The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Second Base]

Also, I thought I was totally amazing the other day when I managed to get on top of 36 without much practice. Then I watch these and realize, it doesn't matter how much I train, I'm not box jumping 5 feet. 

[tdawg87]

55 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Also, I thought I was totally amazing the other day when I managed to get on top of 36 without much practice.

Gross

[Broad Street]

Rengifo is pretty small, 5'10" 165 lbs...

 

Is he going to have enough power to stick around or is he more of a Billy Hamilton type?

[Blarg]

Players can be indispensable without hitting home runs. Think Chone Figgins when trying to grasp what Rengifo can bring to the team. 

[tdawg87]

11 hours ago, Kody Mac said:

Rengifo is pretty small, 5'10" 165 lbs...

 

Is he going to have enough power to stick around or is he more of a Billy Hamilton type?

Mookie Betts.

[ettin]

14 hours ago, Kody Mac said:

Rengifo is pretty small, 5'10" 165 lbs...

 

Is he going to have enough power to stick around or is he more of a Billy Hamilton type?

 

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Mookie Betts.

Jose Ramirez.

[ettin]

14 hours ago, Kody Mac said:

Rengifo is pretty small, 5'10" 165 lbs...

 

Is he going to have enough power to stick around or is he more of a Billy Hamilton type?

 

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Mookie Betts.

 

1 minute ago, ettin said:

 

Jose Ramirez.

Jose Altuve.

[tdawg87]

Reggie WilliOh wait

[Broad Street]

I went with Billy Hamilton because I just don't see him being as good as Betts, Ramirez, or even Dee Gordon.

[Second Base]

I could see Luis Rengifo settling in as a Maicer Izturis type, if he doesn't make good on the potential of being a Figgins type of player. Decent bat and on base ability, some speed, some defense. Better than a back up but not good enough to be a specific starter for the most part. 

[wopphil]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I could see Luis Rengifo settling in as a Maicer Izturis type, if he doesn't make good on the potential of being a Figgins type of player. Decent bat and on base ability, some speed, some defense. Better than a back up but not good enough to be a specific starter for the most part. 

Why is this the expectation for him? He is 21 and just completed an outstanding season. Why can't he be another Jose Reyes (sans the injuries and domestic abuse)? 

[Second Base]

59 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Why is this the expectation for him? He is 21 and just completed an outstanding season. Why can't he be another Jose Reyes (sans the injuries and domestic abuse)? 

That isn't the expectation, just the realistic outcome.  If we were to put the outcome of prospects on a spectrum...

1. Lottery - Very few prospects reach this conclusion, and even the ones that do, you may not notice. It's only the ones with a huge ceiling that meet that ceiling that we truly notice. This is the Mike Trout. 

2. Good outcome - A player isn't quite the stud envisioned, but still a good major leaguer, depending on their upside.

3. Realistic outcome - If he's a good prospect, he becomes an ok regular in the major leagues. If he's a marginal prospect, he becomes AA depth. This is where the vast majority of prospects land.

4. Unfavorable outcome - This prospect doesn't live up to the expectations set. They still may end up as role players or reserves, but don't end up moving the needle much.

5. Bust - The prospect never materializes, regardless of promise. 

----------------------------------

So if Luis Rengifo hits the lottery, yeah, I'd say he's Jose Reyes, the sort that turns in regular 4-6 win seasons. If he reaches his good outcome, which I'd say is Chone Figgins, he'll be an everyday player that accumulates 2-4 wins per season. And the realistic outcome for Rengifo would probably be a 1-3 win player, like Izturis. The unfavorable outcome here would be that he's a career backup and AAA depth. Replacement level. And bust would be that last season was a fluke and he's never that good again. 

And even on this spectrum, some players are more likely to reach their ceilings than others. I'd consider it a small disappointment if Rengifo never became more than Izturis. I know that's a realistic outcome, but I think his likelihood of reaching a better outcome than that is high. 

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, RBM said:

My point was it’s way too soon too be talking about Brandon Marsh replacing Justin Upton in a future Angels OF. He was injured and didn’t play in 2016. He was limited due to injury in 2017. This year he hit .266 with 158 K’s and had 8 OF errors in A/A+ ball. Marsh needs to perform at A+/AA this year...and then he will merit discussion. I’m rooting for him, he’s a hell of an athlete. 

I suppose I can agree with that. Yeah, we'll all root for him. If he reaches his ceiling, he's basically Charlie Blackmon. His likelier outcome is probably that of Joc Pederson or Josh Reddick. 

[Second Base]

Just for fun, I thought I'd do Jo Adell on the prospect outcome spectrum.

1. Lottery - A Barry Bonds level athlete, at least when he was clean. Legitimate 8-9 win player every year. 

2. Good Outcome - An Andre Dawson level player. The sort that's hits .280+ with 30/30 potential each year in his prime, with multiple Gold Gloves. 7-8 win potential each year. 

3. Likely Outcome - A Torii Hunter type of player. 3-5 win player with 25 HR and 15 SB type of speed with good defense.

4. Unfavorable Outcome - A Cameron Maybin level player. One whose immense tools never fully materialize but still manages to be a lower tier starting OF or 4th OF. Pretty much a 0-2 win player. 

5. Bust - He never conquers AA. 

There is a very good chance Jo Adell will be a better than average starting outfielder by the time he's 22.

[Angelsjunky]

The over/under on disappointment is between 2 and 3, in my opinion. If he's a Torii Hunter type, he'll be slightly disappointing becasue we're all hoping for at least the good outcome.

 

[Stradling]

I’m not a scout, I’m not going to pretend to be one, but give me a damn break with options one and two.   So option one is the greatest hitter ever (PEDs helped).  Option 2, which is labeled “good outcome” is a Hall of Famer.  We should be damn happy if he turns into a Torii Hunter type of player.  He was a 5 time all star and 9 time gold glove winner.  I’ll be happy if he’s George Spinger or Justin Upton.   

[Lou]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he won't ever be a #1

[Broad Street]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

I’m not a scout, I’m not going to pretend to be one, but give me a damn break with options one and two.   So option one is the greatest hitter ever (PEDs helped).  Option 2, which is labeled “good outcome” is a Hall of Famer.  We should be damn happy if he turns into a Torii Hunter type of player.  He was a 5 time all star and 9 time gold glove winner.  I’ll be happy if he’s George Spinger or Justin Upton.   

Agreed. I think option 3 would be fantastic and would give us the best OF in baseball.

 

Obviously I wouldn't be upset of he somehow became a 1 or 2, but I HIGHLY DOUBT he's going to be better than Trout.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Lou said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he won't ever be a #1

Very few players ever hit their lottery. The vast majority fall with the range of expected outcome. I expect Luis Rengifo will be an Izturis level player, and Adell will be a Hunter/Upton level player.

[Angelsjunky]

It is normal to have high expectations for prospects of Adell’s caliber. Hunter/Upton are not true stars (5+ WAR) but more like borderline stars (3-5 WAR, as Scotty said). 

If Adell turns into a 3-5 WAR player, that’s nothing to scoff at. But I still hope he’s a 5+ WAR star player. He very well could be.

As far as Scotty’s options, I’d say the chances are something like <5/25/40/30. So the median is a 3-5 WAR player with roughly equal chances of being below or above that.

[Angel Oracle]

17 hours ago, RBM said:

I think Rengifo has the potential to be much better than Figgins was. He could be a Jose Ramirez type of player. His rise through A+/AA/AAA last year was impressive. 

I'm thinking halfway between Figgins and Ramirez.    Ramirez is proof that power can break out, but I don't want to get my hopes too high.

Not a bad exchange for trading Cron

[Taylor]

On 11/25/2018 at 8:13 PM, Second Base said:

Just for fun, I thought I'd do Jo Adell on the prospect outcome spectrum.

1. Lottery - A Barry Bonds level athlete, at least when he was clean. Legitimate 8-9 win player every year. 

2. Good Outcome - An Andre Dawson level player. The sort that's hits .280+ with 30/30 potential each year in his prime, with multiple Gold Gloves. 7-8 win potential each year. 

3. Likely Outcome - A Torii Hunter type of player. 3-5 win player with 25 HR and 15 SB type of speed with good defense.

4. Unfavorable Outcome - A Cameron Maybin level player. One whose immense tools never fully materialize but still manages to be a lower tier starting OF or 4th OF. Pretty much a 0-2 win player. 

5. Bust - He never conquers AA. 

There is a very good chance Jo Adell will be a better than average starting outfielder by the time he's 22.

Once again, all of the potential comparisons are other black dudes.

[Second Base]

22 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Once again, all of the potential comparisons are other black dudes.

Why would I go out of my way to find white guys that Adell compares to just for the sake of not offending you or sounding racist? A great African American prospect has the potential to be among the greatest African American players ever, and those African Americans are among the best to ever play regardless of race.  I don't care if you compare Adell to Trout or Bonds, I just appreciate the fact that the potential is there. 

And I didn't list Trout as Adell's ceiling because I remember Trout at 19. He was faster than Adell, with better defense and plate discipline and that's before Mike really started hitting the gym. Now that he's matured, Trout's abilities are the stuff of legend. I don't see Adell developing Trout's pitch recognition or plate discipline, or his ability to adjust as quickly as he does.

That's no slight to Adell, because Trout may be the . I think pretty much everyone comes up short in comparison. So I compared Adell's "lottery ceiling" to that of the next best thing that I've seen, Bonds. But again, this is splitting hairs. The chances of any prospect, much less one as good as Adell ever reaching their ceiling is probably less than 1%.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

Once again, all of the potential comparisons are other black dudes.

Ironically, BBREF has Torii Hunter’s similar batter score closest to...Chili Davis, Dave Parker, Carlos Lee, Dwight Evans, and Joe Carter, with Vernon Wells, Jermaine Dye, and Dave Parker showing up on similarity by age.

Chone Figgins? Tony Womack, Michael Bourn, Bip Roberts, Denard Span, and a bunch of ol’ white pre-Jackie dudes. 

I kinda get that comps are often racially similar, but I don’t think it has to do with skin color or physiology, but rather their background in the game. More often than not, the African-American players come from a multi-sport background and are fantastic athletes, coming from areas where baseball is secondary to basketball and football. White players are either huge country-strong dudes who get by throwing hard or hitting hard and not much else, or on the other side, have benefited from strong coaching and competitive backgrounds since youth and are more well-rounded and coached as a result to help overcome their athletic shortcomings. Japanese baseball places far more emphasis on contact and discipline and situational offense, so it’s no surprise most Japanese hitters that have success in the bigs bring that skill set. Most Latin players are signed at a very young age on the strength of one raw, elite, standout skill that they’ve developed at that point - raw power, electric movement or velocity, elite glove, fantastic speed - whatever they were good enough at to allow them to play with the older boys competitively. 

Case in point, it actually is a little tricky coming up with a white/Latin/Asia equivalent to Torii Hunter’s career average of .280/.330/.460/.790 110 OPS+ with 30 doubles, 25 HR, 13 SB and great defense. I honestly can’t come up with someone who had was comparable across the board to Torii that isn’t black. They all had at least one or two aspects of their game that was much stronger or much less than Torii.

I honestly can't name a single non-Latin switch-hitter in baseball right now either, off the top of my head.

[Blarg]

49 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Why would I go out of my way to find white guys that Adell compares to just for the sake of not offending you or sounding racist? 

Specifically targeting all black guys as comps is kinda racist and but even more mentally lazy than anything else.

You are not the only one, Trout gets likened to Mickey Mantle but not Willie Mays.