The Yelich Haul

[Angelsjunky]

So you might have noticed that Yelich was traded to the Brewers for four prospects: Outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, 2B Isan Diaz, and RHP Jordan Yamanato. You can read the takes of Fangraphs and John Sickels.

But let's talk Angels, specifically: What would the equivalent group of prospects have been?

Fangraphs has a valuation system (FV) that corresponds with the scouting scale, and ranks the prospects like so: Brinson (60), Harrison (55), Diaz (50), Yamanato (40).

Other than Ohtani (70), they don't rank any of the Angels' prospects above 50, mainly because their best prospects are so young, so the closest would be: Adell (50), Jones (50), Maitan (50), and Suarez (40). Perhaps a more accurate comp would be a year from now, assuming Adell and Jones (or Marsh) continue to develop as hoped. So nothing too surprising.

Baseball America has the following rankings: Brinson #18, Adell #46, Harrison #75, Jones #89. So again, the Adell/Jones (or Marsh) are the closest comps.

So a question: Would you have traded Adell, one of Jones/Marsh, Maitan, and one of Suarez/Pena/Castillo/Bard/etc?

I'd say no, but I'm of the Stoneman school in terms of hoarding prospects. I'd rather see what our guys turn into, and for me it is just too much to give up even though Yelich is really good and not only represents the absolute upside of Jones, would be a very good outcome for Adell/Maitan, and also could get better. But I like our prospects and want to see how they turn out, and in the end the gap between Kole and Yelich--while there--isn't so huge that I'd give up three of our five best prospects just to bridge it.

 

[Dtwncbad]

All I hope is Eppler was interested and priced it out.

[Troll Daddy]

A bird in the hand is worth 4 in the bush

Both sides have different needs obviously ... it works. Prospects are always a gamble. Sure the may become league average players. I think the Marlins are hoping for more in return. 

I’m guessing the Brewers know more about these prospects than anyone. I sense they don’t see a superstar in any of them. 

[HaloNArizona]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So you might have noticed that Yelich was traded to the Brewers for four prospects: Outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, 2B Isan Diaz, and RHP Jordan Yamanato. You can read the takes of Fangraphs and John Sickels.

But let's talk Angels, specifically: What would the equivalent group of prospects have been?

Fangraphs has a valuation system (FV) that corresponds with the scouting scale, and ranks the prospects like so: Brinson (60), Harrison (55), Diaz (50), Yamanato (40).

Other than Ohtani (70), they don't rank any of the Angels' prospects above 50, mainly because their best prospects are so young, so the closest would be: Adell (50), Jones (50), Maitan (50), and Suarez (40). Perhaps a more accurate comp would be a year from now, assuming Adell and Jones (or Marsh) continue to develop as hoped. So nothing too surprising.

Baseball America has the following rankings: Brinson #18, Adell #46, Harrison #75, Jones #89. So again, the Adell/Jones (or Marsh) are the closest comps.

So a question: Would you have traded Adell, one of Jones/Marsh, Maitan, and one of Suarez/Pena/Castillo/Bard/etc?

I'd say no, but I'm of the Stoneman school in terms of hoarding prospects. I'd rather see what our guys turn into, and for me it is just too much to give up even though Yelich is really good and not only represents the absolute upside of Jones, would be a very good outcome for Adell/Maitan, and also could get better. But I like our prospects and want to see how they turn out, and in the end the gap between Kole and Yelich--while there--isn't so huge that I'd give up three of our five best prospects just to bridge it.

 

With Trout and Upton in the fold for quite some time, and Kole in RF and Herm in the wings...I would hold onto our prospects.  Based on same comparisons, we could have a solid  team for years to come.

[totdprods]

I feel like it would have been Adell, Jones, Barria, and one of Thaiss/Ward. I was spitballing early on that it'd take two OF prospects, a pitcher, and a 4th prospect  and that's exactly what it came out too. The biggest difference is the Marlins opted for a pitcher much further away from MLB ready, which I had expected would be a priority for them. Isan Diaz really doesn't have a comp in the Angels system - Leo Rivas mixed with Maitan - but Maitan isn't being dealt this soon after signing and Rivas is too far off to have mega-value yet. Plus the Angels are just too thin to trade from IF prospects at this time.

I would not have traded that package for Yelich. Not worth the loss of that much upside to our system. I would have topped off at Marsh, Jones, one of Thaiss/Ward, and any SP not named Barria. 

If a deal could have been made with Barria and Adell making up about 80% of the return value, with say Ward, Rivas, Hermosillo, Fletcher, Middleton making up the last piece (only a 3 for 1) I would have pulled the trigger....reluctantly....but doubt that would have gotten it done.

Overall, I felt the Angels prospects matched the Marlins needs nicely and the return they got confirmed that the match was close - we could deal from OF prospects without it killing us, we could deal one arm and use money saved or Kole to land a replacement SP, and we'd likely have one lesser prospect to slot in as the last piece, but Marlins picked who they wanted or Eppler balked. I'm fine with it if it would have cost us the heavier end like mentioned above, but still feel Yelich is going to wind up being a really good addition for the Brewers and I would not be surprised if we're looking back three years from now and think about what could have been.

[Angelsjunky]

24 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

A bird in the hand is worth 4 in the bush

Both sides have different needs obviously ... it works. Prospects are always a gamble. Sure the may become league average players. I think the Marlins are hoping for more in return. 

I’m guessing the Brewers know more about these prospects than anyone. I sense they don’t see a superstar in any of them. 

Not necessarily, not always, and it depends upon who the "birds" are. I mean, I get the logic but...it isn't so simple.

[ettin]

We often debate on this board about what group of prospects we would have to give up to obtain Superstar Player X but we never really consider one of the most important factors which is proximity of said prospects to the Majors and what the team that we are sending those prospects to wants for their planned future to compete (their window of contention).

Interestingly it was reported that the Marlins were looking for upper level talent in prospects which made it inherently difficult for the Angels to obtain Yelich based on our current farm system and the fact that most of our prospects are in the lower Minors (i.e. their future values were limited because they have not shown an ability in AA or AAA yet to show more of their true potential value).

The point I am making and many forget is that the proverbial "finding the right fit" works both ways in a trade. We have to have the right assets to obtain the right player from a team that needs those particular assets that aligns into their projected, corresponding window of contention. It is rare that a big name gets traded without taking those considerations into account.

Right now the Angels fit up best with a team that is just beginning or is considering to begin a long-term rebuild. Why do you think we have made two trades with the Tigers in the last 10 months? Our needs fit with theirs in both prospects and timing.

In my mind over the next 12 months we are generally likely to do more business with teams like the Tigers, Reds, Rays, and Royals for example than other clubs. I'm not saying we couldn't execute a trade with another team just that the odds lean a little more toward those teams than say the Yankees or Dodgers for instance. Every team has a surplus somewhere in their Minor League system and the Angels could always potentially line up with any team if both of them have an urgent need to fill.

As I said previously I was quite positive the Angels would inquire on Yelich but if Stanton had less than a 10% chance of happening, Christian probably had less than a 1% chance of happening in my mind. AJ is right about having to give up Adell, Jones, Maitan, and another 40 FV guy it was simply way too much to give up which is why I stated we would need to add at least one Major League player like Calhoun to shore up the value we were sending. The problem with the latter is that the Marlins are trying to SHED salary not take on more.

This proposed trade for the Angels to acquire Yelich was done before it ever started in all probability.

[Blarg]

The distance between Calhoun in right field and Yelich is not four top prospects from the Angels. That is primarily why this deal was never going to happen. The incremental change from what we have to what we would get was not worth the expense. 

[Tyler]

The Angels were good to pass on Yelich. It would have taken Jones, Adell, and other in comparison. Not worth it when we have 3 OF already..

[HaloNArizona]

27 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The distance between Calhoun in right field and Yelich is not four top prospects from the Angels. That is primarily why this deal was never going to happen. The incremental change from what we have to what we would get was not worth the expense. 

Just for sh!ts and giggles:

1st year in the minors:

Yelich: .362/.400.868

Adell: .325/.376/.908

Jones: .302/.379/.801

Thaiss: .292/.361/.824

 

I think it's worth hanging onto these guys....

[Turd Ferguson]

I like Yelich. I'm ok with us passing at that price. Good for the Brewers, and good for the Marlins. On to the next one...

[VariousCrap]

Yelich would have been worth it if the Angels had a need for RF, but they don't.  We know what Kole can do and I expect him to return to his normal offense next season.

[Dtwncbad]

50 minutes ago, Blarg said:

The distance between Calhoun in right field and Yelich is not four top prospects from the Angels. That is primarily why this deal was never going to happen. The incremental change from what we have to what we would get was not worth the expense. 

Your point is fine in measuring production in 2018.

But the full analysis would include putting a value on more years of control and cost of Yelich, and would also consider what you could get for Calhoun.

 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

So you might have noticed that Yelich was traded to the Brewers for four prospects: Outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, 2B Isan Diaz, and RHP Jordan Yamanato. You can read the takes of Fangraphs and John Sickels.

But let's talk Angels, specifically: What would the equivalent group of prospects have been?

Fangraphs has a valuation system (FV) that corresponds with the scouting scale, and ranks the prospects like so: Brinson (60), Harrison (55), Diaz (50), Yamanato (40).

Other than Ohtani (70), they don't rank any of the Angels' prospects above 50, mainly because their best prospects are so young, so the closest would be: Adell (50), Jones (50), Maitan (50), and Suarez (40). Perhaps a more accurate comp would be a year from now, assuming Adell and Jones (or Marsh) continue to develop as hoped. So nothing too surprising.

Baseball America has the following rankings: Brinson #18, Adell #46, Harrison #75, Jones #89. So again, the Adell/Jones (or Marsh) are the closest comps.

So a question: Would you have traded Adell, one of Jones/Marsh, Maitan, and one of Suarez/Pena/Castillo/Bard/etc?

I'd say no, but I'm of the Stoneman school in terms of hoarding prospects. I'd rather see what our guys turn into, and for me it is just too much to give up even though Yelich is really good and not only represents the absolute upside of Jones, would be a very good outcome for Adell/Maitan, and also could get better. But I like our prospects and want to see how they turn out, and in the end the gap between Kole and Yelich--while there--isn't so huge that I'd give up three of our five best prospects just to bridge it.

 

I hope, for the Fish sake, this trade works out a lot better than the Cabrera trade did.   Talk about virtually nothing being acquired for a future HOF only 24/25 at the time.

Back on the subject of trades involving prospects, if you have a strong farm then a trade like that for Yelich can be absorbed on the farm.   But if you are the Halos, they still need to get a little stronger on the farm before making that kind of deal.   And you don't make that kind of deal when OF is your strength on the farm and at the MLB level.   

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

The distance between Calhoun in right field and Yelich is not four top prospects from the Angels. That is primarily why this deal was never going to happen. The incremental change from what we have to what we would get was not worth the expense. 

So you’re saying we can flip Calhoun for two top prospects

[zenmaster]

I'll let you know in about 5 years if I think we should have made that trade.

[tdawg87]

If we made that trade all the progress the system has made would be flushed down the toilet.

If we had a hole in right I'd say it might be worth the gamble. But as great as Yelich is, he's not significant an upgrade enough to warrant decimating the farm. 

I mean, Adell and Jones is a steep price as it is. But throw in Barria and another solid prospect and it's a hard pill to swallow. But that's at least what it would have cost. 

I think you only make that kind of trade for a legit frontline starter.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Your point is fine in measuring production in 2018.

But the full analysis would include putting a value on more years of control and cost of Yelich, and would also consider what you could get for Calhoun.

 

I like Yelich, I watched him play in winter ball years ago and he was definitely talented. Wish the Angels could have aquired him back then but he was close to untouchable. Now, I don't think his trade value is the same for the Angels because they already have talent in all three outfield positions. So this clubs break even point is higher than a team that has a hole to fill.

Still not sure why the Brewers let a guy who should be MLB ready go in the deal rather than play him. I guess they really wanted a known value now instead of living with the growing pains. For the Fish, Brinson will get plenty of playing time, which will be good for him.

[eaterfan]

I wouldn't have traded for Yelich if the price was anything near what the Brewers gave up. I'm actually surprised there was much support for it on this board. The board largely freaked out when we gave up 1 year of Aybar and Sean Newcomb for Andrelton Simmons. Now we would essentially be trading 4 top prospects and getting rid of Calhoun's spot for Yelich? He's a nice player but the need for him wasn't as great as it was for a SS when we traded for Simmons. Aybar had one year left and was entering his age 32 season. Calhoun has 3 left and is entering his age 30 season. The three years before being traded Simmons put up 14.3 WAR and Yelich put up 12.7. Both have roughly the same AAV for their contracts and the same length of contract remaining. 

I know the Simmons deal was a steal and we shouldn't expect that again. But we had a greater need at SS, Simmons was the better player, and the packages weren't even close. Given that info I'm surprised how the board reacted to this potential deal. I guess the farm system is deeper now, but I don't think passing up deals as good as the Simmons trade only to pay a higher price later is the right way to do things.

[Second Base]

Yelich is a very good player. I can't overvalue him really. Young, talented, controllable, inexpensive and versatile. 

I won't regrets holding onto Adell, Jones, Barria and Thaiss though.

That's one all-star outfielder for an all-star OF, a good starting OF, a solid #3/4 starter and an average starting 1B.

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

Yelich is a very good player. I can't overvalue him really. Young, talented, controllable, inexpensive and versatile. 

I won't regrets holding onto Adell, Jones, Barria and Thaiss though.

That's one all-star outfielder for an all-star OF, a good starting OF, a solid #3/4 starter and an average starting 1B.

You set your expectations high as always ... I’ll keep my fingers crossed as always. It’ll come down to hitting ML pitching. The athleticism is there. 

 

[eligrba]

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

The distance between Calhoun in right field and Yelich is not four top prospects from the Angels. That is primarily why this deal was never going to happen. The incremental change from what we have to what we would get was not worth the expense. 

This....

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

You set your expectations high as always ... I’ll keep my fingers crossed as always. It’ll come down to hitting ML pitching. The athleticism is there. 

 

I'm a high expectations kind of guy, but what I said really isn't shooting too high. Let's take a look.

1. I called Adell a future all-star. He's the most talented player from this last draft with the most power abs upside. He ranked #55 on Law's Top 100 prospects and Law himself said he has the highest upside of any player ranked above 50. 

2. I called Jahmai Jones a starting OF. I think since he's drawing comps to Andrew McCutchen, simply calling him a starting OF was playing it safe.

3. I called Jaime Barria a future #3/4 starter. I mean he's a top 100 prospect and showed little difficulty in handing the hitter friendly PCL in his age 20 season. AAA at age 20. I'd say that's a reasonable expectation.

4. I called Matt Thaiss a starting 1B. He's ticketed to take over 1B for the Angels in 2019 or sooner. Former first round pick, made it to AA in his first year of pro ball and reached base at over a .400 clip while there. I'd be shocked if Matt Thaiss wasn't the Angels starting 1B and batting toward the top of their lineup by the time he's 24.

So yes, while I do admit my expectations are high, the four players I named have done everything to make those expectations legitimate and reasonable.

[Docwaukee]

You get Yelich at about 5/60.  Let's be generous and call him a 5 WAR player per year over that time for 25 WAR.   And let's be clear, there are five give who have 25 WAR or more over the last five years.  If you expand to 23 WAR, you get 10 guys.  

Assume  Adell, Jones, Barria, Thaiss to get him.  

So let's talk exchanges.  

You've got Kole at 3/32.5.  I'll give him 3 WAR per or 9 total.  So the delta is set at 16 WAR

But of course Kole has value in trade.   You aren't getting Brinson, but probably a top 100 in the lower half plus a couple decent guys.  Essentially, what Milwaukee gave up minus Brinson, or something equivalent to Jones,  Castillo and a throw in.  So you're getting half of your prospect value back.   Or you move Kole for a pitcher.  

So in essence though, the exchange costs you Adell and Barria.    But you've also got to account for the two years post Kole where you've got another 12-15mil per to spend just to even out the money.  Let's say you get an additional 2 WAR per for that or 4 WAR So you are down to 12 WAR  needed to make up the difference.  If you pay for that on the open market it costs you in other areas.  If you get it at league min, it gives you more options.  

It's not cut and dry.  Lot's of moving parts 

I lean toward keeping our prospects at this point.  OR, if we were going to give up that kind of haul, I'd rather just go get a top tier pitcher like Stroman assuming he's available.  

 

[Angelsfirst]

I definitely would not give up that load of prospects for Yelich. As others have said he’s a good player but definitely not worth that price.

That 5/80 deal Cain got seems very reasonable on the other hand. I’m a big fan of his game. I think he actually has a chance of living up to that contract. 

Oh well, Kole had a down year but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back given the added protection in the lineup this offseason.

Also I would wait until at least mid season to see where this team is at to see if it’s even worth trading off our prospects and trying to go all in and win now.