Why not just sign Arrieta?

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Obviously the Cubs have a different opinion of Jake than you do ...  according to your post. I trust their opinion more so but I agree about the years and money. 

Since Arrieta and Darvish are relatively the same age ... should be interesting who pitches better over the next five years. 

Considering the Cubs went in a different direction .....  Guess they don't have a different opinion of him...

[totdprods]

30 GS, 168.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 8 H9, 1.2 HR9, 2.9 BB9, 8.7 K9 (Jake's 2017 season)
28 GS, 143.1 IP, 3.69 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 8.2 H9, 1.4 HR9, 2.6 BB9, 8 K9 (Player A's 2016 campaign)
29 GS, 179.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 8.8 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.2 BB9, 6.4 K9 (Player B's 2017 campaign)
33 GS, 186.1 IP, 3.43 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 124 ERA+, 7.3 H9, 1.3 HR9, 3.8 BB9, 7.4 K9 (Player C's 2017 campaign)
32 GS, 189.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 8.2 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.1 BB9, 7.3 K9 (Player D's 2016 campaign)
11 GS, 61.0 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 112 ERA+, 8.6 H9, 0.9 HR9, 3.5 BB9, 10.6 K9, (Half of Player E's 2017 campaign)

This is Jake's most recent season, and five other starters who are readily available. 
Jake will cost $18m-25m+ annually. 
Two of those will likely cost 50-75% of what Jake costs.
One will cost 25-33% of what Jake costs.
One is available for a couple decent prospects.
One of those will likely cost nothing more than a ST invite. 

Jake certainly has the best odds of replicating or exceeding that line, no doubt. But I don't see how $18-25m is worth that chance when there are several options who have recently put up nearly identical seasons as Jake's '17 for dramatically less cost. Jake's also the oldest, and likeliest to have the longest commitment.  

Given our rotation depth, I'd just as soon throw less money and hope you get one of those guys to produce one of their good years.

(A = Odorizzi, B = Cobb, C =Lynn, D = Hellickson,  E = Cahill)

[mulwin444]

8 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Considering the Cubs went in a different direction .....  Guess they don't have a different opinion of him...

[Troll Daddy]

46 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Considering the Cubs went in a different direction .....  Guess they don't have a different opinion of him...

Maybe I misunderstood ... I thought they offered Arrieta a like deal before they gave it to Darvish. 

[Angel Oracle]

Bora$$ is finally being put in his place by the owners.    It is frustrating to see the lesser players not signed by teams yet, but I have little sympathy for Bora$$ and the players he represents. 

6 years/$180 million for a pitcher starting his decline these past couple of years, and already is into his 30s?    Really? Really? Really?   Really??

[Erstad Grit]

I'd rather trade some high prospects for Archer and Colome .

UNLESS Jake gets down to something like 3/75

[NJHalo]

I would rather spend the money on Alex Cobb, who puts up good numbers playing on a mediocre team, in a division with stacked lineups and hitter's ballparks.

I predict he would have a career year playing in Anaheim.

[SigBaby]

I've always been a big fan of Cobb's, but he's really just as much of a question mark health wise as the rest of our rotation. I get that Arrieta has red flags and I wouldn't pay him more than Darvish money, but I would be in favor of signing him to a similar deal with 4 or 5 years. We wouldn't be paying him to be the ace he was, we'd be paying him to be our best starter for this year and next. How much do you guys think he is worth if we're paying him soley based on future performance?

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, NJHalo said:

I would rather spend the money on Alex Cobb, who puts up good numbers playing on a mediocre team, in a division with stacked lineups and hitter's ballparks.

I predict he would have a career year playing in Anaheim.

I honestly would  be fine with any 5 of the alternatives I listed simply because of the difference in cost. Totally understand that Arrieta has the potential to be a whole lot better than any one of them, and is the best bet at repeating a good season, but I don't think the tens of extra millions he'll cost is worth the risk with his age.

I feel the chances of Arrieta bouncing back and giving you his 2016 season are just as good as the chances of Hellickson/Lynn/Cobb/Cahill/Odorizzi coming in and replicating their own strong recent successful season, and they'll come with a whole lot less cost and commitment, and are a million times easier to dump if they underwhelm. I honestly like the idea of Odorizzi more than anything currently present as a rotation solution. He won't cost a fortune, he's controllable, at worst he's redundant, at best he's a new #2.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Maybe I misunderstood ... I thought they offered Arrieta a like deal before they gave it to Darvish. 

I believe what I read is they offered it, he declined, so they went with Darvish.  So it wasn’t really the Cubs having a different opinion.  If anything maybe Arrieta has a different opinion of his worth.  

[tdawg87]

Since Darvish set the market I assume Arrieta will get something like 5/115. Meh.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Since Darvish set the market I assume Arrieta will get something like 5/115. Meh.

I think he will get at least what Darvish got.  But I could be wrong.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Maybe I misunderstood ... I thought they offered Arrieta a like deal before they gave it to Darvish. 

And when he wanted more they went in a different direction.   They clearly didn't believe he was worth it.

[Troll Daddy]

5 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

And when he wanted more they went in a different direction.   They clearly didn't believe he was worth it.

Correct ... although, he was worth Darvish money in their eyes which was my original point.

I’m against signing Arrieta for different reasons. The Angels really aren’t in a desirable position for a big money FA. Their interest in Lincecum shows they’re dumpster diving for a another lost cost pitcher of some sort. 

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

I think Eppler will stay Pat until the trade deadline and make a trade similar for a pitcher, similar to the Upton trade.

[HaloNArizona]

6 hours ago, OHTANILAND said:

Arte doesn’t like to pay for pitching. We have yet to give any starting pitcher a bigger contract than the cheap hometown discount that Weaver accepted. 

CJ Wilson?

 

CONTRACT:5 yr(s) / $77,500,000

SIGNING BONUS:$2,500,000

AVERAGE SALARY:$15,500,000

FREE AGENT:2017 / UFA

YEAR   AGE BASE SALARY SIGNING BONUS INCENTIVE TOTAL SALARY ADJUSTED SALARY 2012 31 $10,000,000 $500,000 $50,000 $10,550,000 $10,550,000 2013 32 $11,000,000 $500,000 - $11,500,000 $11,500,000 2014 33 $16,000,000 $500,000 - $16,500,000 $16,500,000 2015 34 $18,000,000 $500,000 - $18,500,000 $18,500,000 2016 35 $20,000,000 $500,000 - $20,500,000 $20,500,00

[Ohtaniland]

8 minutes ago, HaloNArizona said:

CJ Wilson?

 

CONTRACT:5 yr(s) / $77,500,000

SIGNING BONUS:$2,500,000

AVERAGE SALARY:$15,500,000

FREE AGENT:2017 / UFA

YEAR   AGE BASE SALARY SIGNING BONUS INCENTIVE TOTAL SALARY ADJUSTED SALARY 2012 31 $10,000,000 $500,000 $50,000 $10,550,000 $10,550,000 2013 32 $11,000,000 $500,000 - $11,500,000 $11,500,000 2014 33 $16,000,000 $500,000 - $16,500,000 $16,500,000 2015 34 $18,000,000 $500,000 - $18,500,000 $18,500,000 2016 35 $20,000,000 $500,000 - $20,500,000 $20,500,00

CJ Wilson’s total contract cost did not exceed Jered Weaver’s. 

[Turd Ferguson]

Let's give him 2 years, $45M with a player option after year 1. 

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Turd Ferguson said:

Let's give him 2 years, $45M with a player option after year 1. 

i was going to say 2/40 with a team option, but yours works, too. if arrieta is willing to sign for something like that, i'd be interested in signing him to a short contract with option years.

[totdprods]

21 minutes ago, Tank said:

i was going to say 2/40 with a team option, but yours works, too. if arrieta is willing to sign for something like that, i'd be interested in signing him to a short contract with option years.

You don't think he could use that offer to get more out of Milwaukee or Minnesota?

If those were the terms, sure, I'd be down, but even if he dramatically lowers his expectations, someone will be willing to top whatever that is.

[ten ocho recon scout]

9 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

 You really should pick a side -- you constantly rail at Arte for spending big money on FAs but you seemingly are chiding him for not liking to pay for pitching.  

This

[Tank]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

You don't think he could use that offer to get more out of Milwaukee or Minnesota?

If those were the terms, sure, I'd be down, but even if he dramatically lowers his expectations, someone will be willing to top whatever that is.

i'm sure he could use any offer to try and leverage more out of someone else. that's the inherent risk.

it'll come down to things like location, potential to win, and who he gets to play with. the fact that we have trout and simmons and our defense behind him can be used as major selling points to convince him to sign here (if there are similar offers). if someone else is willing to pony up 5/160, well, we probably won't stand much of a chance to sway him to come here.

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, OHTANILAND said:

CJ Wilson’s total contract cost did not exceed Jered Weaver’s. 

But it was the largest contract given out to a FA SP that year....  I know that doesn't further your narrative but, facts are a burdensome thing.  

[Turd Ferguson]

11 hours ago, Tank said:

i'm sure he could use any offer to try and leverage more out of someone else. that's the inherent risk.

it'll come down to things like location, potential to win, and who he gets to play with. the fact that we have trout and simmons and our defense behind him can be used as major selling points to convince him to sign here (if there are similar offers). if someone else is willing to pony up 5/160, well, we probably won't stand much of a chance to sway him to come here.

Exactly. If he is looking to "bet on himself" on a "prove it" type contract, there are worse places to play and defenses to play in front of -- especially for a P that generates a lot of ground ball outs. If a team is willing to go 4, 5, 6 years for him, then so be it. I don't see a Boras guy taking a deal like this but it's probably the one type of deal I'd be comfortable with for him.

[eaterfan]

I think we should go to him with a 1 year $1 million take it or leave it offer. I'm sure that will get it done.