It's okay to trade prospects for proven MLB talent

[beatlesrule]

https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-mlb-prospects-traded-in-recent-history/c-210477932

That's just one of the first articles I googled.  I am sure there are many others.  The point of my post is to show that a lot of the times, prospects don't amount to much.  Most of us remember the botched Miguel Cabrera non trade the Angels didn't make.  The 4 or 5 players the Marlins would have gotten back are all gone from the team now and none of them became the superstar that Cabrera turned into. Also, none of the guys the Angels kept brought the team a championship or even World Series appearance.  The most recent trade involving our top prospects looks good so far for the Angels(Simmons).  Prospects are just that.  If the Angels can improve their major league club(especially with Trout's next 3 years) by trading guys that might be good one day for a guy or 2 that IS good right now, Eppler should absolutely do it.  There are some names out there that could potentially be traded that would be an immediate upgrade to the Angels 25 man roster.  What prospects of the Angels that people here or in the media gushed over and the Angels refused to include in trade talks have actually worked out?  Which of them are still playing for the Angels and contributing/living up to their hype?  Trout doesn't count since he was not in the minors for very long and at no time did the Angels try to trade him.

I am not stating that you should trade high prospects for mediocre MLB talent.  I am merely reminding people that guys that might be good one day mostly aren't and if you have a guy that has proven he is a good to great MLB player and is available, you should get him.  Now, I was against trading Segura for Greinke unless it was a guarantee that the Angels signed him but he FO felt at the time it was worth the risk.  That didn't turn out well and you could maybe make a case for the Haren trade but overall, teams usually getting the proven MLB talent "win" the trade.  I know I will probably get blasted by some posters here that value prospects as the most important way to build a roster and you should never trade any prospects but with Trout's time here not getting any longer, Eppler shouldn't be afraid to trade maybe for guarantees.

[eaterfan]

I missed Cabrera leading the Tigers to a WS win. Which year was that?

All joking aside, I don't think anyone here is against ever trading a prospect or multiple prospects. I think most people just want to see good trades that don't cripple the organization down the road. Eppler had shown a great ability to do that so far. He hasn't been shy about trading away prospects when he got a good deal. He's the one making the decisions so it doesn't matter.

As for my personal philosophy, I would try to make the organization as strong as it can be heading into the 2020 season. A solid young core and strong farm with financial flexibility will be far more convincing to Trout and other players than the team making the ALCS two years prior. But even if that's not enough to convince Trout to stay it could be enough to keep the team in contention after he leaves, especially if he needs a big return in a trade.

I think this should have been the approach since it became clear Pujols and Hamilton weren't going to help us reach a WS. I think Eppler has done a wonderful job of that so far while giving us the added bonus of being competitive a little earlier than I could have hoped. The payroll is stable with money coming off the books in the future, the core is younger, and the farm system is much improved. Another 2 years following this plan should see us with a top 10-15 farm, enough money to retain Trout or sign another big time FA, and be an annual 90 game winner.

[beatlesrule]

Cabrera won back to back MVP's and took Detroit to the World Series.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Cabrera won back to back MVP's and took Detroit to the World Series.

So you admit he never won a WS for the Tigers?  

Meanwhile the team that kept him on their roster and brought him up...  The Marlins..   They did -- didn't they?    Cabrera was traded away after his 5th year....  when it was clear they wouldn't be able to keep him...    So, if yours is an example of why a team SHOULD trade prospects -- it also serves as an example of why teams should retain them.   

Everyone is familiar with your "all in" POV and that anything other than that is not trying....   At the same time nobody is opposed to trading prospects..   

 

 

 

[Inside Pitch]

19 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I think this should have been the approach since it became clear Pujols and Hamilton weren't going to help us reach a WS. I think Eppler has done a wonderful job of that so far while giving us the added bonus of being competitive a little earlier than I could have hoped. The payroll is stable with money coming off the books in the future, the core is younger, and the farm system is much improved. Another 2 years following this plan should see us with a top 10-15 farm, enough money to retain Trout or sign another big time FA, and be an annual 90 game winner.

Eppler has done an amazing job of positioning this team for the next few years..   BB America already hinted the farm system is likely right around 15 -- another draft like the last two and chances are they break back into the top 10...    Not sure how anyone who's been paying attention to the Angels the last ten years isn't completely amazed at how quickly he's been able to turn this mess around....  

I've always been hopeful Eppler would be able to fix things but never in a million years would I have guessed he would have gotten this much done within 3 years..     The whole end around with Maitan while everyone and their brother was putting everything into Ohtani was freaking awesome...  

[stormngt]

For the record, the Angels did not walk away from the trade for Cabrera because it would cost too many prospects.  They had a seal in place for five players among them Santana, Mathis, Adenhart, Wood, and I think Kendrick.   That was a he'll of a deal for the Marlins.  They reneged because they felt Detroit gave them a better offer.  Considering the MLB success of Santana, Kendrick,  and longevity the Marlins would have been better off going with the Angels offer.  Plus Adenhart would not have been in socal to be hit killed by a drunk driver.

[Docwaukee]

I think the results are pretty mixed actually.  And in more recent times, the prospects seem to be a bit more hit than miss.  It also matters how much control you are getting from the major league player.  Guys like Simmons and Sale end up more likely worth the investment.  Whereas not so much for Greinke or any other 'deadline' deal where you are adding minimal club control.  

The other thing to keep in mind is that regardless of whether a prospect or mlb player works out in either direction, they are organizational currency.  So giving up Addison Russell for Jeff Samrdzija for half a season doesn't suck just because Russell is now pretty good but you lose that value to the org as a whole.  

It the biggest issue as to why the Dipoto method decimates an org long term.  If you are constantly trading something that is worth a dime now, but has a 20% chance of being a dollar later, and it's for something that's currently worth 50 cents or even 25 cents then you are giving up value.  

At the end of the day it's about timing.  How good is your team right now.  How good will they be next year.  How good is your competition.  How good will they be next year.  How much time are you getting from the player acquired.  How close is the player you are giving up to contributing.  

These are all things that GM's are constantly handicapping.  

There is a time and a place where a trade makes sense.  Like the Astros getting Verlander.  They paid a high price and even if they don't win the WS, it was still the right trade.  

[NrM]

fuck that. You don't trade top prospects for overpriced vets. The dodgers, cubs, yankees and astros are powerhouses because they built their teams through the farmsystem.

[Inside Pitch]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

At the end of the day it's about timing.  How good is your team right now.  How good will they be next year.  How good is your competition.  How good will they be next year.  How much time are you getting from the player acquired.  How close is the player you are giving up to contributing.  

Preaaaaaach!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Erstad Grit]

14 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

fuck that. You don't trade top prospects for overpriced vets. The dodgers, cubs, yankees and astros are powerhouses because they built their teams through the farmsystem.

Astros don't win without verlander.

[eaterfan]

18 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Eppler has done an amazing job of positioning this team for the next few years..   BB America already hinted the farm system is likely right around 15 -- another draft like the last two and chances are they break back into the top 10...    Not sure how anyone who's been paying attention to the Angels the last ten years isn't completely amazed at how quickly he's been able to turn this mess around....  

I've always been hopeful Eppler would be able to fix things but never in a million years would I have guessed he would have gotten this much done within 3 years..     The whole end around with Maitan while everyone and their brother was putting everything into Ohtani was freaking awesome...  

Yes, it is amazing. They will take "a step back" when they graduate Ohtani. And it's a lot harder to move from 15-10 than from 30-25. Plus, while I think Eppler has done a great job in the draft it's hard to have that level of success every year. Even the best guys have their ups and downs. But in two years the farm should be legitimately in the top 10-15 if they stay the course.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Yes, it is amazing. They will take "a step back" when they graduate Ohtani. And it's a lot harder to move from 15-10 than from 30-25. Plus, while I think Eppler has done a great job in the draft it's hard to have that level of success every year. Even the best guys have their ups and downs. But in two years the farm should be legitimately in the top 10-15 if they stay the course.

Yep -- he's been lucky.  Lucky other teams have gone in different directions, lucky the guys he has chased have looked to be legit talents.   The one area I think they have just been GOOD at it finding Latin American arms...   The influx of young arms into the system has been the single biggest factor in improving the farm IMO.   Those of us that follow the minors all realize it's not even a question of whether or not those guys actually live up to their potential, any team with 7-10 guys in their teens throwing mid 90s has guys it can move when the need to make a trade arrives.

For me the key has been when he's moved a guy, he's moved it for legit players.   Upton being the best example..   He's avoided the JD special -- ie... three 18 year olds throwing 95 for a platoon DH in the final year of his contract...

[Blarg]

17 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Astros don't win without verlander.

They don't win trading away a young Altuve. 

[eaterfan]

29 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Astros don't win without verlander.

And the Cubs don't win without trading for Rizzo (pretty much a prospect).

[Vlad27Trout27]

It's fine to trade prospects, but now is not the time to consider it. We could easily decimate our system again, but I would rather wait a year or 2 before trading. We are ranked 15ish now and the system is still improving. I also think that Billy and his Scouts know what they have in our system and the potential these guys have. Billy could have easily traded Jones, Canning for Cesar or marsh/ Barria. But he didn't due to the potential. Let's wait a bit and allow the guys to increase there value more. So by 2019/20 instead of trading 2 or 3 good prospects now, we could trade one for a guy similar to Cesar 

[beatlesrule]

I never stated he did. Re read my OP.  I stated that none of the guys the Angels would have traded for him made it to the WS.  Mcab did.

[Vlad27Trout27]

The difference between the astros/Cubs and us is that they had better prospects and depth in there systems to help, Rizzo was a big help to the curb, but so were Brytant, Javy, Reed, conteres and most of there young guys which were prospects and are still young, same with the astros. Both team traded away prospects because they had excess amount and the Mlb roster were filled with more prospects than veterans.

[Blarg]

I think people are getting a little giddy on the off season acquisitions and want to go full shit faced drunk spending.

Upton, Ohtani, Kinsler and Cozart aquired? Hey let's get every big name player you can think of and deplete the farm because that always works out! 

Or we could all sober up and take this slow and see what parts will be permanent and which need to be moved in a longer term plan than two months after the world series ended. 

Each season Eppler has replaced several players but only one signed for long term duty. This season we have three long term contracts in Upton, Ohtani and Cozart. I think that's the end of that for this off season. 

No big name pitcher, no big trade for Yellich, no first baseman that isn't going to be full time. Nope, if anything some boring utility player at most, maybe a retread cast-off bullpen arm. 

Nothing to get excited about, it's time to sober up and be ready for spring training. 

Edited December 20, 2017 by Blarg

[Mark68]

I'm definitely not opposed to trading prospects in certain situations. Prospects for a rental? Not unless that rental is a really good one--a difference-maker.

However, trading prospects for someone who is club-controlled at a fixed cost for multiple years (and improves the team now and for the next few years)? Sign me the fuck up.

Archer, Duffy, Cole--these are guys I would want us trading prospects for.

[Second Base]

I think you keep prospects that fill the needs of your team and deal ones that come from a position of strength.

For example, Jahmai Jones. He's going to be a good starting major league OF and he'll be ready in 1-2 years. Our current OF's are under team control through 2020 at the earliest. So unless they plan on trading Kole Calhoun, Jahmai Jones is expendable. The Angels may need a couple in 2021 and 2022, but they have Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh for that. 

Jaime Barria, Griffin Canning, Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh...you don't trade those unless you're getting a mid-20's Miguel Cabrera.

[Stradling]

15 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think you keep prospects that fill the needs of your team and deal ones that come from a position of strength.

For example, Jahmai Jones. He's going to be a good starting major league OF and he'll be ready in 1-2 years. Our current OF's are under team control through 2020 at the earliest. So unless they plan on trading Kole Calhoun, Jahmai Jones is expendable. The Angels may need a couple in 2021 and 2022, but they have Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh for that. 

Jaime Barria, Griffin Canning, Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh...you don't trade those unless you're getting a mid-20's Miguel Cabrera.

Or a Yelich

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Not sure how anyone who's been paying attention to the Angels the last ten years isn't completely amazed at how quickly he's been able to turn this mess around....  

 

Great post all around, but wanted to give this in particular an amen. I dont knoe how good our farm is or isnt, but the last two drafts in particular sound very promising...which i havent gotten the feeling since the trout draft...which was close to a decade ago now.

Personally, i say for now hold the prospects. Fill the gaps with money. My only concern is that from what i know (next to nothing), we dont have much in terms of pitching or infield prospects. I know we just traded for the braves guys, but i thought i read they didnt do as well as hoped in the minors so far. Not a huge deal, i know theyre super young. But aside from grooming one of the outfield guys to potentially replace trout (uptin is locked in, and calhoun i think we can replace when the time comes), id look into moving some of our minors depth to get us more balance.

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

At the end of the day it's about timing.  How good is your team right now.  How good will they be next year.  How good is your competition.  How good will they be next year.  How much time are you getting from the player acquired.  How close is the player you are giving up to contributing.  

 

Good point on the how good is the competition. It was weird when we went from a decade of dominance (no ring aside, but the mid 2000s team was amazing...both in talent, and how much home grown talent we produced), to seeing texas seemingly come out of nowhere.

But i think they had to have been waiting for our core to breakup, and timed their "go for it" accordingly. Hopefully we are doing the same, keeping an eye on when houston gets expensive.

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, Blarg said:

I think people are getting a little giddy on the off season acquisitions and want to go full shit faced drunk spending.

Upton, Ohtani, Kinsler and Cozart aquired? Hey let's get every big name player you can think of and deplete the farm because that always works out! 

 

Not to mention upton is the only one we kind of know what to expect. Ohtani is a huge ?. Cozart can revert and be cowart with pop, and kinsler could xontinue to regress.

And richard/heaney/skaggs could all have huge setbacks.

If those things happen and we have no farm, and bloated payroll, were back to 2016.

[tomsred]

So who do you guys think does the best job at ranking the farm systems of all the MLB clubs?  Anybody want to take a stab at that?