The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[kino]

Are there any updates on Nate Smith? It’s approaching one year since he underwent surgery. Julio Urias underwent the same surgery and it took a year and change until he was able to make a rehab appearance and even then Urias has looked like a shell of his former self which from some cursory research appears to be the norm for this kind of surgery.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Specifically targeting all black guys as comps is kinda racist and but even more mentally lazy than anything else.

You are not the only one, Trout gets likened to Mickey Mantle but not Willie Mays. 

I'm not specifically targeting black players, but they just make the most sense. Without it sounding too racist, I think more often than not, the best power-speed players of all time are largely black. Let's check out the 300 HR/300 SB list....

https://stlouis.sbnation.com/st-louis-cardinals/2012/6/16/3091516/carlos-beltran-300-stolen-bases-record

How many white guys do you see there? One. Steve Finley, which is both hilarious and amazing. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Specifically targeting all black guys as comps is kinda racist and but even more mentally lazy than anything else.

You are not the only one, Trout gets likened to Mickey Mantle but not Willie Mays. 

I don't think he's specifically targeting them, its just those are the guys that come most readily to mind, and he isn't casting them aside due to race/ethnicity.

The reason Trout gets likened to Mantle more than Mays is that he is a lot more similar to Mantle than Mays. Compare their careers, through age 26:

TROUT: 1065 games, .307/.416/.573, 240 HR, 14.8 BB%, 21.4 K%, 172 wRC+, 64.7 fWAR

MANTLE: 1102 games, .314/.430/.577, 249 HR, 16.8 BB%, 16.2 K%, 174 wRC+, 61.3 fWAR

MAYS: 762 games, .311/.387/.593, 187 HR, 11.0 BB%, 9.7 K%, 155 wRC+, 39.5 fWAR

Trout is pretty similar to Mays, but far more similar to Mantle. Notice, in particular, the BB and K%s, and adjust for era. Trout and Mantle are almost the exact same player.

[Chuck]

I think Jo Adell has more power and speed than Torii Hunter and I've always likened him to a Preston Wilson type. I'll take somewhere between his best early Florida Marlins years and his one Colorado Rockies MVP type season. 

Oh and yes, he bats righthanded and is black. Sorry, @Taylor

 

[Taylor]

Lol, I just find it funny that his comps are always other black dudes. And Regnifo gets comped to other Latino players.

I'm a white guy, so I'm not offended. I just find it slightly amusing.

[Chuck]

Actually looking at Rengifo's minor league #'s and comparing them to Jean Segura, they're pretty similar. Though Rengifo is a switch-hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate. 

I really hope we give this kid a chance out of ST. I think he could be a great leadoff option for us. 

[Second Base]

Fun little tidbit, Jerry Dipoto added to his ever growing list of players he's both traded AND traded for. Next victim, Ricardo Sanchez. Once the Angels top international pitching prospect, Dipoto traded him for Kyle Kubitza, which didn't work out at all. Sanchez has a nice three pitch mix, but he's still pretty raw. Today he reacquired Sanchez via a trade with the Braves. 

It is expected that Dipoto will trade and trade for Sanchez at least three more times before his 24th birthday. 

[Chuck]

 

 

[GrittyVeterans]

On 11/27/2018 at 7:08 PM, totdprods said:

Ironically, BBREF has Torii Hunter’s similar batter score closest to...Chili Davis, Dave Parker, Carlos Lee, Dwight Evans, and Joe Carter, with Vernon Wells, Jermaine Dye, and Dave Parker showing up on similarity by age.

Chone Figgins? Tony Womack, Michael Bourn, Bip Roberts, Denard Span, and a bunch of ol’ white pre-Jackie dudes. 

I kinda get that comps are often racially similar, but I don’t think it has to do with skin color or physiology, but rather their background in the game. More often than not, the African-American players come from a multi-sport background and are fantastic athletes, coming from areas where baseball is secondary to basketball and football. White players are either huge country-strong dudes who get by throwing hard or hitting hard and not much else, or on the other side, have benefited from strong coaching and competitive backgrounds since youth and are more well-rounded and coached as a result to help overcome their athletic shortcomings. Japanese baseball places far more emphasis on contact and discipline and situational offense, so it’s no surprise most Japanese hitters that have success in the bigs bring that skill set. Most Latin players are signed at a very young age on the strength of one raw, elite, standout skill that they’ve developed at that point - raw power, electric movement or velocity, elite glove, fantastic speed - whatever they were good enough at to allow them to play with the older boys competitively. 

Case in point, it actually is a little tricky coming up with a white/Latin/Asia equivalent to Torii Hunter’s career average of .280/.330/.460/.790 110 OPS+ with 30 doubles, 25 HR, 13 SB and great defense. I honestly can’t come up with someone who had was comparable across the board to Torii that isn’t black. They all had at least one or two aspects of their game that was much stronger or much less than Torii.

I honestly can't name a single non-Latin switch-hitter in baseball right now either, off the top of my head.

Zobrist, Dexter Fowler

 

But yeah, it's amazing how much more common it is for Latin players

[Stradling]

According to BaseballReference.com Kenley Jansen is a switch hitter.   

[Angelsjunky]

Here's what John Sickels had to say about Rengifo back in August. The short version is that he started the year at C+ and by the time Sickels wrote that, he was a B and he was considering grading him a B+ in his offseason list. My guess is he is more conservative and goes for the B, which is how I'd grade him. I love Rengifo, but I'm also staying on the conservative side an imagining a slightly lesser version of Figgins, but better than Izturis. Talk of Jose Ramirez - one of three or four best players in the game - is a bit crazy.

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here's what John Sickels had to say about Rengifo back in August. The short version is that he started the year at C+ and by the time Sickels wrote that, he was a B and he was considering grading him a B+ in his offseason list. My guess is he is more conservative and goes for the B, which is how I'd grade him. I love Rengifo, but I'm also staying on the conservative side an imagining a slightly lesser version of Figgins, but better than Izturis. Talk of Jose Ramirez - one of three or four best players in the game - is a bit crazy.

I don't think everyone believes Rengifo will be the next Jose Ramirez or even Jean Segura/Chone Figgins. 

The point here that is being made is there's clearly upside and their minor league numbers are pretty damn close. Rengifo is just 21 too, so he has room to improve. 

[Docwaukee]

46 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here's what John Sickels had to say about Rengifo back in August. The short version is that he started the year at C+ and by the time Sickels wrote that, he was a B and he was considering grading him a B+ in his offseason list. My guess is he is more conservative and goes for the B, which is how I'd grade him. I love Rengifo, but I'm also staying on the conservative side an imagining a slightly lesser version of Figgins, but better than Izturis. Talk of Jose Ramirez - one of three or four best players in the game - is a bit crazy.

there aren't many guys out there who are going to profile as Jose in the minors and make such a drastic jump.  Ramirez kills pitches in on his hands whereas that video of Rengifo shows the difference in that he was getting tied up on the inner half and off the plate in.  So my guess is that he's gonna rely on speed and obp to be valuable.  

I think Rengifo will be a more dynamic player than Maicer.  

[Chuck]

11 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

there aren't many guys out there who are going to profile as Jose in the minors and make such a drastic jump.  Ramirez kills pitches in on his hands whereas that video of Rengifo shows the difference in that he was getting tied up on the inner half and off the plate in.  So my guess is that he's gonna rely on speed and obp to be valuable.  

I think Rengifo will be a more dynamic player than Maicer.  

We also don't know what Jose Ramirez did with pitches on the inner half when he was in A-AA-AAA either. Plus it was just one video of Rengifo. 

[ettin]

We have gone from "What can short players do?" to "Listing some excellent short players" to "Luis Rengifo is NOT = Ramirez, Altuve, et al, yadayadayadayada".

Rengifo is quite young at age 21 and could have a lot of possible development paths in front of him. I do not think he is the next Jose Ramirez but if he turns out to be then hot damn we finally got some good farm system/trade luck to fall our way! I think his current path (which could change up or down) sets him as being a low to average end regular player in the Majors. We will not know for a while still so let us just enjoy the fact that the kid is performing well right now and could make an impact for our team in the near-future.

[Chuck]

10 minutes ago, ettin said:

We have gone from "What can short players do?" to "Listing some excellent short players" to "Luis Rengifo is NOT = Ramirez, Altuve, et al, yadayadayadayada".

Rengifo is quite young at age 21 and could have a lot of possible development paths in front of him. I do not think he is the next Jose Ramirez but if he turns out to be then hot damn we finally got some good farm system/trade luck to fall our way! I think his current path (which could change up or down) sets him as being a low to average end regular player in the Majors. We will not know for a while still so let us just enjoy the fact that the kid is performing well right now and could make an impact for our team in the near-future.

Remember when Baseball America told us to be excited that we drafted the next Aaron Rowand?

Good times! 

[Chuck]

17 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

 

There's also this...

[Docwaukee]

39 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

We also don't know what Jose Ramirez did with pitches on the inner half when he was in A-AA-AAA either. Plus it was just one video of Rengifo. 

yep.  one thing we do know is that Jose hit 9 total hrs over two seasons in AA/AAA at age 20/21.  

adjustments and tweaks happen all the time.  Would Rengifo be the first player to become an all-star after a breakout season preceded by a rather pedestrian minor league career?  Certainly not.  But if we're handicapping him, I'm going with him being an avg to slightly above avg everyday player at the peak of his career.  My second best guess is that of a guy who floats between a util player and being a starter for a couple of season with avg to slightly below production.  The extremes are a sub par util guy that's on the AAA shuttle constantly on the low end, and a dynamic leadoff guy with a few AS appearances on the high end.  

[Chuck]

17 minutes ago, RBM said:

I looked at a 20/21 year old Ramirez versus a 20/21 year old Rengifo and I think it’s a good comparison. They are both switch hitting infielders with speed and a high OPS. Rengifo actually hit more HR’s than Ramirez during those two seasons, 19 versus 10, but Ramirez played a full season of AAA at 21. I don’t think Rengifo will be a 29 or 39 HR guy like Ramirez is now but we just don’t know. Time will tell but I think Rengifo could be special. And remember, Ramirez wasn’t the Ramirez we now know when he was 21 so comparing a 25 year old Ramirez to a 21 year old Rengifo seems a bit off. Not crazy, just off the mark. 

Yep. Jose Ramirez hit just 19 HR over his first three major league seasons as well. He didn't see a spike in his power totals until his 4th season in which he clubbed 29. He hit just 11 the season before. 

[Second Base]

I think part of the reason why Luis Rengifo kept getting traded was because enough scouts and front offices had watched him play, and knew he had a solid base.  His floor was going to be that of a utility infielder.  He can pick it at three positions and he could make contract and run the bases.  Not bad plate discipline either.  

That and most teams have come to expect "breakout" seasons from players at a certain stage of their career.  It typically happens around 21 or 22, one more time around 24, and once more around 27.  Teams frequently have to decide if holding on to a certain player until these "breakout" stages occur is worth it. 

The Angels got lucky on this one.  Rengifo's breakout wasn't small, it was a pretty major one.  And chances are, he isn't done.  He's made himself into a legitimate utility infielder or potential starter at age 21/22. Chances are, he'll get a taste of the league this year, and then after next year, he'll reach another level in which he's legitimately a starting infielder.  Then after a couple years of that he'll reach that comfort level where the game slows down and Rengifo becomes a good starting infielder. 

It's usually a process.  But then some guys just change all at once and transform from minor leaguer into very good major leaguer, like Jose Ramirez.  I wouldn't ever predict that, but I think a steady progression of improvement for Rengifo could result in him being a good starter someday.  Hopefully that happens with us, but sometimes because of depth issues, young guys end up going elsewhere to make something of themselves.  

I think unless one of them switches positions, like Rengifo to 3B, it might be hard to fit both Jahmai Jones and Luis Rengifo into the Angels future plans.  But this putting the cart in front of the horse.  We need to see more before that happens. 

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

I don't thin everyone thinks Rengifo will be the next Jose Ramirez or even Jean Segura/Chone Figgins. 

The point here that is being made is there's clearly upside and their minor league numbers are pretty damn close. Rengifo is just 21 too, so he has room to improve. 

I know - only one person (the new guy) made that comp. But yeah, there's upside and I like Rengifo a lot (I went back and forth on whether to rank him or Jahmai higher).

I agree with Doc that he'll be more dynamic than Maicer, but probably a bit less so than Figgins - he doesn't have that kind of speed. I see his upside as something like .290/.370/.420, with 40ish sb and 10 HR, which isn't Jose Ramirez but is pretty damn good and a borderline star.

[Second Base]

On 11/25/2018 at 6:13 PM, Second Base said:

So if Luis Rengifo hits the lottery, yeah, I'd say he's Jose Reyes, the sort that turns in regular 4-6 win seasons. If he reaches his good outcome, which I'd say is Chone Figgins, he'll be an everyday player that accumulates 2-4 wins per season. And the realistic outcome for Rengifo would probably be a 1-3 win player, like Izturis. The unfavorable outcome here would be that he's a career backup and AAA depth. Replacement level. And bust would be that last season was a fluke and he's never that good again. 

And even on this spectrum, some players are more likely to reach their ceilings than others. I'd consider it a small disappointment if Rengifo never became more than Izturis. I know that's a realistic outcome, but I think his likelihood of reaching a better outcome than that is high. 

 

[Chuck]

Speaking of Jon Sickels, it looks like he's homeless. SBN/Vox Media has discontinued Minor League Ball from their blog network. 

 

 

[totdprods]

On 11/27/2018 at 10:53 PM, kino said:

Are there any updates on Nate Smith? It’s approaching one year since he underwent surgery. Julio Urias underwent the same surgery and it took a year and change until he was able to make a rehab appearance and even then Urias has looked like a shell of his former self which from some cursory research appears to be the norm for this kind of surgery.

@Jeff Fletcher ?

[Second Base]

27 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Speaking of Jon Sickels, it looks like he's homeless. SBN/Vox Media has discontinued Minor League Ball from their blog network. 

 

 

It seemed like a very popular site.  Hey Chuck, see if he wants a job!