Shave a little more off from our first 5 picks to sign these guys and we've now got 3 fourth round picks from this draft.    

 

[Dave Saltzer]

41 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

If you look at rounds 6-10 on a historical basis, how many players put up solid major league careers from that pool?  

I went back and looked at 15 years worth of drafts from the late 90's through 2010 and about 3 players per draft end up with 10 or more WAR for their career.  

That's 3 out of 150 players or 2%.  So the odds of finding an impactful player in those rounds is almost negligible.  

So.....

Everyone drafts college seniors and they all get senior money to sign ie anywhere from a bus ticket to about 50k.  

Every pick from 11-40 can get up to 125k without it affecting the pool.  

Slot value for picks 6-10 is about 920k plus the 5% you can go over gives you about 1mil.  All 5 of those picks for the halos were seniors.  If they avg about 20k each, that's 900k left.  

If you draft those guys later and they sign for the same amount, it saves you nothing from your pool.  

As an exercise, take picks 11-15.  3 HS and 2 college jrs.  They're upside picks who would are likely going to have signability issues.  Let's say, though, you drafted them all at 6-10 instead of 11-15 and they all signed for slot.  Then you drafted those college seniors at 11-15 and signed them for 20k each.  How much does that chew up from the pool in both scenarios? 

The way the halos did it:

+900k for senior signs in rounds 6-10 (1m in pool money - 100k to sign them)
Again, assume that 11-15 each sign for 6-10 slot money.  So that's around 1m.  They can each get 125k without it affecting the pool so that's 625k - 1m = 375k subtracted from the pool.  So you still have 525k in surplus pool left

If you transposed 6-10 with 11-15

6-10 now takes the entire pool value of those picks
11-15 sign for 20k each but you don't get that surplus back.  
so the net surplus back to the pool is ZERO.  

What if that extra 525k in pool money affords you the ability to go over slot on 2 of the high upside guys you drafted later like Isaiah Campbell from ARK (ranked 109 but picked 721) or Chandler Champlain (ranked 120 but picked 1141).  

The slot value for our 4th round pick (121) is 455k.  Both of those guys are equivalent to 4th round picks that would cost about 900k.  They can get 125k each plus the extra pool money is now 775k.  Shave a little more off from our first 5 picks to sign these guys and we've now got 3 fourth round picks from this draft.    

 

Good analysis and writeup Doc. And, I agree that is a very efficient way to do it, much better than Dipoto's high ceiling, low floor approach. There's always a good chance that when you offer real money to high upside prospects drafted later that they will take it, especially now that you can include a college scholarship. If you have $450k and a college scholarship paid for at age 18, you are very set for life. I'd tell my sons to take the money and run. What's the worst that can happen, you enter college a little older, a little wiser, and knowing that you gave pro-ball your best shot? Big deal. No college debt, the downpayment for a house (or the full price of a house outright) by the time you graduate. Sign me up please.

[John Smith]

Jonathan Mayo‏Verified account @JonathanMayo

 

 

2nd rder Jeremiah Jackson's bonus w/@Angels will be full pick value ($1,196,500). Alabama HS MIF with excellent hitting skills. Chance to play SS, maybe ends at 2B.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, John Smith said:

 Jonathan Mayo‏Verified account @JonathanMayo

2nd rder Jeremiah Jackson's bonus w/@Angels will be full pick value ($1,196,500). Alabama HS MIF with excellent hitting skills. Chance to play SS, maybe ends at 2B.

Great value!

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, John Smith said:

Jonathan Mayo‏Verified account @JonathanMayo

 

 

2nd rder Jeremiah Jackson's bonus w/@Angels will be full pick value ($1,196,500). Alabama HS MIF with excellent hitting skills. Chance to play SS, maybe ends at 2B.

I was most concerned about this pick being over slot of all our picks.  

[Lou]

lol @ $450k and a college scholarship setting you up for life at the age of 18 

[Lou]

doc kicks ass 

 

[Angelsfan1984]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

lol @ $450k and a college scholarship setting you up for life at the age of 18 

Definitely not set for life financially but that's a massive swing of money and education that most people could never dream of. That's probably about a 9-10 year head start for most 18 year olds. 50k a year salary and 50k in college expenses. Plus on top of that getting to chase a dream...i'd take that in a heartbeat.

[eaterfan]

25 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

Good analysis and writeup Doc. And, I agree that is a very efficient way to do it, much better than Dipoto's high ceiling, low floor approach. There's always a good chance that when you offer real money to high upside prospects drafted later that they will take it, especially now that you can include a college scholarship. If you have $450k and a college scholarship paid for at age 18, you are very set for life. I'd tell my sons to take the money and run. What's the worst that can happen, you enter college a little older, a little wiser, and knowing that you gave pro-ball your best shot? Big deal. No college debt, the downpayment for a house (or the full price of a house outright) by the time you graduate. Sign me up please.

Plus, if you're a pitcher you get the added benefit of playing for an organization that cares about keeping you healthy in the long term. Many college coaches want to win at all costs. They'll throw pitchers too long and without adequate rest. 

[GrittyVeterans]

17 minutes ago, Lou said:

lol @ $450k and a college scholarship setting you up for life at the age of 18 

Well invested in the stock market over 40 years you are talking about probably 3 million dollars by the time you’re 60

obviously not all of that is going to be saved though lol.. so yeah you’re right

[John Smith]

•  

  Jim Callis‏Verified account @jimcallisMLB

   

 

5th-rder William English, @Angels agree on $700k (pick 151 = $340,300). Michigan prep product, announced as two-way player during @MLBDraft, low-90s fastball & promising changeup as RHP, plus runner & good swing as OF. Tennessee recruit.

[Inside Pitch]

Seems they really wanted English.     Happy for this kid -- 700K goes a long ways when you come from where he does.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Angel Oracle]

17 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Plus, if you're a pitcher you get the added benefit of playing for an organization that cares about keeping you healthy in the long term. Many college coaches want to win at all costs. They'll throw pitchers too long and without adequate rest. 

Mark Marquess has his own wing for this.

[m0nkey]

26 minutes ago, Lou said:

lol @ $450k and a college scholarship setting you up for life at the age of 18 

AJ quote 

-@calscuf

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, John Smith said:

•  

  Jim Callis‏Verified account @jimcallisMLB

   

 

5th-rder William English, @Angels agree on $700k (pick 151 = $340,300). Michigan prep product, announced as two-way player during @MLBDraft, low-90s fastball & promising changeup as RHP, plus runner & good swing as OF. Tennessee recruit.

nice.  that pretty much eats up the 5% overage we can do without a penalty.  

[Angel Oracle]

Have all top 5 rounds picks signed with the Halos now?

[Inside Pitch]

So ..;.. You have to scroll a ways down to where the header is - THE SURPRISE -- but it's a pretty great read on this kid.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/high-school/2018/05/04/bryce-bush-mississippi-state-john-malcolm-vanderbilt-william-english-tennessee/574544002/

“It depends on the teams and what they’re talking about in negotiations,” English said. “Some teams want me to pitch, for sure, and some want me to hit and some want me to do both.”

One of the teams talking about him doing both is the Los Angeles Angels, who now feature Japanese rookie sensation Shohei Ohtani, who pitches and has hit four home runs.

“I swear,” English said, “that’s going to be me some day.”

Edited June 11, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[m0nkey]

I'm so glad we have smart guys like Doc and IP here to break down the minor leagues and draft for the dumb folk like me.

[Lou]

18 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Definitely not set for life financially but that's a massive swing of money and education that most people could never dream of. That's probably about a 9-10 year head start for most 18 year olds. 50k a year salary and 50k in college expenses. Plus on top of that getting to chase a dream...i'd take that in a heartbeat.

not saying it wouldn't be a good position to be in, but to state that it would set him up for life is absolutely ridiculous. Subtract taxes and expenditures over the years he's playing in the minor, what is he left with? Also, how many players have actually utilized the college tuition option? 

set for life at the age of 18? no way in hell. not even close. 

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

So ..;.. You have to scroll a ways down to where the header is - THE SURPRISE -- but it's a pretty great read on this kid.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/high-school/2018/05/04/bryce-bush-mississippi-state-john-malcolm-vanderbilt-william-english-tennessee/574544002/

cool article.  Mentions the Angels specifically.  Funny thing is?  It was posted May 4th.  

[Angelsfan1984]

5 minutes ago, Lou said:

not saying it wouldn't be a good position to be in, but to state that it would set him up for life is absolutely ridiculous. Subtract taxes and expenditures over the years he's playing in the minor, what is he left with? Also, how many players have actually utilized the college tuition option? 

set for life at the age of 18? no way in hell. not even close. 

Maybe he was assuming the education. Most people correlate a college degree with having the tools to succeed for a lifetime. Compound that with being debt free behind it. I have no idea, i'm just throwing out ideas. 450k in California is starting to feel borderline poor lol.

[Lou]

11 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

I'm so glad we have smart guys like Doc and IP here to break down the minor leagues and draft for the dumb folk like me.

couldn't agree with you more 

[Dave Saltzer]

11 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Definitely not set for life financially but that's a massive swing of money and education that most people could never dream of. That's probably about a 9-10 year head start for most 18 year olds. 50k a year salary and 50k in college expenses. Plus on top of that getting to chase a dream...i'd take that in a heartbeat.

Yeah, funny thing about getting lots of money when you're young and making good decisions with it. Compound interest works wonders in your favor. 

Let's say you put $10k of that bonus in tax free or tax deferred retirement plans. And, let's say, over the rest of your life, you contribute $500/month into your IRAs. And you just put it in a mutual fund that returns 7.5% on average, the historical stock market return. At age 65, that comes to 2,614,265.12 at age 65. Now, let's assume after taxes, etc., and maybe buying yourself a reasonable car, you have $250k leftover (remember, not all states are as taxing as CA). And, let's assume you don't add a dime to that sum and just leave it there until age 30. That turns into $595,444.90 at age 30. 

Age 30 is a good number because hat gives you time to play baseball and chase your dreams until age 25, call it quits, go to college, and earn a degree. Let's say you choose law enforcement. You graduate, go through the academy, and become a patrol officer at age 30. Presently, the median salary for a patrol officer is $53,208. Let's assume that salary grows at a rate of about 2%. That comes to $67,480.61 for a starting salary at age 30. 

Now let's assume after getting your job, you get married and want to buy a house. Presently, the median price of a home in the USA is $188,900. Let's assume a 4% growth rate in that price. By age 30, that cost will be $302,434.99. Of course, from your signing bonus, you have nearly TWICE that much to pay cash for your house, leaving you with no mortgage. And of course you have no college debt. And, since you have a college degree, you are more likely to get promoted. The two biggest bills that most college graduates have to pay, you never will pay (mortgage and education costs). You can live on 100% of your income knowing full well that you never have to contribute anything more than $500/month to your retirement, and at age 65 you will have over $2.5 million in addition to your entire pension as a police officer. 

Yeah, I guess some people might not call that set for life, but for most sane people, that is far better off than they would ever be without that money at a young age. That would put your net worth at age 65 well into the top 10% of the US, which of course, is pretty much set for life, especially considering how your life would turn out if you had to pay for everything on your own trying to achieve the same scenario.